CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Eastern Conference

[Kwhit10]

sorry this isn't more in-depth....

Gainesville Celtic
Seattle
Indiana
Orlando
Washington


CHI/SEA - in a 7-game shocker Seattle pulls off the upset. Lebron goes off but SEA can shut down the other guys and CHI can't stop Amare. (without Stuckey, SEA loses b/c of Duhon but if Stuckey does play the Manu role he can neutralize Jennings, CHI's 2nd best player)

MIL/IND - in another upset, MIL (who I had winning the EC in the reg. season) is the deeper team but have NO ONE who can guard Kobe for even short stretches outside maybe Barnes. MIL is unlucky in that althletic guys like Ty Thomas and Maxiell are the kind of guys who give Dirk fits.

ORL/ATL - Durant can't overcome the Reddick/Johnson matchup. Kirilenko is a nice matchup vs. Durant in an unlucky draw for ATL.

WAS/NYK - Not a huge fan of WAS makeup, but they win going away here. 5 games max... just not enough talent around Wade.

GC  did you see Durant verse Kirilenko last year?

I don't know who on this team will be guarding Durant, but we know it won't be Johnson or Carter as Durant will shoot all day over each of them and have his way to the basket.  If Kirilenko is on him Durant has had no trouble against this past year averaging 29.5 ppg, 52%FG, 43% 3FG, 7rpg, 6.5apg.

[indeedproceed]

Who plays great defense on your team at the one or the two, honestly, Joakim Noah is an overrated help shotblocker. His blocks come from good one on one defense, Stuckey can't be stoopped by anyone on your team. Also, Rudy Gay is a lifetime 35% 3 point shooter.

Tony Allen is more than capable to stopping Rodney Stuckey from dominating a game for his team. He's become one of the leagues better stoppers on the wing, as he proved to anyone who watched this year's playoffs (as opposed to playoffs from 2 years ago, when Stuckey was last relevant).

As far as Brandon Jennings, he's got people smarter than me to advocate for him:

Second Team - Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee
Don't laugh. While the book on Jennings was that he was too slight to be anything but a liability on defense, I've been impressed when I've seen him play and his numbers are strong across the board. In particular, Jennings' dMult of .864 (meaning opposing point guards produced at 86.4 percent of their usual rate against the Bucks) is tops among the point guards I considered.

Even if you don't buy Jennings as an all-defensive player, his metrics alone prove he's a capable defender from the point, and since Rodney Stuckey can't shoot, Brandon Jennings should also be able to handle him anytime he tries to be the primary ball handler...which he stunk at anyways.

Joakim Noah is a fantastic man defender, but he's got the length and athleticism to be a help defender, and even if you don't believe that look at his rebounding acumen. Look at his, LeBron's, Ersan's, Miller's and Amundson's. If you get one second chance bucket I will be surprised. Miller is the best SG in the league at getting defensive rebounds. LeBron is one of the best SF rebounders (since Gerald Wallace stole that honor), Ersan Ilyasova is a better rebounder than Amare by every metric available, and Noah is clearly a better rebounder than Emeka Okafor.

The Celtics lost a LOT of games because they couldn't rebound last year, and they had 2 knock-down 3pt shooters in Ray Allen and Paul Pierce to keep teams out of the lane from stacking up on them.

Amundson isn't a flashy guy but he knows all of Amare's moves and he knows how to stop him. He's nearly as big, and he's pretty atheltic, maybe not the freak Amare is, but he's no stiff.

Ersan Ilyasova was 7th in the league in charges taken last season and has proven in the past season that his defensive reputation as a stopper is well deserved.

Then, there is 2x all-defensive team player LeBron James...unlike your best defender (Battier), LeBron is in the prime of his youth and abilities, fresh off consecutive MVP campaigns at age 25.

I don't see Charlattle winning the series.

Your guys aren't going to have to shooters, you're not going to have the ball handler Rondo was,I think Chicago has a lot going for it here.

 

[Who]

What lineup will Chicago use when LeBron is resting?

I'm assuming he is playing about 40-42 minutes a game in this series. So 6-8 non-LeBron minutes.

[Lucky17]

Question for Chicago:

Do you think Brandon Jennings and LeBron James can co-exist on the same team, or will there be an internal sneaker war?

http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/69108/20100914/jennings_blames_shoes_for_team_usa_snub/

[Who]

Tony Allen is more than capable to stopping Rodney Stuckey from dominating a game for his team. 

Agreed -- Tony Allen can neutralize Stuckey. You'd need to play TA as your backup PG though.

Eric Maynor is too weak physically and defensively to switch onto Battier, Gay or S.Young.

-------------------------------------------------

Wondering about minutes ...

If you are playing Tony at the point for 10-13 minutes a night plus another 15-18 minutes a night at the two backing up Mike Miller. So TA has 25-31 minutes a night as a reserve guard.

Joakim Noah has 36-38 minutes a game. LeBron 40-42 minutes. Ilysaova 28-32 minutes a game. That leaves 32-40 minutes in your frontcourt. Let's say Amundson takes half of that. That leaves 16-20 minutes to be split up between Lawal and/or Fields. Lawal would likely be going against DeJuan Blair (bad matchup). Fields against S.Young (questionable matchup).

The bench looks a lot shorter when you take Eric Maynor out of the rotation.

You could use him against Duhon I suppose. I'd still give Duhon the nod (over Maynor) ... but far less of an issue than Rodney Stuckey. A small negative rather than a large one. Better allocation of resources.

[StartOrien]

I voted...

Chicago
Milwakay
Orlando
Washington

[indeedproceed]

That's against the best defense in the league. He might not have won the series, and while his team was losing  (and quitting) around him, he might not have had the muster to pick them up, but he didn't lose that series for the Cavs, the kid played his heart out.

The problem is, the "kid" *didn't* play his heart out.  It's ironic that you cite his teammates as quitting, when his former owner (and scores of analysts) said that it's Lebron that gave up.

Kelly Dwyer -- apparently, the smartest man in the NBA -- called Lebron "a crushing failure as a leader", for what it's worth.

A lot of people say he quit. That's fine, that's not the reading I got watching the games. I saw a player who was frustrated, and playing pretty much alone. I saw a guy with a coach who couldn't relate to him anymore, and a team around him that couldn't gel like it did during the season. If people want to say he quit, fine. I think he quit when the rest of the team did.

He's not the first pro player to mail in the last half of an elimination game. Kobe did in a game 7 against Phoenix. These guys get frustrated and carrying that kind of burden is a pressure none of us can understand.

Here is what Kelly Dwyer says about LeBron:

1. LeBron James(notes), Miami Heat (last year: first)

By now we know what we're dealing with, with LeBron.

The guy is lost. We probably would be too had we had the same upbringing, the same things whispered in our ear and/or shouted on cable TV before we could legally drive. But that doesn't mean we can't criticize him time and again for appearing - what should the catch-all word of the day be for LeBron today? - clueless. Over and over again.

But he's also the best player in the game. Others are more accomplished, because others have had better teams. Others have been more tactful, classier, smarter and worked harder. But in the end, all these mitigating factors don't take enough away for us not to accurately describe LeBron James as, far and away, the best player in pro basketball.

And, certainly, the best player at his position.

Hey, I can take that. LeBron James isn't the greatest human being, and his sense of reality is a little messed up.

But he's still the best player in basketball.

[Roy H.]

That's against the best defense in the league. He might not have won the series, and while his team was losing  (and quitting) around him, he might not have had the muster to pick them up, but he didn't lose that series for the Cavs, the kid played his heart out.

The problem is, the "kid" *didn't* play his heart out.  It's ironic that you cite his teammates as quitting, when his former owner (and scores of analysts) said that it's Lebron that gave up.

Kelly Dwyer -- apparently, the smartest man in the NBA -- called Lebron "a crushing failure as a leader", for what it's worth.

A lot of people say he quit. That's fine, that's not the reading I got watching the games. I saw a player who was frustrated, and playing pretty much alone. I saw a guy with a coach who couldn't relate to him anymore, and a team around him that couldn't gel like it did during the season. If people want to say he quit, fine. I think he quit when the rest of the team did.

He's not the first pro player to mail in the last half of an elimination game. Kobe did in a game 7 against Phoenix. These guys get frustrated and carrying that kind of burden is a pressure none of us can understand.

Here is what Kelly Dwyer says about LeBron:

1. LeBron James(notes), Miami Heat (last year: first)

By now we know what we're dealing with, with LeBron.

The guy is lost. We probably would be too had we had the same upbringing, the same things whispered in our ear and/or shouted on cable TV before we could legally drive. But that doesn't mean we can't criticize him time and again for appearing - what should the catch-all word of the day be for LeBron today? - clueless. Over and over again.

But he's also the best player in the game. Others are more accomplished, because others have had better teams. Others have been more tactful, classier, smarter and worked harder. But in the end, all these mitigating factors don't take enough away for us not to accurately describe LeBron James as, far and away, the best player in pro basketball.

And, certainly, the best player at his position.

Hey, I can take that. LeBron James isn't the greatest human being, and his sense of reality is a little messed up.

But he's still the best player in basketball.

"Crushing failure as a leader".

I wouldn't want that from my best player.   

[misha]

I voted...

Chicago
Milwaukee
Orlando
Washington

Ditto.

[indeedproceed]

That's against the best defense in the league. He might not have won the series, and while his team was losing  (and quitting) around him, he might not have had the muster to pick them up, but he didn't lose that series for the Cavs, the kid played his heart out.

The problem is, the "kid" *didn't* play his heart out.  It's ironic that you cite his teammates as quitting, when his former owner (and scores of analysts) said that it's Lebron that gave up.

Kelly Dwyer -- apparently, the smartest man in the NBA -- called Lebron "a crushing failure as a leader", for what it's worth.

A lot of people say he quit. That's fine, that's not the reading I got watching the games. I saw a player who was frustrated, and playing pretty much alone. I saw a guy with a coach who couldn't relate to him anymore, and a team around him that couldn't gel like it did during the season. If people want to say he quit, fine. I think he quit when the rest of the team did.

He's not the first pro player to mail in the last half of an elimination game. Kobe did in a game 7 against Phoenix. These guys get frustrated and carrying that kind of burden is a pressure none of us can understand.

Here is what Kelly Dwyer says about LeBron:

1. LeBron James(notes), Miami Heat (last year: first)

By now we know what we're dealing with, with LeBron.

The guy is lost. We probably would be too had we had the same upbringing, the same things whispered in our ear and/or shouted on cable TV before we could legally drive. But that doesn't mean we can't criticize him time and again for appearing - what should the catch-all word of the day be for LeBron today? - clueless. Over and over again.

But he's also the best player in the game. Others are more accomplished, because others have had better teams. Others have been more tactful, classier, smarter and worked harder. But in the end, all these mitigating factors don't take enough away for us not to accurately describe LeBron James as, far and away, the best player in pro basketball.

And, certainly, the best player at his position.

Hey, I can take that. LeBron James isn't the greatest human being, and his sense of reality is a little messed up.

But he's still the best player in basketball.

"Crushing failure as a leader".

I wouldn't want that from my best player.   

Doc Rivers as a coach won coach of the year then got fired. Then he coached terrible team after terrible team before he got an opportunity to really do something. He's now considered an elite coach.

New team, better team, new situation for old Doc. New team, better team, new situation for LeBron. The guy is 25 years old, he'll make mistakes, but the book is far from closed on him.

You're trying to sell Zach Randolph as a type of player that will play his role and shut up. That is completely against everything we know about Zach Randolph.

What is more likely, Z-Bo happily taking a secondary role a year after an All-star appearance and a revival season, or LeBron James learning from his mistakes last season and becoming a better leader.

If he was anyone else besides LeBron James, the guy we love to hate, we'd think he'd learn to be better. But, since we all love to hate LeBron, we like to bag on him.

[Fafnir]

New York Knicks:

The Knicks have the second best player in the league in Dwayne Wade. Everything about the Knicks starts and stops with him at the SG position. He's a devastating offensive and defensive force who gets his own and creates for others. The Knicks are also a bad match up for the Boxers, as Wade will limit Manu's productivity with his defense.

Unlike the actual Miami heat Wade has legitimate help on the Knicks. At every position the Knicks are better than the actual Heat were, so unfortunately beating the Knicks isn't as simple as Nick implies by stopping everyone else and letting Wade have his. The current Boxers team isn't equipped to be the same defensive powerhouse the 2009-2010 Celtics were. Even if they were, this Knicks team is better than the Heat by a wide margin.

George Hill is an excellent combo guard to play off of Wade. He will defend the PG position at an above average level, rebounds solidly, and is also a good shooter. He matches up quite well with Felton's size and quickness.

Grant Hill is a rock solid role player at the SF position who will play great team ball. The matchup with Chandler and Buddinger doesn't look to be a problem for either side.

In the front court Oden is a dominant rebounding and defensive presence. Washington's strategy of attacking him and trying to get him in foul trouble tells me he knows exactly how much trouble the Boxers are in if Oden can play 30 minutes a game. Oden is an efficient scorer and creates a ton of extra possessions for the Knicks. Oden is a better rebounder, defender, and more efficient than Bynum and will keep Bynum from his easy buckets.

As IP posted third year big men usually start to come around with respect to fouls, Oden will still be foul prone, but he should easily manage to play enough minutes in the series to keep the Boxers from enjoying the front court advantage that Nick anticipates.

Kenyon Martin is still a quality defensive player and respectable offensive force. By playoff time I expect him to have recovered to provide a good defender and reasonable garbage man on offense.

I think Washington is somewhat deeper than the Knicks, but in the playoffs its your top units that matter the most. The Knicks have the role players to allow the superior talent on the top end to win out in the end of a tough series.

[mgent]

Seattle
Milwaukee
Atlanta
New York

Had to call the upset.  Can't believe Charlotte dropped to the 8th seed, I had them 2nd.  I like Chicago, but I don't think they've got an answer for Gay AND Amare.  There's probably a 50/50 chance that LeBron throws the team on his back and goes for 40ppg, but I think Charlotte is the better team.  Has to be the closest series.

I voted the Magic ahead of the Hawks in the regular season, but I've got Atlanta in this match-up.  Durant is gonna be too much for them to handle, especially Vince.

New York will probably sweep the Boxers.

[action781]

2) Milwaukee over Indiana- Jason Kidd is bigger and better than Derick Fisher. Kobe is way better than Rip Hamilton. Pietrus is good enough to slow down Maggette and maggette is bad enough on defense that Pietrus should get close to 10 ppg. Nowitzki will absolutely destroy Ty THomas, and Marc Gasol is better than Marcin Gortat, but neither is a particularly amazing defender, so I see Gortat getting 10-12, to Gasol's 17-8. The key here will be who has an easier time; Nowitzki or Kobe, and with Jason Kidd providing the ammunition (and 10 points, 10 assists and 5 or 6 boards himself), Nowitzki has more to work with.

I have a great amount of respect for Milwaukee.  I believe I voted them 2nd or 3rd in the East.

But I'm surprised so many people are considering Indiana out of the running so easily.  I happen to think IP is very on point with his analysis right here, except I'd like to clarify a few things.

"Jason Kidd is bigger and better than Derek Fisher"

OK, maybe some truth here.  What does bigger have anything to do with anything though?  Because Jason Kidd can post up smaller point guards like we've seen him do before?  Correct.  But when was the last time you ever saw Derek Fisher posted up by another pg?  I just asked my friend, he replied, "never".  My answer was the same.  Fisher is a strong dude...

J-Kidd averaged 8ppg in 40+ mpg in last year's first round playoff matchup against T. Parker/G. Hill.  My point guards are not horrendously worse than those 2.  Especially Fisher against a pg like Kidd who Fisher can stay in front of.  If Jack wants any meaningful playing time, Kidd won't play 40 mpg.  Due to that, I don't see Kidd averaging over 8ppg against my team and I don't see ANY reason why Fisher can't score 9 ppg in 32 mpg.  He scored averages of 10.2 (vs. Westbrook), 11.3 (Deron Williams), 11.8 (Nash), and 8.6 ppg (Rondo/Ray) in the ordered rounds of the playoffs last postseason.  I think people are seriously sleeping on how much Fisher steps it up in the playoffs!!  Please reconsider this and I welcome anyone to refute this logic.  Out perform in rebounds and assists?  Perhaps.  Will Kidd outscore Fisher?  Fisher outscored Kidd in last season's playoffs against better defenders in LESS minutes!!  So, I think NOT.  Again, all are welcome to refute.

The reason I gave Milwaukee a matchup advantage at the point was due to Kidd's non-scoring contributions. His superior passing, rebounding and defense in comparison to Derek Fisher.

The scoring should be about even though.

I still see zero reasoning why the scoring would be even.  I truly believe that Fisher would outscore him.  Remember, we're talking about playoffs here.  Check last postseason's scoring #'s and the players he did it against and the minutes he played.  Kidd is not a scorer

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=kiddja01&y1=2010&p2=fishede01&y2=2010

They scored at comparable rates last season. Kidd failed to score well against the Spurs, who featured a much better defensive match up against him. Besides its a small sample size of 7 games for Kidd, I see no reason he can't score at a similar rate to Fisher.

Not in the playoffs they didn't.  Fisher scored MORE points in 8 LESS minutes per game against BETTER defenders.  I've been pleading this the whole time.  Fisher... doesn't give a crap during the regular season.  Just like the celtics.  He is a seasoned veteran.  He knows when it counts.  And he steps up when it counts.  This right here, the CBNBA playoffs, is WHERE IT COUNTS!

[StartOrien]

Question for the Magic:

What. The. Hell.

[action781]

Maggette vs. Pietrus

Maggette is a very limited offensive player.  He wants to drive to the hole and puts up a lot of numbers on pretty bad teams.  He’s only really once played for a team that made a decent playoff run.  Pietrus, on the other hand, has been a key player for a deep playoff team for two consecutive years.  What was his role on that team?  Playing defense and hitting 3 pointers with the occasional slash to the hoop.  He has the size and speed to stay in front of Maggette and will frustrate him into a poor shot selection.  He will also get his 10 ppg like IP said in 28 mpg.  Korver will also get some playing time when Pietrus or Kobe go to the bench.  While we lose defense, we gain an even more accurate 3 point shooter.  So as every team loses something when they go to the bench, it’s important that we gain something too.  Indy will try to play him when Barnes plays to risk getting abused on defense.

Dirk vs. Ty Thomas/Maxiell

Yeah, I don’t have much going here.  Milwaukee has a big advantage here just like I do with Kobe over Rip.  But who is the player, Kobe or Dirk, known to elevate his game to new levels in the playoffs and who is the player who dominates regular seasons with great stats and then often disappoints in the playoffs?

Gortat vs. M. Gasol

I like Gortat as a player.  I think he’s a great bench player for a quality team.  I think Gortat is a quality defender who can hold Gasol to 15-18ppg or so but allowing a couple 20+ppg performances in there which could help Indy get a couple easy wins.  I don’t see why Gortat would get 10-12 ppg against Gasol though.  He has never put up those kind of numbers and has never showed that he can sustain his level of play over the extended minutes he’d require in order to get even close to 10-12 ppg.  I say that Gasol considerably out performs Gortat more than any other matchup in this series outside of the 2's and 4's.

Gasol is the reason why Kobe won’t need to carry the team too much.  Can Kobe carry the team for 2 games?  Of course, I can’t think of a time anyone has ever doubted Kobe’s ability to carry a team all by himself to 2 playoff wins.  I think with Gasol’s help (with occasional 20+ point games) and the rest of the team consistently performing their roles (which they are known for) and knocking down 3’s (Pietrus, Fisher, and Korver all excel at this), my team can win 2 more games over a 7 game series.  I see it happening over 6 or 7 games.

Let’s all remember, again, which star in this series is known for elevating his play to unseen levels in the playoffs and which star in this series has only twice EVER (SA 2006, 2009) in his entire career won a playoff series against another elite superstar.