CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals

[Roy H.]

For people who haven't studied the series as closely as nick, here's how Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph have matched up:

20 games played (10 wins, 10 losses each)

Pau:  17.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.8 turnovers, 48.2% FG% in 37.3 minutes

Randolph:  19.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 48.1% FG% in 30.4 minutes

In other words, Randolph scores more points and grabs more rebounds, despite playing seven fewer minutes per game.  This isn't an aberration over a couple games, either; it's been a pattern for several years.

Randolph has had some of the biggest games of his career against Pau, including a 43 points / 17 rebound game, and another game where he went for 42 / 12.  Since Gasol has moved to LA, Randolph has averaged 20.0 points and 13.7 rebounds, to Gasol's 15.3 points and 10.3 boards.

In other words:  Advantage Randolph.  (I fully expect people not to buy into Randolph trumping Gasol, but head to head, that's exactly what has happened.)

2 questions/requests

1) Are you sure Randolph was actually being guarded by Randolph there in most of those matchups and vice-versa?

2) What's the mins breakdown for Lewis/Boozer/Randolph/Dampier?

Yes, Pau was guarding Randolph is the vast majority of those games.  I spot-checked through old game recaps and play-by-play summaries.

The minutes summary, such that it is, is above.

And what about the Gasol/Randolph matchups?

I'm not sure what you're asking.  Randolph will match up with Gasol at PF.  I don't anticipate Gasol playing a lot of center in this series, but if he does, so much the better.

[StartOrien]

I by no means say this to say "Howard will dominate Duncan." I pointed out that their team already is severely lacking offensively, and their go-to, aging scorer has an extremely difficult matchup in Dwight Howard.

I have Byron Scott.

How do you prevent Howard fouling at a rate like he did against Charlotte and Atlanta when he is facing one of the top and smartest low post players?

While the playoffs are a different beast, Dwight's been able to stay out of trouble against Timmay. In 12 contests against eachother averaging slightly under 35 minutes per game he's averaged 3.8 fouls per game.

Last year

Cha regular season:  4.0
    Playoffs: 5.5

plus 1.5

Atl regular season 3.5
     playoff 4.0

plus .5



His fouls go up in the playoffs (except when the refs decide to look the other way against Boston)


So, is it wrong to expect an upward trend of around 1 foul?

Ha. That seems like a Texas-sized use of the parenthesis. So in 2 preceeding rounds his fouls went up, but in the other, more important series, his fouls were actually down from the regular season despite his minutes going up.

No, I don't think thats a trend. If anything, we expect the refs to look the other way more. "The man" can't market Tim Duncan.

[Who]

So we have ...

Coaches

Denver - Larry Brown
Phoenix - Byron Scott

Utah - Gregg Popovich
Sacramento - Paul Westphal

[Roy H.]

Two interesting tidbits out of "real life" Houston today:

1.  Houston offered Dampier a two year deal.  If Daryl Morey thinks he can still play, he can play;

2.  Here's Houston's plan for Yao:

The Rockets plan to limit center Yao Ming to 24 minutes per game this season.

There will be no exceptions, once the All-Star center reaches his limit he'll be removed from the game.

"Twenty-four is his number all year," trainer Keith Jones said. "Playoffs come, things could change. We're trying to get him through April.

"We're trying to give him the best chance to play the whole season by limiting stress. Even practices, if we play on Monday and play again on Wednesday, can he practice on Tuesday? No. He'll practice, but he won't scrimmage."

Yao also is likely to be held out of the second half of back-to-backs.

24 minutes per game, "all year".  Why?  Because Houston's training staff is "trying to get him through April".  That doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement of Yao's health.  In fact, it sounds like the Rockets are very, very concerned that Yao's health isn't going to get better during the course of the year at all.

[wdleehi]

I by no means say this to say "Howard will dominate Duncan." I pointed out that their team already is severely lacking offensively, and their go-to, aging scorer has an extremely difficult matchup in Dwight Howard.

I have Byron Scott.

How do you prevent Howard fouling at a rate like he did against Charlotte and Atlanta when he is facing one of the top and smartest low post players?

While the playoffs are a different beast, Dwight's been able to stay out of trouble against Timmay. In 12 contests against eachother averaging slightly under 35 minutes per game he's averaged 3.8 fouls per game.

Last year

Cha regular season:  4.0
    Playoffs: 5.5

plus 1.5

Atl regular season 3.5
     playoff 4.0

plus .5



His fouls go up in the playoffs (except when the refs decide to look the other way against Boston)


So, is it wrong to expect an upward trend of around 1 foul?

Ha. That seems like a Texas-sized use of the parenthesis. So in 2 preceeding rounds his fouls went up, but in the other, more important series, his fouls were actually down from the regular season despite his minutes going up.

No, I don't think thats a trend. If anything, we expect the refs to look the other way more. "The man" can't market Tim Duncan.

Is that a shock when he can give Davis a concussion and not get called?  Or give Daniels a concussion and not get called.  

[indeedproceed]

For people who haven't studied the series as closely as nick, here's how Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph have matched up:

20 games played (10 wins, 10 losses each)

Pau:  17.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.8 turnovers, 48.2% FG% in 37.3 minutes

Randolph:  19.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 48.1% FG% in 30.4 minutes

In other words, Randolph scores more points and grabs more rebounds, despite playing seven fewer minutes per game.  This isn't an aberration over a couple games, either; it's been a pattern for several years.

Randolph has had some of the biggest games of his career against Pau, including a 43 points / 17 rebound game, and another game where he went for 42 / 12.  Since Gasol has moved to LA, Randolph has averaged 20.0 points and 13.7 rebounds, to Gasol's 15.3 points and 10.3 boards.

In other words:  Advantage Randolph.  (I fully expect people not to buy into Randolph trumping Gasol, but head to head, that's exactly what has happened.)

2 questions/requests

1) Are you sure Randolph was actually being guarded by Randolph there in most of those matchups and vice-versa?

2) What's the mins breakdown for Lewis/Boozer/Randolph/Dampier?

Yes, Pau was guarding Randolph is the vast majority of those games.  I spot-checked through old game recaps and play-by-play summaries.

The minutes summary, such that it is, is above.

And what about the Gasol/Randolph matchups?

I'm not sure what you're asking.  Randolph will match up with Gasol at PF.  I don't anticipate Gasol playing a lot of center in this series, but if he does, so much the better.

You answered my question than asked me what my question is.

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Dons, how are you feeling about Robin Lopez logging 20 mins a night on Carlos Boozer?

[Donoghus]

Two interesting tidbits out of "real life" Houston today:

1.  Houston offered Dampier a two year deal.  If Daryl Morey thinks he can still play, he can play;

2.  Here's Houston's plan for Yao:

The Rockets plan to limit center Yao Ming to 24 minutes per game this season.

There will be no exceptions, once the All-Star center reaches his limit he'll be removed from the game.

"Twenty-four is his number all year," trainer Keith Jones said. "Playoffs come, things could change. We're trying to get him through April.

"We're trying to give him the best chance to play the whole season by limiting stress. Even practices, if we play on Monday and play again on Wednesday, can he practice on Tuesday? No. He'll practice, but he won't scrimmage."

Yao also is likely to be held out of the second half of back-to-backs.

24 minutes per game, "all year".  Why?  Because Houston's training staff is "trying to get him through April".  That doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement of Yao's health.  In fact, it sounds like the Rockets are very, very concerned that Yao's health isn't going to get better during the course of the year at all.

So I was at 25-28 minutes with Yao to break him in.  Oh well, off by a couple of minutes.

Getting him through April (aka through the regular season) sounds awfully familar.  That was my strategy to begin with.

Like I said before, using Yao with caution in the regular season.  We're done with that.  Its May now and we have the #2 seed and HCA in this series.  

Statements like that from the health staff is what you'd pretty much expect for a guy coming back from  a missed season.  I don't really think that's a new development one bit.

They're easing him in and making sure he's healthy come playoff time.  Same strategy I took.

Its not lack of confidence, its exercised caution by the organization.  That's reasonable enough to me.

[Roy H.]

Two interesting tidbits out of "real life" Houston today:

1.  Houston offered Dampier a two year deal.  If Daryl Morey thinks he can still play, he can play;

2.  Here's Houston's plan for Yao:

The Rockets plan to limit center Yao Ming to 24 minutes per game this season.

There will be no exceptions, once the All-Star center reaches his limit he'll be removed from the game.

"Twenty-four is his number all year," trainer Keith Jones said. "Playoffs come, things could change. We're trying to get him through April.

"We're trying to give him the best chance to play the whole season by limiting stress. Even practices, if we play on Monday and play again on Wednesday, can he practice on Tuesday? No. He'll practice, but he won't scrimmage."

Yao also is likely to be held out of the second half of back-to-backs.

24 minutes per game, "all year".  Why?  Because Houston's training staff is "trying to get him through April".  That doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement of Yao's health.  In fact, it sounds like the Rockets are very, very concerned that Yao's health isn't going to get better during the course of the year at all.

So I was at 25-28 minutes with Yao to break him in.  Oh well, off by a couple of minutes.

Getting him through April (aka through the regular season) sounds awfully familar.  That was my strategy to begin with.

Like I said before, using Yao with caution in the regular season.  We're done with that.  Its May now and we have the #2 seed and HCA in this series.  

Statements like that from the health staff is what you'd pretty much expect for a guy coming back from  a missed season.  I don't really think that's a new development one bit.

They're easing him in and making sure he's healthy come playoff time.  Same strategy I took.

Its not lack of confidence, its exercised caution by the organization.  That's reasonable enough to me.

If Houston thought Yao was fully recovered -- or would be fully recovered by the end of the regular season -- they wouldn't be putting him on a *year long* minutes restriction of 24 minutes per game.

They're very concerned about Yao re-injuring himself.  They're praying that he stays healthy, but they have absolutely no confidence in that.  Also, I think it's unlikely that a guy immediately jumps from 24 minutes per game to playing 35 - 40 in the playoffs.

This is bad news for NBA fans, but very good news for the Fake Kings.  Spin it however you want -- it's your job -- but Yao isn't healthy, and Houston knows it.

[Roy H.]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

[Donoghus]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

"Elite" PFs don't bounce around from organiztion to organization.  Randolph is a very solid basketball player but I think we're kidding ourselves if we start labeling him as "elite".

[Roy H.]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

"Elite" PFs don't bounce around from organiztion to organization.  Randolph is a very solid basketball player but I think we're kidding ourselves if we start labeling him as "elite".

He was the 3rd leading rebounder in the entire NBA, and was 4th among PFs in scoring.  You don't consider that "elite"?

[Roy H.]

Fun times:  I just found this desperate plea from a Rockets fan, asking why Yao Ming can't guard Carlos Boozer:

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070518153535AApyQp1

[indeedproceed]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

"Elite" PFs don't bounce around from organiztion to organization.  Randolph is a very solid basketball player but I think we're kidding ourselves if we start labeling him as "elite".

He was the 3rd leading rebounder in the entire NBA, and was 4th among PFs in scoring.  You don't consider that "elite"?

Elite and Crazy are not mutually exclusive. See: Dennis Rodman

[Donoghus]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

"Elite" PFs don't bounce around from organiztion to organization.  Randolph is a very solid basketball player but I think we're kidding ourselves if we start labeling him as "elite".

He was the 3rd leading rebounder in the entire NBA, and was 4th among PFs in scoring.  You don't consider that "elite"?

I'm not going to get into the whole semantics battle.  We already saw that go down earlier this draft.

Randolph has more years in the league than playoff games played.  9 years v. 8 playoff games.

And he only started 4 of those games.  He hasn't sniffed the playoffs since '02-03.  I don't think thats purely by coincidence.

To me, you need to have some sort of track record in the postseason before I'm throwing the "Elite" label out here.  A 7 year drought and single digit playoff games played doesn't do it for me, sorry.

[Roy H.]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

"Elite" PFs don't bounce around from organiztion to organization.  Randolph is a very solid basketball player but I think we're kidding ourselves if we start labeling him as "elite".

He was the 3rd leading rebounder in the entire NBA, and was 4th among PFs in scoring.  You don't consider that "elite"?

I'm not going to get into the whole semantics battle.  We already saw that go down earlier this draft.

Randolph has more years in the league than playoff games played.  9 years v. 8 playoff games.

And he only started 4 of those games.  He hasn't sniffed the playoffs since '02-03.  I don't think thats purely by coincidence.

To me, you need to have some sort of track record in the postseason before I'm throwing the "Elite" label out here.  A 7 year drought and single digit playoff games played doesn't do it for me, sorry.

I hope playoff games aren't the be all and end all, because I'm not sure that Yao's proven ability to lose in the first round, or Gallinari's / Casspi's / Calderon's ability to never make the playoffs is really a point in your favor.

Outside of Gasol, your starting lineup has been out of the first round exactly once.  Are Yao's 28 career playoff games really anything to write home about?  (For the sake of comparison, KG played 26 playoff games in 2008 alone.)