2024 NBA Season and Playoffs

[cman88]

Ainge was obsessed with the undersized small guard. IT4/kyrie/Kemba....it was clear as day our defense/team took a big step forward when brad moved on from that and made Smart our starting guard. and went out and got white.

theres so many elite wings in the NBA. poor guard defense will just kill you.

I don't really see Milwaukee's defense improving. who is going to cover for dame? but like I said earlier, they kind of are stuck in that Middleton is a roleplayer now. so they need Dames scoring.

I also think firing Bud for no reason was a mistake. its early but bucks may be a paper tiger with a rookie coach and poor defense.

on the other end, I think we will be able to slow Dame down alot more with Jrue/white/brown and horford has always been decent on Giannis....than the bucks will be able to slow us down.

[Birdman]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

[cman88]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

[tazzmaniac]

Dame's non existent half hearted defence mercilessly exposed in this excellent article
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/damian-lillard-is-playing-the-worst-defense-of-his-career-and-it-might-cost-more-than-just-the-bucks/

Interesting article. As a small superstar guard there's not a lot more than you can ask for with the help of Antetokounmpo, Lopez, Middleton and Beasley. The writer argues that if Lillard can't compete with this roster it's the end of the small guard as a building block. Perhaps how non-multidimensional centers have become an afterthought on the payroll.

There may be some truth to this. Somewhat exaggerated there is the theory "the offense is as strong as your strongest attacker and the defense is as weak as your weakest link".

However, the Nuggets did just win the title with Jamal Murray at point guard. But like Irving he did it with the best player in the NBA at that time (James and Jokic). Is playing with a MVP the exception to the rule? And isn't Antetokounmpo also a former MVP or has he declined too much due to injuries and age (11th season)?

Are the Celtics on to something with the All Defense-backcourt in Holiday/White? Or is it all about the Moranis-MVP-argument that contending is dependent on the development of Tatum? And is focussing on other strategic team building almost useless? And where does the MVP-level-argument stop?

I think there would be consensus on Jokic, Embiid and Curry. Does Tatum belong? How about Doncic, Mitchell and SGA? Older former (Finals) MVP's: Antetokounmpo, Durant, James or healthy Leonard? Do they count?

If we disregard any team (without a MVP-type) with a (young) small or defensively weak guard as a likely contender for now and the future that would include almost all teams in the East besides the Celtics:

Cleveland (Garland, or does Mitchell count?), Atlanta (Young), New York (Brunson/Grimes), Miami (Herro), Chicago (White/LaVine), Indiana (Haliburton, some length to grow as a defender?), Charlotte (LaMelo Ball, same argument as Haliburton?), Detroit (Ivey/Cunningham), Toronto (Schröder), Brooklyn (Thomas) and Washington (Poole).

So Philadelphia (Maxey, countered by current MVP Embiid) is the only real obstacle for the Celtics to the conference title if we hardline the MVP-argument against Antetokounmpo and discount Milwaukee (Lillard). As a side note, is Orlando silently with a not an all that inspiring but defensively solid Fultz-Suggs backcourt actually on the right track?

In the West it's not all that different: Phoenix (Booker/Beal, but Durant?), LA Lakers (Russell, but James?), Dallas (Irving, but Doncic?), LA Clippers (Harden, but Leonard?), Sacramento (Fox/Huerter), Memphis (Morant), New Orleans (McCollum), Portland (Henderson/Simons), Utah (Clarkson/Sexton) and Houston (Green).

Minnesota (Edwards, inconsistent on defense but not a small frame) is on the edge. But Denver (Murray-KCP with Jokic) and Golden State (Curry-Thompson) would then be favorites in the West. And we also have OKC (SGA-Dort) and San Antonio (Sochan-Vassell).

The hard "You can't win with a small-guard-without-a-true-MVP"-theory indicates that Boston, Philadelphia, Denver and Golden State are the only contenders this season. And for the (perhaps near) future we should keep an eye on San Antonio (Sochan/Vassell with Wenbanyama), OKC (SGA/Dort with Holmgren) and Orlando (Fultz/Suggs with F.Wagner and Banchero).

A very interesting and valid point you make about the decline of Gianni's after 11 Seasons in the NBA. Have all those years crashing the paint and the multiple injuries taken their toll. You do have to wonder whether Gianni's has now passed his peak. Bigs do tend to decline rapidly in the NBA. Fortunately fom a Celtics perspective Tatum should now have his peak years ahead of him and the durable Al Horford has aged well. I can't imagine Giannis and Embiid still operating at an elite level when they are 37 years old.

Horford is far from elite now and he's never been elite.  To put him in the same conversation as Giannis and Embiid is silly.  Giannis will turn 29 in a month and Embiid is 29.  They are both in their prime.   Giannis doesn't shoot well and is very dependent on his athleticism so it will be interesting to see how long he can remain elite.  Embiid on the other hand is a very shooter and not that dependent on his athleticism.  He also hasn't played that much basketball.  Giannis has nearly twice as minutes played.  Tatum, while just 25, has 2300+ more minutes played than Embiid which is roughly a full season.  So I could see Embiid staying elite longer.

Maybe he should have said that he doubts Giannis or Embiid will be playing (even) at Al’s level at 37. May very well be true that they won’t.

Thanks to both previous posters for their clarification, I didn't intend to compare Al Horford with Embiid and Giannis directly from a purely talent point of view. I was indeed emphasizing Al's longevity and from that perspective it is more appropriate to question whether Giannis or Embiid will still be playing even at Al's level when they are 37.
I think it is also worthy to consider that Al Horford has been an effective wily? defender against both in recent years. To his credit Al Horford certainly bounced back from his ill-fated time at Philly. This may also be due in no small part to the fact that Al was and is a great fit to Boston's system. They don't make the finals nor ECF in the past 2 years without Al's contribution. Reliable and dependable lets get the man his ring this season.

Horford wasn't that good in last season's playoffs.  Over 20 games, he averaged 6.7pts (38.6% overall and 29.8% from 3).  One of my questions for this season is how effective he is really going to be as 6th man.  Part of that is how well he and KP can play together. 

As I previously said, I think Embiid is more likely than Giannis to still be playing effectively at 37.  Embiid's better skillset and less reliance on athleticism should mean more longevity.  I also think Embiid having play a lot less minutes means more longevity.  Horford and Embiid aren't similar but let's look at Brook Lopez.  Given how his early career was injury riddled is anyone not surprised that he's still playing strong at almost 36.  Some of that is that midcareer he went from not shooting 3s to a solid 3pt shooter.  If used properly, he's still playing defense well.  Embiid is much better and more skilled than Lopez was at age 29.  I could certainly see him playing as well or better than Lopez is at nearly 36.   

[tazzmaniac]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

Maxey, Harris and Oubre are actually scoring 20pts or more.  Maxey was a budding star last season scoring 20ppg in his 3rd season.  No surprise there.  Oubre is a chucker.  He scored 20ppg for Charlotte last season.  They're helped by Harden not being around.  Now Nurse has definitely helped Harris.  He's talked about needing to get Harris more involved in the offense and has done it. 

Oubre is definitely much better off on the Sixers and is a much better fit with them.  They need his scoring so his deficiencies are more acceptable.  He would not be a fan favorite if he was on the Celts. 

[tonydelk]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

Maxey, Harris and Oubre are actually scoring 20pts or more.  Maxey was a budding star last season scoring 20ppg in his 3rd season.  No surprise there.  Oubre is a chucker.  He scored 20ppg for Charlotte last season.  They're helped by Harden not being around.  Now Nurse has definitely helped Harris.  He's talked about needing to get Harris more involved in the offense and has done it. 

Oubre is definitely much better off on the Sixers and is a much better fit with them.  They need his scoring so his deficiencies are more acceptable.  He would not be a fan favorite if he was on the Celts.

Oubre was such a good pickup for them.  I hated they got him.  With harden gone he's a great fit. 

[SparzWizard]

This Sixers team may look better than the one that played against the Raptors in the 2019 playoffs.

Hope somebody takes them out early.

[hpantazo]

This Sixers team may look better than the one that played against the Raptors in the 2019 playoffs.

Hope somebody takes them out early.

Losing Harden was addition by subtraction. Also, they now have trade assets to add to this roster before the playoffs.

[Moranis]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

the Lakers were in the WCF last year though with roughly the same team and pretty inconsistent play throughout the regular season.  I think the belief is that Lebron can still carry a team during a playoff run.  I'm not sure that is true, but they've been way better with Lebron on the floor than when he sits.  His on/off differential per 100 possessions is an ASTRONOMICAL +46.5.  Overall Lebron is +47 in the 6 games.  The Lakers as a team are -23. So in Lebron's 214 minutes +47, in the 84 minutes he has been in the bench they are -70.  That isn't sustainable, but it also doesn't seem realistic either.  Those numbers should balance out more as the season goes one, which should make the Lakers better overall.

[hpantazo]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

the Lakers were in the WCF last year though with roughly the same team and pretty inconsistent play throughout the regular season.  I think the belief is that Lebron can still carry a team during a playoff run.  I'm not sure that is true, but they've been way better with Lebron on the floor than when he sits.  His on/off differential per 100 possessions is an ASTRONOMICAL +46.5.  Overall Lebron is +47 in the 6 games.  The Lakers as a team are -23. So in Lebron's 214 minutes +47, in the 84 minutes he has been in the bench they are -70.  That isn't sustainable, but it also doesn't seem realistic either.  Those numbers should balance out more as the season goes one, which should make the Lakers better overall.

The top half of the WC teams got a lot better this summer though, and the Lakers did not.

[Moranis]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

the Lakers were in the WCF last year though with roughly the same team and pretty inconsistent play throughout the regular season.  I think the belief is that Lebron can still carry a team during a playoff run.  I'm not sure that is true, but they've been way better with Lebron on the floor than when he sits.  His on/off differential per 100 possessions is an ASTRONOMICAL +46.5.  Overall Lebron is +47 in the 6 games.  The Lakers as a team are -23. So in Lebron's 214 minutes +47, in the 84 minutes he has been in the bench they are -70.  That isn't sustainable, but it also doesn't seem realistic either.  Those numbers should balance out more as the season goes one, which should make the Lakers better overall.

The top half of the WC teams got a lot better this summer though, and the Lakers did not.

Did they? I'm not so sure they did

[SHAQATTACK]

This Sixers team may look better than the one that played against the Raptors in the 2019 playoffs.

Hope somebody takes them out early.

Losing Harden was addition by subtraction. Also, they now have trade assets to add to this roster before the playoffs.

I never thought he added much to the team but a big distraction myself .

[celticsclay]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

the Lakers were in the WCF last year though with roughly the same team and pretty inconsistent play throughout the regular season.  I think the belief is that Lebron can still carry a team during a playoff run.  I'm not sure that is true, but they've been way better with Lebron on the floor than when he sits.  His on/off differential per 100 possessions is an ASTRONOMICAL +46.5.  Overall Lebron is +47 in the 6 games.  The Lakers as a team are -23. So in Lebron's 214 minutes +47, in the 84 minutes he has been in the bench they are -70.  That isn't sustainable, but it also doesn't seem realistic either.  Those numbers should balance out more as the season goes one, which should make the Lakers better overall.

The top half of the WC teams got a lot better this summer though, and the Lakers did not.

Did they? I'm not so sure they did

Who knows how it will work out but yea some teams in the west clearly made better additions on paper. The suns added an all star caliber player in Beal. The clippers added a guy you said was an all star level player in harden for scraps. Meanwhile early returns on the lakers adding Vincent, Hayes and reddish are not very good and certainly not in the realm of Beal or harden. Prince looks like a nice get but not really a true needle mover. And for now it appears a team like the pelicans has basically added Zion

[tazzmaniac]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

the Lakers were in the WCF last year though with roughly the same team and pretty inconsistent play throughout the regular season.  I think the belief is that Lebron can still carry a team during a playoff run.  I'm not sure that is true, but they've been way better with Lebron on the floor than when he sits.  His on/off differential per 100 possessions is an ASTRONOMICAL +46.5.  Overall Lebron is +47 in the 6 games.  The Lakers as a team are -23. So in Lebron's 214 minutes +47, in the 84 minutes he has been in the bench they are -70.  That isn't sustainable, but it also doesn't seem realistic either.  Those numbers should balance out more as the season goes one, which should make the Lakers better overall.

The top half of the WC teams got a lot better this summer though, and the Lakers did not.

Did they? I'm not so sure they did

Who knows how it will work out but yea some teams in the west clearly made better additions on paper. The suns added an all star caliber player in Beal. The clippers added a guy you said was an all star level player in harden for scraps. Meanwhile early returns on the lakers adding Vincent, Hayes and reddish are not very good and certainly not in the realm of Beal or harden. Prince looks like a nice get but not really a true needle mover. And for now it appears a team like the pelicans has basically added Zion

Would you want Beal or Harden on the Celts?  I certainly wouldn't.  Both are desperation moves that likely won't work out.  Not that I thought that highly of him but they didn't get much for Ayton.  As for the Lakers, they'll probably finish in the 6th through 8th spot. 

[BitterJim]

Tired of these experts saying Lakers are title contenders & will Chicago ax Billy Donovan during or after season?

media is obsessed with the lakers. they don't look any better than last year...

I think biggest surprise for me is the sixers. 4-1 with maxey/harris/oubre all scoring over 15ppg. hopefully nurse hasn't fixed them.

kinda wish we signed oubre for our bench. but maybe he would rather be with the sixers since he will get more minutes.

the Lakers were in the WCF last year though with roughly the same team and pretty inconsistent play throughout the regular season.  I think the belief is that Lebron can still carry a team during a playoff run.  I'm not sure that is true, but they've been way better with Lebron on the floor than when he sits.  His on/off differential per 100 possessions is an ASTRONOMICAL +46.5.  Overall Lebron is +47 in the 6 games.  The Lakers as a team are -23. So in Lebron's 214 minutes +47, in the 84 minutes he has been in the bench they are -70.  That isn't sustainable, but it also doesn't seem realistic either.  Those numbers should balance out more as the season goes one, which should make the Lakers better overall.

The top half of the WC teams got a lot better this summer though, and the Lakers did not.

Did they? I'm not so sure they did

Who knows how it will work out but yea some teams in the west clearly made better additions on paper. The suns added an all star caliber player in Beal. The clippers added a guy you said was an all star level player in harden for scraps. Meanwhile early returns on the lakers adding Vincent, Hayes and reddish are not very good and certainly not in the realm of Beal or harden. Prince looks like a nice get but not really a true needle mover. And for now it appears a team like the pelicans has basically added Zion

Would you want Beal or Harden on the Celts?  I certainly wouldn't.  Both are desperation moves that likely won't work out.  Not that I thought that highly of him but they didn't get much for Ayton.  As for the Lakers, they'll probably finish in the 6th through 8th spot.

I wouldn't want Beal's contract, but I would absolutely take him as a player. Especially if he's willing to be a 3rd option, like he should be in Phoenix. I wouldn't be interested in Harden, but he's still a good add for the Clippers