Fire Joe! ... or critique Joe ... or defend Joe... or worry about Joe's coaching

[Roy H.]

Also, there’s got to be a plan B when the threes aren’t falling. Even last night, we were generally getting good looks off, but simply not making them. If your entire philosophy is that they’re eventually going to go in so keep shooting, you’re going to lose alot of games that way, because they’re not always going to go in.

That's my issue.  For instance:

Boston finished the season 38-2 when it hit at least 40% of its 3-pointers and 30-32 when it didn’t.

If we're not shooting above league average (and our own average), we're a below .500 team.  And, we didn't hit that mark in 62 out of 102 games this year.

[boscel33]

Move on from Brad and Joe.

I'm moving Zarren up and opening up a coaching search, although my main guys are Frank Vogel and Monty Williams.

[Kuberski33]

Move on from Brad and Joe.

I'm moving Zarren up and opening up a coaching search, although my main guys are Frank Vogel and Monty Williams.

Why would you move on from Brad? He provided the necessary pieces. Gallinari got hurt and then Joe didn't use the tools available to him.  Maybe you can fault Brad for entrusting Joe with coaching the team but things didn't go south till they gave Joe the permanent job.

[Kuberski33]

"It was the issue," Brogdon said. "This was a team last year that prided themselves on defense. Defense was their calling card. And then this year, offense was our calling card, and I don’t think you win championships with the better offense than you have defense."

And Brogdon was doodoo on both ends this series. Should have had the awareness to sit his butt down

Can't understate Brogdon's role in last night's debacle. Everything went south when he came in and they never recovered.

[Kernewek]

Al just abominable all night, yet he got 34 minutes to Timelord's 14 minutes.

And that's all on Joe's fascination with the three ball offense and refusal to play Timelord big minutes because he provides less spacing.

For the love of God, just move on from this guy.

I don’t like the 3 ball either, but you do realize that this is how Brad wants the team to play, right?

Then why did we attempt significantly fewer under both Brad and Ime?

You know, I wonder about this. At first I thought it might be a pace thing - as in people evaluating raw numbers without taking into account shot opportunities - but since 2018, more or less, we've actually played slower and slower, per B/R, and we were squarely in the middle of the pack when it came to shots per game.

But - and this is also important for the discussion - last year, under Udoka, we shot 37.1 threes per game at a 35.5% clip (approximately 39.5ppg of our offense). This season we shot 42.1 at a 37.7% clip, good for sixth in the league and 47.6ppg of our offense.

So Mazza's offense definitely had us shooting more threes, but we also made more threes. food for thought.

I think the improvement was interesting, but we lost sight of balance in offence. We saw that when we would be dominating inside (Philly series jumps to mind) yet seemed to avoid the strong areas due to Joe’s tenets. The commitment / stubbornness in the face of contrary evidence is what really bothered me, and I think it was taken to a new level under Joe.

I think the offence needs reorientation. But I also think that is a product of the roster. We lack a lot of dribble penetration from our guards (the kind of quickness that other teams have), and we went away from high post playmaking.

I think the stats would be a much different read between pre All Star and post All Star. Our playoff play style is a continuation of the post All Star. We are much less accurate shooting 3s post All Star.

I think that correlates with Joe becoming the genuine head coach, rather than the interim.

The good news is that this is something we can check, and we don't have to make assumptions (which in this case, turn out to be incorrect).

Before the All Star break, the Celtics shot 37.5% from deep. After the All Star break, the Celtics shot 37.4% from deep.


Now, if we want to shift the goalposts and say "well we have 60 games before the ASB and only 22 games after so surely we would have gotten worse something something blither blather", we can include the post-season in our post ASB (even though this was not part of the original argument) and... after the all star break and including the post-season...


the Celtics shot 37.28 from deep. so one-quarter of one percent worse. That's not 'much less accurate' in any universe I'm familiar with.

That said, these maths aren't adding up - so if someone wants to double check me I'd welcome it.

Per BBR's game log page, the Celtics shot 37.54% from the regular season overall - as in, if you export the regular season games and take the average, you get 37.54%
But the season totals page has it at 37.7%

I think the quantity versus quality of threes is the bigger issue, as well as the “keep shooting and they’ll eventually go in” single-mindedness.

Early in the year, the high volume of threes was more tolerable, because they were paired with excellent ball and player movement. So the quality of our threes was much better, particularly coming off the pass or inside/out after breaking down the defense. After the hot streak ended, we seemingly stopped moving the ball and moving off the ball, and we relied more on contested threes and/or threes off the dribble, which we’re seemingly much less efficient at.

Also, there’s got to be a plan B when the threes aren’t falling. Even last night, we were generally getting good looks off, but simply not making them. If your entire philosophy is that they’re eventually going to go in so keep shooting, you’re going to lose alot of games that way, because they’re not always going to go in.

Yeah, the ball and player movement thing is interesting, too - we would expect to see more corner threes during the first half of the season and fewer as we stopped passing as much, but it's not as drastic as I would have thought (9.8 corner threes after the break vs 10.1 before), but  the big drop off before and after the all star break in terms of open looks on a player level comes from Brown, Brogdon, and Smart.


I don't really enjoy the 3's or nothing approach to the game - it's very reminiscent of the Harden Rockets and generally unfun basketball teams to watch, but given the roster Brad put together, I'm not sure there's a better offensive angle to be put together by a depleted coaching staff lead by a rookie HC over the last two months of the regular season.

Which is, I suppose, how we wind up in this thread in the first place

[angryguy77]

Move on from Brad and Joe.

I'm moving Zarren up and opening up a coaching search, although my main guys are Frank Vogel and Monty Williams.

Why would you move on from Brad? He provided the necessary pieces. Gallinari got hurt and then Joe didn't use the tools available to him.  Maybe you can fault Brad for entrusting Joe with coaching the team but things didn't go south till they gave Joe the permanent job.

Unless Brad was forced by Wyc, he should take the fall for putting Joe in that position and then making him HC before proving himself.

Fire Joe and Brad.
Trade Brown, smart and let AL walk.

We need changes in leadership and in the DNA of this team. No more of the "They're young" excuse. Either some changes are made or Tatum's prime is wasted and he'll ask for trade at some point.

[CelticSooner]

I’m getting depressed the more I think about this guy coming back next year. This Harden Rockets wannabe team was not fun to watch. The team is telling you the fit sucks, please listen to them.

[Kuberski33]

Move on from Brad and Joe.

I'm moving Zarren up and opening up a coaching search, although my main guys are Frank Vogel and Monty Williams.

Why would you move on from Brad? He provided the necessary pieces. Gallinari got hurt and then Joe didn't use the tools available to him.  Maybe you can fault Brad for entrusting Joe with coaching the team but things didn't go south till they gave Joe the permanent job.

Unless Brad was forced by Wyc, he should take the fall for putting Joe in that position and then making him HC before proving himself.

Fire Joe and Brad.
Trade Brown, smart and let AL walk.

We need changes in leadership and in the DNA of this team. No more of the "They're young" excuse. Either some changes are made or Tatum's prime is wasted and he'll ask for trade at some point.

Considering some of the other GM's in the league, I'm not sure hiring Joe and then giving him the full time job is a fireable offense. I think at the time he was given the full time job, the team was playing really well and no one seemed to object.

Also don't think blowing it up is the answer.  The team they come back with could be a lot worse than the current one. I do think they need a well placed tweak or two - and I can see changing out the coach if you're sick of 3 pt based offense and everything falling apart when the 3's aren't going in. Also their defensive decline vs last season.

In general the team is too soft unless they're totally locked in and that only seems to happen when the 3's are going in. I think that needs to be addressed.

[scaryjerry]

fIrE jOe!

Team was 5 wins from a title, last year they were 2 games from a title.

Team collapsed in the same exact ways they did last year.

But yeah, let’s blame the 34 year old who was put in charge.

If anything blame the morons that hired him.

[Roy H.]

"It was the issue," Brogdon said. "This was a team last year that prided themselves on defense. Defense was their calling card. And then this year, offense was our calling card, and I don’t think you win championships with the better offense than you have defense."

And Brogdon was doodoo on both ends this series. Should have had the awareness to sit his butt down

Can't understate Brogdon's role in last night's debacle. Everything went south when he came in and they never recovered.

Yeah, lots of bad decisions early last night, compounded by sticking with those decisions too long:

1.  That timeout when we were in the middle of a fast break, and were up by 5.  We were shooting poorly, but our defense was excellent.  Breaking momentum after getting a stop and while out in transition was a bad call.  Let Spo call that timeout.

2.  Sitting JT for nearly half the first quarter.  Miami built a lead.

3.  Playing Brogdon for eight straight minutes in the late first / early second.  Miami outscored us by 15.

4.  Playing drop coverage and allowing their shooters wide-open looks all night.

5.  Making no adjustments to the "bombs away" approach despite two straight games of horrible results.

A win may not have been in the cards last night, but anybody who thinks that Joe put the team in the best position to succeed is lying to themself.

[scaryjerry]

I’m getting depressed the more I think about this guy coming back next year. This Harden Rockets wannabe team was not fun to watch. The team is telling you the fit sucks, please listen to them.

Pretty sure Tatum is a big Joe guy.

[scaryjerry]

"It was the issue," Brogdon said. "This was a team last year that prided themselves on defense. Defense was their calling card. And then this year, offense was our calling card, and I don’t think you win championships with the better offense than you have defense."

And Brogdon was doodoo on both ends this series. Should have had the awareness to sit his butt down

Can't understate Brogdon's role in last night's debacle. Everything went south when he came in and they never recovered.

It was literally over once they put him in and he airballed a 3, missed a layup and couldn’t defend a chair.

Ballgame.

This series turned around when that bum was glued to the bench. HUGE mistake playing him last night

[Roy H.]

"It was the issue," Brogdon said. "This was a team last year that prided themselves on defense. Defense was their calling card. And then this year, offense was our calling card, and I don’t think you win championships with the better offense than you have defense."

And Brogdon was doodoo on both ends this series. Should have had the awareness to sit his butt down

Can't understate Brogdon's role in last night's debacle. Everything went south when he came in and they never recovered.

It was literally over once they put him in and he airballed a 3, missed a layup and couldn’t defend a chair.

Ballgame.

This series turned around when that bum was glued to the bench. HUGE mistake playing him last night

He's playing with a torn tendon in his shooting elbow.  I have a hard time calling the 6MOY a "bum".  Blame the coach for playing him.

[Kernewek]

Also, there’s got to be a plan B when the threes aren’t falling. Even last night, we were generally getting good looks off, but simply not making them. If your entire philosophy is that they’re eventually going to go in so keep shooting, you’re going to lose alot of games that way, because they’re not always going to go in.

That's my issue.  For instance:

Boston finished the season 38-2 when it hit at least 40% of its 3-pointers and 30-32 when it didn’t.

If we're not shooting above league average (and our own average), we're a below .500 team.  And, we didn't hit that mark in 62 out of 102 games this year.

I saw this stat in this ESPN article, but it feels more like some narrative cherry picking by Bontemps, as you've nicely highlighted.

For one thing, there's an inherent tautology in the way it's presented because, as we know, the Celtics finished the playoffs and the regular season 68-34 shooting an average of 37.3% on threes, meaning they very literally are a better than .500 team when we shoot our average from three or better, let alone at a 40% clip.

So what does this mean? Bontemps is either picking a sampling for a narrative or assuming no one is going to do the legwork to evaluate what this winning and losing three point threshold actually is for the Celtics - because the splits are in the same ballpark, more or less, as far down as you go.

W-L by 3pt percentage:
Below 40%: 30-32   Above 40%: 32-2
Below 39%: 25-30   Above 39%: 43-3
Below 38%: 25-27   Above 38%: 43-6
Below 37%: 23-26   Above 37%: 45-8
Below 36%: 21-26   Above 36%  47-8
Below 35%: 16-25   Above 35%: 52-9
Below 34%: 13-22   Above 34%: 55-11

There are going to be some minor discrepancies above because I've just done a quick count for greater or less (i.e. there's one game missing in the second line because we had one game where we shot exactly 39%, so it's not counted as either higher or lower), but you get the idea.


In other words, Bontemps could have just as easily said "the celtics are 23-26 when they failed to hit the league average 3P% and 47-8 when they shoot above it", but that doesn't encourage the live by the three die by the three narrative, it just says (unsurprisingly) that the celtics win more games when they shoot the three well... just like every other team in the NBA.

[scaryjerry]

"It was the issue," Brogdon said. "This was a team last year that prided themselves on defense. Defense was their calling card. And then this year, offense was our calling card, and I don’t think you win championships with the better offense than you have defense."

And Brogdon was doodoo on both ends this series. Should have had the awareness to sit his butt down

Can't understate Brogdon's role in last night's debacle. Everything went south when he came in and they never recovered.

It was literally over once they put him in and he airballed a 3, missed a layup and couldn’t defend a chair.

Ballgame.

This series turned around when that bum was glued to the bench. HUGE mistake playing him last night

He's playing with a torn tendon in his shooting elbow.  I have a hard time calling the 6MOY a "bum".  Blame the coach for playing him.

He had a good year and deserved 6th man of the year but regressed to what he is in the playoffs, bad defender who can’t stay healthy.

I do blame Joe for playing him, for me it was single-handedly the dumbest thing he did all year