2010 CB Draft: Southeast Division Press Conferences

[Fafnir]

Capable, okay, but still below average. He's good on the ball but undersized and not so good off of it. He can't be a disruptive defensive presence.

I think you're underselling the defense of the pride of Sioux City. He made the All-Defense Second team in 2007 while splitting his time between the 1 and 2. And here are some numbers from last season:

In isolation situations Hinrich was scored on just 42.5% of the time. By comparison, the league average FG% was 46.1% last year. And Arenas, Kirk's new teammate in Washington, allowed his defensive assignment to score 60.8% of the time in the same situation.

And Hinrich was even better closing out shooters:

Spot-Up: 36.1% (0.93 PPP)
Off screen: 41.1% (0.9 PPP)

He has the ability to play both guard positions and defend three positions. In our 2009 playoff series, he guarded Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. He has great versatility.

Where are these stats coming from? I'll also add that his +/- numbers aren't all that good, the Bulls were a better defensive team without him on the court.

Besides my worries with Hinrich aren't from his being iso'ed to death, but from the overall lack of defensive talent/length on the team other than Durant.

Isolation defense may not be a perfect predictor of a player’s overall ability or fit within specific defensive schemes, but it does give us useful clues about their effectiveness and effort and on the other side of the ball.

Excepting maybe adjusted +/- (?), Hinrich's numbers look awfully good and anecdotal evidence - the All Defense Second team honor, the respect of his peers and NBA coaches -  seem to suggest he's above average at either guard position. And as our 2009 first round seven game series demonstrated, able even to guard the 3 in a pinch.

Second team all defense was three years ago when he played the PG position.

He's an above average PG defender, but he's not a good defensive shooting guard. He gives good effort and has an excellent understanding of what to do. Hence why coaches love him as a player. But he lacks the length, quickness, and strengtht to defend NBA 2s at a high level. He also gives up rebounds at that position.

He's being used as the primary defensive wing right now, you really think he's going to be all-nba defense in that role?

[The Walker Wiggle]

In Amar'e's defense, he did draw Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol/Andrew Bynum which are tough covers for an above average defender without a substantially better defender behind him. That's one of the things I like about this team, how the skill sets cover each others weaknesses.

Well except won't Memphis have to deal with those same players? Bynum is in the division and Duncan and Gasol are both in the conference. (Although I suppose Utah could miss the playoffs.) Also can you find much support - coaches, beat writers, statisticians, whoever - carrying the banner for Amar'e's defense? Evidence to the contrary piles up everytime I dig into it.

You also - rightly - called STAT the "2nd best player" on a perennial contender. What changes now that he's the Grizzlies best player by a wide margin?

[indeedproceed]

IP's Quick Ranking Of The SouthEast:

Team: Magic
Positives: Proven superstar power, proven veterans at 4 out of 5 positions in teh starting lineup, good, quality, known depth at the 1,2,3 positons.
Negative: Relying a lot on a player (Biedrins) who last season played soft, and didn't play as well has he had for the 2 prior seasons, despite being in his physical prime. The logical leaders (Joe Johnson, Ty Lawson) are either too young, or not successful enough (Johnson) to give the perception of a well directed squad. Lack of toughness down low from the starters, and relying on a rookie (Alrich) to being that to the unit.

Team: Washington
Positives: Scola and Bynum provide a 1-2 punch down low that also has a nice inside outside 'fit'. Chandler/Ginobli provide a very talented and athletic 2/3 combo, Felton has proven he's a reliable PG in this league. Ginobli, Haslem, and Barbosa should provide enough playoff experience to keep the unit grounded. Bayless, Budinger, Barbosa and Haslem provide excellent depth.
Negatives: Felton is a reliable, but not exceptional starting PG in the league. INjury concerns for Bynum and Ginobli are well founded and could very potentially derail the Boxers season. Also, Rudy T isn't real. He's a Leprachaun.

Team: Atlanta
Positives: Has the best scoring player in the game as thier starting SF in Durant. Durant is also a dedicated and respected clubhouse leader, despite being so young. Chemistry should be strong. Durant is also surrounded by high character top tier role players in Hinrich, Reddick, Varejao, and Okur. Brand, Ridnour, Gomes, and Rasual Butler are fantastic guys to have to round out your 9 man rotation. When everyone is healthy it should be a great defensive starting 5.
Negatives: Durant is surrounded by complementary, but low talent pieces. Nobody besides Durant can create his own shot in the starting 5, and nobody from the bench is that proficient at it either. Durant will be forced to work very hard on defense to stay competitive which he's never had to do before. Okur cannot defend bigger bodied centers, so Varejao will be pulling a lot of double duty. There might not be enough talent around Durant to make this really work.

Team: Charlattle SuperCats
Positives: Stoudemire/Okafor is a great front court, and one that should ensure Amare doesn't need to pull double duty as leading inside scorer/defender every night. Rudy Gay/Shane Battier is a nice mix of young talent and dogged experience. Stuckey, Blair, Tolliver and Head should be an adaquate bench to fill in when the starters sit, and Stuckey has the ability to overtake Duhon for the starters minutes. The majority of the starters stayed relatively healthy last season and Okafor is on his way to shaking the "injury prone" label.
Negatives: Chris Duhon. Gross. Rudy Gay seems to have stagnated the past 2 seasons, and Shane Battier's defense visibly decreased last season, which means Amare being an efficient and capable every night scorer is all the more important. Also there are questions about how Amare will react to not having possibly the best playmaker in basketball (Nash) passing him the ball anymore. Neither Gay nor Duhon are especially good with making plays for other people, and conceivably Shane Battier might be the best passer in the starting 5. That could be a bigger issue though because both Battier and Duhon missed significant time last season.

Team: Miami Heat
Positives: Steve Nash should get every last bit of production Stephen Jackson, Jamario Moon, Lamar Odom, and Channing Frye can offer. Lou WIlliams, Shannon Brown, Darius SOngalia, and Chris Andersen (assuming he gets healthy) should all be more than adaquate players off the bench.
Negatives: Steve Nash is going to have to try and make a winner out of Stephen Jackson, Jamario Moon, Lamar Odom, and Channing Frye. Stephen Jackson and Lamar Odom are both very talented, but the dropoff in quality from Jackson and Odom to Moon and Frye is enormous. Frye was effective last season in large part because he played next Stoudemire. Next to Odom (who has by now proved nothing if he hasn't proved that counting on him for consistent production every night is a bad idea), Frye will be exposed. On the bench only Lou Williams can put the ball in the cup, and even than Lou is still, at this point in his life, figuring out his game.


Verdict:

1) Orlando (57-25): The healthy vets and depth sold me here. I might not put the same faith in them for the post season, but this team screams "regular Season heroes" to me.

2) Washington (53-29): Washington's health issues lead me to believe one or both of Bynum or Manu will miss significant chunks during the regular season. Plus, since I know Nick fancies himself a contender, he won't hesitate to allow one of his cornerstones get 100% healthy even over an injury that might not be incredibly serious.

3) Charlattle SuperCats (51-31): I really hate Duhon and Stuckey. That aside, Rudy Gay/Battier/Stoudemire/Okafor ought to be enough for a 5th seed or something.

4) Atlanta(50-32): In Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant had Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green, Nick Collison, James Harden..etc.... On this Atlanta team the talent, IMO, doesn't really eclipse that, or even equal it. In Oklahoma City with a more talented team, Durant was an 8th overall seed. I really like this team, I feel like they should be in the playoffs, but i don't think I cant rank them higher than 4th in the Southeast.

5) Miami(37-45): I like Steve Nash, I have grown to like Stephen Jackson, and I don't like virtually everyone else on this team. Either its a problem of effort (Odom), size (Frye, 125lbs soaking wet), having one great season and never coming close again (Moon), but its always something with this Miami squad.  

Overall: This is a division full of playoff teams. 1-5 could all very easily be playoff teams. I don't think there is that much separation in terms of talent between teams 1-4, but because of various reasons some teams I ranked higher than lower.

[Fafnir]

In Amar'e's defense, he did draw Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol/Andrew Bynum which are tough covers for an above average defender without a substantially better defender behind him. That's one of the things I like about this team, how the skill sets cover each others weaknesses.

Well except won't Memphis have to deal with those same players? Bynum is in the division and Duncan and Gasol are both in the conference. (Although I suppose Utah could miss the playoffs.) Also can you find much support - coaches, beat writers, statisticians, whoever - carrying the banner for Amar'e's defense? Evidence to the contrary piles up everytime I dig into it.

You also - rightly - called STAT the "2nd best player" on a perennial contender. What changes now that he's the Grizzlies best player by a wide margin?

I have to concur, Amar'e is not a good defender. He has all the physical tools but is a bad one.

[KCattheStripe]

In Amar'e's defense, he did draw Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol/Andrew Bynum which are tough covers for an above average defender without a substantially better defender behind him. That's one of the things I like about this team, how the skill sets cover each others weaknesses.

Well except won't Memphis have to deal with those same players? Bynum is in the division and Duncan and Gasol are both in the conference. (Although I suppose Utah could miss the playoffs.) Also can you find much support - coaches, beat writers, statisticians, whoever - carrying the banner for Amar'e's defense? Evidence to the contrary piles up everytime I dig into it.

You also - rightly - called STAT the "2nd best player" on a perennial contender. What changes now that he's the Grizzlies best player by a wide margin?

I'm not carrying the banner and heralding him as an All NBA Defender, just an above average one, if he wasn't those D'antoni Suns teams couldn't have been as statistically as good a defensive team as they were.

I think there's about a month of growing pains with Amar'e as a number one option, but because of our talent it will be a much smoother transition than the one he'll have this year in New York.

[The Walker Wiggle]

He's an above average PG defender, but he's not a good defensive shooting guard. He gives good effort and has an excellent understanding of what to do. Hence why coaches love him as a player. But he lacks the length, quickness, and strength to defend NBA 2s at a high level. He also gives up rebounds at that position.

He's being used as the primary defensive wing right now, you really think he's going to be all-nba defense in that role?

Well he played a quarter of the Bulls SG minutes that season. Just seems you're over-emphasizing athleticism. (Gay is a worse defender at the 2, even if more disruptive.) And, while, I'd agree that he's not an ideal primary defensive wing, what evidence that he's below average? And how important is rebounding from a SG? (Unless it's uncanny.)

[KCattheStripe]

Verdict:

1) Orlando (57-25): The healthy vets and depth sold me here. I might not put the same faith in them for the post season, but this team screams "regular Season heroes" to me.

2) Washington (53-29): Washington's health issues lead me to believe one or both of Bynum or Manu will miss significant chunks during the regular season. Plus, since I know Nick fancies himself a contender, he won't hesitate to allow one of his cornerstones get 100% healthy even over an injury that might not be incredibly serious.

3) Charlattle SuperCats (51-31): I really hate Duhon and Stuckey. That aside, Rudy Gay/Battier/Stoudemire/Okafor ought to be enough for a 5th seed or something.

4) Atlanta(50-32): In Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant had Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green, Nick Collison, James Harden..etc.... On this Atlanta team the talent, IMO, doesn't really eclipse that, or even equal it. In Oklahoma City with a more talented team, Durant was an 8th overall seed. I really like this team, I feel like they should be in the playoffs, but i don't think I cant rank them higher than 4th in the Southeast.

5) Miami(37-45): I like Steve Nash, I have grown to like Stephen Jackson, and I don't like virtually everyone else on this team. Either its a problem of effort (Odom), size (Frye, 125lbs soaking wet), having one great season and never coming close again (Moon), but its always something with this Miami squad.  

Overall: This is a division full of playoff teams. 1-5 could all very easily be playoff teams. I don't think there is that much separation in terms of talent between teams 1-4, but because of various reasons some teams I ranked higher than lower.

I think these are fair. I have quibbles, but they're fair.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Sorry, KC, for misplacing the new Seattle Supersonics.

Dock my arguments accordingly. (Although I still won't concede that Stoudemire is anything other than a mediocre-to-poor defender and wildly uneven rebounder.)

[Who]

Sorry, KC, for misplacing the new Seattle Supersonics.

Dock my arguments accordingly. (Although I still won't concede that Stoudemire is anything other than a mediocre-to-poor defender and wildly uneven rebounder.)

Poor defender + poor rebounder + non-passer

Amare Stoudemire's offensive game has declined too due to the injuries. He is nowhere near as dangerous in one-on-one situations than he was years ago. Not as explosive athletically, top defenders can limit him easier than they could years ago.

[Fafnir]

He's an above average PG defender, but he's not a good defensive shooting guard. He gives good effort and has an excellent understanding of what to do. Hence why coaches love him as a player. But he lacks the length, quickness, and strength to defend NBA 2s at a high level. He also gives up rebounds at that position.

He's being used as the primary defensive wing right now, you really think he's going to be all-nba defense in that role?

Well he played a quarter of the Bulls SG minutes that season. Just seems you're over-emphasizing athleticism. (Gay is a worse defender at the 2, even if more disruptive.) And, while, I'd agree that he's not an ideal primary defensive wing, what evidence that he's below average? And how important is rebounding from a SG? (Unless it's uncanny.)

If he's giving up a mere extra rebound a game, that's an extra possession for the other team. Its not a huge factor, but it matters.

He's a PG, do you think Rondo would make a good primary wing defender? He's a better defensive PG than Hinrich and did a credible job on Wade at times in one playoff series.

Defend your binkie to death, but I'm not going to try to prove that he can't do something he's never been asked to do.

[KCattheStripe]

Sorry, KC, for misplacing the new Seattle Supersonics.

Dock my arguments accordingly. (Although I still won't concede that Stoudemire is anything other than a mediocre-to-poor defender and wildly uneven rebounder.)

Poor defender + poor rebounder + non-passer

Amare Stoudemire's offensive game has declined too due to the injuries. He is nowhere near as dangerous in one-on-one situations than he was years ago. Not as explosive athletically, top defenders can limit him easier than they could years ago.

Who, Amar'e was injured last year and then came back this year and raised his ppg by 2. I don't think his offensive abilities have decreased at all neither has his athleticism. I'm not that concerned that my primary passing big isn't much of a passer, when I dump it to him I expect the ball to go in the hoop.

[Fafnir]

Sorry, KC, for misplacing the new Seattle Supersonics.

Dock my arguments accordingly. (Although I still won't concede that Stoudemire is anything other than a mediocre-to-poor defender and wildly uneven rebounder.)

Poor defender + poor rebounder + non-passer

Amare Stoudemire's offensive game has declined too due to the injuries. He is nowhere near as dangerous in one-on-one situations than he was years ago. Not as explosive athletically, top defenders can limit him easier than they could years ago.

Who, Amar'e was injured last year and then came back this year and raised his ppg by 2. I don't think his offensive abilities have decreased at all neither has his athleticism. I'm not that concerned that my primary passing big isn't much of a passer, when I dump it to him I expect the ball to go in the hoop.

His TS% has gone down though, he got his 2 more PPG by using more possessions. (about 1.5 per game)

Which is fine, he's still a very efficient scorer.

[KCattheStripe]

Sorry, KC, for misplacing the new Seattle Supersonics.

Dock my arguments accordingly. (Although I still won't concede that Stoudemire is anything other than a mediocre-to-poor defender and wildly uneven rebounder.)

Poor defender + poor rebounder + non-passer

Amare Stoudemire's offensive game has declined too due to the injuries. He is nowhere near as dangerous in one-on-one situations than he was years ago. Not as explosive athletically, top defenders can limit him easier than they could years ago.

Who, Amar'e was injured last year and then came back this year and raised his ppg by 2. I don't think his offensive abilities have decreased at all neither has his athleticism. I'm not that concerned that my primary passing big isn't much of a passer, when I dump it to him I expect the ball to go in the hoop.

His TS% has gone down though, he got his 2 more PPG by using more possessions. (about 1.5 per game)

Which is fine, he's still a very efficient scorer.

I wonder how much of that was due to a decrease in dynamic scorers in the Suns line up?

[jgod213]

Verdict:

1) Orlando (57-25): The healthy vets and depth sold me here. I might not put the same faith in them for the post season, but this team screams "regular Season heroes" to me.

2) Washington (53-29): Washington's health issues lead me to believe one or both of Bynum or Manu will miss significant chunks during the regular season. Plus, since I know Nick fancies himself a contender, he won't hesitate to allow one of his cornerstones get 100% healthy even over an injury that might not be incredibly serious.

3) Charlattle SuperCats (51-31): I really hate Duhon and Stuckey. That aside, Rudy Gay/Battier/Stoudemire/Okafor ought to be enough for a 5th seed or something.

4) Atlanta(50-32): In Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant had Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green, Nick Collison, James Harden..etc.... On this Atlanta team the talent, IMO, doesn't really eclipse that, or even equal it. In Oklahoma City with a more talented team, Durant was an 8th overall seed. I really like this team, I feel like they should be in the playoffs, but i don't think I cant rank them higher than 4th in the Southeast.

5) Miami(37-45): I like Steve Nash, I have grown to like Stephen Jackson, and I don't like virtually everyone else on this team. Either its a problem of effort (Odom), size (Frye, 125lbs soaking wet), having one great season and never coming close again (Moon), but its always something with this Miami squad.  

Overall: This is a division full of playoff teams. 1-5 could all very easily be playoff teams. I don't think there is that much separation in terms of talent between teams 1-4, but because of various reasons some teams I ranked higher than lower.

IP, thanks once more for the effort you're putting into this.  Much appreciated.  I agree that the Heat's lack of interior play will be an issue as well as getting Lamar to 'bring it' every night and in more minutes...

That being said, i have a couple of counter arguments to add in:

1) I think we're severely undervaluing coaching here - and it's something that i probably should've anticipated.  I changed my entire drafting/roster philosophies once i realized i would be getting Phil Jackson with the 3rd pick.  Perhaps that was a mistake, but in my mind if we're allowing coaches then the team who is able to obtain the best coach in the game and one of the all time greats in sports history should really have a distinct advantage.  Obviously Phil is no miracle worker, but when you pair him with Nash/Jackson/and one of his own in Odom, one would think the Zen Master would be able to field a playoff team - despite weaknesses elsewhere.

2) The Nash/Jackson/Lou Williams/Shannon Brown combination is the best guard mix in our division.  The experience, leadership, and general talent here would keep the Heat afloat until Anderson returns.  Once he does i would think that the length between Jax/Moon/Odom/Anderson would make for an active and solid defensive unit.  Channing Frye off the bench is a good weapon at the 4 or 5.

[Fafnir]

Sorry, KC, for misplacing the new Seattle Supersonics.

Dock my arguments accordingly. (Although I still won't concede that Stoudemire is anything other than a mediocre-to-poor defender and wildly uneven rebounder.)

Poor defender + poor rebounder + non-passer

Amare Stoudemire's offensive game has declined too due to the injuries. He is nowhere near as dangerous in one-on-one situations than he was years ago. Not as explosive athletically, top defenders can limit him easier than they could years ago.

Who, Amar'e was injured last year and then came back this year and raised his ppg by 2. I don't think his offensive abilities have decreased at all neither has his athleticism. I'm not that concerned that my primary passing big isn't much of a passer, when I dump it to him I expect the ball to go in the hoop.

His TS% has gone down though, he got his 2 more PPG by using more possessions. (about 1.5 per game)

Which is fine, he's still a very efficient scorer.

I wonder how much of that was due to a decrease in dynamic scorers in the Suns line up?

I don't think the Suns lineup in 2007-2008 is all that lesser offensively than the team last year. Nash has declined somewhat but that's more evident in his minutes, defense, and durability than his offensive game.

2 Marcus Banks G 6-2 200 November 19, 1981 4 University of Nevada, Las Vegas
10 Leandro Barbosa G 6-3 176 November 28, 1982 4 
19 Raja Bell G 6-5 204 September 19, 1976 7 Florida International University
3 Boris Diaw F-C 6-8
2 Gordan Giricek G-F 6-6
33 Grant Hill F 6-8
43 Linton Johnson F 6-8
31 Shawn Marion F 6-7
4 Sean Marks F-C 6-10
13 Steve Nash G 6-3
32 Shaquille O'Neal C 7-1
52 Eric Piatkowski G-F 6-7
54 Brian Skinner F 6-9
1 Amare Stoudemire F-C 6-10 245
8 D.J. Strawberry G 6-5 
29 Alando Tucker F 6-6