2023 CS Historic Draft Thread - Results in OP!

[Moranis]

Is Sheed the 3rd best PF in the league?

This is considering Pau at center and Amare at PF for that Nets team. I have C Webb #1 Kemp #2 Sheed #3. Tempted by LMA and Blake to round out the top 5.

I'm going woth Pau at PF, but why would Sheed, Aldridge, or Blake be ahead or Amar'e?

Why would Amare be ahead of Sheed or Blake? His D is awful, he is a black hole.

Also, you aren’t inheriting Steve Nash, your PG is Mo Cheeks.

The NYK caliber Amare you’re actually ending up with isn’t better than prime Sheed or Blake, IMO.

The numbers, guessing at peak seasons:

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=griffbl01&p1yrfrom=2014&p1yrto=2014&player_id2=stoudam01&p2yrfrom=2008&p2yrto=2008&player_id3=brandel01&p3yrfrom=2006&p3yrto=2006&player_id4=wallara01&p4yrfrom=2001&p4yrto=2001

I struggled with rating Amare/Marion because of Nash.

Marion went to Miami mid season when he was traded, and his impact metrics were roughly 1/3 of what they were in PHX.

Amare experienced a similar but less pronounced drop off with the Knicks. I just don’t think it’s viable to project them as the same guys without Nash.

Especially when we’re critiquing whether multiple high usage guys can co-exist, when, if they can pass and run a good offense it should just increase efficiency.

Or whether guys from the 70s could shoot 3’s, or guys from the 90’s could shoot high volume.

Don’t see how we split hairs on those but avoid the teammate topic.

It's pretty subjective.  There's definitely a Steve Nash impact, particularly in Amare's FG%.  But, even before Nash you could tell he was going to be an excellent scorer; he averaged 21/9 the year before Nash got there.

I don't know how you parse it all out.  I just know that of those guys, I'm taking Brand.

21/9 as a 2nd year big man that came straight from high school.

Also, I don't get the winning arguments with him as the Knicks were 29-53 the year before Amar'e and then went to 42-40 by basically just adding Amar'e (they did bring in Melo at the deadline but were a .500 team after adding him).  Amar'e then got hurt for the 3rd time and was never the same. While the Suns went from 54 wins and the WCF to a 40 win team and out of the playoffs when Amar'e left. Nash obviously played a factor, but it isn't like him leaving hurt the Mavs as they went from 52 wins and a 1st round loss with Nash, to a 58 win 2nd round team before winning 60 and making the Finals (which they followed up with a 67 win season) in the seasons directly after losing Nash.

Early Amar'e also was a solid shot blocker and generated around a steal a game.  I'll probably take 08 when Amar'e had 14.6 winshares and a ws/48 of 0.262.  25 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 1.5 apg, and just 2.2 tpg and led the league with a TS% of 65.6.  That year, Amar'e shot 48.8% from 16 feet out to 3 and was 53% from 10-16 feet. Collectively that was around 30% of his total shots. He was also over 80% from the line.  Amar'e would have easily extended that range out to 3 and would have been very effective at doing so, though not a high volume guy.

[Who]

Is Sheed the 3rd best PF in the league?

This is considering Pau at center and Amare at PF for that Nets team. I have C Webb #1 Kemp #2 Sheed #3. Tempted by LMA and Blake to round out the top 5.

I would have Brand top 5 instead of LMA. The order, besides Webber at #1, is hard to determine

I have Brand 6th. Next man up.

I put LMA above Brand because (1) I like LMA's jump-shot more than Brand's (2) at 7 feet, and at a later point in his career, LMA became a better low post scorer and more of a matchup problem at 6-11 than Brand at 6-7 was. I consider them somewhat similar as a defender & rebounder. Brand got better at defense later in his career but at his prime I thought he was similar to LMA on defense in his prime.

[Who]

Is Sheed the 3rd best PF in the league?

This is considering Pau at center and Amare at PF for that Nets team. I have C Webb #1 Kemp #2 Sheed #3. Tempted by LMA and Blake to round out the top 5.

I'm going woth Pau at PF, but why would Sheed, Aldridge, or Blake be ahead or Amar'e?

Why would Amare be ahead of Sheed or Blake? His D is awful, he is a black hole.

Also, you aren’t inheriting Steve Nash, your PG is Mo Cheeks.

The NYK caliber Amare you’re actually ending up with isn’t better than prime Sheed or Blake, IMO.

Yeah, it was Amare's defense that bothered me. He wasn't just a middling or even dodgy defender. He is one of the weakest defensive PFs in this draft. His team defense really bothers me. Just low BBIQ low awareness frequently not making rotations on time and giving up easy baskets.

Amare was a fantastic scorer but the rest of his game was below average (passing, rebounding, defense) with his team defense being among the worst in the league at PF.

I'm like Barkley. I get annoyed when I see what Amare contributes in terms of rebounding and defense when he has all those physical gifts. He could have been all-league defender & league leading rebounder with that size & athleticism if he put his mind to task. Never did though.

Is Sheed the 3rd best PF in the league?

This is considering Pau at center and Amare at PF for that Nets team. I have C Webb #1 Kemp #2 Sheed #3. Tempted by LMA and Blake to round out the top 5.

You have Amare as a PF but don't have him in your top 5.  By what standard are you judging?  Why would Sheed be ahead of him?

Defense. The team game. Sheed is the best defensive PF in the draft by my estimation. Amare the opposite.

Not as prolific a scorer but a threat from all over the court (as is Amare) which separates Sheed from some other PFs in terms of his scoring / shot-making versatility. And thus his ability to fit in and maximize teammates around him.

[theswitch]

I'm shocked that Bosh isn't in this conversation. Pau was my favorite power forward but if he's a center that's fine. I'd rather have Bosh in the modern game than Kemp. Or Blake Griffin. Probably above LMA. A slot below Brand and/or Sheed. That's where I'm at, at least.

I'd also say Rasheed is the second best defensive power forward in this draft

[Who]

Shawn Marion is an interesting one in terms of production. I see him as having three issues (1) SF vs PF (2) uptempo offense vs halfcourt (3) Nash.

Marion's production took a nose dive in Miami when they tried to move him back to SF vs PF. It did the same in Toronto after he was traded there. Then they played Marion at PF for a bit next to Bosh at center and his production jumped up a lot. I forget his exact numbers. Something like 17ppg 11-12rpg vs the 13ppg 8rpg he was averaging at SF in Miami & Toronto. However, Toronto wanted to start that #1 pick seven footer who shot 3s so Marion wasn't allowed to continue at PF despite it being in the best interests of the team.

Uptempo vs halfcourt matters a lot for Marion. He doesn't have a good halfcourt offensive game. His jump-shot is sketchy. He pumps up his scoring efficiency with those easy transition hoops & drives. Without those easier opportunities, his scoring efficiency goes from very good to average.

You can say a similar thing about the Nash effect. The pump up in scoring efficiency but also volume. He was more a 16-17ppg without Nash and a 20-21ppg with Nash. Nash just got him a few extra easy scoring opportunities each night. Without Nash, Marion wasn't able to maintain that.

Marion was more prolific a scorer at SF earlier in his career prior to Nash but he didn't have efficiency. He had the same problems with halfcourt vs uptempo scoring. And he wouldn't have been getting that many shot attempts on a better offensive ball club either.

[Donoghus]

Shawn Marion is an interesting one in terms of production. I see him as having three issues (1) SF vs PF (2) uptempo offense vs halfcourt (3) Nash.

Marion's production took a nose dive in Miami when they tried to move him back to SF vs PF. It did the same in Toronto after he was traded there. Then they played Marion at PF for a bit next to Bosh at center and his production jumped up a lot. I forget his exact numbers. Something like 17ppg 11-12rpg vs the 13ppg 8rpg he was averaging at SF in Miami & Toronto. However, Toronto wanted to start that #1 pick seven footer who shot 3s so Marion wasn't allowed to continue at PF despite it being in the best interests of the team.

Uptempo vs halfcourt matters a lot for Marion. He doesn't have a good halfcourt offensive game. His jump-shot is sketchy. He pumps up his scoring efficiency with those easy transition hoops & drives. Without those easier opportunities, his scoring efficiency goes from very good to average.

You can say a similar thing about the Nash effect. The pump up in scoring efficiency but also volume. He was more a 16-17ppg without Nash and a 20-21ppg with Nash. Nash just got him a few extra easy scoring opportunities each night. Without Nash, Marion wasn't able to maintain that.

Marion was more prolific a scorer at SF earlier in his career prior to Nash but he didn't have efficiency. He had the same problems with halfcourt vs uptempo scoring. And he wouldn't have been getting that many shot attempts on a better offensive ball club either.

Luckily, he's got Price & Mitch helping him out in this league.

[Who]

I thought Amare was less reliant on Nash than Marion. Amare had a much more refined offensive game. He was a legit 25ppg threat with or without Nash and on strong efficiency with or without Nash. Although Nash he went from strong scoring efficiency to freaky levels of scoring efficiency.

I don't see the same dependance there. Amare was getting some MVP love early on his first year in NY. I thought that was a little over the top but he was having a great season & it does show how well he was playing without Nash.

I just looked it up. Amare fell out of MVP voting but finished tied 6th with Dirk in All-NBA voting and both were the first names down on 2nd team All-NBA that first year in NYC.

[Who]

Shawn Marion is an interesting one in terms of production. I see him as having three issues (1) SF vs PF (2) uptempo offense vs halfcourt (3) Nash.

Marion's production took a nose dive in Miami when they tried to move him back to SF vs PF. It did the same in Toronto after he was traded there. Then they played Marion at PF for a bit next to Bosh at center and his production jumped up a lot. I forget his exact numbers. Something like 17ppg 11-12rpg vs the 13ppg 8rpg he was averaging at SF in Miami & Toronto. However, Toronto wanted to start that #1 pick seven footer who shot 3s so Marion wasn't allowed to continue at PF despite it being in the best interests of the team.

Uptempo vs halfcourt matters a lot for Marion. He doesn't have a good halfcourt offensive game. His jump-shot is sketchy. He pumps up his scoring efficiency with those easy transition hoops & drives. Without those easier opportunities, his scoring efficiency goes from very good to average.

You can say a similar thing about the Nash effect. The pump up in scoring efficiency but also volume. He was more a 16-17ppg without Nash and a 20-21ppg with Nash. Nash just got him a few extra easy scoring opportunities each night. Without Nash, Marion wasn't able to maintain that.

Marion was more prolific a scorer at SF earlier in his career prior to Nash but he didn't have efficiency. He had the same problems with halfcourt vs uptempo scoring. And he wouldn't have been getting that many shot attempts on a better offensive ball club either.

Luckily, he's got Price & Mitch helping him out in this league.

Mark Price is as good of a replacement as anyone you could have gotten to replace Nash.

Price's impact on team offensive efficiency with or without him are quite similar to Nash's. He had a huge impact on that Cavs team. Not just with his own scoring efficiency but through his passing. Their transition game got so much better. His dribble penetration and playmaking created easier shots for teammates. And of course teams were terrified of his shooting so his gravity was great and would be even greater in today's 3 point heavy league.

I also like Vlade. He always has a good impact in helping his teammates. Numerous teammates of his have had their best seasons playing next to him. Webber in Sacramento. Rice in Charlotte. A few others in LAL. Vlade will help get Marion some easy hoops too.

[Kernewek]

Is Sheed the 3rd best PF in the league?

This is considering Pau at center and Amare at PF for that Nets team. I have C Webb #1 Kemp #2 Sheed #3. Tempted by LMA and Blake to round out the top 5.

I'm going woth Pau at PF, but why would Sheed, Aldridge, or Blake be ahead or Amar'e?

Why would Amare be ahead of Sheed or Blake? His D is awful, he is a black hole.

Also, you aren’t inheriting Steve Nash, your PG is Mo Cheeks.

The NYK caliber Amare you’re actually ending up with isn’t better than prime Sheed or Blake, IMO.

The numbers, guessing at peak seasons:

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=griffbl01&p1yrfrom=2014&p1yrto=2014&player_id2=stoudam01&p2yrfrom=2008&p2yrto=2008&player_id3=brandel01&p3yrfrom=2006&p3yrto=2006&player_id4=wallara01&p4yrfrom=2001&p4yrto=2001

I struggled with rating Amare/Marion because of Nash.

Marion went to Miami mid season when he was traded, and his impact metrics were roughly 1/3 of what they were in PHX.

Amare experienced a similar but less pronounced drop off with the Knicks. I just don’t think it’s viable to project them as the same guys without Nash.

Especially when we’re critiquing whether multiple high usage guys can co-exist, when, if they can pass and run a good offense it should just increase efficiency.

Or whether guys from the 70s could shoot 3’s, or guys from the 90’s could shoot high volume.

Don’t see how we split hairs on those but avoid the teammate topic.

It's pretty subjective.  There's definitely a Steve Nash impact, particularly in Amare's FG%.  But, even before Nash you could tell he was going to be an excellent scorer; he averaged 21/9 the year before Nash got there.

I don't know how you parse it all out.  I just know that of those guys, I'm taking Brand.

21/9 as a 2nd year big man that came straight from high school.

Also, I don't get the winning arguments with him as the Knicks were 29-53 the year before Amar'e and then went to 42-40 by basically just adding Amar'e (they did bring in Melo at the deadline but were a .500 team after adding him).

This is also interesting because a big part of the reason the Knicks started to suck after the Anthony trade was, of course, the fact that a lot of the guys they sent out to get Carmelo were very good. But yes, Amar'e did drag them all the way to a .500 record and, prior to his knee injury, it really looked like he could be the face of a newly relevant NYK team. The hype was real.


(but, in terms of winning... if we're comparing him to my boy Roscoe, who turned the Pistons from a pretty good team to a team that immediately walked over every team they faced in the regular season and the playoffs, including the very impressive ShaKobe Lakers - although weirdly they went to 7 against the Nets in the second round... I don't know that the tangible impact of a single player moving teams argument is in STAT's favour).

[Kernewek]

I'm shocked that Bosh isn't in this conversation. Pau was my favorite power forward but if he's a center that's fine. I'd rather have Bosh in the modern game than Kemp. Or Blake Griffin. Probably above LMA. A slot below Brand and/or Sheed. That's where I'm at, at least.

I'd also say Rasheed is the second best defensive power forward in this draft

Yeah I think we're probably underrating Bosh in this discussion thus far, but to some degree I think it's a result of his fairly understated game - so the conversation thus far reflects that.

[theswitch]

One other thought on Amare -- is his best position even power forward? The Knicks dynamic we are discussing -- that year another player likely to be drafted at some point hadn't shown up yet, so it was mostly Melo - Gallo - Amare as a frontline. A defensive disaster, but a D'Antoni dream. Amare flourished offensively in that environment because Gallo and Melo gave him so much spacing to use his strength and quickness to destroy other, slower centers. Then the other guy showed up, forced him to power forward. He was still good, but not as good. Then he got hurt and his career was effectively over.

Similarly, in Phoenix -- he was at his best playing alongside guys like Hill and Marion, letting him play the 5. He's a terrible defender either way, so you might as well play him at center where he's more unguardable because he's still strong enough to bang with them but his quickness and speed advantage is next level.

So maybe he's being miscategorized a bit here. Maybe his best peaks were in run-and-gun center situations rather than as a power forward. That clashes a bit with Pau but is one way to play it.

[theswitch]

I'm shocked that Bosh isn't in this conversation. Pau was my favorite power forward but if he's a center that's fine. I'd rather have Bosh in the modern game than Kemp. Or Blake Griffin. Probably above LMA. A slot below Brand and/or Sheed. That's where I'm at, at least.

I'd also say Rasheed is the second best defensive power forward in this draft

Yeah I think we're probably underrating Bosh in this discussion thus far, but to some degree I think it's a result of his fairly understated game - so the conversation thus far reflects that.

Understated doesn't mean he has to be rated lowly! I actually have similar feelings about Bosh as I just posted with Amare. He was the guy as a center in Toronto alongside another Italian guy (similar to Amare!). He was at his best in Miami when he was a center with Lebron, Wade, and another wing who will probably be drafted at some point.

Bosh is a power forward perhaps in this league, but his best position practically is center. I'd probably make that argument for most of these other guys (Brand, Webber, maybe even Aldridge). By that definition maybe Rasheed is the actual best modern day power forward here.

[Roy H.]

Bosh is a power forward perhaps in this league, but his best position practically is center. I'd probably make that argument for most of these other guys (Brand, Webber, maybe even Aldridge). By that definition maybe Rasheed is the actual best modern day power forward here.

We're playing under modern rules, but does that mean teams will play a modern style?  Bosh can obviously play center against many modern teams, but would he survive against big, beefy centers who can score and rebound? 

My guess is that most successful teams on here are going to personnel that can play in a variety of ways, both power and small ball.

[Who]

(but, in terms of winning... if we're comparing him to my boy Roscoe, who turned the Pistons from a pretty good team to a team that immediately walked over every team they faced in the regular season and the playoffs, including the very impressive ShaKobe Lakers - although weirdly they went to 7 against the Nets in the second round... I don't know that the tangible impact of a single player moving teams argument is in STAT's favour).

I was reading this stats based analysis article yesterday talking about the 10 best defensive teams of All-Time. Obviously that 2004 DET team was talked about.

The writer noted that their regular season wasn't as strong as some of the other top defensive teams but their playoff performance out-did everyone. Then he also noted the difference between the Pistons in the regular season before Rasheed and post Rasheed.

He had the Pistons with a defensive efficiency score of 16.4 points below league average after Sheed was acquired in February or whatever it was. That is incredible.

His numbers are a little different than the standard def eff numbers but DET was 7.5 points per 100 poss below league average on the regular season. So that gives some barometer to where they were pre-Sheed vs post-Sheed.

That 2004 Pistons team also posted the best playoff defensive numbers he has ever seen. They held the Lakers to 9.4 points per 100 below their season averages in the Finals. Defensive domination.


Interestingly, that 2004 Nets team was on the honourable mentions list. As was the Pacers of the ECF. And the Spurs out West. All in the 2004.

I love that 2004 Nets vs Pistons series because it is a great example of the power of Jason Kidd. That Pistons defense could hone in and destroy scorers but they struggled to do much with a faciliator like Kidd. Facilitators much more difficult to slow down than scorers.


Also mentioned my guy Sikma and his 1982 Sonics on the honourable mentions lists. He had them 15th best defense All-Time. I had never seen that team talked that way before. I knew they had a big season that year and I knew some of the reasons for that but I had not understood their defense was so strong.

https://matthewmurphy1.wordpress.com/2020/06/09/the-top-nba-defenses-all-time/

And mentioned that the original Bad Boy Pistons of the late 80s early 90s were also a team whose defense tended to be even better in the post-season than the regular season.

He tries to put more playoff numbers into his various team and player rankings. Interesting methods.

[smokeablount]

Shawn Marion is an interesting one in terms of production. I see him as having three issues (1) SF vs PF (2) uptempo offense vs halfcourt (3) Nash.

Marion's production took a nose dive in Miami when they tried to move him back to SF vs PF. It did the same in Toronto after he was traded there. Then they played Marion at PF for a bit next to Bosh at center and his production jumped up a lot. I forget his exact numbers. Something like 17ppg 11-12rpg vs the 13ppg 8rpg he was averaging at SF in Miami & Toronto. However, Toronto wanted to start that #1 pick seven footer who shot 3s so Marion wasn't allowed to continue at PF despite it being in the best interests of the team.

Uptempo vs halfcourt matters a lot for Marion. He doesn't have a good halfcourt offensive game. His jump-shot is sketchy. He pumps up his scoring efficiency with those easy transition hoops & drives. Without those easier opportunities, his scoring efficiency goes from very good to average.

You can say a similar thing about the Nash effect. The pump up in scoring efficiency but also volume. He was more a 16-17ppg without Nash and a 20-21ppg with Nash. Nash just got him a few extra easy scoring opportunities each night. Without Nash, Marion wasn't able to maintain that.

Marion was more prolific a scorer at SF earlier in his career prior to Nash but he didn't have efficiency. He had the same problems with halfcourt vs uptempo scoring. And he wouldn't have been getting that many shot attempts on a better offensive ball club either.

Luckily, he's got Price & Mitch helping him out in this league.

This is a huge point. Having Price makes me feel confident I’d be getting very close to 7 seconds or less Marion, who is a monster.