NBA Season 2022-23

[Celtics2021]

Aldama and Tillman are quality 3rd stringers but neither one of these guys are solid rotation players. And they are not just the 4th big here. They are the 2nd best and 3rd best bigs on the team behind JJJ. That is a major problem.

Memphis are in trouble.

I disagree about Tillman.  He's really taken a step forward.  Since the All-Star game he's made 21 starts, and he's putting up 10 / 7 with 62% FG%.  His net rating has been good, too, as Memphis has generally thrived with him in the game.

But, in general, Memphis isn't a complete team without Adams in the middle, which allows their other players to come off the bench or to move away from the paint.

I'm a big Tillman fan.  He was someone I was hopeful might shake free in the pre-season because of Memphis' depth chart, but they held onto him.  He's showing Memphis they made the correct decision.  Everyone's rushing to pick the Lakers, but they're aren't going to win four vs. Memphis -- that depth for the Grizzlies will make a difference over 7 games.

[Birdman]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

[Vermont Green]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

[Goldstar88]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Those guys don’t play defense, that’s why. Jokic isn’t very good defensively either. It matters a lot more in the postseason.

[Vermont Green]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Those guys don’t play defense, that’s why. Jokic isn’t very good defensively either. It matters a lot more in the postseason.

Yeah, I know, that is the prevailing narrative.  Denver was 15th in the league in DRTG at 113.5 and 6th in the league in NRTG at +3.3.  The only west team with a better NRTG was Memphis at +4.0  Do with these stats what you want.  Some believe they mean a lot, some not much at all.  I think Denver is going to be plenty competitive with any team in the west.

[Celtics2021]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

Forget about Denver and Memphis -- the Kings are +2800 to win the West.  That's 7th out of 7 teams that have qualified.  I'm not saying they'll win, but I am saying I'd pick them before a bunch of other teams, including their first-round opponent.

[tazzmaniac]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Those guys don’t play defense, that’s why. Jokic isn’t very good defensively either. It matters a lot more in the postseason.

I agree.  7 game playoff series are a whole different beast than the regular season and Denver was mid-pack defensively during the regular season.  If they were facing the Lakers in the 1st round, I'd probably have picked an upset. 

[Moranis]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Is doubt with Denver or just a belief that Phoenix is better?  I mean if someone picks Boston over Milwaukee, does that mean they doubt Milwaukee or they just feel Boston is better?

[Celtics2021]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Is doubt with Denver or just a belief that Phoenix is better?  I mean if someone picks Boston over Milwaukee, does that mean they doubt Milwaukee or they just feel Boston is better?

Asking for a friend?

[Phantom255x]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I picked Denver to make the Finals at the beginning of the season. Now I think it's probably Phoenix with Durant, although tbh we also haven't seen Durant with Phoenix that much either due to the injuries. Will there be a chemistry issue or just smooth sailing for PHX? We'll see.

If I had to rank my likely teams coming out of the West, in order it'd be Phoenix, Denver, Golden State, LA Clippers. I still won't count out Golden State, especially since they are already getting Wiggins back and are of course more than battle-tested compared to some of the other teams

[Donoghus]

West odds right now per DK.

PHX +190
GSW +350
DEN +380
LAL +650
MEM +700
LAC +1900
SAC +2800
MIN +15000
OKC +30000

[Goldstar88]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Those guys don’t play defense, that’s why. Jokic isn’t very good defensively either. It matters a lot more in the postseason.

Yeah, I know, that is the prevailing narrative.  Denver was 15th in the league in DRTG at 113.5 and 6th in the league in NRTG at +3.3.  The only west team with a better NRTG was Memphis at +4.0  Do with these stats what you want.  Some believe they mean a lot, some not much at all.  I think Denver is going to be plenty competitive with any team in the west.

I think Denver will be competitive, but I don’t think they can beat Golden State or Phoenix in a 7 game series. Especially if Wiggins is back and KD is close to being 100%. Hope I’m wrong, though. Would much rather the Nuggets come out of the West.

[Vermont Green]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Those guys don’t play defense, that’s why. Jokic isn’t very good defensively either. It matters a lot more in the postseason.

I agree.  7 game playoff series are a whole different beast than the regular season and Denver was mid-pack defensively during the regular season.  If they were facing the Lakers in the 1st round, I'd probably have picked an upset.

I get that stats are just stats and playoffs are different than regular season (refs call things differently, etc.) but yes, DEN was "mid-pack" defensively in the league and in the west but so wasn't MIN, OKC, LAL, GSW, and LAC.  All had a DRTG between 113.1 and 113.6.  PHO was a little better (112.3) and MEM was a lot better (110.7).  So if defense wins in the playoffs, I guess people should be in on MEM. 

SAC is the only statistically bad defensive team of the west playoff teams, based on regular season advanced stats (DRTG 116.0).  If MEM isn't a real contender (which I agree with), then the only team in the west with even a marginally better DRTG than DEN is PHO, and I don't think they are going to win anything with their defense.  And they were 113.2 after mid-Feb and the trade.

Denver's starters/most used lineup (Murray, Caldwell-Pope, Porter, Gordon, Jokic) had a DRTG of 111.2 and a NRTG of 13.1.  The point differential +/- was +201.  I am not saying that DEN is going to run away with this but I think they are good.  We'll see.  Their first round will be OKC or MIN.  I don't see DEN having any trouble with either team.  Then probably the Suns.  The Suns can beat DEN, if Durant is right.  The Suns are a good team also.  But I would favor DEN.

It is interesting, that if you look at 5-man lineups with >300 minutes, DEN's big-5 is second best in terms of NRTG at 13.1.  PHI and BOS big 5 lineups are close by at 12.6 and 12.1 respectively.  The best big-5 unit is GSW with S. Curry - K. Thompson - D. Green - A. Wiggins - K. Looney at +21.9 (only 27 gms, 331 minutes).

[Vermont Green]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

Is doubt with Denver or just a belief that Phoenix is better?  I mean if someone picks Boston over Milwaukee, does that mean they doubt Milwaukee or they just feel Boston is better?

I don't think it is unreasonable at all to believe that PHO with Durant is a little better than DEN.  To me, that is different than believing that DEN can't win in the playoffs because they are bad on defense.  I think it will be tough for PHO as they just have not played together as a unit with Durant all that much.  But not unrealistic to believe they could gel and be the best team in the west.

[Who]

Funny is how Denver & Memphis are 1 & 2 seed but lot of ppl are not picking them in the Finals

I get the doubt with Memphis.  They have injuries, Morant has his off court baggage.  LAL could be a very tough low seed opponent.

I do not get the doubt with Denver.  People seem to have convinced themselves that they are not going to be good in the playoffs but last season in the playoffs, they didn't have Murray or Porter.  Those are two important players.  I would still have them as the favorite to come out of the west.  PHO is probably right there too if Durant is right.  Not sure if GSW still have a switch to flip, but maybe.

This is my issue with Denver. They have to play PHO in the 2nd round.

I love that Nuggets team. They were one of the most dominant teams in the league 2-3 years ago until Jamal Murray first got injured. This is the first time since then that they are healthy again. Murray and Porter Jr. No starting backcourt made up of 3rd stringers like last year (or was it the year before?). They are a legit title contender. An excellent team.

My issue is that I have the 3 top teams in the West as PHO, LAC and DEN. PHO and LAC will meet in the 1st round so one of those two teams will be out. Then the winner will play DEN in the 2nd round and another one of those 3 teams will be out. So we will lose 2 of the top 3 teams in West before we even get to the WCF.

It is a terrible draw. Very bad luck for each of those 3 teams.

And incredibly lucky for the 4 teams on the opposite side of the bracket who have an easy route to the WCF. Hopefully GSW can win that and we can have a decent WCF but I fear for them against SAC - bad matchup for GSW in my view. We could easily end up with LAL or SAC in the WCF and have a crappy series.

Back to PHO and DEN. PHO caused DEN a lot of problems in the playoffs a few years ago with D Booker and CP3 in the high PnR against Jokic. Now they have Durant to exploit that vulnerability as well. I just do not think that is a good matchup for DEN. It was always going to be an issue for them but PHO are perhaps the best team in the league at exploiting that very weakness. So I chose PHO to beat DEN in the 2nd round.

Unfortunate draw for DEN because I do really love that team and consider them a legit title contender. I'd love to be wrong and see them beat PHO. DEN are my favourite team in the West. They are the team I'll be rooting for to win the West.