Patriots 2023 Season

[Celtics2021]

Saw a mock today that had the Bears trading Fields to Vikings for 12th pick, which gave the Bears 3 top 12 picks in the draft.  They had them taking Williams at 1, Turner at 8, and Latham at 12.

Maye went 2 and Harrison ended up at 3.  They had the Pats taking Daniels at 4.

No way can the Bears get that type of return for Fields.  If they can, they should do it, but he’s not bringing a mid-1st in this draft.  Maybe a conditional pick that can turn into a 1st in 2025, but not #12 in four months.

[Neurotic Guy]

WT

[boscel33]

Arizona looks like they are sticking with Murray.  Although I feel as though Chicago should stick Fields and draft Harrison, I don't think they will.  This means, either the Pats make a deal to move up or they sit where they land and play it out.  The Denver and Pittsburg games coming back to haunt the franchise!  The worse kicker in the league hits a game winner in Denver for a career long too.  Are you kidding me!!

[Vermont Green]

Jayden Daniels seems to be getting a lot of attention as the QB for the Pats.  I can see why, 6'-4", efficient passer (based on stats anyway), can run/move/extend plays, what is not to like?  Has 5 seasons in college though, 3 at ASU (one only 4 games) and 2 at LSU.  Just turned 23 (Drake Maye for comparison is 21).

My understanding is that we could get anywhere from pick 3 to 7.  We are probably going to beat the Jets at home so more realistically pick 5-7.  I saw a mock that had Williams, Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy all going in the top 5.  Of these 4, historically half will be busts, one decent, one really good. 

It just seems like a huge risk to take a QB, but I am not sure you can pass up the chance to get a top QB.  Is it better to take a QB in the second round?  There still may be some good ones available.

I suspect that the Pats will end up liking 1 or 2 of the 4 or so top QBs, but not all of them (hopefully they choose right which seems very hard to do).  If they can't get one of their guys, then they probably should take a tackle and move on.  If you can get Maye or Daniels (for example), fine, take your QB, if not, don't reach and take McCarthy or Penix.  Not sure where Williams fits in.  I have my doubts on him and would rather they not pick him.

[A Future of Stevens]

Under any normal circumstance, you have to keep the streak against the Jets alive. This is a must lose game. Even if you don't love the top of this draft, having the 2nd or 3rd pick as an "asset" is just better than pick 5-7.

I think the top 5 or 6 picks of this draft is littered with blue chip prospects. I question Williams attitude and off field things, but he is a great on field prospect. I love Maye. I don't see when people think he is LIKELY to bust (outside of half of QB prospects don't hit.) He is accurate to 3 levels of the field, cannon for an arm, and isn't afraid to run. I could be talked into Jayden Daniels in that 4-6 range.

If the QBs are gone, maybe take MHJ. I am not confident about having a terrible QB throwing to him, but it is what it is.

I think I would land on a tackle if the 2 QBs are gone. Olu is the best pass protector in years, and is a great run defender. Joe Alt is a mammoth who is a great pass protector and a mauling super elite run blocker.

A draft with 2 blue chip QBs, the best WR prospect since at least Chase, 2 blue chip prototype tackles and the best TE prospect in a long time is a great draft. I love Bowers, whoever gets him at 10ish is going to be very happy.

[Moranis]

Starting with the Drew Brees draft of 2001, here is the list of 2nd round QB's

01 - Brees, quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
06 - Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
07 - Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
08 - Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
09 - Pat White
10 - Jimmy Clausen
11 - Dalton, Kaepernick
12 - Brock Osweiler
13 - Geno Smith
14 - Carr, Jimmy G
16 - Christian Hackenberg
17 - DeShone Kizer
19 - Drew Lock
20 - Hurts
21 - Kyle Trask
23 - Levis

So if you think 1st round QB's are a crap shoot, I present 2nd round QB's.  Only 2 true franchise level guys in Brees and Hurts, a few solid starter types: Dalton, Kaep, Carr, Geno, Jimmy G, a promising enough young guy in Levis, and then a collection of bad to horrid.

In other words, don't mess around with a top 5 pick. Take the QB. 

[Moranis]

And after 2nd  round is much worse hit rates. If you don't end up with an outright bust, you will get someone like Matt Schaub or McCown. I mean seriously since Brady the best QB's post round 2 are Cassel, Dak, Brisset, and Purdy except for 2012 which had Wilson, Cousins, and Foles (very strange draft).

Don't mess around. Take the QB, whoever it is.

[Roy H.]

And after 2nd  round is much worse hit rates. If you don't end up with an outright bust, you will get someone like Matt Schaub or McCown. I mean seriously since Brady the best QB's post round 2 are Cassel, Dak, Brisset, and Purdy except for 2012 which had Wilson, Cousins, and Foles (very strange draft).

Don't mess around. Take the QB, whoever it is.

Yeah.  Jarrett Stidham and Bailey Zappe are the type of guys you end up after the second round if all goes well.  Guys who are competent backups but that shouldn't be trusted to start many games. 

[BitterJim]

And after 2nd  round is much worse hit rates. If you don't end up with an outright bust, you will get someone like Matt Schaub or McCown. I mean seriously since Brady the best QB's post round 2 are Cassel, Dak, Brisset, and Purdy except for 2012 which had Wilson, Cousins, and Foles (very strange draft).

Don't mess around. Take the QB, whoever it is.

This is a good argument for not taking a QB after the second (and above for not taking one IN the second, either), but the final conclusion that you should take a QB "whoever it is" doesn't follow at all. You aren't better off taking a QB that you know will bust, it just means that you should wait another year before you take a QB (or look to trade for one instead of drafting one)

[Moranis]

And after 2nd  round is much worse hit rates. If you don't end up with an outright bust, you will get someone like Matt Schaub or McCown. I mean seriously since Brady the best QB's post round 2 are Cassel, Dak, Brisset, and Purdy except for 2012 which had Wilson, Cousins, and Foles (very strange draft).

Don't mess around. Take the QB, whoever it is.

This is a good argument for not taking a QB after the second (and above for not taking one IN the second, either), but the final conclusion that you should take a QB "whoever it is" doesn't follow at all. You aren't better off taking a QB that you know will bust, it just means that you should wait another year before you take a QB (or look to trade for one instead of drafting one)

I obviously wasn't saying you should take a 3rd round talent in the top 5, but you should take your guy, whoever that guy is (teams evaluate differently so who your guy is can vary team to team).

[Vermont Green]

I found a list of the top 10 QBs currently (statistical) and looked at when they were drafted.  The ranking is by NFL.com and appears to be based on only this season.

Tua            #5 2020
Jackson    #32 2018
Prescott    4th RND 2016
Allen         #7 2018
Stafford     #1 2009
Hurts        2nd RND 2020
Goff          #1 2016
Mayfield    #1 2018
Purdy        7th RND 2022
Mahomes  #10 2017

3 are #1 pick, 3 are 5-10 picks, Jackson the last pick in the first (so really more of a second round type of pick), and 3 are 2nd round or later (some much later).  A lot of top 3 and top 10 picks are used on QBs.  A lot don't work out.  It is hard to find a good QB even with a top pick, it gets even harder using later picks.  Recently, SF gave a king's ransom to trade up and pick a QB that bombed.  SF is supposed to be a good organization, smart football people.

When drafting pretty much any other position, you can say, we need a tackle, let's take the best tackle when it is our turn to pick.  You do that and you are probably OK.  But you can't really do that with QB.  You can't just say, we need a QB so take the best one left at pick #6 or whatever.  That is how you get stuck with a bust.  QBs either make it or they don't.  Other positions are not so binary.  Even a top tackle that doesn't cut it at LT, maybe they play at RT or something.  Or becomes a depth piece, still some value.

[johnnygreen]

I still say Mac Jones would have been a solid starting QB in the league had Belichick not ruined him. I also believe your only going to waste another QB and pick, if they use their first pick on a QB, while still having Belichick, that awful offensive line, and dreadful receiving core.

Would the better course of action be to draft an elite WR or tackle, and either sign a veteran QB in free agency (Baker Mayfield) or trade for one (Kyler Murray)? I have my doubts that Arizona won't draft a QB. Why alienate Murray now, when they don't know who will be available before they draft. I'm only giving those two names as an example. Drafting a QB is the ultimate unknown variable, so why not reduce the risk by trading for or signing a known asset.

[Roy H.]

I still say Mac Jones would have been a solid starting QB in the league had Belichick not ruined him.

If BB can ruin him that quickly, my guess is that he never would have been successful.  A big part of QBing is mental toughness.  Half the QBs in the league have spent significant time behind a bad line with a bad coordinator.

[BitterJim]

And after 2nd  round is much worse hit rates. If you don't end up with an outright bust, you will get someone like Matt Schaub or McCown. I mean seriously since Brady the best QB's post round 2 are Cassel, Dak, Brisset, and Purdy except for 2012 which had Wilson, Cousins, and Foles (very strange draft).

Don't mess around. Take the QB, whoever it is.

This is a good argument for not taking a QB after the second (and above for not taking one IN the second, either), but the final conclusion that you should take a QB "whoever it is" doesn't follow at all. You aren't better off taking a QB that you know will bust, it just means that you should wait another year before you take a QB (or look to trade for one instead of drafting one)

I obviously wasn't saying you should take a 3rd round talent in the top 5, but you should take your guy, whoever that guy is (teams evaluate differently so who your guy is can vary team to team).

Makes sense, I agree with that. It's better to try for a first round QB and have a bust than try to get buy with later guys that have no top potential, top QBs are just that impactful.

[Goldstar88]

I still say Mac Jones would have been a solid starting QB in the league had Belichick not ruined him.

If BB can ruin him that quickly, my guess is that he never would have been successful.  A big part of QBing is mental toughness.  Half the QBs in the league have spent significant time behind a bad line with a bad coordinator.

 He had a good rookie season. Took 3 years for Bill to ruin him.