CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals

[Roy H.]

Boozer and Randolph are going to struggle defensively against Gasol & Yao' offensive games.  No bones about it.

And yet, history tells us that Randolph has destroyed Gasol in 20 H2H matchups.  There's a huge statistical disparity, which would be even bigger except that several of those games came earlier in Randolph's career, when he was playing 10 minutes per game.  Head to head, Randolph > Gasol.

Also head to head, Boozer has had no issue playing against a healthy Pau; he scores evenly with him, and dominates him on the boards.  Again, advantage Sacramento, or at worst, a push.

If Dampier is shadowing Lopez, fine.  As we saw in last year's playoff, Robin Lopez is a grinder down low.  Lots of hustle and a bonafide headache.  He's provide strong defense and muscle and I anticipate him to work the glass just fine.

Well, you'll be able to shut down most of Dampier's refined offensive game, I'll give you that.

[StartOrien]

Phoenix,

Please analyze the Howard/Duncan and Davis/Westbrook matchups.  Will the winner of those battles win the series, or will another factor be the deciding one?

I'll break this down into to parts, because the analysis of these two matchups is admittedly very important.

That being said, I don't believe it's the whole matchup. Denver, while very well constructed, IMO has some serious question marks about their team. I think some of our thoughts on players being 'a nice player' clouds some of the realities.

And those perceptions cloud the fact that while Denver is a very talented team, filled with nice players, they're really going to struggle to score

Taj Gibson last season averaged 12 points in 27 minutes. His backup Darrell Arthur, who is coming off a pretty serious injury that cost him 4 months, in 2 seasons averages 17.8 minutes per game and 5.6 points.

Trevor Ariza has shown us the type of player he is when the scoring burden lies on him: Shooting .394, and doubling his career average in turnovers to 2 per game. Even with the near 15 points per game he averaged last season, Ariza averages below 9 points per game. He's backed up by Josh Childress, whose been across seas for the past year, and the defensive minded Ronnie Brewer.

Marcus Thornton definitely showed a strong ability to score, there's no doubt about that averaging 20 points per 36. But you'd also have to be concerned about a sophmore slump, and I think he'll be heavily discouraged by the elite defensive ability of Wesley Matthews

That puts a huge scoring burden on Russell Westbrook (whose far from the world's greatest shooter, career fg% .408) and we'd really be challenging him to shoot.

And a noticeably aging Tim Duncan who had career lows in minutes, points, rebounds, blocked shots and field goal attempts. Whose going against the leagues best defensive player in Dwight Howard.

[Donoghus]

Alright, first of all, nice to see the propaganda and exaggeration wars are already at full tilt in both conferences.  That's come to be expected in this draft over the years.  If nothing more, it provides great entertainment value.

Let's face it.  Yao is the great divider in this thing.  I knew that would be the case the moment I decided to draft him in the 2nd round this year.  Some were gonna like the idea while others were going to hate. I figure I'd roll the dice and take the challenge.  I see these terms being floated around like "immobilized" or "ineffective".  I made it known in my division presser that the regular season was essentially a period to get Yao back to game shape and strength.  His minutes were going to be capped somewhere in the mid-20 range.  I figured this would help ease him into it since I figured my team would be good enough to compensate and net a playoff berth, nonetheless.  

Evidently, a lot of you saw the benefit in that and voted this Jazz team a #2 seed.  I saw that many of you even had me as a #1 seed.  I also saw others have me down at the #11 seed level.  That demonstrated to me that Yao was, indeed, the great divider here.  

So, i take it as being a #2 seed that my regular season "minute cap" strategy with Yao worked.  We have a relatively healthy and effective Yao. Only getting stronger and healthier as the season progressed and the farther away from injury.  Made it to the 2nd round so far.  That is my assumption and I hope the progess of this team so far illustrates that Yao must be healthy or else Utah might not be here.  My hope is that many of you see things in the same light.

Remember, this is playoff time.  We're in May now.  This isn't October/November Yao anymore.  He's had an additional 5-6 months of recovery and conditioning.  That's big.

He's had an additional 5-6 months of playing and banging.  Players generally get more injured as the season goes along, not less.

Agree or disagree:  Yao had demonstrated decline in his game, even before his two most recent foot surgeries and his lost season?

If your strategy is "you voted for me before, so why change now", I think you need to adjust.  Jose Calderon is curled up in the corner in a ball, weeping.  Willie Green has entered witness protection.  Neither is stopping Derrick Rose.

I think as all of us saw this past season, KG came back from a devastating injury and worked his way back.  He looked awful at times during the regular season but worked his way back and was actually playing at a decent clip in the playoffs.   The Finals hurt but he ran into a PF (who I have) that was playing at the top of his game.  KG used the regular season to get back into shape and it paid off in the playoffs.  I expect the same with Yao.

KG ran up against a buzzsaw in Gasol.  Sorry, but Zach Randolph is not a buzzsaw.  Yao will be very effective on the offensive end.

[Roy H.]

I think as all of us saw this past season, KG came back from a devastating injury and worked his way back.  He looked awful at times during the regular season but worked his way back and was actually playing at a decent clip in the playoffs.   The Finals hurt but he ran into a PF (who I have) that was playing at the top of his game.  KG used the regular season to get back into shape and it paid off in the playoffs.  I expect the same with Yao.

KG definitely was *not* the same player he was in 2008.  There was a very noticeable decline in his game, and even though he had some good series in the playoffs, he struggled at the end, as you admit.  Also, there's a HUGE difference between a bone spur and two foot surgeries and an entire season off, wouldn't you agree?

KG ran up against a buzzsaw in Gasol.  Sorry, but Zach Randolph is not a buzzsaw.

Randolph isn't a buzzsaw?  He has sure looked like one against Gasol in the past.  He's torched Pau for 40+ points multiple times, and the last four times they've met, Randolph has had 17, 10, 17, and 14 rebounds.

[Donoghus]

Point guard matchup?  Sure, I'll concede that to you.  Rose is the better player.  However, Calderon has more than held his own against Rose in the past save for their last meeting in April in the last week of the season when Toronto had clearly shut it down.  

I don't think its an lopsided as its made out to be, though. I think H2H would seem to illustrate that.  Calderon has managed to get his points if need be.  On Utah, he's being asked to be a facilitator on the offensive end so he's not engaging in a "mano a mano" affair with Rose.  Defensively, Calderon has struggled.  However, I wouldn't quite label him an automatic turnstile either.  What helps him out is the help defense provided in the paint.  Some very large bodies will be there when Rose attempts to drive the lane.  If he's backed out and setting for jumpers, I can certainly live with that.  His jumper isn't quite there yet and I think he'll miss his fair share of mid-range jumpers.  If we can get him to settle for outside looks, then I like our chances.

[Donoghus]

I think as all of us saw this past season, KG came back from a devastating injury and worked his way back.  He looked awful at times during the regular season but worked his way back and was actually playing at a decent clip in the playoffs.   The Finals hurt but he ran into a PF (who I have) that was playing at the top of his game.  KG used the regular season to get back into shape and it paid off in the playoffs.  I expect the same with Yao.

KG definitely was *not* the same player he was in 2008.  There was a very noticeable decline in his game, and even though he had some good series in the playoffs, he struggled at the end, as you admit.  Also, there's a HUGE difference between a bone spur and two foot surgeries and an entire season off, wouldn't you agree?

Who looked better last year?  The regular season KG or playoff KG?  The point was that as the season progressed, KG got stronger and better.  His minutes were limited by Doc.  The exact same approach I'm taking to Yao and I expect much of the same out of this situation as the KG situation this past season.  That's my approach to Yao.  

[Donoghus]

Another thing I really like is that I have shooters up the wazoo.

Gallinari, Calderon, Casspi to an extent.  I got guys who can hit from the outside if Sacramento decides to put all their focus into my two big guys. They want to collapse down low?  Fine, we'll kick it out and hit it from the outside.  We got shooters.

We're gonna score.  Whether its from the inside or the outside?  Its up to the defense but we're gonna get our points.

[StartOrien]

Question: I modified my last post to highlight my key points for people who are skimming (TRYING to practice what I preach). Do you think this is effective, or does it kind of come off as stat skewering?

[Who]

Roy, how many minutes do you expect out of Dampier?

I would expect him to shadow Lopez.  Boozer and Randolph will both be in the 38 to 41 minute range, meaning that Dampier probably sees around 15 minutes or so, plus or minus.  Obviously, if we need a big defensive stop, he'll be inserted in spot situations, as well.

Also, this is a series where Rashard Lewis will be playing some power forward. 

Can you give a breakdown of your big man minutes? I'm not quite sure how Lewis fits in here. If Lewis is playing PF, who does he play alongside and what combination does he play against?

Does Dampier still start? Or does he come off the bench and solely play against R.Lopez? (Plus, defensive possessions late in game)

[Donoghus]

Regarding Yao.

I have to imagine almost everyone here has already come up with their conclusion on him.  Not sure I can do any convincing one way or the other.   Basically, I just ask you to look at things at where they stand now, in the CB playoffs.  Where you anticipate Yao to be in 7-8 months, not now.  He's gonna be at training camp but I can almost guarantee he'll be better in those 7-8 months from now.  Playoff time, when it counts.  That's where we stand right now in the CB playoffs.

[StartOrien]

I understand this is dangerous waters Don, but you'd have a decent argument that even w/o Yao you could beat Roy. I don't agree with it, but it's another way to attack it for those who don't buy into Yao's health.

[Donoghus]

Also, I'd like to point out that Utah has homecourt advantage in this series.  I know many anticipate this to put a hotly contested series.  HCA shouldn't be understated.

[Roy H.]

I understand this is dangerous waters Don, but you'd have a decent argument that even w/o Yao you could beat Roy. I don't agree with it, but it's another way to attack it for those who don't buy into Yao's health.

I would relish that argument, because I think it would be a sweep if Yao was out.

[wdleehi]

Phoenix,

Please analyze the Howard/Duncan and Davis/Westbrook matchups.  Will the winner of those battles win the series, or will another factor be the deciding one?

I'll break this down into to parts, because the analysis of these two matchups is admittedly very important.

That being said, I don't believe it's the whole matchup. Denver, while very well constructed, IMO has some serious question marks about their team. I think some of our thoughts on players being 'a nice player' clouds some of the realities.

And those perceptions cloud the fact that while Denver is a very talented team, filled with nice players, they're really going to struggle to score

Taj Gibson last season averaged 12 points in 27 minutes. His backup Darrell Arthur, who is coming off a pretty serious injury that cost him 4 months, in 2 seasons averages 17.8 minutes per game and 5.6 points.

Trevor Ariza has shown us the type of player he is when the scoring burden lies on him: Shooting .394, and doubling his career average in turnovers to 2 per game. Even with the near 15 points per game he averaged last season, Ariza averages below 9 points per game. He's backed up by Josh Childress, whose been across seas for the past year, and the defensive minded Ronnie Brewer.

Marcus Thornton definitely showed a strong ability to score, there's no doubt about that averaging 20 points per 36. But you'd also have to be concerned about a sophmore slump, and I think he'll be heavily discouraged by the elite defensive ability of Wesley Matthews

That puts a huge scoring burden on Russell Westbrook (whose far from the world's greatest shooter, career fg% .408) and we'd really be challenging him to shoot.

And a noticeably aging Tim Duncan who had career lows in minutes, points, rebounds, blocked shots and field goal attempts. Whose going against the leagues best defensive player in Dwight Howard.

I need more then just "Duncan is going against Howard"

Duncan was 19 and 10 guy in the playoffs playing 37 minutes a game.  I see him more then capable of getting an overactive Howard into foul trouble enough in a 7 game series to knock him out.  


I need more.

[Donoghus]

For those of you that are taking coaching into consideration.

Gregg Popovich is 106-69 in the playoffs.  That's a .606 winning pct.  

Not too shabby.  The man knows how to coach on the biggest stage.