Mitchell might very well be the front runner for MVP right now. Cavs are 5-1 and entering today he was averaging 31 p, 6.4 a, 4.8 r and is darn near a 50/40/90 shooter. And of course today he only goes for 38 p, 12 a, 3 r shooting 60% from the field overall and 61.5% from 3.
So far for me the 4 standouts have been Spida, Giannis, Tatum & Doncic.
I wouldn't have Doncic there yet. Mavs haven't been good enough at 2-3 and actually have been a lot better per 100 possessions with him on the bench. Doncic has a -9.1 on/off differential per 100 possessions. He is a poor defender and so ball dominant, that the Mavs often play better when he is on the bench. Even last year his on/off differential was just a +0.2. He obviously isn't just an empty stats guy, but to be as ball dominant as he is, you have to be a more complete player. Guys like Lebron (in his prime), Giannis, etc. are just so much better defenders and just have a better knack for knowing when they need to take over and when to back off. Doncic hasn't figured that out yet.
I understand the criticism, but it has no bearing on MVP voting (see Harden)
The year Harden won the MVP, his on/off differential per 100 possessions was +5.3. Now that is lower than most MVP's, but it is good. And that was one of his lower seasons in Houston.
Your reliance on on/off has led you to poor takes before, and is doing so again. His BPM is off the charts, for example.
A deeper look at lineup data would explain why Doncic's on/off has been so poor - there has only been 78 minutes of him sitting on the bench and the team has been shooting an insane 46.55% from three in those minutes. When you factor in the fact that Doncic is playing against the strongest lineups of opposing teams most of the time, it's easy to see why his raw +/- data has been poor for the calibre of player he is. I think he's approaching some of the ATG wing peaks (e.g. Kobe, Wade, KD, Kawhi, TMac, etc, perhaps West if you're low on the Logo) as an overall player with his improvements on both ends of the court under the tutelage of Jason Kidd.
Yeah we're firmly in the throes of the small sample size kraken at the moment - Doncic's play thus far has been absolutely insane, Dallas just isn't a great team (to my eye at least).
This year is a small sample size, but last year and the year before, and the year before it all holds true. In his 4 full seasons, Doncic's on/off differential per 100 possessions are -3.7, +1.2, +3.0, +0.2. So far this year it is -2.8. This isn't some 6 game fluke and Doncic has had a very hard time making it work with other "great" teammates. Porzingis and Brunson in particular didn't play well with Doncic (and didn't like playing with him).
And I think you could at least make an argument, that the reason the team shoots so well without Doncic on the court, is because they play a better team game, they move the ball better, and thus create better shots. Having a guy so ball dominant like Doncic can create those type of issues. Obviously, it is great that he can create a shot for himself at any time, but when he is on the court, he is the offense. Everything rests on his shoulders, and that can lead to situations where your teammates aren't as engaged and they play better when he isn't on the court. It also doesn't help that he is a poor defender even when he tries. Now as we saw in the playoff run last year, he can just take over games and will his team to victory, but he can't do that stuff every night. He has to get better at involving his teammates.
Doncic has immense talent and can go down as one of the greatest players ever, but he has a long way to go on that front. He hasn't quite figured out how to maximize his play to yield winning basketball, especially for his teammates.
