CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals

[Roy H.]

Roy, how many minutes do you expect out of Dampier?

I would expect him to shadow Lopez.  Boozer and Randolph will both be in the 38 to 41 minute range, meaning that Dampier probably sees around 15 minutes or so, plus or minus.  Obviously, if we need a big defensive stop, he'll be inserted in spot situations, as well.

Not that it matters all that much, but out of curiosity: Does he still start for your team?

Not in this series.  Boozer will start at center, where he has played very effectively against Yao in the past.  Boozer plays a healthy Yao even offensively, and crushes him on the boards.  I can't even imagine what he'll do against a hobbled, immobile Yao.

[jgod213]

Roy, i really like the depth that your team brings into this matchup at almost every position, and i agree that the PG situation will be a nightmare for Utah.

HOWEVER

I believe you yourself even mentioned that, if we're voting in Utah as the 2 seed, then we must be assuming a relatively solid bill of health for Yao.  Personally, i wasn't assuming this, but since the voters determined Utah deserved such a high seed, then i (and the rest of the league) must concede that Yao is pretty healthy.

Certainly Yao won't be his former self this year, but i still would imagine he would be comfortable shooting jumpers and hooks over Boozer.  I also don't see much of a rebounding advantage considering Utah's starting size at the 2-3-4-5 positions.  They should be able to keep a lot of balls alive on the glass.

[StartOrien]

I believe you yourself even mentioned that, if we're voting in Utah as the 2 seed, then we must be assuming a relatively solid bill of health for Yao.  Personally, i wasn't assuming this, but since the voters determined Utah deserved such a high seed, then i (and the rest of the league) must concede that Yao is pretty healthy.

They're a 2-3 seed matchup. Not a huge difference in how voters felt.

[Fafnir]

I believe you yourself even mentioned that, if we're voting in Utah as the 2 seed, then we must be assuming a relatively solid bill of health for Yao.  Personally, i wasn't assuming this, but since the voters determined Utah deserved such a high seed, then i (and the rest of the league) must concede that Yao is pretty healthy.

They're a 2-3 seed matchup. Not a huge difference in how voters felt.

The point that jgod is making, and that Roy made in the first round playoffs is that if Utah is the number two seed in the west Yao has to be pretty effective.

[Roy H.]

Roy, i really like the depth that your team brings into this matchup at almost every position, and i agree that the PG situation will be a nightmare for Utah.

HOWEVER

I believe you yourself even mentioned that, if we're voting in Utah as the 2 seed, then we must be assuming a relatively solid bill of health for Yao.  Personally, i wasn't assuming this, but since the voters determined Utah deserved such a high seed, then i (and the rest of the league) must concede that Yao is pretty healthy.

In talking with a number of voters, it seems like my assumption was wrong.  A lot of people who voted for Utah did not, in fact, presume a healthy Yao.  Also, nick brings up a good point:  it's actually more likely that Yao is going to be hurt later in the season than it is earlier.

Also, I think I said something like a reasonably healthy Yao.  That means he's playing, but at what level?  Kelly Dwyer ranked him the 12th best center in the NBA.  He's coming off two foot surgeries, and was recently talking about retirement.  We're definitely not going to see Yao at 100%.  65%, maybe, but certainly not 100%.

Certainly Yao won't be his former self this year, but i still would imagine he would be comfortable shooting jumpers and hooks over Boozer.  I also don't see much of a rebounding advantage considering Utah's starting size at the 2-3-4-5 positions.  They should be able to keep a lot of balls alive on the glass.

The rebounding advantage is a significant one.  Boozer and Randolph were both in the top four in rebounds last year, and as the numbers I cited proved, each of them killed their counterpart in terms of rebounding.  Last year, when facing Pau in the playoffs, Boozer led the entire NBA in rebounding. 

So, when looking at actual games, rather than theory, Randolph and Boozer killed Pau and Boozer on the boards.  Rose is a better rebounder than Calderon, and my bench has better rebounders than Utah.  Gallinari and Lewis are about a wash.  So, there's *one* position where Utah arguably has a rebounding advantage is at SG, where Casspi grabs about 3% more of available rebounds than Lee did.  However, when you remember that Lee was playing SG, and Casspi was at SF, that rebounding "advantage" disappears.

All I can say is, look at the numbers.  Also, for those leaning toward Utah, how do you anticipate Calderon (and Willie Green) stopping Rose?

[StartOrien]

I believe you yourself even mentioned that, if we're voting in Utah as the 2 seed, then we must be assuming a relatively solid bill of health for Yao.  Personally, i wasn't assuming this, but since the voters determined Utah deserved such a high seed, then i (and the rest of the league) must concede that Yao is pretty healthy.

They're a 2-3 seed matchup. Not a huge difference in how voters felt.

The point that jgod is making, and that Roy made in the first round playoffs is that if Utah is the number two seed in the west Yao has to be pretty effective.

My bad, I misread what he said. For some reason I thought he had said 'such a high seed' in regards to there being a large difference between the two teams.

[Roy H.]

I kind of sympathize with nick's position in the other thread; I think a lot of folks might already have their minds made up, unfortunately.  I'd just ask people to sit down, read through the thread -- *all* of the posts -- and think about what would really happen if these two teams matched up, especially based upon their actual -- rather than theoretical -- history in individual matchups.  (And keep in mind, I'm not skewing the stats with small sample sizes, etc.  I've only pointed to matchups where the bigs have played each other over a dozen times.)

Randolph has killed Pau, both in terms of scoring and rebounding.  Boozer has played a healthy Yao even offensively, and has killed him on the boards (and let's remember, Yao *isn't* healthy, and he's 30 years old).  Rose is MUCH better than Jose Calderon or Willie Green.  At the wings, the starting lineups are about even.  Sacramento has much better depth at almost every position.

In other words, Sacramento should win, and fairly handily.  

[Roy H.]

Phoenix,

Please analyze the Howard/Duncan and Davis/Westbrook matchups.  Will the winner of those battles win the series, or will another factor be the deciding one?

[StartOrien]

I kind of sympathize with nick's position in the other thread; I think a lot of folks might already have their minds made up, unfortunately.  I'd just ask people to sit down, read through the thread -- *all* of the posts -- and think about what would really happen if these two teams matched up, especially based upon their actual -- rather than theoretical -- history in individual matchups.

Randolph has killed Pau, both in terms of scoring and rebounding.  Boozer has played a healthy Yao even offensively, and has killed him on the boards (and let's remember, Yao *isn't* healthy, and he's 30 years old).  Rose is MUCH better than Jose Calderon or Willie Green.  At the wings, the starting lineups are about even.  Sacramento has much better depth at almost every position.

In other words, Sacramento should win, and fairly handily. 

I think there's some validity to the point, but I dont' agree entirely.

I think where some people get hurt in there arguments is that they're almost too thorough. EVERYONE has a varying amount of things going on in their life, and I'd guess the majority (albeit slight) of the voters don't have the ability to read every post in the the thread.

A good poster, and in this sense I'm not one, would have the ability to play to both audiences. Lay out a clear & concise layout of why they think they're a better team for those of us who can afford nothing more than to skim through some of the posts. And then go hardcore with the numbers and strategies for those of us who have the ability to read through these things.

[StartOrien]

Sorry, hit quote when i hit modify.

[nickagneta]

Wondering how the Phoenix team is going to deal with what I consider to be a much, much better defensive team in Denver.

[Roy H.]

I kind of sympathize with nick's position in the other thread; I think a lot of folks might already have their minds made up, unfortunately.  I'd just ask people to sit down, read through the thread -- *all* of the posts -- and think about what would really happen if these two teams matched up, especially based upon their actual -- rather than theoretical -- history in individual matchups.

Randolph has killed Pau, both in terms of scoring and rebounding.  Boozer has played a healthy Yao even offensively, and has killed him on the boards (and let's remember, Yao *isn't* healthy, and he's 30 years old).  Rose is MUCH better than Jose Calderon or Willie Green.  At the wings, the starting lineups are about even.  Sacramento has much better depth at almost every position.

In other words, Sacramento should win, and fairly handily.  

I think there's some validity to the point, but I dont' agree entirely.

I think where some people get hurt in there arguments is that they're almost too thorough. EVERYONE has a varying amount of things going on in their life, and I'd guess the majority (albeit slight) of the voters don't have the ability to read every post in the the thread.

A good poster, and in this sense I'm not one, would have the ability to play to both audiences. Lay out a clear & concise layout of why they think they're a better team for those of us who can afford nothing more than to skim through some of the posts. And then go hardcore with the numbers and strategies for those of us who have the ability to read through these things.

I tried to do that in my last paragraph.

In bullet point form:

• Yao isn't going to be 100%, not coming off an entire season that he missed due to injury.  He's had two foot surgeries, and was recently contemplating retirement.
• Even when Yao has been healthy, Boozer has played him evenly offensively, and has destroyed him on the boards
• Zach Randolph owns Pau Gasol in head to head matchups.  Randolph has had more success than should have been expected in winning games against Pau, too.
• The wing positions are pretty even, but Casspi is playing out of position.
• Jose Calderon is the worst defensive PG in the NBA, and is a bench player in "real life".  He can't handle more than 30 minutes per game, and his backup is Willie Green.  Willie Green is not a point guard.
• Utah has no backup SG, either.  Danilo Gallinari is not a shooting guard.
• Derrick Rose has had playoff success against both the Boston and Cleveland defenses.  He's licking his chops looking at Jose Calderon.

[Donoghus]

Alright, first of all, nice to see the propaganda and exaggeration wars are already at full tilt in both conferences.  That's come to be expected in this draft over the years.  If nothing more, it provides great entertainment value.

Let's face it.  Yao is the great divider in this thing.  I knew that would be the case the moment I decided to draft him in the 2nd round this year.  Some were gonna like the idea while others were going to hate. I figure I'd roll the dice and take the challenge.  I see these terms being floated around like "immobilized" or "ineffective".  I made it known in my division presser that the regular season was essentially a period to get Yao back to game shape and strength.  His minutes were going to be capped somewhere in the mid-20 range.  I figured this would help ease him into it since I figured my team would be good enough to compensate and net a playoff berth, nonetheless.  

Evidently, a lot of you saw the benefit in that and voted this Jazz team a #2 seed.  I saw that many of you even had me as a #1 seed.  I also saw others have me down at the #11 seed level.  That demonstrated to me that Yao was, indeed, the great divider here.  

So, i take it as being a #2 seed that my regular season "minute cap" strategy with Yao worked.  We have a relatively healthy and effective Yao. Only getting stronger and healthier as the season progressed and the farther away from injury.  Made it to the 2nd round so far.  That is my assumption and I hope the progess of this team so far illustrates that Yao must be healthy or else Utah might not be here.  My hope is that many of you see things in the same light.

Remember, this is playoff time.  We're in May now.  This isn't October/November Yao anymore.  He's had an additional 5-6 months of recovery and conditioning.  That's big.

[Roy H.]

Alright, first of all, nice to see the propaganda and exaggeration wars are already at full tilt in both conferences.  That's come to be expected in this draft over the years.  If nothing more, it provides great entertainment value.

Let's face it.  Yao is the great divider in this thing.  I knew that would be the case the moment I decided to draft him in the 2nd round this year.  Some were gonna like the idea while others were going to hate. I figure I'd roll the dice and take the challenge.  I see these terms being floated around like "immobilized" or "ineffective".  I made it known in my division presser that the regular season was essentially a period to get Yao back to game shape and strength.  His minutes were going to be capped somewhere in the mid-20 range.  I figured this would help ease him into it since I figured my team would be good enough to compensate and net a playoff berth, nonetheless.  

Evidently, a lot of you saw the benefit in that and voted this Jazz team a #2 seed.  I saw that many of you even had me as a #1 seed.  I also saw others have me down at the #11 seed level.  That demonstrated to me that Yao was, indeed, the great divider here.  

So, i take it as being a #2 seed that my regular season "minute cap" strategy with Yao worked.  We have a relatively healthy and effective Yao. Only getting stronger and healthier as the season progressed and the farther away from injury.  Made it to the 2nd round so far.  That is my assumption and I hope the progess of this team so far illustrates that Yao must be healthy or else Utah might not be here.  My hope is that many of you see things in the same light.

Remember, this is playoff time.  We're in May now.  This isn't October/November Yao anymore.  He's had an additional 5-6 months of recovery and conditioning.  That's big.

He's had an additional 5-6 months of playing and banging.  Players generally get more injured as the season goes along, not less.

Agree or disagree:  Yao had demonstrated decline in his game, even before his two most recent foot surgeries and his lost season?

If your strategy is "you voted for me before, so why change now", I think you need to adjust.  Jose Calderon is curled up in the corner in a ball, weeping.  Willie Green has entered witness protection.  Neither is stopping Derrick Rose.

[Donoghus]

Utah is going to continue to use its "Twin Towers" inside.  We have beef and height up front and plan on utilizing it.  Yao/Gasol are gonna work on and punish Boozer/Randolph down low and exploit their defensive deficiencies.  Dampier's not going to do much to help things for them down low.  He's too old and Yao will work him by drawing him out or using his size and down low moves to exploit him.  Boozer and Randolph are going to struggle defensively against Gasol & Yao' offensive games.  No bones about it.  

If Dampier is shadowing Lopez, fine.  As we saw in last year's playoff, Robin Lopez is a grinder down low.  Lots of hustle and a bonafide headache.  He's provide strong defense and muscle and I anticipate him to work the glass just fine.