The Sox are officially after Adrian Gonzalez

[Roy Hobbs]

so your argument is that Buch,Ells,Kelly is not the price tag for A-Gon, but SD wouldn't do the deal if offered.....

that means you are saying the price tag is higher than Buch, Ells, Kelly....not lower...

the seller determines the price tag. If SD wants more than Buch, Ells, Kelly, then that's the price tag...

thus, my assertion that we should go beyond what we think A-Gon should go for in order to get the deal done.
thats not correct.  I am saying that from our front office's perspective (and really, and smart front office), that price tag is too high.  HOWEVER, from SD's perspective, that might not be enough (due to the reasons which countless people have already mentioned as to why they dont need to and wont trade him now).  do you see?

Seller's determine the price but the market dictates the final selling price. SD could ask for the world but if no one is willing to pay it then that's not the price the will receive and they will have to rework their price.

But even right now, SD won't take even that price. I have already gone over the reason why and don't want to repeat myself but eventually, I think SD will probably not get a package better than Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly and someone else for Gonzalez. That's a ridiculously high price. Heck, as time passes they might not even want Buch and Ellsbury as they get closer to being arbitration eligible. They may want all minor leaguers on the verge of the Show to max out their cost control on those players contracts, which, as we know is the reason they need to move Gonzalez, eventually, in the first place.

this works both ways, nick. what if Buch, Ells, and Kelly struggle this season and A-Gon continues to put up his big numbers? is it then too much to offer that package of guys...

the point is: there is a price to get A-Gon right now...that's why the discussions took place.

IMO Hoyer was looking for something along the lines of Buch, Ells, Kelly and Theo didn't want to go there....

And as I have said and Hoyer has said, Gonzalez, right now, can't be had for any price. Right now trading Gonzalez would be a before the season would be a career suicidal move for Hoyer. The trade can not and will not happen, regardless of price.

I disagree. I think it's posturing. I think he knows that trading A-Gon when his value is high is the smart thing to do because right now, the Padres are not very good....and the thing that really puts people in the seats is a good team not one big-name player and that's why we saw all those reports a few weeks back about talks between the Sox and the Pads

I think Theo thought the price tag was too high (i disagree with him) and that's why Hoyer has now moved to the "we're not looking to trade A-Gon" stance...

So you really think he'll sell more tickets in San Diego because he is going to make the team better THIS YEAR by trading away the superstar 40-50 HR, 120-140 RBI, home grown slugging first baseman for a speedy center fielder with a bad arm and no power, a potential #2 starter(potential being the operative word) and some highly touted prospects??

You really think the baseball ticket buying clientele out in southern California is going to believe that the subtraction of an AllStar hitting firstbaseman with MVP stats and addition of young potential players is going to make the Padres better this year and sell tickets??

Are you serious??

First, like winsomme said, I think you're *really* down on Ellsbury and Buchholz if that's how you regard them.  They're both starters on a championship caliber team, and have done great things very early in their respective careers.

Second, while I doubt San Diego will trade Gonzalez yet, I don't think they'll sell a ton of tickets until they field a winning team.  The Padres are going to have to ask themselves of whether they'd be more capable of winning with the prospects they receive in a trade, versus with the compensatory picks they receive in two years when Gonzalez leaves as a free agent.  If that's their analysis, winsomme may be right that they trade Gonzalez at peak value. 

Teams will pay a premium for the fact that Gonzalez is cost-controlled for two years, and San Diego very well may want to take advantage of that.  I mean, if their analysis suggests that they can't retain him long term, why not cash him in now, rather than in a year or a year and a half, when his value has declined?

I'm okay with the Sox not breaking the bank for Gonzalez, but I disagree that San Diego doesn't have motivation to do a deal now.  They have a ton of motivation, so long as other teams are offering a fair price, rather than a bargain one.

[winsomme]

Answer my question first and then I will answer yours.

I think Buch is a top of the rotation type pitcher and think that he could win 18 games this season in the NL.

I think Ells is a .300 hitter who might be the best base stealer in the league and would flourish in the NL. he's built for the NL.

I think Kelly is another top of the rotation pitcher and could be in the majors by the end of this season.

I also think that the Padres are as constructed headed for another 3rd or 4th place finish in NL West and that doesn't sell tickets.

This is why IMO Hoyer and Theo were talking just a few weeks ago about trading the untradable  A-Gon....but he wants to get his asking price.

You didn't answer my question.

You really think the baseball ticket buying clientele out in southern California is going to believe that the subtraction of an AllStar hitting firstbaseman with MVP stats and addition of young potential players is going to make the Padres better this year and sell tickets??

you're missing my point. My point is that the team that they have now is not a huge draw because they are a sub 500 team. Thus, like RH just pointed out, once that observation is made, then you start to think about ways to make the team better (because that's how you really sell tickets).

A-Gons value is at or near its peak, so it makes sense that Hoyer was talking with Theo. He is looking to get a package of players that will ultimately make them into or move them toward being a winner.

and yes, I think three tremendous talents will ultimately make them better and thus put more people in the seats.

I tend to think that Hoyer is thinking about more than having a mediocre team that sells a fair amount of tickets because they have one big drawing player. My bet is that he is thinking about how to actually make that team into a winner.

[winsomme]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

[Brickowski]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think so, and I think that will be the deal.

[winsomme]

so your argument is that Buch,Ells,Kelly is not the price tag for A-Gon, but SD wouldn't do the deal if offered.....

that means you are saying the price tag is higher than Buch, Ells, Kelly....not lower...

the seller determines the price tag. If SD wants more than Buch, Ells, Kelly, then that's the price tag...

thus, my assertion that we should go beyond what we think A-Gon should go for in order to get the deal done.
thats not correct.  I am saying that from our front office's perspective (and really, and smart front office), that price tag is too high.  HOWEVER, from SD's perspective, that might not be enough (due to the reasons which countless people have already mentioned as to why they dont need to and wont trade him now).  do you see?

Seller's determine the price but the market dictates the final selling price. SD could ask for the world but if no one is willing to pay it then that's not the price the will receive and they will have to rework their price.

But even right now, SD won't take even that price. I have already gone over the reason why and don't want to repeat myself but eventually, I think SD will probably not get a package better than Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly and someone else for Gonzalez. That's a ridiculously high price. Heck, as time passes they might not even want Buch and Ellsbury as they get closer to being arbitration eligible. They may want all minor leaguers on the verge of the Show to max out their cost control on those players contracts, which, as we know is the reason they need to move Gonzalez, eventually, in the first place.

this works both ways, nick. what if Buch, Ells, and Kelly struggle this season and A-Gon continues to put up his big numbers? is it then too much to offer that package of guys...

the point is: there is a price to get A-Gon right now...that's why the discussions took place.

IMO Hoyer was looking for something along the lines of Buch, Ells, Kelly and Theo didn't want to go there....

And as I have said and Hoyer has said, Gonzalez, right now, can't be had for any price. Right now trading Gonzalez would be a before the season would be a career suicidal move for Hoyer. The trade can not and will not happen, regardless of price.

I disagree. I think it's posturing. I think he knows that trading A-Gon when his value is high is the smart thing to do because right now, the Padres are not very good....and the thing that really puts people in the seats is a good team not one big-name player and that's why we saw all those reports a few weeks back about talks between the Sox and the Pads

I think Theo thought the price tag was too high (i disagree with him) and that's why Hoyer has now moved to the "we're not looking to trade A-Gon" stance...

So you really think he'll sell more tickets in San Diego because he is going to make the team better THIS YEAR by trading away the superstar 40-50 HR, 120-140 RBI, home grown slugging first baseman for a speedy center fielder with a bad arm and no power, a potential #2 starter(potential being the operative word) and some highly touted prospects??

You really think the baseball ticket buying clientele out in southern California is going to believe that the subtraction of an AllStar hitting firstbaseman with MVP stats and addition of young potential players is going to make the Padres better this year and sell tickets??

Are you serious??

First, like winsomme said, I think you're *really* down on Ellsbury and Buchholz if that's how you regard them.  They're both starters on a championship caliber team, and have done great things very early in their respective careers.

Second, while I doubt San Diego will trade Gonzalez yet, I don't think they'll sell a ton of tickets until they field a winning team.  The Padres are going to have to ask themselves of whether they'd be more capable of winning with the prospects they receive in a trade, versus with the compensatory picks they receive in two years when Gonzalez leaves as a free agent.  If that's their analysis, winsomme may be right that they trade Gonzalez at peak value. 

Teams will pay a premium for the fact that Gonzalez is cost-controlled for two years, and San Diego very well may want to take advantage of that.  I mean, if their analysis suggests that they can't retain him long term, why not cash him in now, rather than in a year or a year and a half, when his value has declined?

I'm okay with the Sox not breaking the bank for Gonzalez, but I disagree that San Diego doesn't have motivation to do a deal now.  They have a ton of motivation, so long as other teams are offering a fair price, rather than a bargain one.

It would be one thing if SD was going to be good in the next couple of years and competing for the playoffs....like FLA and Minny have. It makes sense for them to have hung on to Hanley and Mauer in some respects because they have been fielding good teams. there's a chance they could build a team with those guys on it.

but SD doesn't seem close to being good. maybe someone who knows the team better can tell me that they will actually be good this year. that's why I'm asking nick how good he thinks SD will be keeping A-Gon for this season.

but if they are seeing what I'm seeing then I would think they are looking to move A-Gon while his value is at its highest.

[winsomme]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think so, and I think that will be the deal.

yeah, i would have been okay with that too. I just think that the Beltre signing makes this move less likely...

[nickagneta]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think the Padres won 22 of their final 35 games last year(.628 winning percentage). I think the Padres got a lot of contributions from a lot of decent young talent late last year and have a decent top three in Young, Correia, and Richard. I think the Dodgers are in disarray and falling back to the pack. And that, as constructed, with some luck and development, the Padres could contend for a wild card next year in the NL.

I also think that taking the big fearful bat out of the middle of the Padres lineup would cripple what is already a young developing offense(they had a much better last third of the year than they did the first 2 thrids) that can struggle at times. Ellsbury, as good as he is and definitely an upgrade over Gwynn, will not replace that offense. Buchholz, as good as he is, has only shown maturity in one year of his career, last year. He could as easily fall back as surge forward. Anyone in the minors that the Padres get woulkd be at least a year away.

I think spring hopes spring eternal for every team and that the clientele will buy tickets for this team because they remember the last part of last year and the quality ball the Padres were playing. They will buy tickets for this year. They will buy tickets for this team.

Trade Gonzalez for players that could make them much better in a year or three and not immediately, and I think Petco Park will be a ghost town.

By the way, I was told I was not high enough on our prospects last off season when I had no problem giving up Bowden, Anderson and Buchholz for Roy Halladay. Bowden and Anderson aren't even top 5 prospects for the Sox anymore.

[winsomme]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think the Padres won 22 of their final 35 games last year(.628 winning percentage). I think the Padres got a lot of contributions from a lot of decent young talent late last year and have a decent top three in Young, Correia, and Richard. I think the Dodgers are in disarray and falling back to the pack. And that, as constructed, with some luck and development, the Padres could contend for a wild card next year in the NL.

I also think that taking the big fearful bat out of the middle of the Padres lineup would cripple what is already a young developing offense(they had a much better last third of the year than they did the first 2 thrids) that can struggle at times. Ellsbury, as good as he is and definitely an upgrade over Gwynn, will not replace that offense. Buchholz, as good as he is, has only shown maturity in one year of his career, last year. He could as easily fall back as surge forward. Anyone in the minors that the Padres get woulkd be at least a year away.

I think spring hopes spring eternal for every team and that the clientele will buy tickets for this team because they remember the last part of last year and the quality ball the Padres were playing. They will buy tickets for this year. They will buy tickets for this team.

Trade Gonzalez for players that could make them much better in a year or three and not immediately, and I think Petco Park will be a ghost town.

By the way, I was told I was not high enough on our prospects last off season when I had no problem giving up Bowden, Anderson and Buchholz for Roy Halladay. Bowden and Anderson aren't even top 5 prospects for the Sox anymore.

sorry, just trying to decipher....

I take it that you would trade Buch, Ells, and Kelly for A-Gon given your assessments of them. Is that a fair conclusion?

If so, then we at least agree on moving those players for A-Gon.

As for how good you think SD will be this year. you think they will compete for a wild card spot.  Colorado was the WC team last year and won 92 games.

so you think they will be looking at a 92 win season? Is that also fair to say? they won 75 last year by the way...

I don't know. I'm looking at their pitching staff and I'm not seeing anywhere near a 92 win team....

[nickagneta]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think the Padres won 22 of their final 35 games last year(.628 winning percentage). I think the Padres got a lot of contributions from a lot of decent young talent late last year and have a decent top three in Young, Correia, and Richard. I think the Dodgers are in disarray and falling back to the pack. And that, as constructed, with some luck and development, the Padres could contend for a wild card next year in the NL.

I also think that taking the big fearful bat out of the middle of the Padres lineup would cripple what is already a young developing offense(they had a much better last third of the year than they did the first 2 thrids) that can struggle at times. Ellsbury, as good as he is and definitely an upgrade over Gwynn, will not replace that offense. Buchholz, as good as he is, has only shown maturity in one year of his career, last year. He could as easily fall back as surge forward. Anyone in the minors that the Padres get woulkd be at least a year away.

I think spring hopes spring eternal for every team and that the clientele will buy tickets for this team because they remember the last part of last year and the quality ball the Padres were playing. They will buy tickets for this year. They will buy tickets for this team.

Trade Gonzalez for players that could make them much better in a year or three and not immediately, and I think Petco Park will be a ghost town.

By the way, I was told I was not high enough on our prospects last off season when I had no problem giving up Bowden, Anderson and Buchholz for Roy Halladay. Bowden and Anderson aren't even top 5 prospects for the Sox anymore.

sorry, just trying to decipher....

I take it that you would trade Buch, Ells, and Kelly for A-Gon given your assessments of them. Is that a fair conclusion?

If so, then we at least agree on moving those players for A-Gon.

As for how good you think SD will be this year. you think they will compete for a wild card spot.  Colorado was the WC team last year and won 92 games.

so you think they will be looking at a 92 win season? Is that also fair to say? they won 75 last year by the way...

I don't know. I'm looking at their pitching staff and I'm not seeing anywhere near a 92 win team....

I love the way you argue by making statements for me winsomme. My statement was quite clear and everything you wrote after the word decipher is what you said and not me.

I think my statements speak for themselves as does the reality of the situation. As a trade, I think the potential of the players the Sox would give up exceeds the current value of Gonzalez FOR THE RED SOX. But value, like everything in life is not a set thing. It is relative. And right now, the relative value the the realities of what the Sox players could bring immediately to the Padres to the perception of the San Diego ticket buying public, is not enough to keep them buying tickets at the same rate as if the trade wasn't made.

So for that reason, the trade value being given up by the Sox, or really any team giving up prospects for Gonzalez, isn't enough for Hoyer to make a trade because it will effect the most important thing to a small market team, the bottom line, revenue and profit.

[winsomme]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think the Padres won 22 of their final 35 games last year(.628 winning percentage). I think the Padres got a lot of contributions from a lot of decent young talent late last year and have a decent top three in Young, Correia, and Richard. I think the Dodgers are in disarray and falling back to the pack. And that, as constructed, with some luck and development, the Padres could contend for a wild card next year in the NL.

I also think that taking the big fearful bat out of the middle of the Padres lineup would cripple what is already a young developing offense(they had a much better last third of the year than they did the first 2 thrids) that can struggle at times. Ellsbury, as good as he is and definitely an upgrade over Gwynn, will not replace that offense. Buchholz, as good as he is, has only shown maturity in one year of his career, last year. He could as easily fall back as surge forward. Anyone in the minors that the Padres get woulkd be at least a year away.

I think spring hopes spring eternal for every team and that the clientele will buy tickets for this team because they remember the last part of last year and the quality ball the Padres were playing. They will buy tickets for this year. They will buy tickets for this team.

Trade Gonzalez for players that could make them much better in a year or three and not immediately, and I think Petco Park will be a ghost town.

By the way, I was told I was not high enough on our prospects last off season when I had no problem giving up Bowden, Anderson and Buchholz for Roy Halladay. Bowden and Anderson aren't even top 5 prospects for the Sox anymore.

sorry, just trying to decipher....

I take it that you would trade Buch, Ells, and Kelly for A-Gon given your assessments of them. Is that a fair conclusion?

If so, then we at least agree on moving those players for A-Gon.

As for how good you think SD will be this year. you think they will compete for a wild card spot.  Colorado was the WC team last year and won 92 games.

so you think they will be looking at a 92 win season? Is that also fair to say? they won 75 last year by the way...

I don't know. I'm looking at their pitching staff and I'm not seeing anywhere near a 92 win team....

I love the way you argue by making statements for me winsomme. My statement was quite clear and everything you wrote after the word decipher is what you said and not me.

I think my statements speak for themselves as does the reality of the situation. As a trade, I think the potential of the players the Sox would give up exceeds the current value of Gonzalez FOR THE RED SOX. But value, like everything in life is not a set thing. It is relative. And right now, the relative value the the realities of what the Sox players could bring immediately to the Padres to the perception of the San Diego ticket buying public, is not enough to keep them buying tickets at the same rate as if the trade wasn't made.

So for that reason, the trade value being given up by the Sox, or really any team giving up prospects for Gonzalez, isn't enough for Hoyer to make a trade because it will effect the most important thing to a small market team, the bottom line, revenue and profit.

Okay, maybe I'm just not seeing it....you called Ells a fast player with no arm and no power, Buch a #2 starter at best and Kelly an unknown quantity as a top prospect.

you called A-Gon an all star slugger capable of hitting 50 HRs and 140 RBIs.....I don't see how you can then conclude that we would be paying too much in that trade scenario.

can you explain to me how Buch, Ells, and Kelly are more valuable to the Sox than A-Gon would be?

also, I really don't know what you are saying about the Pads for next season. you noted them closing the season with a .626 winning percentage...that's a pace to win 101 games. you also mentioned them competing for a WC...the WC winner in the NL last year won 92 games...

The reason I asked you what kind of winning percentage you expected from SD next season was to avoid confusion.

the Pads won 75 game last season...that's a .463 win percentage.

92 wins is .568...

85 is .525, somewhere around there?

[nickagneta]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think the Padres won 22 of their final 35 games last year(.628 winning percentage). I think the Padres got a lot of contributions from a lot of decent young talent late last year and have a decent top three in Young, Correia, and Richard. I think the Dodgers are in disarray and falling back to the pack. And that, as constructed, with some luck and development, the Padres could contend for a wild card next year in the NL.

I also think that taking the big fearful bat out of the middle of the Padres lineup would cripple what is already a young developing offense(they had a much better last third of the year than they did the first 2 thrids) that can struggle at times. Ellsbury, as good as he is and definitely an upgrade over Gwynn, will not replace that offense. Buchholz, as good as he is, has only shown maturity in one year of his career, last year. He could as easily fall back as surge forward. Anyone in the minors that the Padres get woulkd be at least a year away.

I think spring hopes spring eternal for every team and that the clientele will buy tickets for this team because they remember the last part of last year and the quality ball the Padres were playing. They will buy tickets for this year. They will buy tickets for this team.

Trade Gonzalez for players that could make them much better in a year or three and not immediately, and I think Petco Park will be a ghost town.

By the way, I was told I was not high enough on our prospects last off season when I had no problem giving up Bowden, Anderson and Buchholz for Roy Halladay. Bowden and Anderson aren't even top 5 prospects for the Sox anymore.

sorry, just trying to decipher....

I take it that you would trade Buch, Ells, and Kelly for A-Gon given your assessments of them. Is that a fair conclusion?

If so, then we at least agree on moving those players for A-Gon.

As for how good you think SD will be this year. you think they will compete for a wild card spot.  Colorado was the WC team last year and won 92 games.

so you think they will be looking at a 92 win season? Is that also fair to say? they won 75 last year by the way...

I don't know. I'm looking at their pitching staff and I'm not seeing anywhere near a 92 win team....

I love the way you argue by making statements for me winsomme. My statement was quite clear and everything you wrote after the word decipher is what you said and not me.

I think my statements speak for themselves as does the reality of the situation. As a trade, I think the potential of the players the Sox would give up exceeds the current value of Gonzalez FOR THE RED SOX. But value, like everything in life is not a set thing. It is relative. And right now, the relative value the the realities of what the Sox players could bring immediately to the Padres to the perception of the San Diego ticket buying public, is not enough to keep them buying tickets at the same rate as if the trade wasn't made.

So for that reason, the trade value being given up by the Sox, or really any team giving up prospects for Gonzalez, isn't enough for Hoyer to make a trade because it will effect the most important thing to a small market team, the bottom line, revenue and profit.

Okay, maybe I'm just not seeing it....you called Ells a fast player with no arm and no power, Buch a #2 starter at best and Kelly an unknown quantity as a top prospect.

you called A-Gon an all star slugger capable of hitting 50 HRs and 140 RBIs.....I don't see how you can then conclude that we would be paying too much in that trade scenario.

can you explain to me how Buch, Ells, and Kelly are more valuable to the Sox than A-Gon would be?

also, I really don't know what you are saying about the Pads for next season. you noted them closing the season with a .626 winning percentage...that's a pace to win 101 games. you also mentioned them competing for a WC...the WC winner in the NL last year won 92 games...

The reason I asked you what kind of winning percentage you expected from SD next season was to avoid confusion.

the Pads won 75 game last season...that's a .463 win percentage.

92 wins is .568...

85 is .525, somewhere around there?

There's no confusion just you muddying the waters. I said they would contend. CONTEND. I've seen wild card contending teams contend well into September but finish with a .500 record.

I said the values were relative. The POTENTIAL of the players is more valuable to the Sox and they would be overpaying because of the perceived value of the players across the league. Another team could value them even more and give up better talent that Gonzalez for them. So in that manner they are more valuable to the Sox.

Their IMMEDIATE value to help a team win is different. Their IMMEDIATE value to the Padres isn't enough to make the trade because the PERCEIVED value in the eyes of the ticketing buying public could effect ticket sales.

It's complex but understandable and it's what Hoyer has to deal with. His best move, don't make the move. especially if that move is with Boston.

[winsomme]

so, do you think that Buch, Ells, and Kelly would be a good trade for A-Gon?

and what do you expect the win percentage will be for the Pads this season?

I think the Padres won 22 of their final 35 games last year(.628 winning percentage). I think the Padres got a lot of contributions from a lot of decent young talent late last year and have a decent top three in Young, Correia, and Richard. I think the Dodgers are in disarray and falling back to the pack. And that, as constructed, with some luck and development, the Padres could contend for a wild card next year in the NL.

I also think that taking the big fearful bat out of the middle of the Padres lineup would cripple what is already a young developing offense(they had a much better last third of the year than they did the first 2 thrids) that can struggle at times. Ellsbury, as good as he is and definitely an upgrade over Gwynn, will not replace that offense. Buchholz, as good as he is, has only shown maturity in one year of his career, last year. He could as easily fall back as surge forward. Anyone in the minors that the Padres get woulkd be at least a year away.

I think spring hopes spring eternal for every team and that the clientele will buy tickets for this team because they remember the last part of last year and the quality ball the Padres were playing. They will buy tickets for this year. They will buy tickets for this team.

Trade Gonzalez for players that could make them much better in a year or three and not immediately, and I think Petco Park will be a ghost town.

By the way, I was told I was not high enough on our prospects last off season when I had no problem giving up Bowden, Anderson and Buchholz for Roy Halladay. Bowden and Anderson aren't even top 5 prospects for the Sox anymore.

sorry, just trying to decipher....

I take it that you would trade Buch, Ells, and Kelly for A-Gon given your assessments of them. Is that a fair conclusion?

If so, then we at least agree on moving those players for A-Gon.

As for how good you think SD will be this year. you think they will compete for a wild card spot.  Colorado was the WC team last year and won 92 games.

so you think they will be looking at a 92 win season? Is that also fair to say? they won 75 last year by the way...

I don't know. I'm looking at their pitching staff and I'm not seeing anywhere near a 92 win team....

I love the way you argue by making statements for me winsomme. My statement was quite clear and everything you wrote after the word decipher is what you said and not me.

I think my statements speak for themselves as does the reality of the situation. As a trade, I think the potential of the players the Sox would give up exceeds the current value of Gonzalez FOR THE RED SOX. But value, like everything in life is not a set thing. It is relative. And right now, the relative value the the realities of what the Sox players could bring immediately to the Padres to the perception of the San Diego ticket buying public, is not enough to keep them buying tickets at the same rate as if the trade wasn't made.

So for that reason, the trade value being given up by the Sox, or really any team giving up prospects for Gonzalez, isn't enough for Hoyer to make a trade because it will effect the most important thing to a small market team, the bottom line, revenue and profit.

Okay, maybe I'm just not seeing it....you called Ells a fast player with no arm and no power, Buch a #2 starter at best and Kelly an unknown quantity as a top prospect.

you called A-Gon an all star slugger capable of hitting 50 HRs and 140 RBIs.....I don't see how you can then conclude that we would be paying too much in that trade scenario.

can you explain to me how Buch, Ells, and Kelly are more valuable to the Sox than A-Gon would be?

also, I really don't know what you are saying about the Pads for next season. you noted them closing the season with a .626 winning percentage...that's a pace to win 101 games. you also mentioned them competing for a WC...the WC winner in the NL last year won 92 games...

The reason I asked you what kind of winning percentage you expected from SD next season was to avoid confusion.

the Pads won 75 game last season...that's a .463 win percentage.

92 wins is .568...

85 is .525, somewhere around there?

There's no confusion just you muddying the waters. I said they would contend. CONTEND. I've seen wild card contending teams contend well into September but finish with a .500 record.

I said the values were relative. The POTENTIAL of the players is more valuable to the Sox and they would be overpaying because of the perceived value of the players across the league. Another team could value them even more and give up better talent that Gonzalez for them. So in that manner they are more valuable to the Sox.

Their IMMEDIATE value to help a team win is different. Their IMMEDIATE value to the Padres isn't enough to make the trade because the PERCEIVED value in the eyes of the ticketing buying public could effect ticket sales.

It's complex but understandable and it's what Hoyer has to deal with. His best move, don't make the move. especially if that move is with Boston.

i don't think I'm muddying the waters by asking what kind of winning percentage you think SD will have next season. I'm just asking you to bottom line it for me.

also, I really have no idea what you are saying about how Buch, Ells, and Kelly are more valuable to the Sox than A-Gon because of perceived value around the league....either they make your team better or A-Gon makes your team better... perceived value seems sort of irrelevant....I mean, what kind of scenarios are you talking about exactly where a team would give more for that package than A-Gon where SD wouldn't even give A-Gon? This is confusing to me...

I don't know...maybe would should just leave it....

anyway, that was an insane play by Paul and Rondo....one for the ages!

[footey]

Offer Youk and Buckholz for Gonzalez, and get the deal done. Well worth it.

[Vermont Green]

In my opinion, the signing of Beltre was the closing ceremony on any significant dealings this off season.  They will probably find a home for Lowell after he shows he can hit in spring training.  I predict they start the season more or less with the team they have.  They will see how the pieces fit together and see who performs, who gets hurt, and go from there.

I think Buchholtz and Victor Martinez + Prospect for Mauer is a more likely trade than any trade for Gonz at this point.

I am more worried about throwing out base runners than us scoring runs.  We are going to be fine.

[Chris]

Offer Youk and Buckholz for Gonzalez, and get the deal done. Well worth it.

Why would that make sense for San Diego?  Youk only has 1 year longer than Gonzalez on his contract, but will be making more money per year I believe. 

San Diego wants prospects with very little service time, so they can have them come up together to rebuild the franchise.  They do not want older guys who are going to be making a lot of money.