Who Will the Red Sox Target for 08/09 FA? Who Will They Trade?

[Roy Hobbs]

I think it's too early to get excited about the Saito deal.  I agree that it's a smart signing, but it remains to be seen if he'll contribute next year.  He suffered a serious elbow injury that under normal circumstances would have required Tommy John surgery.  Since he's so old, Saito declined it and went with some sort of experimental injection, that allowed him to pitch.

Again, it's low cost / low risk / moderate reward, so it makes sense.  I doubt he's a difference maker, though, which unfortunately is the case with all of the Sox signings so far.  I'm all for the low cost experimenting, but a blue-chipper would be nice, as well.

[yall hate]

I think it's too early to get excited about the Saito deal.  I agree that it's a smart signing, but it remains to be seen if he'll contribute next year.  He suffered a serious elbow injury that under normal circumstances would have required Tommy John surgery.  Since he's so old, Saito declined it and went with some sort of experimental injection, that allowed him to pitch.

Again, it's low cost / low risk / moderate reward, so it makes sense.  I doubt he's a difference maker, though, which unfortunately is the case with all of the Sox signings so far.  I'm all for the low cost experimenting, but a blue-chipper would be nice, as well.

I voiced a similar belief (re: blue chipper) but supposedly the Sox brass was very impressed with Saito's throwing.  Apparently he is already throwing from 150 feet etc... whether he holds up or not is yet to be seen, but he does have outstanding stuff when healthy, so if they beleive he is healthy that is certainly something to be cautiously optimistic about.

[Toine43]

I think it's too early to get excited about the Saito deal.  I agree that it's a smart signing, but it remains to be seen if he'll contribute next year.  He suffered a serious elbow injury that under normal circumstances would have required Tommy John surgery.  Since he's so old, Saito declined it and went with some sort of experimental injection, that allowed him to pitch.

Again, it's low cost / low risk / moderate reward, so it makes sense.  I doubt he's a difference maker, though, which unfortunately is the case with all of the Sox signings so far.  I'm all for the low cost experimenting, but a blue-chipper would be nice, as well.

I would agree that none of the signings have too much of a chance of being real difference makers, except for Penny. He is truly a low risk, high reward signing, at least in my opinion.

[Tr1boy]

after we locked up pedroia and youkilis the redsox will think about locking up paps next. Not sure what it will take to get him(if he thinks he can get rivera money he won't). I predict something like 3 year 25 million dollar deal. Though i would think if he wants to leave for more money Justin Masterson could succeed him in the closer role

Does anyone else think the redsox still are awaiting that one big trade that will replace even 75 percent of manny's production from last year?

[Chris]

after we locked up pedroia and youkilis the redsox will think about locking up paps next. Not sure what it will take to get him(if he thinks he can get rivera money he won't). I predict something like 3 year 25 million dollar deal. Though i would think if he wants to leave for more money Justin Masterson could succeed him in the closer role

Does anyone else think the redsox still are awaiting that one big trade that will replace even 75 percent of manny's production from last year?

They also still have Bard working his way up as well. 

I really don't think the Sox will end up working out a longterm deal for Paps.  Relievers are just such a risk to put a real longterm commitment into, and Paps is not the type of guy who will be looking to give a discount.  He will likely play out his arbitration years, and then test the market.

As for a big trade...I think they are always looking.  But I also think it is going to have to be an absolute superstar for them to part with their top prospects.

[yall hate]

after we locked up pedroia and youkilis the redsox will think about locking up paps next. Not sure what it will take to get him(if he thinks he can get rivera money he won't). I predict something like 3 year 25 million dollar deal. Though i would think if he wants to leave for more money Justin Masterson could succeed him in the closer role

Does anyone else think the redsox still are awaiting that one big trade that will replace even 75 percent of manny's production from last year?

no way on pap.  first, his agents would likely point out that he was better then K-rod and he got 3-37 (in a down year for dollars).  now, obviously there is a difference between being a fa and being arb eligible, but I dont think that he would be comfortable with 3, 25.  I guess we will know when it is released how much he and his agent are asking for at arb.  Masterson will not be a closer.  they have already said they are going to stretch him out and pitch him in the starting rotation (at least in the beg. of the year).  and his crazy splits against righties v. lefties would keep him from being a closer. 

As for Manny's production, they likely think it was replaced with Bay.  if Ortiz and Lowell are healthy, they will be fine offensively.

[Nerf DPOY]

Just for the sake of piling on, I'll point out that Paps burned out down the stretch in '06, and was on the verge at the end of last years ALCS. We still have him under control for the next 3 years. Just go year to year with him.

[Mean Gerald Green]

after we locked up pedroia and youkilis the redsox will think about locking up paps next. Not sure what it will take to get him(if he thinks he can get rivera money he won't). I predict something like 3 year 25 million dollar deal. Though i would think if he wants to leave for more money Justin Masterson could succeed him in the closer role

Does anyone else think the redsox still are awaiting that one big trade that will replace even 75 percent of manny's production from last year?

Kerry Wood just signed a 2 year deal worth 10 mil a season. Brian Fuentes signed a 2 year, 18 million dollar deal with a 3rd year option for 9 million, bringing his contract to around 27 million. Now why would Papelbon, the best closer in baseball the last 3 seasons, sign for less than these guys did...what don't you understand about the market?

Papelbon will get something around 3/36 when he's a free agent.

[nickagneta]

Papelbon, correct me if I am wrong, still has 3 arbitration years left with the Sox. He's a relief pitcher who has needed to have been used within a strict schedule due to arm strength and weariness problems if used ala KRod was. The Red Sox might try to sign Papelbon to a long term contract but it benefits them not to on several fronts.

1. Even though he has been amongst the best closers in the game, even the best closers don't make ridiculous money. Through arbitration process and some haggling coming to fair numbers to avoid arbitration the Sox should be able to hold Papelbon to well below $25 million over the next three years. KRod lost his arbitration last year in his last year of arbitration and got only $10 million. If that is the precedent that has been set then Paps is going to have to beat KRod from a pure numbers prospective in order to get more than $10 million that last year. I just don't see given past awards and the numbers involved where Papelbon would ever get $25 million in the next 3 year through arbitration. KRod only made $21 million in those same three years and compiled 169 saves with about a 2.10 ERA in those year. Arbitration is pure numbers. he won't get that type of money and it would foolish of the Sox to give it to him.

2. Closers that last more than 4-5 years without major injury are few and far between in baseball. Over the last couple of decades with the change in the use of bullpens, closers just don't last many consecutive year without an injury shutting them down for a year or being responsible for a really bad year. The chances of Papelbon going down for an extended time over the next three years are much better than him remaining healthy through all three years. Giving him a three year guaranteed contract would be foolish given the fact that the numbers say he will more than likely, at some time during those three years be lost for some time. With a guaranteed contract Paps gets the money the next year even though he had a bad year. In arbitration he would hence saving the Sox more cash.

3. The Sox history so far with giving arbitration eligible players long term contracts is that they get the lower than market value per year price they are looking for while the player gets the long term security. A three year $25 million contract completely flies in the face of that history. They'd never give Paps market value money for three years to avoid arbitration where they could save money.


For these reasons if a deal is worked out with Papelbon look for it to be a 5 year deal, team option for 6 with a per year price lower than $7 million a year with the pay increasing as time passes. That's the type of deal that this front office would put together not a 3year $25 million one. Those numbers are nuts.

[Tr1boy]

Pap i promise you will get a hefty raise if he utilizes arb. He is one of the best closers in the league and shut down in the playoffs.

Ryan Howard got a ridicoulus arb judgement favouring him and that could happen with pap.

He has been durable, he is still young and fearless. 3 Years 25 million right now would give everyone a peace of mind. (the longer the arb process goes imo relationships sour up)

[Chris]

Pap i promise you will get a hefty raise if he utilizes arb. He is one of the best closers in the league and shut down in the playoffs.

Ryan Howard got a ridicoulus arb judgement favouring him and that could happen with pap.

He has been durable, he is still young and fearless. 3 Years 25 million right now would give everyone a peace of mind. (the longer the arb process goes imo relationships sour up)

He absolutely will get a hefty raise.  But it will be gradual.  My guess is if he continues the way he is going, he will get something like $5 million, then $6 million, then $7.5 million. 

Besides, the Sox have a policy that they will not sign an extension to a young guy, unless they are able to buy at least a year of Free Agency.  So it would have to be a 4 year deal.  And they are not going to do that with Paps.

[Tr1boy]

Pap i promise you will get a hefty raise if he utilizes arb. He is one of the best closers in the league and shut down in the playoffs.

Ryan Howard got a ridicoulus arb judgement favouring him and that could happen with pap.

He has been durable, he is still young and fearless. 3 Years 25 million right now would give everyone a peace of mind. (the longer the arb process goes imo relationships sour up)

He absolutely will get a hefty raise.  But it will be gradual.  My guess is if he continues the way he is going, he will get something like $5 million, then $6 million, then $7.5 million. 

Besides, the Sox have a policy that they will not sign an extension to a young guy, unless they are able to buy at least a year of Free Agency.  So it would have to be a 4 year deal.  And they are not going to do that with Paps.

Chris i guess they won't but arb is not a pretty process. You can't also badmouth on paps performance much. Only things you could prob state is that closers lifeline is short, injuries occur etc.

IF i were pap i wouldn't be too pleased right now with pedroia and youk getting long term deals.

you can't say a closer role is not as important as any other roles. (two words eric gagne)

[yall hate]

IF i were pap i wouldn't be too pleased right now with pedroia and youk getting long term deals.

you can't say a closer role is not as important as any other roles. (two words eric gagne)

They approached Pap about a long term deal earlier.  He didnt like the numbers and said he was fine going year to year.  obviously, that means he is betting on his  health and success, but if the player wants to do arb then thats fine. 

anything can happen though.  Youk's agent said last week that it was a virtual certainty that they wouldnt be signing a long term deal.  obviously that changed so maybe pap's mindset will also.

[Chris]

Pap i promise you will get a hefty raise if he utilizes arb. He is one of the best closers in the league and shut down in the playoffs.

Ryan Howard got a ridicoulus arb judgement favouring him and that could happen with pap.

He has been durable, he is still young and fearless. 3 Years 25 million right now would give everyone a peace of mind. (the longer the arb process goes imo relationships sour up)

He absolutely will get a hefty raise.  But it will be gradual.  My guess is if he continues the way he is going, he will get something like $5 million, then $6 million, then $7.5 million. 

Besides, the Sox have a policy that they will not sign an extension to a young guy, unless they are able to buy at least a year of Free Agency.  So it would have to be a 4 year deal.  And they are not going to do that with Paps.

Chris i guess they won't but arb is not a pretty process. You can't also badmouth on paps performance much. Only things you could prob state is that closers lifeline is short, injuries occur etc.

IF i were pap i wouldn't be too pleased right now with pedroia and youk getting long term deals.

you can't say a closer role is not as important as any other roles. (two words eric gagne)

I don't think it bothers Paps one bit.  I think he wants to give up a year of free agency just as little as the Sox want to take the risk of giving him a longterm deal.

I don't think its the case of one side wanting it, and the other not.  I think both sides are comfortable enough with letting him play out the arbitration years (and lets not kid ourselves, he will never get to arbitration, they will agree on fair 1 year deals each season), that neither are willing to give in enough to find a middle ground. 

[Nerf DPOY]

I'd rather they try an extend Lester than Paps. Lester still has 4 years to go before he hits the open market, but I think that it would behoove the Sox to try and sign for 3-4 years after that if they can get a bargain. Although, obviously pitchers are fragile.......