CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals

[Gainesville Celtic]

Phoenix,

Please analyze the Howard/Duncan and Davis/Westbrook matchups.  Will the winner of those battles win the series, or will another factor be the deciding one?

I'll break this down into to parts, because the analysis of these two matchups is admittedly very important.

That being said, I don't believe it's the whole matchup. Denver, while very well constructed, IMO has some serious question marks about their team. I think some of our thoughts on players being 'a nice player' clouds some of the realities.

And those perceptions cloud the fact that while Denver is a very talented team, filled with nice players, they're really going to struggle to score

Taj Gibson last season averaged 12 points in 27 minutes. His backup Darrell Arthur, who is coming off a pretty serious injury that cost him 4 months, in 2 seasons averages 17.8 minutes per game and 5.6 points.

Trevor Ariza has shown us the type of player he is when the scoring burden lies on him: Shooting .394, and doubling his career average in turnovers to 2 per game. Even with the near 15 points per game he averaged last season, Ariza averages below 9 points per game. He's backed up by Josh Childress, whose been across seas for the past year, and the defensive minded Ronnie Brewer.

Marcus Thornton definitely showed a strong ability to score, there's no doubt about that averaging 20 points per 36. But you'd also have to be concerned about a sophmore slump, and I think he'll be heavily discouraged by the elite defensive ability of Wesley Matthews

That puts a huge scoring burden on Russell Westbrook (whose far from the world's greatest shooter, career fg% .408) and we'd really be challenging him to shoot.

And a noticeably aging Tim Duncan who had career lows in minutes, points, rebounds, blocked shots and field goal attempts. Whose going against the leagues best defensive player in Dwight Howard.

In addition to being busy, 9 pages of back-and-forth is just too much. I'd suggest next year we just have each team present an argument on why they'd win, maybe 1 round of rebutall and THAT'S IT. Open a different thread for (a) the GMs to make 2 posts each; and (b) for 8-9 pages of the discussions of the finer points of Calderon's defensive prowess and Video Game Dwight Howard's skillzz..

DENVER
Westbrook/Blake/D.Gibson
Thornton/R. Brewer
Ariza/Childress
Gibson/Arthur
Duncan/Milicic/A.Gray

PHOENIX
Davis/T. Williams
Matthews/Fernandez/Dom. Jones
Salmons/Turkoglu/D.Stevenson
Jamison/Monroe
Dw.Howard/Ed Davis/Koufos


Why Denver will win
----------------
1. Poise -- Duncan and Ariza have rings; Westbrook was the best player on the floor in at least one of OKC's 1st round playoff games vs. LAL. Howard (as we've seen vs. the Celtics) is a dominant player, but also has a tendency to disappear for long stretches of the game/series.


2. Defense wins titles -- PHO has a great offensive squad. But we have great defenders at the positions they're strongest at: B-Diddy won't intimidate or back down Westbrook; Ariza will be all up  in Salmons; Childress is long enough to take away any Turkoglu mismatches; Duncan-Milicic-Arthur-Gray will slow Howard and frustrate him with skill (duncan, milicic), fouls (milicic, gray) and bulk (arthur -- who like Powe and Baby have the combo of toughness + a low center of gravity to pester Howard). Arthur missed the first 2/3 of the season but played 21 mpg in April.


3. We have ENOUGH offense --- WAY too much has been made of our supposed "lack of scoring".

--Duncan and WB will score 20pts + each (BDavis isn't a "defender" and If Westbrook could score 20ppg w/o a jumpshot vs LAL this year in the playoffs he can score 20ppg on Davis + Fernandez!);

--Ariza and Thornton will score 15-18/each; Gibson 8-10 pts.

That's 75-80 points from our starters + 15/20 from the bench (Childress, Blake, Milicic, D.Gibson, Brewer). We think we can easily hold PHO to 85-90 and win in the last 3-4 mins.


4. Hack-a-Dwight --- Dwight's defense isn't gonna help in the last 5 mins of the game (well 3 mins before the last 2 when we'll build a little lead), when we just hack him, slow the game down, let Duncan do his thing. Dwight is MUCH less effective when he's disengaged on the offensive end via fouls.


Why Phoenix will win
----------------
1. They won't

2. Their hype machine blows up the Denver areana causing us to forfiet.

3. Davis dominates like he *can* and keeps Howard in the game consistently.  This hasn't happened yet in Dwigth's career, but I believe Davis is one of the few PGs who could do that for DHoward.




2 TPs to StartOrien for putting together a great team; -1 TP for going a bit overboard on the hype

[StartOrien]

Blast Gainsville, unfortunate timing for us it loooks like. Don't think we'll get the chance to have much back and forth.

My hype machine, no doubt has been full effect.

Answering like two questions, Kosta Koufos mix tape, youtube video of someone playing Tim Duncan vs. Dwight Howard in 2k8. Just non-stop hype

I'm legitimately suprised on this, but Westbrook doesn't play well against B-Diddy. 6 games, 11.5 points, .333 fg%. That's your number 2 scoring option, your number 1 scoring option is going up against Dwight Howard.

EDIT: Fernandez will never be covering Westbrook.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Blast Gainsville, unfortunate timing for us it loooks like. Don't think we'll get the chance to have much back and forth.

My hype machine, no doubt has been full effect.

Answering like two questions, Kosta Koufos mix tape, youtube video of someone playing Tim Duncan vs. Dwight Howard in 2k8. Just non-stop hype

I'm legitimately suprised on this, but Westbrook doesn't play well against B-Diddy. 6 games, 11.5 points, .333 fg%. That's your number 2 scoring option, your number 1 scoring option is going up against Dwight Howard.

EDIT: Fernandez will never be covering Westbrook.

Sorry SO, just been busy today.... just bustin' chops on the hype.

Davis v. Westbrook --- Pretty small sample size... 6 games ... 1 was a OKC win where WB played 21 mins and scored 2 pts; 1 game was WB's 11th professional game where he didn't start and still got 10 pts.

Davis also has a significant history of back injuries and being overweight (which i hope he can get under control since he's an anchor on my 17-team Roto league)

in 12 games vs. DHoward, Duncan has gone for 21/11/3 + 2 blocks.


After everything though, i think most agree Defense wins short series where a coach like Larry Brown can scheme against Diddy, Turkoglu, and DHoward. I'm scared as a Celtics fan when we play ORL b/c of Howard (I live 2 hrs north and go to the games) but i'm consistently surprised how often he's taken out of the flow of the game --- for whatever reason (fouls, poor offense,etc).

Howard SHOULD always dominate. But SHOULD and DOES are 2 very different things.

TP again, StartOrien (hey, Orien is from the same town as me!!)

[StartOrien]

BDavis isn't a "defender" and If Westbrook could score 20ppg w/o a jumpshot vs LAL this year in the playoffs he can score 20ppg on Davis + Fernandez!);

Your central point is that b/c Westbrook could put up big numbers on Derek Fisher he should be able to do so against Baron Davis? B-Diddy isn't an elite defender, but he's leagues better than fish.

[Donoghus]

Why Utah wins this series

-  SIZE...SIZE...SIZE.  We have 7 footers up the wazoo.  We have 6 foot 10 SFs.  My starting PG is 6'3".  We all saw what size did in these past playoffs with BOS & LA's sucesses.  The teams that had success had size, especially upfront.   These guys can play defense and can rebound both offensively & defensively

-  Shooting.  We have guys that can knock it down from the outside.  Gallinari, Calderon, Casspi.  All can hit the long-range jumpers. All shoot at respectable percentages.  If defenses want to collapse on Yao & Gasol, we'll make 'em pay with kickouts to the outside.

-  Our big men can shoot.  We can make life a living hell for Sacramento's big men.  Our big guys can hit their jumpers.  Create space in the paint by drawing out their defense.  Yao & Gasol will exploit the defensive deficiencies in Boozer & Randolph's games. 

-  Team Defense.  We can mix & match units that can supply solid team defense in any package. Contrary to the propaganda machine, we got guys who will make life very difficult for Rose if he tries to take it inside. We have a multi-faceted stopper in Mbah a Moute.  We have shotblockers in Ming & Gasol. 

I know many of you are set one way or the other on Yao.  I just ask that you reflect on the fact that this Utah team secured the #2 seed in the regular season while easing Yao back into game shape and that we’ve advanced a round in the playoffs so far.  That has to tell you that we’re playing with an effective Yao Ming here.  Hopefully, you take that into consideration.

Rose/Calderon doesn’t occur in a vaccum.   There’s a thing called team defense. Derrick Rose isn’t all-world. If he was, how come he's not mentioned in the same breath as Williams/CP3?  He has his struggles.   If we force him to stay outside and stick to his jumper, he’ll have plenty of misses.   I think we have the complementary defense around Calderon to minimize any damage Rose can do.  Sure he’ll score but it will not be at will.  Take a look at the H2H too.  It’s not what would be described as lopsided.   Calderon will do fine with a great team defense behind him.   Great defensive systems compensate for weaknesses.  Think Jameer Nelson and Orlando.  Don’t buy into the exaggerations and hyperbole here.

Yao & Gasol will cause fits on the offensive end for Boozer and Randolph.  Too much size and skill.   Zach Randolph is not a world stopper on the defensive end.  Carlos Boozer is not a world stopper on the defensive end.  Yao and Gasol are gonna get their points.  The size will get to Boozer & Randolph.  Make no doubts about it.  We will hurt them in the half court.  If you’re relying on Zach Randolph to get your defensive stops, you’re in trouble. 

We have one of the best coaches in today’s NBA going up against….Paul Westphal?  Huge advantage to Utah.  Westphal is still hanging his hat on the fact that he took a Charles Barkley-led team to the NBA Finals 17 years ago.   The man hasn’t won a playoff series since 1995!!  This is a mismatch.

We have home-court advantage in the series.  That can’t be understated.  If you’re on the fence and think its going 7 games, think about the fact that 106 series have gone 7 games and the road team has only won 21 times.  Combine that with the fact that you have Gregg Popovich going against Paul Westphal?  The odds are certainly in Utah’s favor that Pops will lead them to victory.

That’s why, in the end, Utah should win this series.

[Donoghus]

I gotta run out for a bit.

I'll address any questions & concerns when I get back.

I am not ducking anyone.  Trust me.

[Lucky17]

Again, I don't have time to reflect on these matchups very long, so I have to go with initial reactions.

Phoenix over Denver. If Denver had a more skilled backup to help against Dwight, and perhaps had HCA, I'd have gone the other way. Baron Davis vs. Russell Westbrook looks like a great one-on-one matchup.

Sacramento over Utah. Rose will have his way with Calderon, and the Kings' talented frontcourt rotation will hold up against Utah's Twin Tower attack.

[Roy H.]

Thanks, Lucky.

For anybody who doesn't have time to read through the thread, here's a summary of my arguments:

Here's my argument, as concise as possible:

Randolph has killed Pau, both in terms of scoring and rebounding.  Boozer has played a healthy Yao even offensively, and has killed him on the boards (and let's remember, Yao *isn't* healthy, and he's 30 years old).  Rose is MUCH better than Jose Calderon or Willie Green.  At the wings, the starting lineups are about even.  Sacramento has much better depth at almost every position.

In other words, Sacramento should win, and fairly handily. 


In bullet point form:

• Yao isn't going to be 100%, not coming off an entire season that he missed due to injury.  He's had two foot surgeries, and was recently contemplating retirement. Today, Houston indicated they have concerns about him making it to April (i.e., the playoffs) so they're putting him on a hard cap of 24 minutes per game.  Yao = not healthy.
• Even when Yao has been healthy, Boozer has played him evenly offensively, and has destroyed him on the boards
• Zach Randolph owns Pau Gasol in head to head matchups.  Randolph has had more success than should have been expected in winning games against Pau, too.
• The wing positions are pretty even, but Casspi is playing out of position.
• Jose Calderon is the worst defensive PG in the NBA, and is a bench player in "real life".  He can't handle more than 30 minutes per game, and his backup is Willie Green.  Willie Green is not a point guard.
• Utah has no backup SG, either.  Danilo Gallinari is not a shooting guard.
• Derrick Rose has had playoff success against both the Boston and Cleveland defenses.  He's licking his chops looking at Jose Calderon.

Once you get past the fact that the Yao/Gasol vs. Boozer/Randolph battle has actually favored Boozer/Randolph, there's no way that Utah can win.  Utah has huge issues with its PG and with its bench, and the only way it can make up for those issues is by winning the front court battle by a wide margin.  They just can't do that.

[Donoghus]

Contrary to belief, Utah actually has a perimeter game that complements their superior frontcourt.  Plenty of outside shooting.  Not a one trick pony.  

Don't be fooled into thinking its "Twin Towers" and no one else.  Gallinari, Casspi, and Calderon can all stroke it.  Just look at the shooting percentages.  This team will score.  

And we don't have a bonafide "team cancer". 

[action781]

So, at the moment, I plan to vote Utah.  I haven't read the whole thread (the first page had a lot), but these are my reasons why.  They are mostly, unfortunately, critiques on Roy's arguments.

Also, this is a series where Rashard Lewis will be playing some power forward.  Rashard played very good defense on Pau during the 2009 NBA Finals, and exploded in a couple of games offensively.

Also, drawing Gasol out of the paint opens up things even further for Rose to drive inside.  A hobbled Yao just can't defend the paint by himself any more.  Rose / Boozer would kill him with the pick-and-roll.

I think it sounded brilliant originally to play Lewis as much as possible at PF.  Instead of pulling Gasol out to the 3 point line though, I think it actually puts Yao on the bench.  You said yourself Yao can't last, so why wouldn't Utah give him needed rest at these times, put Gasol on Sacramento's psuedo-center, and throw Mbah a Moute on Lewis: Advantage Utah here.  But, you can exploit this Randolph/Gasol matchup you've been praising while giving your deep 3 position deserved minutes, but it unfortunately puts your best player on the bench:  Advantage I think Sac.  I actually am completely torn on who this situation benefits overall.

----------------------------------

Why the Kings win:

"Offense sells tickets, Defense wins games, Rebounding wins championships." - Pat Summit

You just quoted a women's college basketball coach here as to why the Kings would win a men's professional basketball league.  I like playful jokes in this contest, but I got the feeling you were actually using this as serious.  Correct me if I'm wrong!  If you were serious though, it's just completely moot to me.

--------------------------------------

Green is going to have to play, at minimum, 18, and probably closer to 23.  That's a HUGE advantage for the Kings.

I don't see why at all.  Calderon played 30 and 34 mpg the two previous seasons and his minutes were reduced this year because the Raptors had a very viable option as a backup pg.  With a lesser option at pg in Utah, I say Calderon plays 30-34 minutes without much question.

And in 6 career matchups, Rose has done all BUT dominate Calderon!  

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=caldejo01&p2=rosede01

-------------------------------------

Once you get past the fact that the Yao/Gasol vs. Boozer/Randolph battle has actually favored Boozer/Randolph, there's no way that Utah can win.

So, when I started reading this and saw your previous stats, I thought... "interesting".  Then I realized, "wait, gasol kinda owned boozer in the '10 playoffs"  and "wait, why can't yao guard randolph? i feel like he'd do a phenominal job on him"  If I ran Utah, I'd switch up these matchups... Roy doesn't get to pick my matchups for me!!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boozeca01&p2=gasolpa01

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=randoza01&p2=mingya01

Turns out that Boozer and Gasol have played eachother almost dead even statistically over their 15 game careers (with Gasol a 10-5 record and not often on the better team) [edit: and also recently outplaying him in '10 playoffs].  Yao has actually dominated Randolph.  The ppg, fg%, and blocks per game tell me a lot about how this matchup will play out when they play eachother and it's heavily in Yao's favor.

[action781]

And no, Don did not pay me to do all that research, haha.  It just happened that I felt inside that some of this was wrong or twisted somehow and I felt compelled to do some research myself.

If you can answer those points though, Roy, my vote is still open to be swayed.  I'm still not convinced with the effectiveness of Utah's wings vs. yours.  Just Don hasn't given me anything that doesn't seem right to me that's worth researching.

[jgod213]

ok my votes are in, i gotta bounce but i'll quickly reflect on my votes in the West:

Pheonix over Denver

I love Denver's crop of talent from starters-through bench at PG/SG/SF, but unfortunately i think it may be a year or two away.  Howard has a BIIIG series here.  Duncan battles but just doesn't quite have what it takes here.  Denver contends for a crown year after year if everyone progresses properly, if they keep this squad together, and if it finds Duncan's eventual replacement.

Sactown over Utah

11th hour decision for me.  I wasn't all that high on Utah to begin with but it's reeeeal tough to pick against a Gasol/Ming frontcourt.  What swung my vote is my lack of confidence in the trio of Danilo/Casspi/Calderon to step into the moment and the big series from D-Rose that seems unavoidable.  Randolph finally proves he can help a team advance when it matters.



Great teams fellas, i always hate dissapointing someone but that's the way of the game.  Have a good night all.

[Fafnir]

I think there is a lot more to being an NBA big man than points and rebounds. I think those things, passing, defense, help defense, shot blocking, etc all mean that you can't just add up points and rebounds and decide who has the better front court.

That's why I'm leaning towards Utah. I think Gasol and Yao would be a better front court that Boozer/Randolph, I also think that Robin Lopez will allow Yao to rest and gives Utah the best 3 man big rotation.

Add in a decided coaching advantage, home court advantage, and a varied roster I don't think Sacramento can overcome it with their main advantage of Rose over Calderon.

[Who]

If I am Utah, I put Pau Gasol on Boozer and Yao on Z.Randolph.

Pau Gasol's length bothers Boozer more than Randolph + Randolph is more physical and is the more aggressive shot-creator (one-on-one) in the post than Boozer which bothers Gasol more.

As for Yao, Boozer is a very tough matchup for him and a very intelligent and efficient offensive player. Randolph is less dependable and has more issues with scoring efficiency. I'd rather take my chances on Randolph. He'll have a couple of big games but he'll be more up and down than Boozer would.

I think while those two are on the floor together with Derrick Rose ... I think that they can play Pau and Yao to a standstill + that Rose will have an advantage at the point which will lead to Sacramento outplaying the Jazz. By forcing Yao to guard one of those guys plus having D-Rose attack him in the pick and roll ... Sacramento will turn Yao Ming into a defensive liability and gain the advantage.

While Dampier is on the floor, against Yao + Pau, the Jazz have the advantage by a good margin. 

[Donoghus]

So, at the moment, I plan to vote Utah.  I haven't read the whole thread (the first page had a lot), but these are my reasons why.  They are mostly, unfortunately, critiques on Roy's arguments.

Also, this is a series where Rashard Lewis will be playing some power forward.  Rashard played very good defense on Pau during the 2009 NBA Finals, and exploded in a couple of games offensively.

Also, drawing Gasol out of the paint opens up things even further for Rose to drive inside.  A hobbled Yao just can't defend the paint by himself any more.  Rose / Boozer would kill him with the pick-and-roll.

I think it sounded brilliant originally to play Lewis as much as possible at PF.  Instead of pulling Gasol out to the 3 point line though, I think it actually puts Yao on the bench.  You said yourself Yao can't last, so why wouldn't Utah give him needed rest at these times, put Gasol on Sacramento's psuedo-center, and throw Mbah a Moute on Lewis: Advantage Utah here.  But, you can exploit this Randolph/Gasol matchup you've been praising while giving your deep 3 position deserved minutes, but it unfortunately puts your best player on the bench:  Advantage I think Sac.  I actually am completely torn on who this situation benefits overall.

----------------------------------

Why the Kings win:

"Offense sells tickets, Defense wins games, Rebounding wins championships." - Pat Summit

You just quoted a women's college basketball coach here as to why the Kings would win a men's professional basketball league.  I like playful jokes in this contest, but I got the feeling you were actually using this as serious.  Correct me if I'm wrong!  If you were serious though, it's just completely moot to me.

--------------------------------------

Green is going to have to play, at minimum, 18, and probably closer to 23.  That's a HUGE advantage for the Kings.

I don't see why at all.  Calderon played 30 and 34 mpg the two previous seasons and his minutes were reduced this year because the Raptors had a very viable option as a backup pg.  With a lesser option at pg in Utah, I say Calderon plays 30-34 minutes without much question.

And in 6 career matchups, Rose has done all BUT dominate Calderon!  

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=caldejo01&p2=rosede01

-------------------------------------

Once you get past the fact that the Yao/Gasol vs. Boozer/Randolph battle has actually favored Boozer/Randolph, there's no way that Utah can win.

So, when I started reading this and saw your previous stats, I thought... "interesting".  Then I realized, "wait, gasol kinda owned boozer in the '10 playoffs"  and "wait, why can't yao guard randolph? i feel like he'd do a phenominal job on him"  If I ran Utah, I'd switch up these matchups... Roy doesn't get to pick my matchups for me!!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boozeca01&p2=gasolpa01

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=randoza01&p2=mingya01

Turns out that Boozer and Gasol have played eachother almost dead even statistically over their 15 game careers (with Gasol a 10-5 record and not often on the better team) [edit: and also recently outplaying him in '10 playoffs].  Yao has actually dominated Randolph.  The ppg, fg%, and blocks per game tell me a lot about how this matchup will play out when they play eachother and it's heavily in Yao's favor.

Thanks for the well researched post, action.

I hope people take the time to check the links and especially take notice of the Rose/Calderon matchup and realize its not lopsided like I'm been saying all day.