Summer MLE targets

[Cman]

I do like the idea of Travis Outlaw.
Let me also throw out the following role player: James Jones (but yes I would prefer Outlaw).

[Brickowski]

Outlaw would be fine if he comes back 100% from his injuries.  That's a big "if."  I would prefer a scrapper like Louis Amundson to James Jones, althoug I expect the Suns to do their best to resign Amundson.

[BballTim]

If we use the MLE next year I doubt it will be solely for one player and I doubt the length of any contracts we give out using the MLE will exceed the 2011-2012 season

So I believe the types of players one would have to sign would be players that would take $2.5-$3 million per year contracts for two years in a make good type of scenario or just that that is their market value

Regarding players we currently have I would expect the following:

Ray Allen given a 2 year deal with the second partially guaranteed with kickers to guarantee it based on performance levels for the first year with a total of $10-14 million for the 2 years

Tony Allen to be given another 2 year contract in the $2.5-$3 million per year area for a total of $5-$6 million

Nate Robinson given a three year deal with a team option on the third year for $16.8 million

Given my criteria for the MLE I would expect the team to make these offers and nothing better

Travis Outlaw - 2 years $7 million
Bobby Simmons - 1 year $2.5 million, maybe less
Dorrel Wright - 2 years $7 million
Rasual Butler - 2 years $8.5 million
Marcus Camby - 1 year $3 million
Rodney Carney - 1 year vet min
Louis Amundson - 2 year $5 million


If they don't sign Nate Robinson then PGs like Steve Blake or Luke Ridnour could become an MLE priority

  Not sure if anyone better's available, but I'd spend the whole wad on the best wing I could get for the money. We've still got Sheed and Baby and getting a younger, more athletic wing player to cut back on Paul and Ray's minutes is our biggest need.

  I don't know about the other offers, but 1 year, 3 mil for Camby? You don't think he'll get significantly more than that? Is he that much worse than Sheed and McDyess were last year?

[snively]

How to spend the MLE is about third priority this summer.
(1) Is resign or S&T Ray Allen
(2) Is sign Pierce to a new deal
(3) Is the FA market place; top concerns are probably the status of Nate Robinson, Marquis Daniels, Tony Allen, more or less in that order.  Some or all of the MLE may be taken up on those players.
(4) If the full MLE is still available after that, then the question becomes whether or not the owners want to dip into it again, and if so, by how much.  I would not be shocked if the owners dont want to spend more $$$, and I can't blame them.  This is, afterall, a business.

(5) Assuming they are open to using the full MLE, of the options mentioned, I like Josh Childress the best, and I think this may be the summer to get him since ATL will likely have its hands full trying to deal with the Joe Johnson situation.

2. Only if Pierce wants a new deal, the Celtics have nothing to do with that if he does want to opt out and for the life of me I don't see why he opts out of a $20 million pay year

3. The only person in this list the C's would bother using the MLE on is Daniels and even then I doubt it

Robinson would be offered the non-Larry Bird 120% raise option or $4.8 million a year, Allen would be offered a 10% raise per year because of his Bird rights owned by the team and I doubt the team offers more than a 20% raise for Daniels as well as he just hasn't performed above a $2.5 million a year player status which would necessitate using the MLE on him

4. and 5. Childress is restricted and if the best we can offer him is a reduced MLE(it will be lower than this year) Atlanta would match in a heartbeat

The MLE will be used because otherwise ownership will be looked upon as giving up on the Big Three window so I would expect them spending it on a couple to three guys because of the lack of returning players

I think targeting one impact player is a better bet than splitting the MLE, unless we can get a big bargain on impact players. That is of course contingent on being able to resign at least 2 of Nate, TA and Marquis.

If Nate and Daniels bolt, then, yes, I'd agree we'd have to split the MLE.

[sk7326]

Camby might very well go back to the Clippers - look at their roster, they have a pretty good chance to put a 50 win team together next year depending on Blake Griffin's ability to heal.  

I am assuming Robinson goes - he is still young, he will look for someone to overpay him.  

Carney is a good upside play, as is Amundsen.  Simmons is a terrible player, though for the minimum he is not awful.  Mike Miller would be a perfect fit if the years are a match.  Travis Outlaw I don't think would come - he was leaving Portland for more money and more minutes ... coming here does not solve either.  

Drew Gooden is a horrible defensive player, but for short money he is a good option.  Craig Smith would be an interesting value play with the midlevel, as would Joe Alexander if he were cheap - Alexander has shown no ability to play but he has lottery level athletic ability, and could be a fit for a flyer.

I am very much pro splitting the MLE - the history of full MLE guys is bad ... mostly because teams feel a need to overpay somebody just to say they used it. 

[the_Bird]

If the team is kinda "meh" in the playoffs, I wouldn't expect that we'll be able to pick up any impact players with the MLE.  Thinking the most they'll offer anyone is two years, so that they can get some cap space in 2012 if a total rebuild is called for.  Now, if we win a title or just barely miss out, I could see them definantely going for someone like Mike Miller.

I'd love Camby, but he's only here if they decide they won't be able to sign Perk to an extension.  Perk doesn't seem inclined to walk, but if they think someone's going to massively overpay him in twelve months, they might trade him for value and have someone like Camby in his place.

[sk7326]

If the team is kinda "meh" in the playoffs, I wouldn't expect that we'll be able to pick up any impact players with the MLE.  Thinking the most they'll offer anyone is two years, so that they can get some cap space in 2012 if a total rebuild is called for.  Now, if we win a title or just barely miss out, I could see them definantely going for someone like Mike Miller.

I'd love Camby, but he's only here if they decide they won't be able to sign Perk to an extension.  Perk doesn't seem inclined to walk, but if they think someone's going to massively overpay him in twelve months, they might trade him for value and have someone like Camby in his place.

The franchise has a new "anchor" contract ... it used to be KG in 2012 ... the year all non-essential contracts had to expire by for the Celtics to be able to clear the deck and truly rebuild.  Now it it Rondo's.  So if Perk wanted to agree to 7-8 million a year (assuming current CBA conditions - that is not at all an unreasonable salary for what Perk brings) that lines up with Rondo's contract years wise ... it makes sense.  Anything worse and you have to look at it hard. 

[the_Bird]

It's just Rondo's contract, plus hopefully Perk will be playing on a reasonable extension.  That's only $10M committed for 2012-2013, plus whatever else gets added in the next few years.  Unless they decide that the "window" really is a couple of years longer than they originally planned on, I'm thinking they'll be VERY hestiant to take on contracts extending beyond that.

If/when the team's championship aspirations are over, I'm thinking Danny's more inclined to blow the whole thing up (except Rondo) rather than try and muddle through as an OK-but-not-great squad.  No trying to rebuild on the fly.

Of course, who knows whgat the CBA might look like by then; the rules could be completely different. 

[Cman]

So if Perk wanted to agree to 7-8 million a year (assuming current CBA conditions - that is not at all an unreasonable salary for what Perk brings) that lines up with Rondo's contract years wise ... it makes sense.  Anything worse and you have to look at it hard. 

I think 7-8M/yr for Perkins would be considered a "hometown discount".  I bet the number is closer to 9M/yr.

[PLamb]

If the team is kinda "meh" in the playoffs, I wouldn't expect that we'll be able to pick up any impact players with the MLE.  Thinking the most they'll offer anyone is two years, so that they can get some cap space in 2012 if a total rebuild is called for.  Now, if we win a title or just barely miss out, I could see them definantely going for someone like Mike Miller.

I'd love Camby, but he's only here if they decide they won't be able to sign Perk to an extension.  Perk doesn't seem inclined to walk, but if they think someone's going to massively overpay him in twelve months, they might trade him for value and have someone like Camby in his place.

The franchise has a new "anchor" contract ... it used to be KG in 2012 ... the year all non-essential contracts had to expire by for the Celtics to be able to clear the deck and truly rebuild.  Now it it Rondo's.  So if Perk wanted to agree to 7-8 million a year (assuming current CBA conditions - that is not at all an unreasonable salary for what Perk brings) that lines up with Rondo's contract years wise ... it makes sense.  Anything worse and you have to look at it hard. 

I have to disagree with this

The benchmark, all-important contract that the Celtics have that financially the rest of the future of this club will be predicated upon building around is still KG's

During the 2012-13 season Rondo's contract is the only contract on the books and the only other contract I would expect to be on the books thereafter is a starter for that season and the only one I see currently with the club is Perkins

If he is extended they(Rondo and Perk) and first round draft picks will be the only players on the payroll for that season and every other contract the C's give out from this point will only last as long as KG's, I am positive of that

Nothing else makes any sense financiallyfor a team that would be rebuilding

The only other chance the C's had of having someone on the payroll other than those two players and draft picks was if the Celtics had traded Ray Allen for a young impact player and that didn't happen

For these reasons I say the Celtics will try to sign Ray, Tony and Nate to 2 year contracts and then use the MLE to split and add players at bargain type levels on two year contracts

If the Celtics have only 4-5 players under contract for $20 million or so entering the summer of 2012 off season they could conceivably add two max level free agents to a core of Perk, Rondo and a couple draft picks

Possible free agents that year could include:

Carmelo Anthony
Ersan Ilaysova
Goran Dragic
Al Horford
Joakim Noah
Aaron Afflalo
Aaron Brooks
Marc Gasol
Wilson Chandler
Yi Jianlian
Kevin Durant
Jeff Green
Thadeus Young
Jared Dudley
Greg Oden
Corey Brewer
Derrick Rose
JJ Hickson
Nene Hilario
Anthony Randolph
Roy Hibbert
Eric Gordon
OJ Mayo
Michael Beasley
Carlos Delfino
Kevin Love
Brook Lopez
Danilo Gallinari
Russell Westbrook

And more.....

depending upon who doesn't sign extensions on their rookie deals in 2011 and whether teams will be willing to match large offers for restricted free agents in 2012, the Celtics could be in a great position in the summer of 2012 if they pattern all their near future decisions around the length of KG's contract

[BballTim]

I am very much pro splitting the MLE - the history of full MLE guys is bad ... mostly because teams feel a need to overpay somebody just to say they used it. 

  I think you run into more trouble if you go the max number of years at the full MLE than the full MLE itself. Not that they're available, but Artest and Ariza were good MLE signings. If we have Sheed and Baby and we can sign Nate and/or Tony without the MLE, we don't need too many more bench players. Maybe a Mike Miller type who could split time with Ray. But I think that they'd get a lot more bang from 1 impact player (for a bench player, that is) than 2-3 players for depth.

[Jon]

Thing is, if we get a big time wing for the MLE like Miller or outlaw and keep TA, Ray, and Nate, how much do we need Marquis Daniels?

That's not to say I want him to go: I like him a lot.  However, even at a year older, Paul and Ray are still going to play at least 32 mpg.  That only leaves 32 mpg of backup minutes at the 2 and 3 spots.  Even if Miller/Outlaw only played 25 mpg, that only leaves 7 mpg for a 4th wing.  I think a combination of TA or Nate playing with Rondo could handle that. 

Again, that's not to say I don't want Daniels.  However, if we get a big name wing at the MLE and we retain everyone else, the need for him is far less. 

[Bankshot]

If the team is kinda "meh" in the playoffs, I wouldn't expect that we'll be able to pick up any impact players with the MLE.  Thinking the most they'll offer anyone is two years, so that they can get some cap space in 2012 if a total rebuild is called for.  Now, if we win a title or just barely miss out, I could see them definantely going for someone like Mike Miller.

I'd love Camby, but he's only here if they decide they won't be able to sign Perk to an extension.  Perk doesn't seem inclined to walk, but if they think someone's going to massively overpay him in twelve months, they might trade him for value and have someone like Camby in his place.

The franchise has a new "anchor" contract ... it used to be KG in 2012 ... the year all non-essential contracts had to expire by for the Celtics to be able to clear the deck and truly rebuild.  Now it it Rondo's.  So if Perk wanted to agree to 7-8 million a year (assuming current CBA conditions - that is not at all an unreasonable salary for what Perk brings) that lines up with Rondo's contract years wise ... it makes sense.  Anything worse and you have to look at it hard. 

I have to disagree with this

The benchmark, all-important contract that the Celtics have that financially the rest of the future of this club will be predicated upon building around is still KG's

During the 2012-13 season Rondo's contract is the only contract on the books and the only other contract I would expect to be on the books thereafter is a starter for that season and the only one I see currently with the club is Perkins

If he is extended they(Rondo and Perk) and first round draft picks will be the only players on the payroll for that season and every other contract the C's give out from this point will only last as long as KG's, I am positive of that

Nothing else makes any sense financiallyfor a team that would be rebuilding

The only other chance the C's had of having someone on the payroll other than those two players and draft picks was if the Celtics had traded Ray Allen for a young impact player and that didn't happen

For these reasons I say the Celtics will try to sign Ray, Tony and Nate to 2 year contracts and then use the MLE to split and add players at bargain type levels on two year contracts

If the Celtics have only 4-5 players under contract for $20 million or so entering the summer of 2012 off season they could conceivably add two max level free agents to a core of Perk, Rondo and a couple draft picks

Possible free agents that year could include:

Carmelo Anthony
Ersan Ilaysova
Goran Dragic
Al Horford
Joakim Noah
Aaron Afflalo
Aaron Brooks
Marc Gasol
Wilson Chandler
Yi Jianlian
Kevin Durant
Jeff Green
Thadeus Young
Jared Dudley
Greg Oden
Corey Brewer
Derrick Rose
JJ Hickson
Nene Hilario
Anthony Randolph
Roy Hibbert
Eric Gordon
OJ Mayo
Michael Beasley
Carlos Delfino
Kevin Love
Brook Lopez
Danilo Gallinari
Russell Westbrook

And more.....

depending upon who doesn't sign extensions on their rookie deals in 2011 and whether teams will be willing to match large offers for restricted free agents in 2012, the Celtics could be in a great position in the summer of 2012 if they pattern all their near future decisions around the length of KG's contract

Getting Carmelo or Durant and Noah would be sweet.

[Cman]

If the Celtics have only 4-5 players under contract for $20 million or so entering the summer of 2012 off season they could conceivably add two max level free agents to a core of Perk, Rondo and a couple draft picks

Chasing after top level FAs is a risky business for a team like the Celtics located in (a) a state that taxes income and (b) a cold weather place.

A less risky option would be to trade for a top level player (the way DA did for KG and to a slightly lesser extend RA).

[jasail]

Question:

We do not need to use the MLE to resign any of our upcoming FA's, correct?  We can resign Ray, Scal and Tony up to max contracts and we can offer Nate and Quis up to 120% of their current contract?

So in theory we could give Nate and Tony a bit of a raise and Ray could take a team friendly contract if he wanted to? Quis would be more difficult b/c $2.4 probably isn't enough to resign him.  But we could have a roster that looked like?:

Rondo/Nate
RA/TA
PP
KG/BBD
Perk/Rasheed

which would allow us to plug up the remaining holes w/the MLE for a big wing (outlaw, miller ect), the min for a 5th big (rebounder) and then a draft pick or two to round out the roster. with that roster would we not be close to the salary we are this year assuming MLE + Nate + Tony = difference in Ray's contracts + Scal.

if that is the case the question would be do you think that Wyc opens the purse strings and pays the lux tax on this team?  particularly if he doesn't think that they are contender material?  does that in part depend on how far they go this year in the playoffs (can't imagine that if they get to finals or win the finals that he can start to shed salary)? And also if they can restructure PP over the summer?