2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Roy Hobbs]

p.s.

Do u want me to play a Manu, Redd, shard, JO, Shaq lineup
yup i can do that too
see.. kg , sheed perk lineup this year
on front page
that will be fun

Yeah, Houston really isn't a good team, but the one area they definitely can't match you is height.

Also, Joe Johnson is supposed to be one of his big advantages, but Michael Redd actually outplays him.

So, Shaq neutralizes (and actually outplays) Bosh, and Redd neutralizes (and actually outplays) Redd.

That leaves it as:

J.O./Rashard/Manu/Bibby/Miller/Delonte/Gomes  vs. Monta Ellis, Anthony Randolph, Grant Hill, and a bunch of scrubs and rookies.  I like your chances. 

Wow!

Yeah, you wouldn't think so, but Redd has outscored him 11 out of the past 12 games.

Himself?

Haha.  Oops.

[Roy Hobbs]

As I see it, Shaq neutralizes (and actually outplays) Bosh, and Redd neutralizes (and actually outplays) Redd.

Whoa whoa whoa! Come on. Shaq does not neutralize Bosh, he can't defend him if he tried! Bosh's game is everything within the 3 pt circle, shaq can't touch that.

Nobody on Portland's roster can account for the best WNBA player the NBA has to offer (well, you called him Ru-Paul, WW).

That said, Bosh can only cover one of the two or possible three bigs Portland is puttin on the floor. how does this work from a defensive standpoint for Houston?

Eh, I'm fighting Edgar's battle for him, but as somebody who trumpeted stats and actual performances, I guess I'm a little surprised that you give so little respect to statistics in actual games, IP.

Bosh can't cover Shaq.  Shaq's done a competent job on Bosh when asked to cover him.  That's why, last time they matched up, Shaq outscored him something like 45 to 16. 

If Bosh can't be covered, why wasn't he the one who was dominating?  If one side has the advantage here, it's clearly Edgar.  However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.  Rather, if Shaq plays Bosh even (which he clearly, clearly does, and exceeds), Houston's best player is neutralized.  Since Redd routinely outscores Johnson, Houston's second best player is neutralized.  That leaves Houston with Monta Ellis and a bunch of fringe players against the bulk of Portland's team.

Yes, Bosh is a bigger "name" right now than Shaq.  Johnson is a bigger "name" than Redd.  Head-to-head, though, it's been Edgar's players who have been the ones winning the matchup battles.

[The Walker Wiggle]

So Portland can't stop Chris Bosh with any one player. How does Houston stop the height from any two of Portland's bigs? Bosh can't cover both guys at once, right?

It's a fair question. And I think the wait-and-see approach is reason #1A I'm expecting to get trounced in tomorrow's poll.

I know you, Hobbs, and others are betting against Randolph, Andersen, Blair and Powe. But as I've said I expect to have two NBA starters, and two solid rotation players.

I believe David Andersen will acquit himself well. I'm not sure that finesse is a dirty word in the league. And while rebounding isn't his strong suit. I still argue that no one plays minutes (and wins a Championship) for Ettore Messina if they aren't playing hard, playing fundamentally sound basketball and boxing out.

As for Anthony Randolph, I end up leaning on Per36 numbers, April starts, and Summer League games. But isn't part of the fun of following this league, getting overly exited about the possibilities and a high strung, everywhere on the court 6'11" and 1/2 PF/C/SF 20 year old?

DeJuan Blair, on the other hand - I believe a lot of NBA fans who don't follow the NCAA closely don't have a good sense of how dominant Blair really was last season. He's quick, he got more steals than most guards. He has a 7'3" wingspan. He didn't miss a game or practice in two seasons at Pitt. He hammered opposing players in team workouts.

I had Blair as a top six pick in the wake of a sophomore season in which he shattered modern records for offensive rebounding and shared Big East Player of the Year honors with No. 2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet. Few of the NBA's successful undersized power forwards projected out as well as rookies.

But all I can really say is we'll see...

[Edgar]

As I see it, Shaq neutralizes (and actually outplays) Bosh, and Redd neutralizes (and actually outplays) Redd.

Whoa whoa whoa! Come on. Shaq does not neutralize Bosh, he can't defend him if he tried! Bosh's game is everything within the 3 pt circle, shaq can't touch that.

Nobody on Portland's roster can account for the best WNBA player the NBA has to offer (well, you called him Ru-Paul, WW).

That said, Bosh can only cover one of the two or possible three bigs Portland is puttin on the floor. how does this work from a defensive standpoint for Houston?

Eh, I'm fighting Edgar's battle for him, but as somebody who trumpeted stats and actual performances, I guess I'm a little surprised that you give so little respect to statistics in actual games, IP.

Bosh can't cover Shaq.  Shaq's done a competent job on Bosh when asked to cover him.  That's why, last time they matched up, Shaq outscored him something like 45 to 16. 

If Bosh can't be covered, why wasn't he the one who was dominating?  If one side has the advantage here, it's clearly Edgar.  However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.  Rather, if Shaq plays Bosh even (which he clearly, clearly does, and exceeds), Houston's best player is neutralized.  Since Redd routinely outscores Johnson, Houston's second best player is neutralized.  That leaves Houston with Monta Ellis and a bunch of fringe players against the bulk of Portland's team.

Yes, Bosh is a bigger "name" right now than Shaq.  Johnson is a bigger "name" than Redd.  Head-to-head, though, it's been Edgar's players who have been the ones winning the matchup battles.

ok lets play my fight

I have Delonte man...5 of 8 teams can use him as starting pg right now.
Hes behing Bibby
I have manu, 7 of 8 teams can use him as starting SG
I have Miller...6 of 8 teams can use it as starting center

in this fake league playoffs

Bench and size wins championships

Its simple logic
I wont need stats saying bosh had a great fantasy year
after all his team LOST and never win anything, i mean never

[indeedproceed]

As I see it, Shaq neutralizes (and actually outplays) Bosh, and Redd neutralizes (and actually outplays) Redd.

Whoa whoa whoa! Come on. Shaq does not neutralize Bosh, he can't defend him if he tried! Bosh's game is everything within the 3 pt circle, shaq can't touch that.

Nobody on Portland's roster can account for the best WNBA player the NBA has to offer (well, you called him Ru-Paul, WW).

That said, Bosh can only cover one of the two or possible three bigs Portland is puttin on the floor. how does this work from a defensive standpoint for Houston?

Eh, I'm fighting Edgar's battle for him, but as somebody who trumpeted stats and actual performances, I guess I'm a little surprised that you give so little respect to statistics in actual games, IP.

Yeah howd that work out for me Roy? Al Jefferson consistently outperforms Tim Duncan and who'd you vote for?

Bosh can't cover Shaq.  Shaq's done a competent job on Bosh when asked to cover him.  That's why, last time they matched up, Shaq outscored him something like 45 to 16. 

Shaq, after a full season, a hard playoff series against a solid Golden State team, is going to be tired. Shaq's competent job isn't so competent if he's using defensive possessions to grab oxygen on the sidelines.

The same can be said for Jermaine O'Neal.

Houston has the younger more talented legs. I think you have to think that Ellis Johnson and Bosh will be really hard for Portland to deal with here.

If Bosh can't be covered, why wasn't he the one who was dominating?  If one side has the advantage here, it's clearly Edgar.  However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.  Rather, if Shaq plays Bosh even (which he clearly, clearly does, and exceeds), Houston's best player is neutralized.  Since Redd routinely outscores Johnson, Houston's second best player is neutralized.  That leaves Houston with Monta Ellis and a bunch of fringe players against the bulk of Portland's team.

Yes, Bosh is a bigger "name" right now than Shaq.  Johnson is a bigger "name" than Redd.  Head-to-head, though, it's been Edgar's players who have been the ones winning the matchup battles.

Bosh is superstar in game and name...Shaq is only a superstar in one of those categories. Sure, he can get a reality TV show, which I am very sorry I missed tonight, but can he guard a player who hits almost 44 percent of his jumpshots, this deep in the playoffs? I have serious doubts here Roy!

[The Walker Wiggle]

However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.

He absolutely does. See below (or somewhere above).

I take some consolation in the fact that Shaq averaged only 30 mpg in '08-'09 and will likely need that number to come down again next season. And since he can't make his free throws, play transition defense or guard the high pick and roll or screens, his conditioning isn't the only reason he'll find himself on the bench.

And so what about the rest of Portland's touted front court?

Bosh ran rough shod over Brad Miller last season going for 31 twice and averaging 24 ppg and 12.3 rpg vs 16 ppg and 8 rpg in four match ups.

Brad is a reserve, you say, what about Jermaine O'Neal, you ask? Well Bosh hung 34 points on him, while shooting 57%. Jermaine managed 8 points on 31% shooting. That was their only match up because O'Neal wisely sat out the rest...

Ok no help there. But Rashard Lewis will do it to RuPaul won't he? Bosh in wig, make up and high heels put up 40 points on 74% shooting and 18 rebounds on Sweet Lew in their first match-up last season and over four meetings averaged 24.5 ppg and 12.8 rpg to Lewis's 18.8 ppg and 7.3 rpg.

Nobody on Portland's roster can account for the best WNBA player the NBA has to offer (well, you called him Ru-Paul, WW).

And it was O'Neal that famously called Bosh "RuPaul" after putting up his best night of the last season on Chris and the Raptors.

[Roy Hobbs]

I know you, Hobbs, and others are betting against Randolph, Andersen, Blair and Powe. But as I've said I expect to have two NBA starters, and two solid rotation players.

How many teams do you think Andersen would start on other than Houston, Wiggle? 

And how many non-lottery teams could Randolph start on?  (Let alone, start at the center position . . . )

I hope you're right on Leon, but Danny didn't think he was worth $1 million.

As for Blair, we'll see.  Teams have been wrong on second rounders before, but something scared off the various teams that led to him falling like a stone on draft night.

In the end, I admit, you could surprise me.  Or, this could work out as successfully as the McGee for Sessions deal did for you.

[Edgar]

However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.

He absolutely does.

ok he will

p.s. hope bosh didnt choke as usual

[Roy Hobbs]

However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.

He absolutely does. See below (or somewhere above).

I take some consolation in the fact that Shaq averaged only 30 mpg in '08-'09 and will likely need that number to come down again next season. And since he can't make his free throws, play transition defense or guard the high pick and roll or screens, his conditioning isn't the only reason he'll find himself on the bench.

And so what about the rest of Portland's touted front court?

Bosh ran rough shod over Brad Miller last season going for 31 twice and averaging 24 ppg and 12.3 rpg vs 16 ppg and 8 rpg in four match ups.

Brad is a reserve, you say, what about Jermaine O'Neal, you ask? Well Bosh hung 34 points on him, while shooting 57%. Jermaine managed 8 points on 31% shooting. That was their only match up because O'Neal wisely sat out the rest...

Ok no help there. But Rashard Lewis will do it to RuPaul won't he? Bosh in wig, make up and high heels put up 40 points on 74% shooting and 18 rebounds on Sweet Lew in their first match-up last season and over four meetings averaged 24.5 ppg and 12.8 rpg to Lewis's 18.8 ppg and 7.3 rpg.

Nobody on Portland's roster can account for the best WNBA player the NBA has to offer (well, you called him Ru-Paul, WW).

And it was O'Neal that famously called Bosh "RuPaul" after putting up his best night of the last season on Chris and the Raptors.

It seems like you're trying to have Bosh play both center and power forward at the same time.  I'd be curious to see how that works out.  If he's guarding Shaq, he's not guarding Jermaine O'Neal or Rashard Lewis, correct?

I'm impressed by you fighting the good fight, Wiggle, but there's no way to get around 1) actual results in actual games, and 2) this quote from Bosh's quote, referring to Shaq:

"We have no match for him."

Bosh's own coach admits that Bosh can't cover him.  I would assume that would go a long way in fantasy land.

[Edgar]

I wonder how Bosh will do against

Shaw AND JO AND Shard AND Miller AND Gomes
i mean he should be very good to go 1 on five
and watch how Manu and redd kill from the outside
and trying to deffend him on penetration


for some reason this answer is the same roy is
giving so i think i may have something here
:p

[indeedproceed]

Also, on Joe Johnson vs Micheal Redd, how did he fair last year?

I know Redd played him tough in the one game, but what about in the other three?

Oh that's right...he didn't play in any of those games, because Micheal Redd is 30 years old and only played in 33 games last year.

I wonder how he will play if he turns in a repeat performance?

[Roy Hobbs]

However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.

He absolutely does.

ok he will

p.s. hope bosh didnt choke as usual

Come on, Edgar, be fair.  Chris Bosh has 11 career playoff games and has lost in the first round twice.  That counts for something, right?  He's a "superstar".

[indeedproceed]

However, Edgar doesn't even need Shaq to dominate.

He absolutely does.

ok he will

p.s. hope bosh didnt choke as usual

Come on, Edgar, be fair.  Chris Bosh has 11 career playoff games and has lost in the first round twice.  That counts for something, right?  He's a "superstar".

With a capital "S". Hit him with the stats, WW!

[Roy Hobbs]

Also, on Joe Johnson vs Micheal Redd, how did he fair last year?

I know Redd played him tough in the one game, but what about in the other three?

Oh that's right...he didn't play in any of those games, because Micheal Redd is 30 years old and only played in 33 games last year.

I wonder how he will play if he turns in a repeat performance?

I think if Portland won its division and advanced past Golden State, it's a pretty safe bet that Redd is healthy, don't you?

Redd has dominated Johnson head to head.  He's had a higher overall scoring average in every season the two have been in the league except for one (when Johnson outscored him by 0.2 ppg).  Redd is simply a better player, as recognized by the Olympic Committee.

[The Walker Wiggle]

How many teams do you think Andersen would start on other than Houston, Wiggle?

Absolutely fair, a handful possibly, but it's true that he's the best option in a bad situation for the real Rockets. But he shouldn't be dismissed out of hand either should he? And he's not starting for the imaginary Houston Rockets anyway. I've only contended a couple of times that he'll be the best center taken outside the first six round.

And how many non-lottery teams could Randolph start on?  (Let alone, start at the center position . . . )

Don't make a magician reveal his tricks. (But, yes, you might see Randolph playing power forward.) Still I have totally outsized expectations for Randolph. It's certainly a gamble.

I hope you're right on Leon, but Danny didn't think he was worth $1 million.

Can someone tell Master Poe that Leon needs his vote.

As for Blair, we'll see.  Teams have been wrong on second rounders before, but something scared off the various teams that led to him falling like a stone on draft night.

But the Spurs have been spectacularly right about some second round picks, haven't they? (Oh wait.)

In the end, I admit, you could surprise me.  Or, this could work out as successfully as the McGee for Sessions deal did for you.

That worked out ok for me last season . (Thank God.) Now it's next season I'm worried about...