Celtics will regret not re-signing Tony

[Fafnir]

  Oddly enough, aside from 3pt fg% (38%) and ft% (81%), check out these numbers:

The 3pt% is not an insignificant difference.

In a vacuum, Tony Allen is probably about as useful as a top three-point shooting wing with little else to offer on offense who is a sieve on defense.

  People here tend to grossly overrate outside shooting.

Tony has a negative effect on team offense as a whole, that's the problem more than just his shooting.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2010%20playoffs&mode=summary&sortnumber=94&sortorder=DESC&team=BOS

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?mode=summary&sortnumber=94&sortorder=DESC&team=BOS&year=2009-2010

I do think we'll miss his defensive ability, but I think it can be replaced by a lesser defensive player who doesn't cost us so much on the other end.

[BballTim]

  Oddly enough, aside from 3pt fg% (38%) and ft% (81%), check out these numbers:

The 3pt% is not an insignificant difference.

In a vacuum, Tony Allen is probably about as useful as a top three-point shooting wing with little else to offer on offense who is a sieve on defense.

  People here tend to grossly overrate outside shooting.

I don't believe so, BBall - just like we don't overrate superior defense, like what TA gave us.

  We'll see, when Delonte is able to keep players like Kobe and Wade under wraps, and people stick to hom and Daniels like glue on the other end.
 

[GreenFaith1819]

Tell you what - I'll go even further here:

Let's say that in a series with MIA, Wade and Lebron go for 20-25 each? We miss TA, but we deal with it.

We'll still beat MIA. I know we will.

KG/JO/Glen will lock down on Bosh/Haslem/J Anthony, and Shaq/Perk/Semih will control the painted area.

And then there's always the possibility of a Sheed sighting......but anyways even if MIA gets Dampier we still win, no matter how much Pat Riley runs his trap.

It's been proven that no one can shut down Kobe/Lebron/Wade individually. At times, yes TA did in fact play well defensively against Wade/Lebron/Kobe. Yes - we'll miss that option next year. But it won't be destructive to what our Goal is.

For LA, IMO it was always the Celtics Goal to let Kobe try to beat us by himself anyway - and he has not done that in 3-4 years.

As a Team, we've limited Kobe from beating us by himself, not just TA. LA beat us mainly because of rebounds and because Perk went down, and Artest played well defensively against Paul. Plus, Ron Ron was IMO the best player in that Game 7, not Kobe.

To any Laker fans reading this - yes you won, congrats. But as a Team, we'll minimize what Lebron/Wade/Kobe will do in 2010-11.

Mark my post - we won't lose to LA or MIA, just based off of TA choosing to go to MEM.

[ScoobyDoo]

I'd argue that Tony Allen is going to "regret not re-signing with the Celtics", right about the time we are raising #18 this year and very possibly #19 next year with the current team we have assembled.

If this team stays healthy, even at their ages, we are stacked with a bunch of guys who are tough wiley vets that know how to win.

[GreenFaith1819]

I'd argue that Tony Allen is going to "regret not re-signing with the Celtics", right about the time we are raising #18 this year and very possibly #19 next year with the current team we have assembled.

If this team stays healthy, even at their ages, we are stacked with a bunch of guys who are tough wiley vets that know how to win.

And that is what I fear Scoobs - that TA will get awfully lonely watching Boston play Basketball well into June 2011.

I do hope that he roughs up Kobe for us, though. MEM will play LA 3-4 times this year?

[Who]

I'd argue that Tony Allen is going to "regret not re-signing with the Celtics"

Agreed -- I don't see how going to Memphis to play behind OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay is going to help further his career.

I could understand going somewhere for a larger role but that isn't the case here.

[snively]

I hated losing TA.  He was the best perimeter defender in the playoffs.  He was the only wing on our team who consistently crashed the boards and ran in transition.  His ability to generate steals was incredible.

That said, his role was always going to be limited with Rondo on board, especially in tight playoff games where points were at a premium.  And the Celtics are fairly well positioned in his absence.

The additions of Bradley, Wafer and West and the re-upping of Daniels and Robinson gives the Celtics a ton of (potential) flexibility in terms of line-ups and potential midseason trades.  4 of the 5 players have played major roles on good playoff teams and the 5th is a highly touted prospect who happens to possess similar raw tools to the "new wave" of point/combo guards, i.e. Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. Their skill-sets are diverse: Bradley is the defensive specialist with a jumper, West is the Swiss army knife combo guard, Wafer is the streak scorer with wing-size, Nate is the streak scorer who can play the point, and Daniels is the herky jerky slasher who can play some D.

If say West and Wafer attain their prior levels of performance and solidify the back-up roles at the 1 and 2, that would allow the C's to offer a pretty enticing package of Bradley (long-term prospect), Nate (legitimate bench scorer signed to a reasonable short-term deal), Daniels (expiring contract) and maybe even Baby (versatile, high-profile young player), if either Gody or Erden pan out, to bring back an impact wing making $10-14 mil.

Players that might fit the bill: Tayshaun Prince (great fit, still relatively young) and Jason Richardson (great long-range bomber, good rebounder, great transition player).  Subtract a contract or two and guys like Ariza, Diaw and Battier come into the conversation.

Even without a home run trade, there are some decent and likely available (for the right price of course) players out there that could bring a lot of what Tony offered.  Renaldo Balkman, Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino and Jamario Moon spring to mind. 

Bottom line is that TA's 8-15 minutes of playoff time have a solid forecast of being filled by a player of similar quality.  Even if we're stuck with Daniels in the TA playoff role, the drop won't be anywhere near as steep as Posey to Scal/Finley was.

[snively]

I'd argue that Tony Allen is going to "regret not re-signing with the Celtics"

Agreed -- I don't see how going to Memphis to play behind OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay is going to help further his career.

I could understand going somewhere for a larger role but that isn't the case here.

Excellent point.  The Grizzlies wanted to him to make better use of Sam Young's 16 minutes a game, not to take minutes away from Mayo and Gay.  With Xavier Henry added to the team, TA might even get less time than Young did last year. 

[BballTim]

Tell you what - I'll go even further here:

Let's say that in a series with MIA, Wade and Lebron go for 20-25 each? We miss TA, but we deal with it.

We'll still beat MIA. I know we will.

  The problem is if one of them goes off for 35 or so and the other gets 25. But as long as you know we'll beat them no matter what I guess it isn't really a concern.

As a Team, we've limited Kobe from beating us by himself, not just TA. LA beat us mainly because of rebounds and because Perk went down, and Artest played well defensively against Paul. Plus, Ron Ron was IMO the best player in that Game 7, not Kobe.

  One of the reasons we gave up so many rebounds was dribble penetration by their perimeter players. Putting Delonte out there won't help with that.

Mark my post - we won't lose to LA or MIA, just based off of TA choosing to go to MEM.

  SO if we lose to Miami or LA, it won't be because of Kobe or Wade or LeBron?

[BballTim]

I'd argue that Tony Allen is going to "regret not re-signing with the Celtics", right about the time we are raising #18 this year and very possibly #19 next year with the current team we have assembled.

If this team stays healthy, even at their ages, we are stacked with a bunch of guys who are tough wiley vets that know how to win.

  If Tony regrets his decision, it will be because his role isn't what he expected it to be. I doubt he thinks that he'll be more likely to win a title in Memphis.

[GreenFaith1819]

So Bball - if TA was such an impact, then why didn't he stop the dribble penetration VS LA? Kobe got 15 rebs in Game 7 - when we had TA.

And if Lebron and Wade go off for the point total you are forecasting, then it would've happened with TA, Michael Cooper, or whomever.

And yes MIA will still lose in your scenario. Do you think that Bosh (who is their designated 3rd option) will get even double figures if those two try to carry the load like that?

Miller? Chalmers?

If you think that Lebron or Wade will get that many points because TA chose to leave Boston, and we now have DWest trying to guard them, they must be shredding our interior, which is not likely to happen. Neither of those two are excellent shooters.

Both Wade and Lebron get a lot of their points from driving. And after last summer our interior defense got better.

[Roy H.]

Mark my post - we won't lose to LA or MIA, just based off of TA choosing to go to MEM.

  SO if we lose to Miami or LA, it won't be because of Kobe or Wade or LeBron?

GF didn't say that, and you know it.  If we lose to Miami or LA, it doesn't mean that we would have beat them if we had Tony.  Tony Allen, believe it or not, didn't shut down Kobe or Lebron, despite what somebody might think from reading some of the hyperbole in this thread. 

It remains to be seen whether the Celtics have filled the void created when Tony choose to pursue individual glory over championships.  However, until it's been shown that that hole hasn't been filled, I think it's premature to apportion blame for future losses that haven't even occurred yet. 

[Roy H.]

Also, for those who think that Tony was a major factor in containing Kobe, here's his +/- for the Lakers series:

Game 7:  -9
Game 6: -10
Game 5: -1
Game 4: +4
Game 3: -5
Game 2: +3
Game 1: -11

Overall:  -29

Plus-minus isn't a fool-proof stat, but I think that if Tony was as good as some are saying, his positive impact would be a little more apparent.

During the post-season, Tony was by far last on the team in +/-, at -12.  The next lowest was -1.  Tony was also 4th worst on the team in the regular season, at -28 over the course of the season.

Those stats don't mean that Tony is a useless player.  However, I think they do show that his positive impact is not as good as some are suggesting.

[BballTim]

Mark my post - we won't lose to LA or MIA, just based off of TA choosing to go to MEM.

  SO if we lose to Miami or LA, it won't be because of Kobe or Wade or LeBron?

GF didn't say that, and you know it. 
 

  Apparently not, because he seems to be saying that it makes no difference who guards them, they'll still have the same amount of success on offense.

[Roy H.]

Mark my post - we won't lose to LA or MIA, just based off of TA choosing to go to MEM.

  SO if we lose to Miami or LA, it won't be because of Kobe or Wade or LeBron?

GF didn't say that, and you know it. 
 

  Apparently not, because he seems to be saying that it makes no difference who guards them, they'll still have the same amount of success on offense.

It seems an awful lot like you're putting words in people's mouth to me.  I see GF saying that Tony didn't have the impact that you think he did, but I don't see GF saying that individual defense is irrelevant.