2023 CS Historic Draft Thread - Results in OP!

[Who]

Gilbert Arenas was a player that slipped that surprised me. I thought he was a late 1st to 2nd round pick. The most lethal scoring machine at PG in the draft. Ideal for today's game. Probably a top 5 scorer in the entire league.

I had trouble figuring out what type of roster to put around. Maybe others did too.

[Kernewek]

Thanks for waiting. The last pick of the round goes to Sabas himself, Big Sabonis!

That's Arvydas Sabonis, of course.

[gouki88]

Thanks for waiting. The last pick of the round goes to Sabas himself, Big Sabonis!

That's Arvydas Sabonis, of course.

Love it. He was a really good bench big in his “rookie” season - not his best counting stats, but perhaps his best impact.

[Roy H.]

Sabonis was such a great player.  It would have been awesome to see what he could have done in the NBA in his prime.

[smokeablount]

Blake's team had Chris Paul at point guard (10+ assists) and a couple capable team passing guards.

Jermaine's team had...eh, I'm just going to say it because he's not getting drafted -- Jamaal Tinsley and his 5.8 assists per game and 40% shooting at point guard. Good luck with that! At shooting guard, he had Reggie in his twilight who was never really a passer and certainly not at that age was he creating for others. Ron Artest is also a black hole on offense despite his insane abilities elsewhere. The other swing player there who could feasibly be drafted was a ball hog when he did get it. It might have been the worse ball movement team of all time!

The difference is that Blake got traded to Detroit, where he put up 24.5-7.5-5.5 on 2PT-3PT-FT splits of 52-36-75 % and led the Pistons to their 2nd best season of the past 15 years.

You talk about PG assists, but Blake isn't reliant on assists. He led that team in assists by a wide margin and essentially passed like Tinsley, whose 5.8 eviscerates Blake's starting PG, Reggie Jackson, and his 4.2 apg. Still scorching efficiently.

Blake had 8 WS on that team, Drummond had 10, and no one else had over 5. Whereas on the top Pacers team, Jermaine led the team with 9 by 0.1 over Reggie Miller, but 2 other guys had WS of 8+. There were a lot of talented guys on that team, and a lot more of the lifting was shared.

I don't like JO's chances of faring well in a similar situation. His efficiency would be way down, he was shooting 44-48% on 2PT shots on the Pacers even with defensive attention spread out. That's not going to cut it as an offensive engine.

[Roy H.]

Question for the crowd:  is there any GM who isn't completely happy with their team?  With the way the board has fallen, are there any moves that you would make differently?

Answering my own question...  I hadn't really done any real pre-planning for the draft.  I kind of stupidly assumed that Alonzo Mourning would still be there at my pick, so it was a big bummer when he wasn't.  Compounding that, I hadn't watched the first round play out; I signed in basically when it was my turn to pick.  Before the draft, I had commented to goukii that PF might be the strongest position in the draft, so of course when I'm scrambling, I take a power forward.  If I had planned it out, I might have tried to get more "value" from my first rounder.  But, truthfully, the guy I probably would have taken would have been Manu.  And, Brand at his peak is my second favorite PF in the draft, so it worked out.

Other than Mourning, the only other guy I really wanted that got sniped from me was Terry Porter.  That one bummed me out, just because I was in high school in Oregon during Blazers fever.  Drexler, Porter and a bunch of guys who haven't been drafted were such an awesome team to follow at age 14.  And Porter was a great player, somebody who could give you 20 points, 8 assists, and 40% 3PT shooting.  He was a great citizen, too.

Mookie was my second choice, and in hindsight, I'm not sure why I waited a couple rounds to draft him, because there wasn't a clear starting PG left on the board that I liked nearly as well.  That's poor strategy on my part that just happened to work out. 

I will say, there are guys I considered in the fourth round who are still on the board.  It's a deep, deep draft.  And, full disclosure:  I was skeptical of the format pre-draft, but this has been one of the most fun drafts I've been a part of.  And, because of my approach -- binkies only -- I do indeed love my team.

I've got three primary targets left for the draft overall.  We'll see if any of them make it to me.

[smokeablount]

I got 6 higher tier targets and I’d love to come away with 2 of them in the next 17 picks. Not sure that’s realistic though. Today is going to be suspenseful.

[theswitch]

Blake's team had Chris Paul at point guard (10+ assists) and a couple capable team passing guards.

Jermaine's team had...eh, I'm just going to say it because he's not getting drafted -- Jamaal Tinsley and his 5.8 assists per game and 40% shooting at point guard. Good luck with that! At shooting guard, he had Reggie in his twilight who was never really a passer and certainly not at that age was he creating for others. Ron Artest is also a black hole on offense despite his insane abilities elsewhere. The other swing player there who could feasibly be drafted was a ball hog when he did get it. It might have been the worse ball movement team of all time!

The difference is that Blake got traded to Detroit, where he put up 24.5-7.5-5.5 on 2PT-3PT-FT splits of 52-36-75 % and led the Pistons to their 2nd best season of the past 15 years.

You talk about PG assists, but Blake isn't reliant on assists. He led that team in assists by a wide margin and essentially passed like Tinsley, whose 5.8 eviscerates Blake's starting PG, Reggie Jackson, and his 4.2 apg. Still scorching efficiently.

Blake had 8 WS on that team, Drummond had 10, and no one else had over 5. Whereas on the top Pacers team, Jermaine led the team with 9 by 0.1 over Reggie Miller, but 2 other guys had WS of 8+. There were a lot of talented guys on that team, and a lot more of the lifting was shared.

I don't like JO's chances of faring well in a similar situation. His efficiency would be way down, he was shooting 44-48% on 2PT shots on the Pacers even with defensive attention spread out. That's not going to cut it as an offensive engine.

This is actually somewhat of my point. Chris Paul was there in LAC until 2017. Blake was 50%+ from the field during that time. Chris Paul doesn't play in 2017-2018 and for the first 33 games of the season, Blake's FG percentage plummets to 44%. He starts taking more outside shots at a just an okay percentage because he wasn't great to begin with. Then he goes to Detroit where he has one nice season but his field goal percentage stays down because of he feels forced into long shots without being spoon fed threes. His WS/48 go from .18-ish every year with the Clippers to .113-.147.

And yeah -- he leads them to a better than normal year. Because he's really freaking good! I'm not judging Blake. I'm just saying JO isn't very far off offensively. If you put JO on the Clippers, he would have had Blake's efficiency. Once you took Blake away from CP3, his shot selection changed, his advanced metrics went down, his efficiency went down. I'm saying both players are in that same tier.

[smokeablount]

Blake's team had Chris Paul at point guard (10+ assists) and a couple capable team passing guards.

Jermaine's team had...eh, I'm just going to say it because he's not getting drafted -- Jamaal Tinsley and his 5.8 assists per game and 40% shooting at point guard. Good luck with that! At shooting guard, he had Reggie in his twilight who was never really a passer and certainly not at that age was he creating for others. Ron Artest is also a black hole on offense despite his insane abilities elsewhere. The other swing player there who could feasibly be drafted was a ball hog when he did get it. It might have been the worse ball movement team of all time!

The difference is that Blake got traded to Detroit, where he put up 24.5-7.5-5.5 on 2PT-3PT-FT splits of 52-36-75 % and led the Pistons to their 2nd best season of the past 15 years.

You talk about PG assists, but Blake isn't reliant on assists. He led that team in assists by a wide margin and essentially passed like Tinsley, whose 5.8 eviscerates Blake's starting PG, Reggie Jackson, and his 4.2 apg. Still scorching efficiently.

Blake had 8 WS on that team, Drummond had 10, and no one else had over 5. Whereas on the top Pacers team, Jermaine led the team with 9 by 0.1 over Reggie Miller, but 2 other guys had WS of 8+. There were a lot of talented guys on that team, and a lot more of the lifting was shared.

I don't like JO's chances of faring well in a similar situation. His efficiency would be way down, he was shooting 44-48% on 2PT shots on the Pacers even with defensive attention spread out. That's not going to cut it as an offensive engine.

This is actually somewhat of my point. Chris Paul was there in LAC until 2017. Blake was 50%+ from the field during that time. Chris Paul doesn't play in 2017-2018 and for the first 33 games of the season, Blake's FG percentage plummets to 44%. He starts taking more outside shots at a just an okay percentage because he wasn't great to begin with. Then he goes to Detroit where he has one nice season but his field goal percentage stays down because of he feels forced into long shots without being spoon fed threes. His WS/48 go from .18-ish every year with the Clippers to .113-.147.

And yeah -- he leads them to a better than normal year. Because he's really freaking good! I'm not judging Blake. I'm just saying JO isn't very far off offensively. If you put JO on the Clippers, he would have had Blake's efficiency. Once you took Blake away from CP3, his shot selection changed, his advanced metrics went down, his efficiency went down. I'm saying both players are in that same tier.

Yeah, just don’t agree.

JOs WS/48 with Indy, best to worst:
.177, .155, .131, .118, .117, .116, .113, .091

It drop off really fast. OWS even moreso:
5.7, 2.7, 2.3, 1.7, etc. Blake got 5.1 his one full season if Detroit, well above all but JOs fluke year. Also, it’s way higher in LAC.

His WS/48 in Det was .147, but that’s output divided by 42 wins vs the mid-high 50s for JO in his best year, when JO had more talented teammates and he didn’t have to get others involved, which he can’t do.

When Blake had talented teammates his teams won, and he had 4 WS/48 years above .183, 2 above .196.

Put it this way- I’ve seen Gasol and Nance both on several of the same top 100 player lists. Would you say they’re in the same tier?

[smokeablount]

Reading that back, it sounded overly harsh. To be clear, I had JO as a 5th round talent. I love him in the 7th. I just don’t have him in Blake’s tier, who I had as a 3rd round talent and was pumped to get in the 4th.

EDIT - I’ll be on the road to a bachelor party during the draft today, so if we don’t get started early or move quickly I may be making my picks according to the scheduled time. I may be able to delay leaving a bit to make pick #8 if things move quickly, but #9 will be a Highway pullover.

[RPGenerate]

Really happy I got Jo Jo White (rest in peace). Dude is one of the best playoff pgs in the draft. Over his career, he averaged 22 points and 6 assists. He slotted in perfectly next to other superstars like Hondo and Dave Cowens.

[RPGenerate]

Is there a reason why Rip Hamilton is a different color then everyone else on the first page?

[smokeablount]

Really happy I got Jo Jo White (rest in peace). Dude is one of the best playoff pgs in the draft. Over his career, he averaged 22 points and 6 assists. He slotted in perfectly next to other superstars like Hondo and Dave Cowens.

I met JoJo White, got a photo and an autograph. I quickly noticed that I was wearing a purple polo that day, and I was despondent.

I wasn’t sure how to place JoJo, and it’s my first draft so I just kind of sat back and kept an eye on him. Playoff legend, in his prime pre-merger but still very good after. Good stats with impact metrics that don’t quite keep up, but he played well with others and was clutch. I think he’s great value in the 7th.

I thought the picks yesterday were excellent across the board.

[Who]

I am having a look at the PF position in this league:

So we got three tall strong post players in Sheed, Aldridge and JO with two of them able to step out all the way to three point line and make jump-shots.

We got two power based big power forwards in Webber and Kemp. Both guys can stretch out to the three point line. Kemp a low volume jump-shooter. Webber a more willing shooter and a playmaking big man. The first so far.

We have Mo Lucas. A two way physical powerhouse. Good midrange shooter. Low post threat. Roughhouse type of defender & rebounder. [Edit: I should put Mo Lucas up alongside Webber and Kemp, most similar player type].

We got Elton Brand who is a short muscular power based PF with a PnP game. We got Amare Stoudemire who is more of a face up big than a post up big with extraordinary physical talent and a high skill level scoring wise. Amare would shoot a few 3s as well. Not sure about Brand. Maybe a low volume stand still 3 point shooter.

Detlef Schrempf who is more of a combo forward. A SF/PF. He has the best perimeter game in terms of ball-handling, passing, shooting. Chris Bosh is a bit more lightweight physically as well compared to the rest. Closer to Schrempf than the rest? Maybe. Amare the next closest the other way. Bosh with a PnP, spot up shooter, face up explosive first step offensive game. Similar to Amare albeit not as devastating.

Edit: I missed Blake Griffin. Depends a bit on which version is selected. The LAC version who is more similar to Amare. More ball-handling and passing, less shooting. Or the DET version who is more like a more athletic physically powerful Detlef Schrempf.

It is an interesting mix of different type of skill-sets. Quite physical group. Lot of size. Three tall guys who have the body of a center (JO, Sheed, Aldridge). 3 more physical powerhouses (Lucas, Webber, Kemp). So that is half the league with big powerful PFs. Even Amare and Bosh have quite a bit of size. Brand smaller but very powerful and great length to overcome lack of height.

That level of physicality at the PF spot will go a long way to deciding the style of play in this CB fantast league. A more power based league similar to 2010 than the finesse based league of 2023. Schrempf (edit: and maybe Blake) is the only 2023 style PF by my judgement.

The PF spot is even bigger and more powerful than I expected. Lot of size. Lot of physicality. Skilled size. 

[Who]

I am having a look at the PF position in this league:

So we got three tall strong post players in Sheed, Aldridge and JO with two of them able to step out all the way to three point line and make jump-shots.

We got two power based big power forwards in Webber and Kemp. Both guys can stretch out to the three point line. Kemp a low volume jump-shooter. Webber a more willing shooter and a playmaking big man. The first so far.

We have Mo Lucas. A two way physical powerhouse. Good midrange shooter. Low post threat. Roughhouse type of defender & rebounder. [Edit: I should put Mo Lucas up alongside Webber and Kemp, most similar player type].

We got Elton Brand who is a short muscular power based PF with a PnP game. We got Amare Stoudemire who is more of a face up big than a post up big with extraordinary physical talent and a high skill level scoring wise. Amare would shoot a few 3s as well. Not sure about Brand. Maybe a low volume stand still 3 point shooter.

Detlef Schrempf who is more of a combo forward. A SF/PF. He has the best perimeter game in terms of ball-handling, passing, shooting. Chris Bosh is a bit more lightweight physically as well compared to the rest. Closer to Schrempf than the rest? Maybe. Amare the next closest the other way. Bosh with a PnP, spot up shooter, face up explosive first step offensive game. Similar to Amare albeit not as devastating.

Edit: I missed Blake Griffin. Depends a bit on which version is selected. The LAC version who is more similar to Amare. More ball-handling and passing, less shooting. Or the DET version who is more like a more athletic physically powerful Detlef Schrempf.

It is an interesting mix of different type of skill-sets. Quite physical group. Lot of size. Three tall guys who have the body of a center (JO, Sheed, Aldridge). 3 more physical powerhouses (Lucas, Webber, Kemp). So that is half the league with big powerful PFs. Even Amare and Bosh have quite a bit of size. Brand smaller but very powerful and great length to overcome lack of height.

That level of physicality at the PF spot will go a long way to deciding the style of play in this CB fantast league. A more power based league similar to 2010 than the finesse based league of 2023. Schrempf (edit: and maybe Blake) is the only 2023 style PF by my judgement.

Also interesting to look at the defensive skill-set.

Sheed a high level interior & perimeter defender.
Kemp an above average interior & perimeter defender.
JO high level interior defender and good perimeter defender.

Webber & Brand good interior defender but dodgy perimeter defenders. Griffin a dodgy interior defender and okay perimeter defender. Detlef weak interior defender but good perimeter defender. Aldridge above averager interior defender and okay perimeter defender. Amare dodgy interior & perimeter defender. Bosh okay interior & good perimeter defender.

Not sure what to say about Mo Lucas as a perimeter defender. He defended face up bigs well in the late 70s when he was still athletic so I suppose I would say he is a strong interior defender & good perimeter defender.

Sheed the only high level defender on both interior and perimeter. JO, Kemp and Lucas look the next best defensive PFs to me. They are the top 3rd in terms of defense. Then there is some mix of good/bad in the middle 3rd with Webber, Brand, Bosh, Aldridge. Then Amare, Blake, Detlef in the bottom 3rd.