Patriots 2023 Season

[Celtics2021]

This is the whole problem or risk of drafting QBs.  You just never know.  Of the 3 that are the consensus top picks, I predict that one will become a very good QB, one will be come an average borderline starter, and one will be a total bust.  So which one?  Is it better for the Pats that Maye slides to 3?  Who know?  The scouts don't know, that has been proven many times, so certainly fans don't know.

As to Caleb Williams, who can forget the 49ers trading up for Trey Lance, giving up 3 firsts.  I know they figured these would be late firsts but still.  What percentage would people put on it that Williams is a star, average, or bust?  I say:

40% Star
20% Average
40% Bust

And this is the QB with the best chance of being good.  At least the Pats are not in the position where they would have to sell the farm to move up.  All they need to do is use the pick.  But there is still huge risk.

Your percentages are way off on Williams, and ignores the upside above “star”.  His upside is a generational quarterback who redefines the position.  He’s not your average #1 overall quarterback — he’s been the consensus #1 quarterback of this draft since about midway through his freshman season, and that has persisted.  I’m not saying he’s without risk.  Anyone can get hurt, of course.  But he’s best QB talent on draft day in some time.

[Roy H.]

This is the whole problem or risk of drafting QBs.  You just never know.  Of the 3 that are the consensus top picks, I predict that one will become a very good QB, one will be come an average borderline starter, and one will be a total bust.  So which one?  Is it better for the Pats that Maye slides to 3?  Who know?  The scouts don't know, that has been proven many times, so certainly fans don't know.

As to Caleb Williams, who can forget the 49ers trading up for Trey Lance, giving up 3 firsts.  I know they figured these would be late firsts but still.  What percentage would people put on it that Williams is a star, average, or bust?  I say:

40% Star
20% Average
40% Bust

And this is the QB with the best chance of being good.  At least the Pats are not in the position where they would have to sell the farm to move up.  All they need to do is use the pick.  But there is still huge risk.

Your percentages are way off on Williams, and ignores the upside above “star”.  His upside is a generational quarterback who redefines the position.  He’s not your average #1 overall quarterback — he’s been the consensus #1 quarterback of this draft since about midway through his freshman season, and that has persisted.  I’m not saying he’s without risk.  Anyone can get hurt, of course.  But he’s best QB talent on draft day in some time.

Yeah, scouts place Williams in the same category as Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.  Lawrence is the worst of that grouping, and he's still a good NFL QB.  He rates well above other #1 overall QBs (Mayfield, Murray, Goff, Winston, Young, etc.)

Scouts are obviously making educated guesses and will miss sometimes, or will overlook elite talent.  But, it might be a decade before there's another draft prospect rated as highly as Williams. 

[Goldstar88]

This is the whole problem or risk of drafting QBs.  You just never know.  Of the 3 that are the consensus top picks, I predict that one will become a very good QB, one will be come an average borderline starter, and one will be a total bust.  So which one?  Is it better for the Pats that Maye slides to 3?  Who know?  The scouts don't know, that has been proven many times, so certainly fans don't know.

As to Caleb Williams, who can forget the 49ers trading up for Trey Lance, giving up 3 firsts.  I know they figured these would be late firsts but still.  What percentage would people put on it that Williams is a star, average, or bust?  I say:

40% Star
20% Average
40% Bust

And this is the QB with the best chance of being good.  At least the Pats are not in the position where they would have to sell the farm to move up.  All they need to do is use the pick.  But there is still huge risk.

Your percentages are way off on Williams, and ignores the upside above “star”.  His upside is a generational quarterback who redefines the position.  He’s not your average #1 overall quarterback — he’s been the consensus #1 quarterback of this draft since about midway through his freshman season, and that has persisted.  I’m not saying he’s without risk.  Anyone can get hurt, of course.  But he’s best QB talent on draft day in some time.

Yeah, scouts place Williams in the same category as Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.  Lawrence is the worst of that grouping, and he's still a good NFL QB.  He rates well above other #1 overall QBs (Mayfield, Murray, Goff, Winston, Young, etc.)

Scouts are obviously making educated guesses and will miss sometimes, or will overlook elite talent.  But, it might be a decade before there's another draft prospect rated as highly as Williams.

If that’s the case, why is there any discussion about Chicago potentially keeping Fields and trading the pick. If Caleb has that kind of upside it should be a very easy decision for them to make.

[Roy H.]

This is the whole problem or risk of drafting QBs.  You just never know.  Of the 3 that are the consensus top picks, I predict that one will become a very good QB, one will be come an average borderline starter, and one will be a total bust.  So which one?  Is it better for the Pats that Maye slides to 3?  Who know?  The scouts don't know, that has been proven many times, so certainly fans don't know.

As to Caleb Williams, who can forget the 49ers trading up for Trey Lance, giving up 3 firsts.  I know they figured these would be late firsts but still.  What percentage would people put on it that Williams is a star, average, or bust?  I say:

40% Star
20% Average
40% Bust

And this is the QB with the best chance of being good.  At least the Pats are not in the position where they would have to sell the farm to move up.  All they need to do is use the pick.  But there is still huge risk.

Your percentages are way off on Williams, and ignores the upside above “star”.  His upside is a generational quarterback who redefines the position.  He’s not your average #1 overall quarterback — he’s been the consensus #1 quarterback of this draft since about midway through his freshman season, and that has persisted.  I’m not saying he’s without risk.  Anyone can get hurt, of course.  But he’s best QB talent on draft day in some time.

Yeah, scouts place Williams in the same category as Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.  Lawrence is the worst of that grouping, and he's still a good NFL QB.  He rates well above other #1 overall QBs (Mayfield, Murray, Goff, Winston, Young, etc.)

Scouts are obviously making educated guesses and will miss sometimes, or will overlook elite talent.  But, it might be a decade before there's another draft prospect rated as highly as Williams.

If that’s the case, why is there any discussion about Chicago potentially keeping Fields and trading the pick. If Caleb has that kind of upside it should be a very easy decision for them to make.

I don't think there's much of a debate internally.  The consensus is that the Bears are going to take Fields.  Those that you hear disagree are generally 1) fans 2) players and 3) haters.  Fans and players don't spend a lot of time evaluating prospects.

And, it's obviously not Fields vs. Williams in a vacuum.  It's Fields + whatever the Bears got for the #1 pick vs. Williams (and whatever the Bears get for Fields).  Last year, the Bears got two #1s, two #2s, and a really good WR for the #1 pick in a much weaker draft.  That's turned into three starters, with the potential to draft two more. 

I'm a fan.  I'm invested in Justin Fields.  He's a ton of fun to watch, and he's good enough to be a "game manager" type of QB on a championship squad.  Surrounding him with talent intrigues me.  So, if we could trade back -- ending up with Harrison and a LT, and maybe a defensive starter along with future picks -- I'd be thrilled.  For team management, though, they've got the chance to draft a Josh Allen level talent and keep him on a rookie contract for five seasons. 

[Vermont Green]

This is the whole problem or risk of drafting QBs.  You just never know.  Of the 3 that are the consensus top picks, I predict that one will become a very good QB, one will be come an average borderline starter, and one will be a total bust.  So which one?  Is it better for the Pats that Maye slides to 3?  Who know?  The scouts don't know, that has been proven many times, so certainly fans don't know.

As to Caleb Williams, who can forget the 49ers trading up for Trey Lance, giving up 3 firsts.  I know they figured these would be late firsts but still.  What percentage would people put on it that Williams is a star, average, or bust?  I say:

40% Star
20% Average
40% Bust

And this is the QB with the best chance of being good.  At least the Pats are not in the position where they would have to sell the farm to move up.  All they need to do is use the pick.  But there is still huge risk.

Your percentages are way off on Williams, and ignores the upside above “star”.  His upside is a generational quarterback who redefines the position.  He’s not your average #1 overall quarterback — he’s been the consensus #1 quarterback of this draft since about midway through his freshman season, and that has persisted.  I’m not saying he’s without risk.  Anyone can get hurt, of course.  But he’s best QB talent on draft day in some time.

I don't know.  I am just basing this on the historic performance of can't miss top picks.  Some of them miss.  Maybe Caleb Williams is a sure thing.  I don't know and I am not sure the scouts do either.  I think the Bears would trade this pick for the right package, although predict that they take Williams and trade Fields.

A generational QB can change the trajectory of the franchise for years.  Using a top pick on a bust can set a franchise back for years.  Certainly trading a boatload of picks to move up and then picking a bust is even worse.

I am fine with the Pats taking a QB at 3.  I suspect that will be how this goes in the end.  I would be extremely disappointed if they trade up for Williams.  Belichick would have likely traded the pick for a small boatload (not as big a boatload as CHI may get for Williams).  But it is probably no better than 50/50 that either Maye or Daniels will become a star.  One of them will probably be a bust.  It is a role of the dice.

[johnnygreen]

I'm getting a 2017 NBA draft vibe from this upcoming NFL draft. I've seen Caleb Williams play, and I just don't see it. I also worry how a consensus #1 QB on a loaded USC team can't lead his team to a better record than 8-5. Not to mention the question of his mental toughness.

One thing that I also don't understand is how no one brings up the fact that Jayden Daniels played in college for 5 years. That seems to be a negative for Nix and Penix. Yet, there is noise that Daniels has moved past Drake Maye for #2.

I'm getting the feeling the Patriots may quietly get the best QB in the draft when it's all said and done.

#1 Markelle Fultz - Caleb Williams (both consensus can't miss #1 pre-draft picks)
#2 Lonzo Ball - Jayden Daniels (both flashy players)
#3 Jayson Tatum - Drake Maye (really good, but just the other guy)

[Roy H.]

I've seen Caleb Williams play, and I just don't see it. I also worry how a consensus #1 QB on a loaded USC team can't lead his team to a better record than 8-5. Not to mention the question of his mental toughness.

Was USC really that loaded?  They've got two top-100 prospects, and only one on offense (Williams).

In USC's losses, they gave up 52, 48, 38, 36 and 34 points.  In three other games that USC won, the defense gave up 49, 41 and 41 points.  USC ranked 116th out of 130 teams in yards per game and 126th (!!) in touchdowns against.

Meanwhile, USC ranked 3rd in scoring offense.

If Williams was on a team with a top 25 defense he probably wins the national championship.

[SparzWizard]

I'm getting a 2017 NBA draft vibe from this upcoming NFL draft. I've seen Caleb Williams play, and I just don't see it. I also worry how a consensus #1 QB on a loaded USC team can't lead his team to a better record than 8-5. Not to mention the question of his mental toughness.

One thing that I also don't understand is how no one brings up the fact that Jayden Daniels played in college for 5 years. That seems to be a negative for Nix and Penix. Yet, there is noise that Daniels has moved past Drake Maye for #2.

I'm getting the feeling the Patriots may quietly get the best QB in the draft when it's all said and done.

#1 Markelle Fultz - Caleb Williams (both consensus can't miss #1 pre-draft picks)
#2 Lonzo Ball - Jayden Daniels (both flashy players)
#3 Jayson Tatum - Drake Maye (really good, but just the other guy)

So it'll be a bust, knee injuries, and constant AFCCG or Superbowl exits? 

[johnnygreen]

I've seen Caleb Williams play, and I just don't see it. I also worry how a consensus #1 QB on a loaded USC team can't lead his team to a better record than 8-5. Not to mention the question of his mental toughness.

Was USC really that loaded?  They've got two top-100 prospects, and only one on offense (Williams).

In USC's losses, they gave up 52, 48, 38, 36 and 34 points.  In three other games that USC won, the defense gave up 49, 41 and 41 points.  USC ranked 116th out of 130 teams in yards per game and 126th (!!) in touchdowns against.

Meanwhile, USC ranked 3rd in scoring offense.

If Williams was on a team with a top 25 defense he probably wins the national championship.

Whenever I watched USC play, Marshawn Lloyd (running back), always looked like their best player.

Lincoln Riley is their head coach, and one of the best young head coaches in the country. I hardly doubt he hasn't recruited top talent to USC. Maybe I overstated the loaded part, but the team has enough talent, where Caleb Williams should have put the team over the top.

[Roy H.]

I've seen Caleb Williams play, and I just don't see it. I also worry how a consensus #1 QB on a loaded USC team can't lead his team to a better record than 8-5. Not to mention the question of his mental toughness.

Was USC really that loaded?  They've got two top-100 prospects, and only one on offense (Williams).

In USC's losses, they gave up 52, 48, 38, 36 and 34 points.  In three other games that USC won, the defense gave up 49, 41 and 41 points.  USC ranked 116th out of 130 teams in yards per game and 126th (!!) in touchdowns against.

Meanwhile, USC ranked 3rd in scoring offense.

If Williams was on a team with a top 25 defense he probably wins the national championship.

Whenever I watched USC play, Marshawn Lloyd (running back), always looked like their best player.

Lincoln Riley is their head coach, and one of the best young head coaches in the country. I hardly doubt he hasn't recruited top talent to USC. Maybe I overstated the loaded part, but the team has enough talent, where Caleb Williams should have put the team over the top.

Again, USC had the worst defense of any major program in the country.  Michigan gave up around 10 points per game; USC was giving up 35.

It's weird to me to criticize the guy leading the #3 offense in the country for not doing enough.  3600 yards, 30 TDs, only 5 INTs and a 68.6% completion percentage.

Last year (on 112 more attempts):  4500 yards, 42 TDs.

He's an elite prospect.

[Donoghus]

I've seen Caleb Williams play, and I just don't see it. I also worry how a consensus #1 QB on a loaded USC team can't lead his team to a better record than 8-5. Not to mention the question of his mental toughness.

Was USC really that loaded?  They've got two top-100 prospects, and only one on offense (Williams).

In USC's losses, they gave up 52, 48, 38, 36 and 34 points.  In three other games that USC won, the defense gave up 49, 41 and 41 points.  USC ranked 116th out of 130 teams in yards per game and 126th (!!) in touchdowns against.

Meanwhile, USC ranked 3rd in scoring offense.

If Williams was on a team with a top 25 defense he probably wins the national championship.

Whenever I watched USC play, Marshawn Lloyd (running back), always looked like their best player.

Lincoln Riley is their head coach, and one of the best young head coaches in the country. I hardly doubt he hasn't recruited top talent to USC. Maybe I overstated the loaded part, but the team has enough talent, where Caleb Williams should have put the team over the top.

Again, USC had the worst defense of any major program in the country.  Michigan gave up around 10 points per game; USC was giving up 35.

Yeah, the D was atrocious.  Tough to overcome that.  Even with a very good offense. 

Tough to take a ton from last season with him.  The skill set & potential are certainly there.  He's certainly oozing talent.  My doubts lie in his head.  Think there is some maturity issues there and maybe a question of focus.

[Roy H.]

I've seen Caleb Williams play, and I just don't see it. I also worry how a consensus #1 QB on a loaded USC team can't lead his team to a better record than 8-5. Not to mention the question of his mental toughness.

Was USC really that loaded?  They've got two top-100 prospects, and only one on offense (Williams).

In USC's losses, they gave up 52, 48, 38, 36 and 34 points.  In three other games that USC won, the defense gave up 49, 41 and 41 points.  USC ranked 116th out of 130 teams in yards per game and 126th (!!) in touchdowns against.

Meanwhile, USC ranked 3rd in scoring offense.

If Williams was on a team with a top 25 defense he probably wins the national championship.

Whenever I watched USC play, Marshawn Lloyd (running back), always looked like their best player.

Lincoln Riley is their head coach, and one of the best young head coaches in the country. I hardly doubt he hasn't recruited top talent to USC. Maybe I overstated the loaded part, but the team has enough talent, where Caleb Williams should have put the team over the top.

Again, USC had the worst defense of any major program in the country.  Michigan gave up around 10 points per game; USC was giving up 35.

Yeah, the D was atrocious.  Tough to overcome that.  Even with a very good offense. 

Tough to take a ton from last season with him.  The skill set & potential are certainly there.  He's certainly oozing talent.  My doubts lie in his head.  Think there is some maturity issues there and maybe a question of focus.

Yeah.  I do wonder about the sourcing with some of the criticism.  For instance, the story about Williams demanding an ownership stake in whatever team drafted him.  That came from Mike Florio, who has some sources but also puts out an enormous amount of garbage.  Since a rookie owning a piece of a team was illegal even before the recent rule change, I think that's probably BS.  The "he hasn't declared for the draft yet, so that means he's avoiding the Bears" is nonsense, too.

There are some legit question marks.  But, on the field he got it done.  Even in a year where USC relied more on the run (to their detriment) Williams still put up top-10 QB numbers in yards and TDs.

[Goldstar88]

With the Patriots potentially picking a quarterback with the third overall pick, Van Pelt was asked what traits he looks for when evaluating a young quarterback.

"Just goes back to decision-making, accuracy, the fundamentals, mechanics, if the guy is sound. Big one again is leadership. Was he a three-year captain? You know, why wasn't he a captain? So all that really plays together," he explained. "The big piece for me is the leadership, the toughness, the accuracy and the decision-making. All four are super important."

[Vermont Green]

With the Patriots potentially picking a quarterback with the third overall pick, Van Pelt was asked what traits he looks for when evaluating a young quarterback.

"Just goes back to decision-making, accuracy, the fundamentals, mechanics, if the guy is sound. Big one again is leadership. Was he a three-year captain? You know, why wasn't he a captain? So all that really plays together," he explained. "The big piece for me is the leadership, the toughness, the accuracy and the decision-making. All four are super important."

I get that most of this is just cliché but I don't think it matters much how tough a QB is or how much of a leader he was in college, if he isn't accurate and can't make the quick decisions or reads.  I do agree that accuracy is more important than pure arm strength, but there is a base level of arm strength that is needed.  I would think that any athlete that is playing at an elite college level is going to be tough enough or competitive enough, but I guess you don't want to take a QB that is too quirky.  The decision making is the trait that is hard to measure.

[Donoghus]

I think at this point, I'd be more shocked if they stand pat and draft a QB at #3 rather than drafting WR/OL or simply trading down and addressing QB via free agency.