The Sox are officially after Adrian Gonzalez

[yall hate]

I think Buchholtz and Victor Martinez + Prospect for Mauer is a more likely trade than any trade for Gonz at this point.

Mauer would cost MUCH more then that, lol. 

[yall hate]

Offer Youk and Buckholz for Gonzalez, and get the deal done. Well worth it.

Why would that make sense for San Diego?  Youk only has 1 year longer than Gonzalez on his contract, but will be making more money per year I believe. 

San Diego wants prospects with very little service time, so they can have them come up together to rebuild the franchise.  They do not want older guys who are going to be making a lot of money.

yea that trade is just silly. youk is 3 years older, makes more money, etc...

[Vermont Green]

I think Buchholtz and Victor Martinez + Prospect for Mauer is a more likely trade than any trade for Gonz at this point.

Mauer would cost MUCH more then that, lol. 

That depends entirely on the likelihood that Minni can resign him.  If they feel like they are close and will eventually get something done, then yeah, it would take more but if they are still $M's appart in their discussion, Minni could be left with nothing but draft picks after this year.  It is in Minni's favor that only they know how close they are to signing.  Also, Boston only makes the trade if they are allowed to agree on an extension for Mauer.  Minni won't get even that much talent for a 1 year or less rental.

[yall hate]

I think Buchholtz and Victor Martinez + Prospect for Mauer is a more likely trade than any trade for Gonz at this point.

Mauer would cost MUCH more then that, lol. 

That depends entirely on the likelihood that Minni can resign him.  If they feel like they are close and will eventually get something done, then yeah, it would take more but if they are still $M's appart in their discussion, Minni could be left with nothing but draft picks after this year.  It is in Minni's favor that only they know how close they are to signing.  Also, Boston only makes the trade if they are allowed to agree on an extension for Mauer.  Minni won't get even that much talent for a 1 year or less rental.

no it doesnt.  Mauer could come out and publically say there is absolutely zero chance I resign with Minny and they could still get more. you dont think another team would top that? please

[MBz]

I just don't think we're going to go after either of these guys.  The Red Sox are going to be successful enough to the point where we won't want to give up that much to get Gonzalez during the regular season.  Mauer is a lost cause for everyone, I really do think he'll re-sign with the Twins.  Even if he is traded, it's going to take big time prospects to get him and by big time prospects basically the entire farm would have to be sent to get him.

[nickagneta]

I think Buchholtz and Victor Martinez + Prospect for Mauer is a more likely trade than any trade for Gonz at this point.

Mauer would cost MUCH more then that, lol. 

That depends entirely on the likelihood that Minni can resign him.  If they feel like they are close and will eventually get something done, then yeah, it would take more but if they are still $M's appart in their discussion, Minni could be left with nothing but draft picks after this year.  It is in Minni's favor that only they know how close they are to signing.  Also, Boston only makes the trade if they are allowed to agree on an extension for Mauer.  Minni won't get even that much talent for a 1 year or less rental.

no it doesnt.  Mauer could come out and publically say there is absolutely zero chance I resign with Minny and they could still get more. you dont think another team would top that? please

We've had this discussion with Vermont before yall. I agree. That package would not only never get it done, I find it comical to think that Minnesota would even think about taking Victor Martinez back in any deal. If Minnesota is taking a deal for Mauer they are going to look for high quality talent with long term cost control. Buchholz, Bard, Kelly, Anderson and maybe a prospect player is what it's going to have to take to get a player like Mauer.

This then goes back to my conversation of relative value I had with winsomme. Buchholz and Kelly might not make the Padres better right away or even make the Sox better right away more so than a player like Gonzalez, but they hold tremendous value relative to the Sox because they could be major pieces to the deal in landing Mauer if he becomes available. And Theo might already know what Minnesota would be looking for for Mauer.

Why would giving up Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly and a player be too much right now for the Sox? Because Theo might already knoiw that Buchholz, Kelly and that other player will be needed to get Mauer. So if you're going to give them up NOW, you give up ANY chance of landing Mauer later. Hence the value to the Sox of such players being so high. If I could trade the Sox prospects for a star I want Mauer at catcher before I would want Gonzalez at 1st base. Especially when the Sox have the flexibility of moving Martinez to 1st, Youk to third and move Beltre without seriously effecting the overall defense of the team much.

[winsomme]

I think Buchholtz and Victor Martinez + Prospect for Mauer is a more likely trade than any trade for Gonz at this point.

Mauer would cost MUCH more then that, lol. 

That depends entirely on the likelihood that Minni can resign him.  If they feel like they are close and will eventually get something done, then yeah, it would take more but if they are still $M's appart in their discussion, Minni could be left with nothing but draft picks after this year.  It is in Minni's favor that only they know how close they are to signing.  Also, Boston only makes the trade if they are allowed to agree on an extension for Mauer.  Minni won't get even that much talent for a 1 year or less rental.

no it doesnt.  Mauer could come out and publically say there is absolutely zero chance I resign with Minny and they could still get more. you dont think another team would top that? please

We've had this discussion with Vermont before yall. I agree. That package would not only never get it done, I find it comical to think that Minnesota would even think about taking Victor Martinez back in any deal. If Minnesota is taking a deal for Mauer they are going to look for high quality talent with long term cost control. Buchholz, Bard, Kelly, Anderson and maybe a prospect player is what it's going to have to take to get a player like Mauer.

This then goes back to my conversation of relative value I had with winsomme. Buchholz and Kelly might not make the Padres better right away or even make the Sox better right away more so than a player like Gonzalez, but they hold tremendous value relative to the Sox because they could be major pieces to the deal in landing Mauer if he becomes available. And Theo might already know what Minnesota would be looking for for Mauer.

Why would giving up Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly and a player be too much right now for the Sox? Because Theo might already knoiw that Buchholz, Kelly and that other player will be needed to get Mauer. So if you're going to give them up NOW, you give up ANY chance of landing Mauer later. Hence the value to the Sox of such players being so high. If I could trade the Sox prospects for a star I want Mauer at catcher before I would want Gonzalez at 1st base. Especially when the Sox have the flexibility of moving Martinez to 1st, Youk to third and move Beltre without seriously effecting the overall defense of the team much.

that's not relative value, nick. that's simply going after a different guy who's also not really on the market. Trading Buch, Ells, and Kelly for A-Gon doesn't take you out of a deal for Mauer. It gets you A-Gon who fills a clear need.

Mauer could also fill that need, but he's simply a different player. It doesn't tell you anything about whether or not trading Buch, Ells, and Kelly is a good deal for A-Gon relative to a Mauer deal because that deal is just as unknowable as a deal for A-Gon.

Your position seems to be: I wouldn't trade Buch, Ells, and Kelly for A-Gon because I would rather Mauer. But what about the unknowable elements of that possible trade? What if the price tag on Mauer is Buch, Ells, and Bard? Or Buch, Bard, and Kelly?

I mean, everything in these situations is relative.

You said it yourself. You would rather Mauer. Okay, well maybe that's because Mauer is a better player and in that case the price tag would be higher. Is Mauer more or less likely to be traded than A-Gon? Who knows? I mean both teams  would be losing the same franchise player that you are arguing would cripple ticket sales.

It just doesn't seem to make sense to me that Buch, Ells, Kelly is more valuable to us to get Mauer than it would be to SD in a trade where we received A-Gon. Not to the extent that SD wouldn't even consider it, but Minny would jump at it...

The bottom line IMO is that this package of players puts you in play for a major trade. If you personally would rather pass on A-Gon because you prefer Mauer for a similar package of players, that's fine. But you could just as easily end up with neither by making that decision.

So again, I think we are left with the same question: Is Buch, Ells, Kelly a good deal for the Sox and SD? I think based on our team needs it is...

You know, I was listening to Theo's interview on The Hub the other day and I am a little concerned. I understand what he was saying about having to follow through on one of their off season plans and the 'rebuilding the offense' plan didn't seem doable (thus he went pitching and defense), but he says stuff like "a bat is easier to pick up than an arm"

this refers to the decision to spend money on Lackey instead of going after an A-Gon etc...and giving up the prospects. And he also mentioned how we have a lineup of all guys who could hit 25 HRs as a way to fill the void left by losing Bay.

This worries me in a way that is best expressed by the late George Carlin: (softened version)

'I never dated a ten, but I once dated five twos....'

Yeah, some bat might be easier to get than an elite pitcher, but not an elite bat.

An elite hitter is way harder to get IMO than an elite pitcher.  and we need a '10' hitter, not five twos.

[winsomme]

one other point on the deep lineup vs elite hitter question. I actually think we are wasting V-Mart as a hitter by catching him.

It seems that a lot of people point to the VMart upgrade over Tek in the batting order. This is pretty clear, but I think what is less clear is the impact VMart could have playing first base. At first, I think he could be a legit big time hitter - slg % in 550 range.

To me, it is more important to have guys that can hit like that and be that kind of presence in the lineup than it is to get a hitter like Tek out of the lineup (this goes back to the 10 vs 5 twos angle).

I actually would rather have had them catch Tek and move VMart to 1st. I was hoping that was the plan when the traded for that catcher from TEX (letting him be the backup to Tek and to learn the position for the next year).

Tek in the 8 hole really doesn't bother me - especially when it could get you an elite hitter in the 3 or 4 hole....

but with leg fatigue of catching, I don't think VMart can hit like an elite hitter as our main catcher. I think it started to show in the playoffs....

[housecall]

one other point on the deep lineup vs elite hitter question. I actually think we are wasting V-Mart as a hitter by catching him.

It seems that a lot of people point to the VMart upgrade over Tek in the batting order. This is pretty clear, but I think what is less clear is the impact VMart could have playing first base. At first, I think he could be a legit big time hitter - slg % in 550 range.

To me, it is more important to have guys that can hit like that and be that kind of presence in the lineup than it is to get a hitter like Tek out of the lineup (this goes back to the 10 vs 5 twos angle).

I actually would rather have had them catch Tek and move VMart to 1st. I was hoping that was the plan when the traded for that catcher from TEX (letting him be the backup to Tek and to learn the position for the next year).

Tek in the 8 hole really doesn't bother me - especially when it could get you an elite hitter in the 3 or 4 hole....

but with leg fatigue of catching, I don't think VMart can hit like an elite hitter as our main catcher. I think it started to show in the playoffs....

tp..i have felt the same way and was hoping that Theo was going in that direction. 

[Vermont Green]

ok, first think about the market for Mauer.  How many teams can actually pay him if he goes that route?  Sox and Yankees for sure but are there really that many others that could pay $25M for a catcher?

The second thing about the Twins is that if they start the season with Mauer but no extension, chances are they are still in the hunt to win the central.  If they are in the hunt, how could they trade their best player at the deadline?

So basically, they get left with nothing. That is why they need to decide if they can sign him right away and then work on a trade if they can't.

I know that traditionally, a player like Victor Martinez in not included in such a trade as this but he is relatively short money and would allow the Twins to stay in the hunt even without Mauer.  He would be their "bridge" to borrow Theo's term.

Hey, I am just having fun with this but I do think the Sox have a real chance at Mauer as one of the short list of teams that can even be in the discussion.  Who could the Yankees offer for example?

[Rondo2287]

one other point on the deep lineup vs elite hitter question. I actually think we are wasting V-Mart as a hitter by catching him.

It seems that a lot of people point to the VMart upgrade over Tek in the batting order. This is pretty clear, but I think what is less clear is the impact VMart could have playing first base. At first, I think he could be a legit big time hitter - slg % in 550 range.

To me, it is more important to have guys that can hit like that and be that kind of presence in the lineup than it is to get a hitter like Tek out of the lineup (this goes back to the 10 vs 5 twos angle).

I actually would rather have had them catch Tek and move VMart to 1st. I was hoping that was the plan when the traded for that catcher from TEX (letting him be the backup to Tek and to learn the position for the next year).

Tek in the 8 hole really doesn't bother me - especially when it could get you an elite hitter in the 3 or 4 hole....

but with leg fatigue of catching, I don't think VMart can hit like an elite hitter as our main catcher. I think it started to show in the playoffs....

3 games is a pretty unfairly small sample size dont you think?

[jasail]

Read through part of this thread and I have to weigh in.  

At this point I just don't see a trade happening before the deadline for two reasons.  First they brought in Beltre for $9M and if they brought in A-Gonz they would be spending that $9M on what???  Plus it would put them into the luxury tax which they just traded Kotchman for Hall (a downgrade in talent imo) to get under the tax.  Also, if they brought in AGonz they would have 3 players making > $30M combined vying for one 3B spot.  That hardly makes sense.

As for the players the Sox's aren't going to give up Buch, Ells and Kelly for anyone.  Two years ago the scoffed at giving that up for Johan Santana who was a 28 yo CY Young winner.  And you know they value pitching more than hitting.

If Buchholz improves upon his 2008 performance I don't see him getting traded at all.  He is the heir apparent to Beckett's spot in the rotation and gives them some leverage in negotiations if JB wants to stay in Boston.  He also gives them a walk away option.  If he regresses or stays around that 4.20 ERA level then he will be trade bait.  IMO Buchholz is a top flight pitcher in the NL, particularly pitching in the NL West in those pitcher friendly ballparks and against those inept lineups.  

Ellsbury is absolutely a trade chip.  They have not been impressed with his defense in CF, thus moving him to LF.  His OBP is not what they want w/a leadoff hitter, so Scuatro was brought in as insurance.  He is also a great NL player as he hits for average, covers a lot of ground in the OF and steals bases.  But he is the starting LF and right now if you get rid of him Hermida is the starting LF and the Sox's have to go make a move for a 4th OF, putting them over the luxury tax.  That is a huge risk as Ellsbury is a known quantity and Hermida is not.  

Kelly for all intents and purposes is "untouchable," IMO this means he is touchable with the right combination of players but is not a throw in in a deal that they are already spending too much. He is more polished than Lester or Buchholz were at his age.  He has command and control of 4 ML pitches, and scouting reports show he has great mechanics.    

So if they make this trade they are giving up three cost controlled players with tremendous upside for a guy who is under control for one more year before requiring a >$10M raise.  It would force over the luxury tax threshold and tie up almost $40M in 4 corner IFs.  

A deal may get made at the deadline with the following conditions.  Ellsbury shows no improvement in OBP, Buchholz does not continue improving, Anderson has a bounce back year, some of the B-level prospects tear up their perspective league.  If so this may allow they to build a package around either Buch or Ellsbury. Plus it gives them time to evaluate who is who and what is what with their upside projects and the offensive output from their run prevention defense.  

IMO the best deal the Sox's may give for AGonz is Ellsbury, Kelly + a Reddick/Kalish/Anderson type.  They would be giving up too much, taking on too much and would be over the luxury tax threshold (which may be more palatable on a 1/2 season contract).    

As for Mauer, as much as I'd like to see the Soxs get him i have to imagine the Twins are going to do whatever it takes to sign him to an extension before he hits the market.  Again this won't happen until the deadline and if the Twins are in the hunt I doubt they get rid of the face of the franchise for more than a kings ransom.  Plus i don't know the value of Ellsbury or Westmoreland to this team as they already have Gomez in CF and he was the return on Santana.  Despite his fairly average play I can't imagine they are ready to say they got fleeced. So I have to imagine it would require Buchholz.

And for moving VMart to first I'd rather see him take Papi's spot as DH after this season.  He is well below average in the field at 1B and it would require Youkilis to move to 3b where he has been mediocore in a small sample size over the last two seasons. So you upgrade defense and offense at catcher, you downgrade defense at 1b and offense stays similar, you upgrade offense at 3b and loose a ton of defense and you loose a cost controlled starter with top of the rotation potential who you either replace with Wake, who is going to end up on the DL or Bowden/Tazawa who will have a ERA 1 point higher than Clay.  

The improvement at that point is fairly marginal.  And that is a huge risk considering the talent you give up from the ML roster and in the minors and the cost of the extension Mauer will require.

There is no doubt that the Red Sox's will likely need to upgrade their offense come mid-summer.  But they may be able to get a more marginal upgrade (a VMart type player) for a significantly smaller cost in terms of prospects and contract than a AGonz/Mauer type upgrade.

This may make the difference between those two types of deals negligible as they will likely be able to maintain a number of productive cost controlled players on the ML roster.  They may be able to get a Derrick Lee, Lance Berkman, Brad Hawpe type hitter for B+ level prospects.  As opposed to giving up ML talent and top tier prospects for Mauer and AGonz.  The offensive production is marginally less and they don't get the impact bat the future out of it, but the don't gut the system or the ML roster.  

This front office has continuously refused to overspend in terms of prospects and have looked for bargins elsewhere to fill those needs.  I don't see that MO changing.

[jasail]

As for starting Tek again this season I don't even know what to say to that.  IMO he isn't even a #2 catcher, his performance at the plate and behind the plate was abysmal last season.  Including the inability to hit from the left hand side and throw anyone out. 

Looking at the offensive the OPB/OPS for the Tek/VMart/Youk lineup would be .377/.869 using 2009 numbers with Victor playing only at 1B despite the small sample size and the disparity in splits between last years offensive production at 1B and years prior (last year being significantly favorable. 

The VMart/Youk/Beltre lineup would be .368/.849 using Beltre's 2008 numbers b/c of injury that limited him to 1/2 a season and that they are almost exactly at his career average.

Therefore, the offensive upgrade is marginal even though the stats used clearly favor the former, due to SSS and splits. 

However, the defensive downgrade is not palatable.  The current line up saves 13.6 more than average while the Tek/VMart/Youk gives up 7.9 more than average.  Which is almost 22 more runs which in reality is probably less than the marginal upgrade on offense. 

This defensive downgrade also includes getting rid of a 10.4 and 11.9 runs saved at corner infield for a 2.4 and a -2.5. 
With the entire pitching staff boasting solid groundball:flyball ratios the runs saved will probably be even higher than predicted. Plus they would be much more willing to throw sinkers and get ground balls with Beltre and Youks at the corners than Youks and VMart. 

I agree that moving VMart from Catcher is a good move.  But not if the replacement is Tek or you move him to 1B.  There is not a defensive upgrade between Tek and Vmart and moving VMart to 1B isn't the answer either b/c it moves requires a decrease in defense at 3B.

If they could find a catcher that could hit about .260/.350/.780 and play league average defense then I would like to see VMart as full time DH in 2011.  Otherwise I think it is making a "move" just to make a "move" and probably to the detriment of the team.

[yall hate]

ok, first think about the market for Mauer.  How many teams can actually pay him if he goes that route?  Sox and Yankees for sure but are there really that many others that could pay $25M for a catcher?

The second thing about the Twins is that if they start the season with Mauer but no extension, chances are they are still in the hunt to win the central.  If they are in the hunt, how could they trade their best player at the deadline?

So basically, they get left with nothing. That is why they need to decide if they can sign him right away and then work on a trade if they can't.

I know that traditionally, a player like Victor Martinez in not included in such a trade as this but he is relatively short money and would allow the Twins to stay in the hunt even without Mauer.  He would be their "bridge" to borrow Theo's term.

Hey, I am just having fun with this but I do think the Sox have a real chance at Mauer as one of the short list of teams that can even be in the discussion.  Who could the Yankees offer for example?

you do realize the sox didnt even have the second highest payroll right?  they didnt have the third highest.  They were 4th.  there are nine teams over 100 million.  12 over 96 million.  the market would be there.

as for the yanks offering something, they could offer a package which includes jesus montero (a highly regsrded catcher), joba, phil hughes, etc...  many many high upside prospects. 

Do the sox have a chance? yes.  but they arent the only one.  thats just wrong.