1.) Not signing Posey or signing Posey to a two year, five dollar a year deal or a 5 year full MLE deal all guarantees the exact same thing. Nothing! And there's no way to prove that having him here makes it more likely than not that they would win another title. It can't be done, no one can prove the future or guarantee it.
2.) Ten months ago the Celtics players 4-12(including such players as Rondo, Perk, Powe, House and Posey) were being called the worst 4-12 in the league by at least one, long-time, well respected basketball pundit. By the end of the year it was being discussed that the Celtics might have had one of the best 4-12 player groups in the league and easily the best defensive 4-12 group in the league. Most of that group will return.
nick, it might not guarantee or prove anything. but i think it was pretty reasonable to have expected a similar contribution out of Posey next season. and by that i mean playing solid D, knocking down shots and being the same jovial presence in the locker room.
we know he was a good fit in the system and we know he played well off the big three....which is really the most you can expect out of a 6th man.
certainly he is replaceable, but any replacement is more of an x-factor than Posey and i don't see how we can't at least at this point in the off-season say that our team has been weakened by losing him.
it seems to me that the strong reaction to losing Poz stems from thinking about just how close this team is to becoming a Dynasty. the EC is very unstable and WC at least this past season beat the heck out of each other....
so the question then becomes: knowing how possible a Dynasty is, why put an x-factor in a spot where you have known quantity?
How did bringing back almost the same exact team work out for San Antonio last year? What about Miami in 2007 when they brought the same crew back that included Posey? What about Detroit in 2005?
It means nothing. Those three instances prove it. It is still possible for the Celtics to tweak the makeup of this team without Posey on it and be a better team. Is there an x-factor, for sure winsomme, of course there is. But that factor works in both directions not just the bad direction.
Who's to say a veteran presence like Kurt Thomas off the bench in the middle and the Celtics playing less small ball and hence only having to replace Posey's minutes at SF(about 10-11 per game) wouldn't be a better fit for this team? That kinda minimizes the actual extent of Posey's loss doesn't it. Thomas is a proven winner, leader, and contributor.
I don't buy the whole Posey's resigning means you can expect the same thing out of him and the team.
What happens if Rondo comes back to camp with a three point shot? Suddenly Posey's spacing as a three point weak side swing guy is less needed.
What happens if Walker comes out and shows he is a hell of a bargain? Danny has afterall had great 2nd round success, almost a player a year, and he is by far the most athletic player with the highest upside of any 2nd rounder he has drafted. Posey's loss is diminshed even more.
There are a ton of options and variables left that could and probably will affect the 2008-09 Celtics as much as Posey would have.
The difference is those options are going to come for millions less than a 4 year $25 million contract would have.
Could those options fail miserably, sure. But Posey could get injured in the first day of camp and be lost for the rest of his contract just as easily.