Marquis out Tuesday, Tony in?

[scoop]

It'll be interesting to see if there's much of a dropoff from Quis to just-returned from injury TA.

I know Quis came in to rave reviews from Doc/Ainge/CelticsBlog veterans, but I've been underwhelmed by his performance.  His defense is sound, his demeanor is calm and he doesn't make too many mistakes, all nice breaks from TA, but he's also failed to contribute much at all.  He's averaging career lows in most per-minute categories.  He's not helping on the boards, he's not forcing turnover, he hasn't attacked much at all off the dribble, and he's converting his FG attempts at a pretty average rate.  His go-to play is a post-up and we see that about once a game.

If TA duplicates Marquis's usage rate, I doubt we'll notice much of a difference at all.

In one game, probably. Who knows how well Tony Allen will play. But it'll be just a matter of time.

Daniels has always been pretty injury prone. I still want Ainge to get a secondary wing backup that makes up for Daniels flaws - a guy with a good record of durability, with good size and a solid outside shot. Someone to help playing situational minutes once in a while whenever Daniels is out and decent enough to give you 15 minutes per game if needed (someone like Udoka, Bogans, Pavlovic).

[snively]

I think I'd rather have JR in there than TA.  I don't think JR can dribble well enough, and he may bite on upfakes... I know TA can't dribble well enough, and he will bite on upfakes.

I'm kidding, but the point is that this might hurt us a bit.  Even if we win, I think Ray and Paul are in for 40-minute nights on Tuesday.

If TA is truly healthy, I just don't see the big drop-off.  Check-out TA stats for last year compared to Marquis' this year (saw fafnir pulling this off at basketball reference and had to do one too):

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=Ikq40

With TA you get about twice as many turnovers and less assists/ball-handling, but you also get twice as many steals, an significant increases in points (with better %s), more fouls drawn and more rebounds.  Heck TA's even a better career shooter from deep.

Don't get me wrong, I like Marquis better in the long-term, but what he's giving us now isn't all that crucial to the team's success.  Once he gets healthy and fully integrated into the offense, I think Daniels will rebound and score at much higher rates with none of TA's baggage.  But the Quis we've had thus far has been pretty mediocre.

[snively]

It'll be interesting to see if there's much of a dropoff from Quis to just-returned from injury TA.

I know Quis came in to rave reviews from Doc/Ainge/CelticsBlog veterans, but I've been underwhelmed by his performance.  His defense is sound, his demeanor is calm and he doesn't make too many mistakes, all nice breaks from TA, but he's also failed to contribute much at all.  He's averaging career lows in most per-minute categories.  He's not helping on the boards, he's not forcing turnover, he hasn't attacked much at all off the dribble, and he's converting his FG attempts at a pretty average rate.  His go-to play is a post-up and we see that about once a game.

If TA duplicates Marquis's usage rate, I doubt we'll notice much of a difference at all.

In one game, probably. Who knows how well Tony Allen will play. But it'll be just a matter of time.

Daniels has always been pretty injury prone. I still want Ainge to get a secondary wing backup that makes up for Daniels flaws - a guy with a good record of durability, with good size and a solid outside shot. Someone to help playing situational minutes once in a while whenever Daniels is out and decent enough to give you 15 minutes per game if needed (someone like Udoka, Bogans, Pavlovic).

I agree whole-heartedly.  Our only two wing back-ups of any merit are Daniels and TA, and TA has already shown to be unreliable for playoff duty.  Both have questionable health records and neither can shoot worth a lick.  I had faint hopes for Walker making a small leap coming into the season, but no longer.

Scal/Giddens/Walker/Hudson are all 15th man candidates.

[EJPLAYA]

I think I'd rather have JR in there than TA.  I don't think JR can dribble well enough, and he may bite on upfakes... I know TA can't dribble well enough, and he will bite on upfakes.

I'm kidding, but the point is that this might hurt us a bit.  Even if we win, I think Ray and Paul are in for 40-minute nights on Tuesday.

I hate TA about as much as anyone and wish he had just been cut, however (I can't believe I am saying this) I'd rather have TA out there on the court than Giddens. JR has no NBA skills whatsoever. Tony at least has NBA level talent. He just has middle school basketball IQ.

[Neurotic Guy]

I remain among the few (perhaps the sole survivor) who still thinks TA can add something of value to this roster.  He is an energy player off the bench -- something that Sheed and Daniels really aren't by their nature. House can be an energy guy, but his impact is deflated if he is not hitting his shots.  Baby is certainly an energy guy, but obviously the team hasn't had the benefit of his services as yet. Shelden does bring grit and emotion, so I'll say he does add to the energy equation.  But, TA can be a pure energy guy -- hustle, steals, aggressive defense and an occasional strong finish (preferably not after the play is over).

The big rap on TA is his turnover tendencies and his IQ lapses on defense.  If Tony can display some better self-control and thus play more 'within himself'(sorry for the cliche), he could be of value in stints off the bench.  He should not be handling the ball and he must be smart on the defensive end.  When he does these things, he can be effective and a spark.

And BTW, I am not convinced that his seeming lack of BBIQ is directly commensurate with a lack of general IQ.  He seems like an impulsive guy -- and impulsive people often (though certainly not always) gain some self-control in mid-late 20's when brain development is complete and they can better use their experieces to guide their future actions.  Tony may be a 'late bloomer' in this regard -- I hope so.

[Atzar]

Snively, do you really think TA will jump straight into the game after an injury and give you the production he gave you last year?  Because I don't.  I fully expect him to be more or less useless for a few weeks while he gets back up to speed.

If we were talking about a TA who had been playing at game-speed for awhile like Marquis has, then I could see your point - even though stats don't always indicate BBIQ, which is Quis's greatest advantage over TA.  But it's really hard to step back in from an injury and play quality basketball.

EJ, I said that I was kidding.  I don't really want JR out there instead of TA.  I was trying to make a point - I don't expect Ray and Paul - Ray especially - to get much rest as long as Marquis is out, because TA won't be a quality backup coming back from an injury (if he ever is a quality backup...).

[EJPLAYA]

Snively, do you really think TA will jump straight into the game after an injury and give you the production he gave you last year?  Because I don't.  I fully expect him to be more or less useless for a few weeks while he gets back up to speed.

If we were talking about a TA who had been playing at game-speed for awhile like Marquis has, then I could see your point - even though stats don't always indicate BBIQ, which is Quis's greatest advantage over TA.  But it's really hard to step back in from an injury and play quality basketball.

EJ, I said that I was kidding.  I don't really want JR out there instead of TA.  I was trying to make a point - I don't expect Ray and Paul - Ray especially - to get much rest as long as Marquis is out, because TA won't be a quality backup coming back from an injury (if he ever is a quality backup...).

Missed that part, however I DID have to think about it. THAT'S how bad I hate TA...

[snively]

I think I'd rather have JR in there than TA.  I don't think JR can dribble well enough, and he may bite on upfakes... I know TA can't dribble well enough, and he will bite on upfakes.

I'm kidding, but the point is that this might hurt us a bit.  Even if we win, I think Ray and Paul are in for 40-minute nights on Tuesday.

I hate TA about as much as anyone and wish he had just been cut, however (I can't believe I am saying this) I'd rather have TA out there on the court than Giddens. JR has no NBA skills whatsoever. Tony at least has NBA level talent. He just has middle school basketball IQ.

JR has been that bad. Thus far Ainge's worst draft pick, even worse than Gerald Green.

[Chris]

I hope they give Hudson some of Daniels minutes.  Not because I think he has earned them, but because without Daniels, they need someone who can handle the ball on that unit.

[snively]

Snively, do you really think TA will jump straight into the game after an injury and give you the production he gave you last year?  Because I don't.  I fully expect him to be more or less useless for a few weeks while he gets back up to speed.

If we were talking about a TA who had been playing at game-speed for awhile like Marquis has, then I could see your point - even though stats don't always indicate BBIQ, which is Quis's greatest advantage over TA.  But it's really hard to step back in from an injury and play quality basketball.

I see what you're saying Aztar, but TA's stats last year and for most of his career are those of a guy coming right off an injury, as he's been extremely injury prone throughout his career.  Last year he had a variety of injuries that yo-yo'd him in and out of the line-up.  In April he came back from almost 2 months off and didn't show too much rust.

And Quis's production thus far has set a pretty low standard.  All TA's got to do to duplicate Quis is walk the ball up the court one out of every 4 possessions, camp out in the corner, cut to the basket occasionally, and create something at the end of the clock if House and Wallace haven't chucked it by then.

[scoop]

And Quis's production thus far has set a pretty low standard.  All TA's got to do to duplicate Quis is walk the ball up the court one out of every 4 possessions, camp out in the corner, cut to the basket occasionally, and create something at the end of the clock if House and Wallace haven't chucked it by then.

Allen can't do that. Daniels usage rate this season is 15.4%. Tony has never come close of having that kind of usage rate - his career minimum is 18.8%. Last season, playing Daniels role, his usg rate was 21.5% - above Ray Allen, Rondo, House or Perkins.

Until two seasons ago I used to hope that Tony Allen could learn to play in a more humble way - doing less on the court, playing within his role, not trying to be a shot-producer so often: that would help him to be more consistent. As of now, I see no reason to keep believing that can happen.

Daniels knows when and where to cut, Tony doesn't and will cut towards someone isolating in the post offering the opponents a free double-team. Daniels knows how to keep the ball movement, Tony only knows how to kill ball movement. Daniels knows how to move on the floor to create spacing, Tony doesn't. Daniels can play relatively mistaken-free even when under-producing, Tony Allen can't.

Tony Allen will play his brand of basketball, he doesn't know any other. Then he'll either contribute positively or negatively (the later is more probable).

[ManUp]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEc9W2-NPVs&feature=related


...

[GreenFaith1819]

I remain among the few (perhaps the sole survivor) who still thinks TA can add something of value to this roster.  He is an energy player off the bench -- something that Sheed and Daniels really aren't by their nature. House can be an energy guy, but his impact is deflated if he is not hitting his shots.  Baby is certainly an energy guy, but obviously the team hasn't had the benefit of his services as yet. Shelden does bring grit and emotion, so I'll say he does add to the energy equation.  But, TA can be a pure energy guy -- hustle, steals, aggressive defense and an occasional strong finish (preferably not after the play is over).

The big rap on TA is his turnover tendencies and his IQ lapses on defense.  If Tony can display some better self-control and thus play more 'within himself'(sorry for the cliche), he could be of value in stints off the bench.  He should not be handling the ball and he must be smart on the defensive end.  When he does these things, he can be effective and a spark.

And BTW, I am not convinced that his seeming lack of BBIQ is directly commensurate with a lack of general IQ.  He seems like an impulsive guy -- and impulsive people often (though certainly not always) gain some self-control in mid-late 20's when brain development is complete and they can better use their experieces to guide their future actions.  Tony may be a 'late bloomer' in this regard -- I hope so.

NG, you aren't the only one in TA's corner. Yes he is prone to mistakes from to time, but I also believe he can still add some value to the team.

He is a pretty good slasher, a decent defender when he is focused, and he makes his freethrows at a good clip. I believe he will open some eyes during the season, starting next week.

If I am wrong anyone can quote me and feel free to send me to detention .

I'm in TA's corner.

[snively]

And Quis's production thus far has set a pretty low standard.  All TA's got to do to duplicate Quis is walk the ball up the court one out of every 4 possessions, camp out in the corner, cut to the basket occasionally, and create something at the end of the clock if House and Wallace haven't chucked it by then.

Allen can't do that. Daniels usage rate this season is 15.4%. Tony has never come close of having that kind of usage rate - his career minimum is 18.8%. Last season, playing Daniels role, his usg rate was 21.5% - above Ray Allen, Rondo, House or Perkins.

Until two seasons ago I used to hope that Tony Allen could learn to play in a more humble way - doing less on the court, playing within his role, not trying to be a shot-producer so often: that would help him to be more consistent. As of now, I see no reason to keep believing that can happen.

Daniels knows when and where to cut, Tony doesn't and will cut towards someone isolating in the post offering the opponents a free double-team. Daniels knows how to keep the ball movement, Tony only knows how to kill ball movement. Daniels knows how to move on the floor to create spacing, Tony doesn't. Daniels can play relatively mistaken-free even when under-producing, Tony Allen can't.

Tony Allen will play his brand of basketball, he doesn't know any other. Then he'll either contribute positively or negatively (the later is more probable).

First of all, I don't agree that Daniels is appreciatively better than TA at cutting to the hoop.  Where he differentiates himself from TA is his control and decision-making with the ball in his hands.

That brings us to the whole issue of usage.  In such a low-usage role Daniels is not bringing much more than TA.  He's an equally poor shooter so he isn't hitting from long range and spacing the floor, nor is he especially big and athletic, setting screens or grabbing boards that TA couldn't. Nor are his intangibles noticably elevating the play of his mates.  House and Wallace are both struggling.

The bench needs Daniels to be higher usage.  It would be one thing if he was taking a backseat to more capable teammates.  But that's not the case.  He's the best passer and only slasher of the bench bunch. Right now an enormous % of bench possessions are consumed by Sheed, one of the lowest % shooters on the team.  
 
If TA produces at last year's levels his net impact would be comparable to what Daniels is giving us right now.  Daniels is doing very little, and doing even less wrong.  Meanwhile Sheed is doing much more than he should.  If TA comes in and does a lot, good and bad, Sheed will do less, and the bench will probably fare the same.  The blame will just shift somewhat from Sheed to TA.  

[mgent]

Imagine if Tony pulled a Sheldon.