CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Eastern Conference

[nickagneta]

Given how many actual games Oden has played, I would expect people to treat this like his second year which means he's still putting up numbers similar to what he has been ay about 8 PF/48 minutes which would rank him as one of THE 3 or 4 most foul prone players in the league.

[Fafnir]

I think I had 6 ballots last time I checked.

I've made up my mind on most of the series. A few I'm waiting to hear from GMs though.

[KCattheStripe]

Charlattle v. Chicago:

THE RETURN OF THE TRADE!

*Note: I will primarily be responding to IP's post in this section as he, ever the gentleman, went first and gave me an argument to dissect.

Sucker.

First, best of luck to KCattheStripe, he's been a good GM the whole time, and made the game better by playing it.

IP smells.

Why Chicago wins over Charlattle:

They won't. Opposite day isn't until Thursday IP. Quit celebrating early.

Am I done? Is that all I have to do?

Sugar.

Defense: The plan has to start with Amare Stoudemire. I played around with the idea of putting either James or Noah on Stoudemire, but eventually I put that by the wayside.

HOORAY FOR NOT USING THE BEST PLANS!

I'm going to let Ersan Ilyasova or Louis Amundson have him.

Please stop typing things like that, Amar'e is here and he's drooling on my keyboard.  

Ilyasova isn't as strong as Amare,

Very true.

but he's nearly as tall and had a nearly identical wingspan. On top of that I expect him to be able to stay in front of Amare if and when he decides to drive the lane. Ilyasova was 7th overall in charges drawn last year in the NBA, and I wouldn't be surprised if he caught Amare with one or two when the big guy gets cocky. Ilyasova should be good with the faceup game, but he'll lose the war in the post.

Dear Coach Spoelstra,
Remember to plant Amar'e in the post.
Love, Your Boss,

KCatthestripe

If Amare starts to get baskets too easily (which I don't anticipate), I've got LeBron and Joakim Noah there as some of the best help defenders around. But, in the immediate sense, I'm letting Ersan and Amundson have this one.

In all seriousness I think Ersan on Amar'e is a terrible idea but your only option. You can't put James on him because then Rudy will go off and you can't put Noah on him because even Emeka could drop 20 on Ersan in the post.

Amar'e has trouble when he plays two dominant post defenders, see Bynum and Gasol, and not only is his teams only post option but their only post defender. That's an exhausting workload, but not one he faces in this series. Neither of your bigs is particularly productive in the paint so Amar'e saves energy there, meanwhile he's not getting banged or pushed on the offensive end. This is a dream come true match up for Amar'e. Meanwhile it's nightmarish for LeBron but that comes later...

I'm putting one of LeBron or Tony Allen on Rudy Gay, no matter who Charlattle wants to put on LeBron (as in they'll probably have Shane Battier guard LeBron). I'm doing this because Mike Miller should be able to guard Battier pretty simply on defense, while LeBron has proven the ability to dominate Rudy Gay on defense (Rudy Gay averaged 19.6 points per game last year. In the 8 times he's played LeBron he's been held to an average of 16.5 points).

Thank you for putting Tony on Rudy, Tony can't handle Rudy. As illustrated by these past games against Memphis and by the fact that Tony run to Memphis so he'd only play Rudy in practice.  

Those Lebron numbers are a little wonky because they factor in Rudy's numbers from his rookie year, when he wasn't starting, and the 08-09 season when he was the primary weapon of the grizz. Rudy should be a teams second best player, as he is in Charlattle. For what it's worth, I saw Rudy absolutely shut down LeBron in the second half of the Grizz's win in December, turned him into a jumpshooter after he had scored 35ish in the first half (mostly on Demarre Carroll).

 
 I don't anticipate Chris Duhon causing problems for Brandon Jennings, or Emeka Okafor making Joakim Noah sweat too much.

Me neither, but I can see Brandon Jennings becoming a chucker on your team because of LeBron's (deserved) ball dominance. Jennings is no good just as a chucker, he's no Mo Williams as a shooter, and I think that could hurt your team.

I don't really see Noah causing Okafor any problems either.

As far as the bench goes, I'm comfortable with letting my guys guard their guys. Tony Allen will be responsible for Rodney Stuckey when he's playing the 2, and if LeBron is out Allen will be guarding Rudy Gay.

I envision very few scenarios in which Stuckey is in and Rudy is out. Rudy was 3rd in the NBA in minutes played last season so we're expecting 42-43 minutes a game from him. On the other hand it seems to me that you plan on playing Tony primarily as a stopper when LeBron is out in which case this is where your lack of depth hurts you and where my team can shine.

The Bulls simply lack the firepower to keep up with my bench. Stuckey, Luther Head and Dejuan Blair is a potent Troika coming off the bench that I easily prefer to TA, Amundson and the corpse of Michael Redd. Add in a young big with low post ability and 6 foul in Daniel Orton and we can wear the Bulls down.

--side note to Faf and those with whom I discussed Tolliver. Tolliver's biggest asset is as a stretch big but with the Bull's athletic bigs that's less of a help than Orton's low post game.--

The reason my team will win is because we have the starters to frustrate the Bulls and our bench is far deeper.

If LeBron is out and Charlattle gets all Gay-Stuckey on me, then Mike Miller will have to cover Rudy, which in all honesty doesn't really scare me. In 3 games since Miller was traded to Minnesota (the Washington), Rudy Gay has scored 12 points twice, and 20 points once. Mike Miller can guard Rudy Gay.

This is a silly stat. A) There have been 4 games since then and the scoring numbers are 19,12,12,20.

B) In the first 3 Mike Miller was primarily the 6th man back up 2 guard, not the starting three. That man, who held Rudy to 12 twice, was our old friend Ryan Gomes who played excellent defense. In the Washington Game, THornton guarded Rudy as Miller started at the 2.

Mike Miller cannot guard Rudy Gay, but I'm glad you're going to try it!

Offense:
On offense, it will be heavy pick and roll when the starters are in. There are 4 players of my starting 5 that are dangerous from 3pt range,

There are 2. LeBRon is a career 33 percent shooter and that number dips 14 points in the playoffs.And Jenning's 3 point numbers crated under the bright lights in the 7 games he played in last year's playoffs.

and because of that Joakim Noah will be able to outscore Emeka Okafor.

Not if you have to put Noah on Amar'e, then Okafor will eat some Ersan for breakfast.

Let me explain...Ilyasova is a role player on offense..he hits 3pt shots, he cuts to the basket and finishes in the lane, and he gets offensive rebounds by flat out hustling. Ilyasova and Miller will spend a lot of time outside the pain, keeping the interior free of everyone aside from Emeka Okafor. Noah will be the one setting the screens, LeBron and Jennings will be the ones penetrating with the dribble, and Stoudemire and Gay will be left with either leaving their men alone so the gifted passer (James or Jennings) can pass them the ball, or Stoudemire and Gay can stay home, to allow Okafor to foul out before the end of the 3rd, because there is no way he can take Pick and rolls alone from James/Jennings and Noah without accumulating some fouls. He's just not that good.

You make it sound as though Shane Battier has never defended/ shut down a pick and roll in his life. Which is why it's good that he can because LeBron is much scarier as a passer in that situation if he got headed towards the basket. Shane can turn Lebron into a jumpshooter in the pick and roll. Jennings is more of a concern going to the bucket, but he won't kick out which means Amar'e or Rudy can close and help.

I really don't see this pick and roll as devastating.

Also, I think the reliance on the Pick and Roll setting up the three highlights a weakness on your team which is a lack of low post scoring. I'm more than happy to face a team that feels the need to bomb away because those shots don't go in and we'll be happy to come back the other way and take it to the hoop.

I have ample shooters waiting, namely Von Wafer and Michael Redd, neither of which will ever be on the floor at the same time, and have Eric Maynor for when Jennings is out to facilitate the offense.

Two guys who have missed substantial NBA time, one of whom may never even be remotely good again and one guy who couldn't guard Rodney Stuckey if you gave him 3 more inches.


Why the Supercats will Win:

1) We have ample defenders for LeBron.
2) They lack an answer for either Stuckey or Amar'e
3) Our bench will out produce theirs.
As always we'll let our mascot close for us.

In closing:

[indeedproceed]

Given how many actual games Oden has played, I would expect people to treat this like his second year which means he's still putting up numbers similar to what he has been ay about 8 PF/48 minutes which would rank him as one of THE 3 or 4 most foul prone players in the league.

Ehhhhh I disagree with that pretty hard. Just because he's played 82 games, he's still been practicing with NBA teams for the last 3 years. I don't think you treat this like his sophomore season.

[KCattheStripe]

My votes:

Seattle- Because we're awesome.
Milwaukee- Too many weapons for Indy to handle
Atlanta- KD can get'em one.
Washington- Washington is too deep and too good for New York, Oden is never going to be a player.

[indeedproceed]

Why the Supercats will Win:

1) We have ample defenders for LeBron.

Nope, you have one. You have Shane Battier, and he's not going to cut it. He's already clearly losing a step, and he's not ever going to get that back. Next year he should be worse than he was this year. He's still good, just not the best in the business, and LeBron should easily get his averages.

2) They lack an answer for either Stuckey or Amar'e

I'm not sure that I need one, when one guy is a player that Detroit is balking at starting at the point position position, and the other guy (amare) doesn't rebound well enough to keep me off the offensive boards.

Here is what Kelley Dwyer says about Stuckey:

Stuckey is what Stuckey is. He's yet to find a balance between acting as a scoring point guard or passing point man, and the unfortunate truth behind those two aspects of his game is that he's not particularly adept at either. Hardly the return Joe Dumars had in mind when he staved off rebuilding, re-signed Richard Hamilton(notes) and brought in Ben Gordon(notes) and Charlie Villanueva(notes).

And I don't have an answer for that? A guy who doesn't score that well or pass that well, that you're hoping to be your 3rd best scoring source? Ah, I will manage.

3) Our bench will out produce theirs.

That is good, because their starters will not. Maybe, after the real games are over, we can put in our "B" teams to see how they do...you know, let the kids run around a bit.

[Who]

I have settled on three of the four series in the East.

• Chicago vs Seattle -- Bulls sweep ... Stuckey might steal a game
• Milwaukee vs Indy -- Bucks too strong for Indy. Solid series but Milwaukee always has another great. Bucks win 4-2.
• Orlando vs Atlanta -- Magic's bench leads them to victory, 4-1 Orlando

I don't know about Washington and New York. Very close matchup.

[indeedproceed]

I'd like to hear a lot more from Rondo#### and action about the Milwaukee/Kobe Indy playoff matchup.

[Donoghus]

I'd like to hear a lot more from Rondo#### and action about the Milwaukee/Kobe Indy playoff matchup.

I'd like to hear anything about that series and ORL-ATL.

[Rondo2287]

Hey Guys,
Sorry im late, work is crazy today, and i took the GMAT yesterday so i havent had time to prepare anything,  I will post some stuff tonight but in the meantime.  Please vote for me!

[KCattheStripe]

Why the Supercats will Win:

1) We have ample defenders for LeBron.

Nope, you have one. You have Shane Battier, and he's not going to cut it. He's already clearly losing a step, and he's not ever going to get that back. Next year he should be worse than he was this year. He's still good, just not the best in the business, and LeBron should easily get his averages.

2) They lack an answer for either Stuckey or Amar'e

I'm not sure that I need one, when one guy is a player that Detroit is balking at starting at the point position position, and the other guy (amare) doesn't rebound well enough to keep me off the offensive boards.

Here is what Kelley Dwyer says about Stuckey:

Stuckey is what Stuckey is. He's yet to find a balance between acting as a scoring point guard or passing point man, and the unfortunate truth behind those two aspects of his game is that he's not particularly adept at either. Hardly the return Joe Dumars had in mind when he staved off rebuilding, re-signed Richard Hamilton(notes) and brought in Ben Gordon(notes) and Charlie Villanueva(notes).

And I don't have an answer for that? A guy who doesn't score that well or pass that well, that you're hoping to be your 3rd best scoring source? Ah, I will manage.

3) Our bench will out produce theirs.

That is good, because their starters will not. Maybe, after the real games are over, we can put in our "B" teams to see how they do...you know, let the kids run around a bit.

1) If Lebron is getting his averages and that's all, then I really like our chances.
    1a) I know I won't win this argument on this blog because I've had it too many times, But Rudy Gay is an excellent defender and as someone who has watched 100+ Grizzlies games the past two years I have seen him repeatedly get up for the bigger challenges.

2)Amar'e is blocking out out Ersan and Okafor is blocking out your best rebounder. Remember this is Amar'e with actual Low post help. Not Amar'e playing the 5 with Marion floating along the wing somewhere playing the 4, or Boris Diaw for that matter,  nor Channing Flipping Frye at the 5.
       2a) Stuckey is our third option and a huge scorer off the bench. And KElly Dwyer is not taking into account how the three guard redundancy in Detroit has hurt all those players. But still Stuckey averaged 17 and 5. I'll gladly take him as my third scoring option than say, Mike Miller.


3) Our starters will absolutely match up with the production  of yours.

Gay and Amar'e Okafor Battier, Duhon

Lebron, Jennnings, Miller, Noah, Ersan.

[Donoghus]

Hey Guys,
Sorry im late, work is crazy today, and i took the GMAT yesterday so i havent had time to prepare anything,  I will post some stuff tonight but in the meantime.  Please vote for me!

GMATs are easily the worst part about going to business school.  I'm sure thats a huge sense of relief. Congrats.

[KCattheStripe]

I'd like to hear a lot more from Rondo#### and action about the Milwaukee/Kobe Indy playoff matchup.

How dare you diss Pietrus like that!

[Kwhit10]

I'd like to hear a lot more from Rondo#### and action about the Milwaukee/Kobe Indy playoff matchup.

I'd like to hear anything about that series and ORL-ATL.

I've posted my case on why Atlanta should win here

I haven't really had any questions or rebuttals to refute. Champ said he is away today.

[indeedproceed]

Why the Supercats will Win:

1) We have ample defenders for LeBron.

Nope, you have one. You have Shane Battier, and he's not going to cut it. He's already clearly losing a step, and he's not ever going to get that back. Next year he should be worse than he was this year. He's still good, just not the best in the business, and LeBron should easily get his averages.

2) They lack an answer for either Stuckey or Amar'e

I'm not sure that I need one, when one guy is a player that Detroit is balking at starting at the point position position, and the other guy (amare) doesn't rebound well enough to keep me off the offensive boards.

Here is what Kelley Dwyer says about Stuckey:

Stuckey is what Stuckey is. He's yet to find a balance between acting as a scoring point guard or passing point man, and the unfortunate truth behind those two aspects of his game is that he's not particularly adept at either. Hardly the return Joe Dumars had in mind when he staved off rebuilding, re-signed Richard Hamilton(notes) and brought in Ben Gordon(notes) and Charlie Villanueva(notes).

And I don't have an answer for that? A guy who doesn't score that well or pass that well, that you're hoping to be your 3rd best scoring source? Ah, I will manage.

3) Our bench will out produce theirs.

That is good, because their starters will not. Maybe, after the real games are over, we can put in our "B" teams to see how they do...you know, let the kids run around a bit.

1) If Lebron is getting his averages and that's all, then I really like our chances.
    1a) I know I won't win this argument on this blog because I've had it too many times, But Rudy Gay is an excellent defender and as someone who has watched 100+ Grizzlies games the past two years I have seen him repeatedly get up for the bigger challenges.

2)Amar'e is blocking out out Ersan and Okafor is blocking out your best rebounder. Remember this is Amar'e with actual Low post help. Not Amar'e playing the 5 with Marion floating along the wing somewhere playing the 4, or Boris Diaw for that matter,  nor Channing Flipping Frye at the 5.
       2a) Stuckey is our third option and a huge scorer off the bench. And KElly Dwyer is not taking into account how the three guard redundancy in Detroit has hurt all those players. But still Stuckey averaged 17 and 5. I'll gladly take him as my third scoring option than say, Mike Miller.


3) Our starters will absolutely match up with the production  of yours.

Gay and Amar'e Okafor Battier, Duhon

Lebron, Jennnings, Miller, Noah, Ersan.

Do you think I could see a breakdown of your minutes, and specifically how you're going to use Stuckey and Gay and Battier together?

You're kinda throwing names around but Im having trouble visualizing actual lineups, and the time they'll be on the floor.