Jason Timpf of Hoops Tonight has a list of 10 title contenders with Boston rated #1 on his list. Most likely to win the title.
There are really only four true title contenders this year: Boston, Clevland, OKC, Denver
The two best teams in the league by record, the defending NBA Champion with the most talent in the league, the previous NBA champion with the best player in the league.
Thats it, one of those four will win it.
I continue to believe that the Cavs are pretenders. Their offense is reminiscent to me of the mid-2000s Hawks teams. They were a really good regular season team, but when things get more physical and slow down in the playoffs, they just aren't quite at that level.
I also am not completely sold on the Thunder for similar-ish reasons, but they seem better built for the playoffs due to their length and defense to me.
I also feel like the Nuggets had a good 15 game stretch and suddenly everyone forgot how bad they were earlier this season. They are also putting a lot of hope in Murray's health.
It's not like the Celtics have been dominate though either.
A 60-win pace with a +9.2 point differential is actually, historically speaking, pretty dominant.
Going back the lats 10 seasons including this one here's a list of teams who had a +9.0 or better differential and won (or on pace) for 59+ wins:
16' GSW, 16 SAS, 17' GSW, 20' MIL*, 21' UTA*, 24' BOS, 25' BOS, 25' CLE, 25' OKC
*=On pace to win 59+, but season was shortened.
So in the last 10 seasons only 9 teams have hit a +9.0 and 59+. the only reaosn that feels less impressive this year is that 3 of those 9 teams are doing it this year.
The thing about CLE/OKC/BOS is that if they were doing what they are doing this year in any other year they would have to be viewed as the overwhelming favorite, they just happen to be doing it in a year with multiple teams playing at an all time level.
I don't think the point differential means as much as it used to. The wild variance caused by 3 point shooting mean its easier for good regular season teams to blow other teams out. We are going to have to adjust our view of that point differential stat with the crazy 3 point shooting.
This is one of those times where all I can say is that, after watching basketball for several decades spanning multiple phases of the game, they look like a really good team, but not a true contender.
3 point shooting also has the opposite effect, it makes it easier for even lower talent teams to stay competitive in any given game with a hot shooting night, arguably making it harder too have an insane point differential.
In any case that'ss why I only went back ten years, ie the real heavy 3 point shooting era, and in that era only nine teams will have hit the +9, 59+ mark in 10 seasons including the C's this year. That's dominant, regardless of what you think about those numbers vs the pre-three era.
Again, the stat may appear next to others that are dominate. Not sold on the Cavs as a team when the bright lights are on them. What ends up happening is there is a wider discrepancy between good and bad teams, leading to wider point differentials. It may happen that a few times a bad team keeps the game closer than they should against this Cavs team, but it's far more often that a good team is able to separate further due to the three point shooting.
Also, even though the eras are similar, it's worth noting that the Cavs have already taken almost 100 more threes than the Warriors did in the entire 2014-2015 season. My hypothesis is that while people may currently group the last 10 years together, at some point a differentiation will need to be made.
I will give props to the Cavs defense, even if I question their ability to perform this well in the playoffs.
