CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Eastern Conference

[Roy H.]

Has anyone voted yet? Anyone want to post it so we can discuss it?

This is boring me. I might actually start to do real work here.

In the East:

Chicago over Seattle.  Sorry, Seattle, I like your team (you've lost a bit of the Rodney Dangerfield rep this year), but I think Chicago takes this.

Atlanta over Nashville.  I think Durant is a transcendent player, and I think he'll go off for 40+ per night (especially if Vince Carter is going to spend any time guarding him).  I also like Atlanta's chemistry a lot better, and I think that Carter, AK47, and Aldridge are all pretty overrated.  I'm skeptical that Johnson can put this team on his back.

Milwaukee over Indiana.  I'm a Hoosiers type of guy, but I don't think Kobe has enough help.  I will say that I'd like this series better for Milwaukee if they still had Ray and Prince, rather than Hamilton and Maggette.

New York over Washington.  I had New York just barely over Washington in the regular season, and feel the same way about the playoffs.  I think that New York has marginal advantages at center, power forward, and PG, with New York having an advantage at SF.  The differences between that 80% of the starting lineup are fairly close, but the gap between Wade and Ginobili is huge.  I love Manu, but Wade is the 2nd best player in the NBA, and much like Durant, can go for 40+ per night even against good defenses.

[Rondo2287]

Hey Guys,
Sorry im late, work is crazy today, and i took the GMAT yesterday so i havent had time to prepare anything,  I will post some stuff tonight but in the meantime.  Please vote for me!

GMATs are easily the worst part about going to business school.  I'm sure thats a huge sense of relief. Congrats.

Thanks, I studied for a couple of months, puked a couple times yesterday morning before the test cause i was so nervous, but i pulled out a 660 so im pumped!

[KCattheStripe]

Why the Supercats will Win:

1) We have ample defenders for LeBron.

Nope, you have one. You have Shane Battier, and he's not going to cut it. He's already clearly losing a step, and he's not ever going to get that back. Next year he should be worse than he was this year. He's still good, just not the best in the business, and LeBron should easily get his averages.

2) They lack an answer for either Stuckey or Amar'e

I'm not sure that I need one, when one guy is a player that Detroit is balking at starting at the point position position, and the other guy (amare) doesn't rebound well enough to keep me off the offensive boards.

Here is what Kelley Dwyer says about Stuckey:

Stuckey is what Stuckey is. He's yet to find a balance between acting as a scoring point guard or passing point man, and the unfortunate truth behind those two aspects of his game is that he's not particularly adept at either. Hardly the return Joe Dumars had in mind when he staved off rebuilding, re-signed Richard Hamilton(notes) and brought in Ben Gordon(notes) and Charlie Villanueva(notes).

And I don't have an answer for that? A guy who doesn't score that well or pass that well, that you're hoping to be your 3rd best scoring source? Ah, I will manage.

3) Our bench will out produce theirs.

That is good, because their starters will not. Maybe, after the real games are over, we can put in our "B" teams to see how they do...you know, let the kids run around a bit.

1) If Lebron is getting his averages and that's all, then I really like our chances.
    1a) I know I won't win this argument on this blog because I've had it too many times, But Rudy Gay is an excellent defender and as someone who has watched 100+ Grizzlies games the past two years I have seen him repeatedly get up for the bigger challenges.

2)Amar'e is blocking out out Ersan and Okafor is blocking out your best rebounder. Remember this is Amar'e with actual Low post help. Not Amar'e playing the 5 with Marion floating along the wing somewhere playing the 4, or Boris Diaw for that matter,  nor Channing Flipping Frye at the 5.
       2a) Stuckey is our third option and a huge scorer off the bench. And KElly Dwyer is not taking into account how the three guard redundancy in Detroit has hurt all those players. But still Stuckey averaged 17 and 5. I'll gladly take him as my third scoring option than say, Mike Miller.


3) Our starters will absolutely match up with the production  of yours.

Gay and Amar'e Okafor Battier, Duhon

Lebron, Jennnings, Miller, Noah, Ersan.

Do you think I could see a breakdown of your minutes, and specifically how you're going to use Stuckey and Gay and Battier together?

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

[indeedproceed]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

[action781]

Ugh, some things came up.  I got another class to teach until 3:45, so can't talk my team up until after then...

[KCattheStripe]

Charlattle Minutes:

PG:Duhon( 20) Stuckey(28)
SG: Rudy Gay (30) Stuckey (13) Head (5)
SF: Battier (30) Gay (15) Sam Young (3)
PF: Amar'e (35)  Dejuan Blair (9) Daniel Orton (4)
C: Emeka Okafor (32) Amar'e (10) Blair( 6)

[KCattheStripe]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

At a time.

[Fafnir]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

I'd worry about playing Ruday Gay 45 minutes and being effective.

[indeedproceed]

Also, here are my thoughts but i haven't voted yet:

1) Chicago over Seattle.

2) Milwaukee over Indiana- Jason Kidd is bigger and better than Derick Fisher. Kobe is way better than Rip Hamilton. Pietrus is good enough to slow down Maggette and maggette is bad enough on defense that Pietrus should get close to 10 ppg. Nowitzki will absolutely destroy Ty THomas, and Marc Gasol is better than Marcin Gortat, but neither is a particularly amazing defender, so I see Gortat getting 10-12, to Gasol's 17-8. The key here will be who has an easier time; Nowitzki or Kobe, and with Jason Kidd providing the ammunition (and 10 points, 10 assists and 5 or 6 boards himself), Nowitzki has more to work with.

Washington over New York: I like Washington over New York here but not by that much. I'd like to hear more from New York's side(that isn't argued by either me or Roy), but without that I have Washington

Orlando V Atlanta: This one I had Orlando pretty heavy favorites, but I've waivered on that considerably, and I honestly don't know who to pick anymore. I'll have to read and wait for CHamp's rebuttal.

[KCattheStripe]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

I'd worry about playing Ruday Gay 45 minutes and being effective.

He was third in the NBA this past year in both minutes played and minutes per game. More random Rudy Skepticism. 

[Fafnir]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

I'd worry about playing Ruday Gay 45 minutes and being effective.

He was third in the NBA this past year in both minutes played and minutes per game. More random Rudy Skepticism. 

He averaged 39.7 per game, he's still resting 8 minutes. Cutting his rest down to 3 minutes a game is risky.

Its not skepticism to think that you're be shooting yourself late in games by playing him so much. Everyone gets tired, especially if you're asking him to play defense at a high level as well as carry a big offensive load.

[KCattheStripe]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

I'd worry about playing Ruday Gay 45 minutes and being effective.

He was third in the NBA this past year in both minutes played and minutes per game. More random Rudy Skepticism. 

He averaged 39.7 per game, he's still resting 8 minutes. Cutting his rest down to 3 minutes a game is risky.

Its not skepticism to think that you're be shooting yourself late in games by playing him so much. Everyone gets tired, especially if you're asking him to play defense at a high level as well as carry a big offensive load.

Young important players minutes go up in the playoffs,see Rondo, Rajon. If he plays 15 minutes at SF and 30 guarding Mike Miller or Tony Allen, is he really exerting himself that much?

[indeedproceed]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

I'd worry about playing Ruday Gay 45 minutes and being effective.

Word.

So here are the primary back-court lineups?
1) Duhon/Gay/Battier (approx 20 mins)
2) Stuckey/Gay/Battier (Approx 10 mins)
3) Duhon/Stuckey/Gay (approx 5 mins)
4) Stuckey/Head/Gay (approx 5 mins)

And your primary FC lineups:
1) Amare/Okafor (25 mins)
2) Blair/Amare or Amare/Blair (15 mins)
3) Blair/Okafor (5 mins)
4) Orton/Amare (4mins)

That about right?

[Lucky17]

My votes are in:

Chicago over Seattle: Chicago has the best player, an explosive PG, and, I think, the better 8-man rotation.

Milwaukee over Indiana: I think this goes 7 games, thanks to Kobe basically carrying his team and holding home court. But I think Milwaukee has more weapons, and more experience.

Orlando over Atlanta: I ranked Orlando higher in the regular season, and they have HCA. But beyond that, I just don't like Atlanta's backcourt rotation vs. the Magic's. Durant is quickly emerging as a transcendent player, but I don't think he has the bullets to win this series.

Washington over New York: Washington is deeper, by far. A pretty even matchup in the starting frontcourts. Wade will win a game or two on his own, but he can't go the distance.

[Fafnir]

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, why you gotta make me do Math?

I will say, that until the 4th, it's unlikely that you would see That trio on the court at the same time. Battier's minutes would have to be conserved a little so to offset that dip in defense you might see a switch like Battier/ Duhon out
Stuckey/Head in and Rudy mans up on LeBron for 5 minutes or so.

So you're saying Gay is only going to play 5 mins or so a night at the SF?

I'd worry about playing Ruday Gay 45 minutes and being effective.

He was third in the NBA this past year in both minutes played and minutes per game. More random Rudy Skepticism. 

He averaged 39.7 per game, he's still resting 8 minutes. Cutting his rest down to 3 minutes a game is risky.

Its not skepticism to think that you're be shooting yourself late in games by playing him so much. Everyone gets tired, especially if you're asking him to play defense at a high level as well as carry a big offensive load.

Young important players minutes go up in the playoffs,see Rondo, Rajon. If he plays 15 minutes at SF and 30 guarding Mike Miller or Tony Allen, is he really exerting himself that much?

Did you notice how gassed Rondo was at times? Did you notice how his defense slipped frequently forcing Doc to give him a blow?

Its a legit strategy, but I think its a questionable one. Especially if that's your game plan going into the series.