NBA Season 2022-23

[SparzWizard]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

This is my issue with Denver. They have to play PHO in the 2nd round.

I love that Nuggets team. They were one of the most dominant teams in the league 2-3 years ago until Jamal Murray first got injured. This is the first time since then that they are healthy again. Murray and Porter Jr. No starting backcourt made up of 3rd stringers like last year (or was it the year before?). They are a legit title contender. An excellent team.

My issue is that I have the 3 top teams in the West as PHO, LAC and DEN. PHO and LAC will meet in the 1st round so one of those two teams will be out. Then the winner will play DEN in the 2nd round and another one of those 3 teams will be out. So we will lose 2 of the top 3 teams in West before we even get to the WCF.

It is a terrible draw. Very bad luck for each of those 3 teams.

And incredibly lucky for the 4 teams on the opposite side of the bracket who have an easy route to the WCF. Hopefully GSW can win that and we can have a decent WCF but I fear for them against SAC - bad matchup for GSW in my view. We could easily end up with LAL or SAC in the WCF and have a crappy series.

Back to PHO and DEN. PHO caused DEN a lot of problems in the playoffs a few years ago with D Booker and CP3 in the high PnR against Jokic. Now they have Durant to exploit that vulnerability as well. I just do not think that is a good matchup for DEN. It was always going to be an issue for them but PHO are perhaps the best team in the league at exploiting that very weakness. So I chose PHO to beat DEN in the 2nd round.

Unfortunate draw for DEN because I do really love that team and consider them a legit title contender. I'd love to be wrong and see them beat PHO. DEN are my favourite team in the West. They are the team I'll be rooting for to win the West.

This why we gotta make sure Lakers and Warriors face each other in the West Semis, so LAL gets bounced. Even tho I love the Kings magical run this season, but they not beating LAL. I'm just not too sold on Denver and their D, they'll lose in the second round.

[celticsclay]

I certainly hope I’m not having to admit I was incredibly wrong about this 6 weeks from now but the lakers love affair on this forum is one of the more baffling developments I can remember. People seem extra emboldened after they needed a comeback and overtime to beat a mediocre wolves team missing Gobert and their best wing defender (plus also the worst game of edwards career). That was hardly impressive. People are also bashing the memphis bigs, which, yes they are short handed. But the lakers didn’t just sign Tristan Thompson of the street cause they have a ton of good bigs besides Davis. Like vanderbilt and Gabriel are some big problem?

[gouki88]

Aldama and Tillman are quality 3rd stringers but neither one of these guys are solid rotation players. And they are not just the 4th big here. They are the 2nd best and 3rd best bigs on the team behind JJJ. That is a major problem.

Memphis are in trouble.

I disagree about Tillman.  He's really taken a step forward.  Since the All-Star game he's made 21 starts, and he's putting up 10 / 7 with 62% FG%.  His net rating has been good, too, as Memphis has generally thrived with him in the game.

But, in general, Memphis isn't a complete team without Adams in the middle, which allows their other players to come off the bench or to move away from the paint.

I don't like Tillman. He is not skilled on offense and he doesn't do much on defense. He is too slow to switch and/or cover athletic or perimeter bigs + too he is too small to provide rim protection in the paint. He is just a bulky guy with limited defensive utility. On offense, he can't create his own shot, he can't shoot with any range, he is not a passer. He is an unskilled garbage man.

All he is is a live body who understands that he has very little talent so he doesn't try to do anything beyond himself (which is most things on the basketball court) so effectively minimizes his mistakes. He is an active screen setter and hard worker but he is nothing more than a dodgy defender / unskilled garbage man.

Both demonstrably false statements.

[Neurotic Guy]

I certainly hope I’m not having to admit I was incredibly wrong about this 6 weeks from now but the lakers love affair on this forum is one of the more baffling developments I can remember. People seem extra emboldened after they needed a comeback and overtime to beat a mediocre wolves team missing Gobert and their best wing defender (plus also the worst game of edwards career). That was hardly impressive. People are also bashing the memphis bigs, which, yes they are short handed. But the lakers didn’t just sign Tristan Thompson of the street cause they have a ton of good bigs besides Davis. Like vanderbilt and Gabriel are some big problem?

Sickens me that Lakers garner any attention here. They should be the team that should not be named.  Especially when they haven’t shown to be an elite team.  If they surprise and look like world beaters all of a sudden I guess it’ll make sense to endure their mention.  For now they get Wolves with no Gobert and then Grizz with no Adams and hopefully we don’t hear about them until the next top 10 tries to engineer his way there.

[Who]

I certainly hope I’m not having to admit I was incredibly wrong about this 6 weeks from now but the lakers love affair on this forum is one of the more baffling developments I can remember. People seem extra emboldened after they needed a comeback and overtime to beat a mediocre wolves team missing Gobert and their best wing defender (plus also the worst game of edwards career). That was hardly impressive. People are also bashing the memphis bigs, which, yes they are short handed. But the lakers didn’t just sign Tristan Thompson of the street cause they have a ton of good bigs besides Davis. Like vanderbilt and Gabriel are some big problem?

It's not that the Lakers are so good. It is that they are avoiding all the difficult opponents.

If they were playing PHO, LAC, DEN (or even GSW), I would expect LAL to get bounced in the first round. Not only will they manage to avoid them in the first round but if LAL advances, they will avoid them in the 2nd round as well (chance they might draw GSW).

They have a good chance to advance not because LAL are so impressive but because they are avoiding all the impressive teams and playing against average teams (much like themselves). 

If GSW beat SAC, I do fully expect them to dispatch LAL. I like LA's chances against MEM & SAC though. Even MEM, MEM is only average because they are down their 2nd and 3rd best big men. If MEM was healthy, they'd easily defeat this Lakers team but they aren't and they are vulnerable.

SAC I haven't been a fan of all year. They have been healthier than other Western teams rather than better than them. Good chance they get knocked out early. I thought they would be first round fodder but I do like that GSW matchup for them. That works well for SAC.

[Who]

Aldama and Tillman are quality 3rd stringers but neither one of these guys are solid rotation players. And they are not just the 4th big here. They are the 2nd best and 3rd best bigs on the team behind JJJ. That is a major problem.

Memphis are in trouble.

I disagree about Tillman.  He's really taken a step forward.  Since the All-Star game he's made 21 starts, and he's putting up 10 / 7 with 62% FG%.  His net rating has been good, too, as Memphis has generally thrived with him in the game.

But, in general, Memphis isn't a complete team without Adams in the middle, which allows their other players to come off the bench or to move away from the paint.

I don't like Tillman. He is not skilled on offense and he doesn't do much on defense. He is too slow to switch and/or cover athletic or perimeter bigs + too he is too small to provide rim protection in the paint. He is just a bulky guy with limited defensive utility. On offense, he can't create his own shot, he can't shoot with any range, he is not a passer. He is an unskilled garbage man.

All he is is a live body who understands that he has very little talent so he doesn't try to do anything beyond himself (which is most things on the basketball court) so effectively minimizes his mistakes. He is an active screen setter and hard worker but he is nothing more than a dodgy defender / unskilled garbage man.

Both demonstrably false statements.

What is Tillman's defensive utility?

He is too small at center. He has good bulk for physicality but limited height, length and leaping ability stops him from being much more than a basic interior defender & an inferior help defender around the basket. Not a shot-blocking deterrent. Opponents know the lane is wide open when JJJ isn't there. He is not quick enough to cover perimeter players. So he is not really a 5 defensively and he is not really a 4 defensively. Tillman struggles on switches. He can't stop dribble penetration against wings or guards. He doesn't have the foot-speed to stay in front of people. 

You may be right that I am under-rating his passing. 1.6apg to 0.7 turnovers is pretty solid. I never see him doing much with his passing. I see him setting good screens but rarely anything with his passing.

[Who]

People are also bashing the memphis bigs, which, yes they are short handed. But the lakers didn’t just sign Tristan Thompson of the street cause they have a ton of good bigs besides Davis. Like vanderbilt and Gabriel are some big problem?

I like Vanderbilt more than MEM's bigs. Vanderbilt is a high level defensive forward. He has outstanding speed, length and activity. He is a high quality one-on-one defender. His team defense is excellent. He is brilliant on switches in defending smaller forwards & guards. He is strong enough to switch effectively onto bigger players. He provides some weak-side shot-blocking. He creates turnovers. So he has game-changing level defense which Tillman does not have for MEM.

I would compare Aldama to Hachimura. Both players are more combo forwards (PF/SF) rather than true big men. Aldama is taller but skinny and easily pushed around. Hachimura has a much more complete offensive game with better ball-handling, driving and shot-creation. Aldama more of a spot-up shooter. More limited. Likewise, Hachimura is more complete on defense. A well rounded defensive forward who can matchup to most forwards in the league physically. Aldama on the other hand is tall and awkward. He struggles to contain smaller players and his lack of bulk hurts him when defending bigger players. So he doesn't matchup well with most half-decent opponents.

LAL has Mo Bamba. A legit shot-blocking defensive presence at center off their bench. MEM has nobody who can offer that. JJJ is their only big man who offers any shot-blocking presence; when he is off the floor, their interior D is wide open. LA can use Bamba when AD rests if they want to maintain a shot-blocker inside. An option MEM do not have.

So I would value:

Vanderbilt > Tillman
Hachimura > Aldama
Bamba > (nobody)

Of course this would be completely different if Adams and Clarke were healthy. They would have two rim protectors next to JJJ. Two tough rebounders. Lots of physicality and energy. MEM's big men would then destroy LA's mediocre bigs.

Problem is Tillman and Aldama are not even mediocre.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Who scheduled this without a game today? That stinks.

[mobilija]

Who scheduled this without a game today? That stinks.

Even GOD took a day off...


I've still checked this site a dozen times today tho. The world doesn't spin without ya'll.

[Phantom255x]

Who scheduled this without a game today? That stinks.

Even GOD took a day off...


I've still checked this site a dozen times today tho. The world doesn't spin without ya'll.

It literally feels like AGES since the C's last played, even though it was 4 days ago 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Who scheduled this without a game today? That stinks.

Even GOD took a day off...


I've still checked this site a dozen times today tho. The world doesn't spin without ya'll.

Lol. Fair enough.

[Who]

I am watching an old game from 10-12 years ago with Shelden Williams playing. Not a bad comparison for Tillman in terms of value.

I was very happy with Shelden Williams as a 3rd stringer. He was just about adequate as a 10-15mpg 4th big man / 9th or 10th man and an outright liability when asked for more than that. I see Tillman similarly.

Kris Humphries is also playing in the game. Tillman ain't as good as Humphries. Humphries was more athletic and more skilled with a jump-shot away from the basket. He was a good 4th big (rather than just about adequate) but also a liability if asked for more than that.

[footey]

John Hollinger of the Athletic (father of PER) predicts Celts over Nuggets in Finals. About the only national writer not picking Bucks or Suns. Relied a lot on stat modeling. Hope he is right. He is By no means a green goggle guy.

[Moranis]

John Hollinger of the Athletic (father of PER) predicts Celts over Nuggets in Finals. About the only national writer not picking Bucks or Suns. Relied a lot on stat modeling. Hope he is right. He is By no means a green goggle guy.

Hopefully he is right, but I've find many of those stat based predictions, just don't work going from the regular to post season.  It is just a different game that the stats can't account for.

[Vermont Green]

John Hollinger of the Athletic (father of PER) predicts Celts over Nuggets in Finals. About the only national writer not picking Bucks or Suns. Relied a lot on stat modeling. Hope he is right. He is By no means a green goggle guy.

He probably uses a lot of advanced stats vs. just going with subjective material based on watching games and listening to chatter.  Another source that is interesting is the 538 site [ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/ ].  They have the following order/predictions (which would produce the same result as Hollinger, Celtics over Nuggets in the finals):

BOS    25%
MIL     21%
PHI     16%
DEN    14%
GSW    9%
MEM    5%
PHO    4%
CLE     3%
LAL     3%

They are purely algorithm generated predictions based on historical advanced stats.  I am showing the RAPTOR model predictions.  The Elo model likes the Celtics even more (34% to win title).  I think that is why PHO is so low.  They now have Durant but he has not been in there to impact their stats.  The algorithm can't make a correction for the Durant factor.  That seems to be the one team that they are really missing on relative to my subjective impression.

What this reinforces is that advanced stats can tell you one thing but subjective factors tell you something different, in some cases.  Subjectively, you think GSW are going to flip the switch, that DEN always fizzles out in the playoffs, but the advanced stats don't reflect this.  The truth tends to lie somewhere in between the advanced stats and general subjective impressions.  If you are swayed too much by either, you are probably going to get pulled off the mark some.