Patriots 2023 Season

[boscel33]

I've been touting the wrong plan for the Pats. 

All along, I wanted them to finish in the top two or three and get a rookie, but I think I want the Pats to sign Baker Mayfield then in the 1st take the OT and in the second a WR. 

Baker has 3600 yds passing with 2 games left, 26/8 TD/INT, 64.3 Comp%, and an overall rating of 96.2.  He's only 28 and with this D, might be a quick rebuild with Rhomondre, Bourne, Douglas, Henry, and the 2nd round WR. 

They're also going to have 75M in cap space, they might even get a WR like Higgins to put with him and let's not forget, Belichick convinced Baker's agent in '18 to have a meeting with the Pats.

[Ed Monix]

I've been touting the wrong plan for the Pats. 

All along, I wanted them to finish in the top two or three and get a rookie, but I think I want the Pats to sign Baker Mayfield then in the 1st take the OT and in the second a WR. 

Baker has 3600 yds passing with 2 games left, 26/8 TD/INT, 64.3 Comp%, and an overall rating of 96.2.  He's only 28 and with this D, might be a quick rebuild with Rhomondre, Bourne, Douglas, Henry, and the 2nd round WR. 

They're also going to have 75M in cap space, they might even get a WR like Higgins to put with him and let's not forget, Belichick convinced Baker's agent in '18 to have a meeting with the Pats.

I think the Patriots can still pick a quarterback in the first round, it just doesn’t need to be a top three pick.

Jacoby Brissett is a free agent option in 2024 & a solid starter who knows how to operate under Belichick.

[SparzWizard]

I've been touting the wrong plan for the Pats. 

All along, I wanted them to finish in the top two or three and get a rookie, but I think I want the Pats to sign Baker Mayfield then in the 1st take the OT and in the second a WR. 

Baker has 3600 yds passing with 2 games left, 26/8 TD/INT, 64.3 Comp%, and an overall rating of 96.2.  He's only 28 and with this D, might be a quick rebuild with Rhomondre, Bourne, Douglas, Henry, and the 2nd round WR. 

They're also going to have 75M in cap space, they might even get a WR like Higgins to put with him and let's not forget, Belichick convinced Baker's agent in '18 to have a meeting with the Pats.

TBH don't mind Baker Mayfield. Get him an oline and some weapons and the Pats may make noise again.

But Tampa might wanna keep him. He's playing out of his mind right now for them.

[Neurotic Guy]

I've been touting the wrong plan for the Pats. 

All along, I wanted them to finish in the top two or three and get a rookie, but I think I want the Pats to sign Baker Mayfield then in the 1st take the OT and in the second a WR. 

Baker has 3600 yds passing with 2 games left, 26/8 TD/INT, 64.3 Comp%, and an overall rating of 96.2.  He's only 28 and with this D, might be a quick rebuild with Rhomondre, Bourne, Douglas, Henry, and the 2nd round WR. 

They're also going to have 75M in cap space, they might even get a WR like Higgins to put with him and let's not forget, Belichick convinced Baker's agent in '18 to have a meeting with the Pats.

I think the Patriots can still pick a quarterback in the first round, it just doesn’t need to be a top three pick.

Jacoby Brissett is a free agent option in 2024 & a solid starter who knows how to operate under Belichick.

Jacoby sounds good as a bridge QB -- but Zappe might be fine as a bridge QB.  Those of you who actually know college football (unlike me), assuming Williams goes #1, what do you think of Maye v. Daniels, and Nix or Penix as next tier?  Who is worth a high #1 pick v. spending it on a blue chip OT? 

[Moranis]

You take Harrison if he is available, but no way I take Daniels at 3 or 4. Way too high for him.  If you can't get Harrison (or Maye) and don't find a trade you like, you take the best lineman whoever that is amongst, Fashanu, Alt, or Latham.

Guys over on Patriots Today/Chat Sports made a great point that it is a lot harder to find a stud Tackle than stud Wide Receiver. Basically, saying that as much superstar potential as Harrison Jr. has, Alt has that at Tackle. It's not as sexy a position, but certainly one of the most important. You draft him you have a 6'8" monster protecting your QB for the next 10-15 years. Preference would still be to take Wiliams/Maye but if you can't draft there or trade up, it wouldn't be a bad way to start rebuilding this team.

Except, there are a lot of busts at OT and I don't think any of the 3 top 15ish guys this year are sure things.   

[Moranis]

I'm starting to think if they have #3 or #4, they might trade down to the 6-8 range, draft either an OT, or Jayden Daniels, and then with an additional late 1st or early 2nd round pick maybe take a WR like Coleman from Florida State.

Obviously the big question is, how do they feel about Jayden Daniels. If they love him, they could just take him outright. If not, then it's probably drafting a legit tackle (Latham, Atl or Fashanu), and then either getting a QB late 1st round or early 2nd (like Penix/Nix, etc.) or drafting a WR.

Call me crazy but I'm sort of coming around to Baker Mayfield. He's still just 28 years old and the Pats definitely had interest in him in the 2018 draft. He's having a great year, might get a similar deal that Geno Smith did which to me would be fine. If you're already drafting a legit tackle and maybe adding a WR in the draft, you can afford to splurge a little on QB, but it's not like Geno's contract in today's league is "detrimental". The defense is already mostly set too with Judon + Gonzalez returning.

And yeah, maybe he doesn't "thread the needle" but what QB in the draft does if you can't get Williams/Maye? Some of these guys could end up being busts too especially after Williams/Maye/Daniels. This team will have a ton of cap space after this season as well.

probably need a top 20 pick to get Coleman.  Baker could certainly work as an ok starting QB, but I don't think he leaves Tampa unless they get really cheap and don't offer him a decent contract (something like what Geno or D. Jones got). 

[Moranis]

I've been touting the wrong plan for the Pats. 

All along, I wanted them to finish in the top two or three and get a rookie, but I think I want the Pats to sign Baker Mayfield then in the 1st take the OT and in the second a WR. 

Baker has 3600 yds passing with 2 games left, 26/8 TD/INT, 64.3 Comp%, and an overall rating of 96.2.  He's only 28 and with this D, might be a quick rebuild with Rhomondre, Bourne, Douglas, Henry, and the 2nd round WR. 

They're also going to have 75M in cap space, they might even get a WR like Higgins to put with him and let's not forget, Belichick convinced Baker's agent in '18 to have a meeting with the Pats.

I think the Patriots can still pick a quarterback in the first round, it just doesn’t need to be a top three pick.

Jacoby Brissett is a free agent option in 2024 & a solid starter who knows how to operate under Belichick.

Jacoby sounds good as a bridge QB -- but Zappe might be fine as a bridge QB.  Those of you who actually know college football (unlike me), assuming Williams goes #1, what do you think of Maye v. Daniels, and Nix or Penix as next tier?  Who is worth a high #1 pick v. spending it on a blue chip OT?

Maye is a prototypical modern QB. He also doesn't seem to be a guy that can cause some issues like Williams might. Williams has more talent so he probably goes 1, but if you told me in 10 years 1 of Williams or Maye is a bust and the other is a all pro, I'd probably peg Maye as the all pro (I think they will both succeed and have great careers, but the off field stuff with Williams is a bit concerning). Daniels is more of a runner and those guys often don't live up to the billing because they often aren't good enough throwers.  I wouldn't take Daniels where he is seemingly being projected, if he drops back to mid-1st he'd be worth the pick, but I wouldn't want him in the top 10.  I'd stay away from Penix and Nix entirely, as I don't think they will be very good.  If McCarthy falls to late 1st or early 2nd, I think he may be worth nabbing there.

[Neurotic Guy]

I've been touting the wrong plan for the Pats. 

All along, I wanted them to finish in the top two or three and get a rookie, but I think I want the Pats to sign Baker Mayfield then in the 1st take the OT and in the second a WR. 

Baker has 3600 yds passing with 2 games left, 26/8 TD/INT, 64.3 Comp%, and an overall rating of 96.2.  He's only 28 and with this D, might be a quick rebuild with Rhomondre, Bourne, Douglas, Henry, and the 2nd round WR. 

They're also going to have 75M in cap space, they might even get a WR like Higgins to put with him and let's not forget, Belichick convinced Baker's agent in '18 to have a meeting with the Pats.

I think the Patriots can still pick a quarterback in the first round, it just doesn’t need to be a top three pick.

Jacoby Brissett is a free agent option in 2024 & a solid starter who knows how to operate under Belichick.

Jacoby sounds good as a bridge QB -- but Zappe might be fine as a bridge QB.  Those of you who actually know college football (unlike me), assuming Williams goes #1, what do you think of Maye v. Daniels, and Nix or Penix as next tier?  Who is worth a high #1 pick v. spending it on a blue chip OT?

Maye is a prototypical modern QB. He also doesn't seem to be a guy that can cause some issues like Williams might. Williams has more talent so he probably goes 1, but if you told me in 10 years 1 of Williams or Maye is a bust and the other is a all pro, I'd probably peg Maye as the all pro (I think they will both succeed and have great careers, but the off field stuff with Williams is a bit concerning). Daniels is more of a runner and those guys often don't live up to the billing because they often aren't good enough throwers.  I wouldn't take Daniels where he is seemingly being projected, if he drops back to mid-1st he'd be worth the pick, but I wouldn't want him in the top 10.  I'd stay away from Penix and Nix entirely, as I don't think they will be very good.  If McCarthy falls to late 1st or early 2nd, I think he may be worth nabbing there.

Thanks for the analysis!  TP.

[Phantom255x]

I'm getting a headache thinking about all the possibilities lol.

If we can't get Maye, then I am down for trading down a few spots to get an OT (Latham, Alt or Fashanu), using an additional pick you get in the late 1st OR early 2nd to grab QB, and then maybe a 2nd/3rd rounder on WR. Or you can get a WR in the late 1st/early 2nd and either grab a QB later or sign one in FA.

I do love Jayden Daniels, but I have a feeling he's gonna be a Top-5 pick and idk... it just seems risky. But I do think a team like the Giants would pounce on him at 5 or 6. Maybe the Pats just take Daniels around 4 and then use their 2nd rounder on OT help and re-sign Bourne + get another WR in the offseason (Higgins?)

Again, I'm getting a headache 

[johnnygreen]

I'd trade Bill Belichick.
Draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
Trade for Kyler Murray.

[ozgod]

I'd trade Bill Belichick.
Draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
Trade for Kyler Murray.

Can we trade Bill for Kyler? Does Bill have a no-trade clause?

[Vermont Green]

I have not gone back and actually counted, but it seems to me that over half of the quarterbacks taken in the top five end up no better than the quarterbacks taken in the second and third rounds. It is really risky to draft quarterbacks.

I would rather see them draft offensive lineman in the first round. Some of them don’t work out either, but it is pretty rare to have a total bust. Lots of top quarterbacks end up total busts.

[Roy H.]

I have not gone back and actually counted, but it seems to me that over half of the quarterbacks taken in the top five end up no better than the quarterbacks taken in the second and third rounds. It is really risky to draft quarterbacks.

I would rather see them draft offensive lineman in the first round. Some of them don’t work out either, but it is pretty rare to have a total bust. Lots of top quarterbacks end up total busts.

My guess is that if you looked at the "hit rate" on QBs, it would be significantly higher the closer you get to the #1 pick.  That hit rate still may be relatively low, however, as you're correct that a lot of QBs end up as busts. 

[Moranis]

I have not gone back and actually counted, but it seems to me that over half of the quarterbacks taken in the top five end up no better than the quarterbacks taken in the second and third rounds. It is really risky to draft quarterbacks.

I would rather see them draft offensive lineman in the first round. Some of them don’t work out either, but it is pretty rare to have a total bust. Lots of top quarterbacks end up total busts.

My guess is that if you looked at the "hit rate" on QBs, it would be significantly higher the closer you get to the #1 pick.  That hit rate still may be relatively low, however, as you're correct that a lot of QBs end up as busts.

teams do reach at QB a lot more.  I suspect if you actually looked at pre-draft grades, the hit rate would be a lot better.  A lot of QB's go in the top ten that have late 1st or even 2nd round grades.  The position is just so much more important that teams do some silly things to try and get their guy.  ESPN right now has Daniels at the 16th best player in this draft, but there is a very good chance he is a top 5 pick (Williams is 2 and Maye is 4).  And that continues throughout the draft where teams simply reach more a QB making it much harder to determine busts than other positions. 

[JSD]

What about Russell Wilson? Things seem to have gone downhill in Denver, and he’s a quality quarterback.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/report-russell-wilson-expects-to-be-cut-by-broncos-in-march/ar-AA1macbJ