Strategy for Bucks Game Tonight (7 Apr 2022)

[colincb]

I was on the fence, but the bad Karma argument, HCA, and the Nets' struggles putting bad teams away the last couple of weeks moved me into the light.

Go for the best seed.

[Celtics2021]

If there are legit concerns about playing a guy, sure, rest him.  It's not worth Tatum severely injuring his knee if that tendinopathy is an actual problem.  But failing that with any given player, the C's should try to keep the good times rolling tonight and rest on Sunday.

[heyvik]

Not trying to derail the conversation but does anyone think that the NETS will try for a 1st round matchup with the C's? Meaning that if the C's somehow get the opportunity to be #1 (is that still possible) BKN would try for that first round matchup. So if the C's win the next 2, and Miami loses the next two the C's would be #1 seed. BKN could get choose to rest players and stay at 8 but 'strategically' choose to rest starters in the 1st game play in game (7vs8) and then choose to 'get healthy' for the 2nd play in game (8 vs 9).

[Roy H.]

Not trying to derail the conversation but does anyone think that the NETS will try for a 1st round matchup with the C's? Meaning that if the C's somehow get the opportunity to be #1 (is that still possible) BKN would try for that first round matchup. So if the C's win the next 2, and Miami loses the next two the C's would be #1 seed. BKN could get choose to rest players and stay at 8 but 'strategically' choose to rest starters in the 1st game play in game (7vs8) and then choose to 'get healthy' for the 2nd play in game (8 vs 9).

I don't know why BRK would prefer Boston, but even if they did, they're not going to put themselves on the brink of elimination on purpose by losing the first play-in game.

[Celtics2021]

Not trying to derail the conversation but does anyone think that the NETS will try for a 1st round matchup with the C's? Meaning that if the C's somehow get the opportunity to be #1 (is that still possible) BKN would try for that first round matchup. So if the C's win the next 2, and Miami loses the next two the C's would be #1 seed. BKN could get choose to rest players and stay at 8 but 'strategically' choose to rest starters in the 1st game play in game (7vs8) and then choose to 'get healthy' for the 2nd play in game (8 vs 9).

It would be incredibly risky to put yourself into a single elimination scenario on purpose, when presented with a double-elimination alternative.

So no, I don’t think Brooklyn would do that, even if they should prefer Miami as an opponent.

[Silas]

I've never been a fan of losing on purpose.  I also don't believe in Karma!  That said, what I do believe is that Ime should not play his starters more than 15-20 minutes.  This team is playing strong basketball and both the starters and bench are playing well.  The team should play to win.  However, with starter minutes reduced the game should be more difficult and may result in a loss that many of you desire.   I don't think they should play like it's game 7 and I don't think they should rest starters by not playing at all, only reduced minutes. 

[SHAQATTACK]

I just don’t see any of the many past  greats I ‘ve admired wanting to be told to sit because their coach doesn’t want the team to meet a certain other club in playoffs .  I’m trying imagine telling this to KG , Pierce or Bird . 

A true great club , moves on without Rob Will,  and faces the challenges head on.  It’s hard to believe a real coach worth his salt would want any less ….win or loose.

[Goldstar88]

Said this in another thread. If we rest, Ime is telling the guys we are not good enough to take on the nets. This is playing not to lose rather than playing to win. If Brooklyn is that much of a juggernaut, then it doesn't matter when we play them, they will eventually get to us. Further, HCA is huge in this sport.
 
What if we get to the finals and lose out to having HCA because we were too afraid to play the Nets?

If seeding isn't that important then we should have been resting guys for months.

Or it’s telling them: if you guys are healthy going into the playoffs you can beat anyone. We already lost Rob and are hopeful that he will be back at some point, but we really can’t risk anyone else in the rotation getting injured at this stage. We are guaranteed a top 4 spot. Health is the #1 priority for the team at this stage.

If they rested guys for months, they wouldn’t be in the playoffs.

So you are saying rest the players because you are afraid that someone will be injured, not as a way to game the standings?

So no starters at all?

This poll is about hearing opinions and gaging the consensus but I have to say that this doesn't make sense to me.  It is true, someone might get injured, roll and ankle, whatever.

Yes, make sure no one else gets injured as that would completely derail the postseason for the Celtics. Seeding is not the #1 priority; health is. Need everyone to be as close to 100% as possible for a deep playoff push. How does that not make sense?

[ozgod]

Play the way we've been playing and go for the win. Play the right way and the basketball gods should reward us. If we have to play Brooklyn I'd rather play them now and knock them out now. Get our first hits in early.

I just don’t see any of the many past  greats I ‘ve admired wanting to be told to sit because their coach doesn’t want the team to meet a certain other club in playoffs .  I’m trying imagine telling this to KG , Pierce or Bird . 

A true great club , moves on without Rob Will,  and faces the challenges head on.  It’s hard to believe a real coach worth his salt would want any less ….win or loose.

TP, my sentiments exactly. We have no idea what game someone will get injured in. I'm sure to the players, and the mentality they are trying to get into the playoffs with, to maintain the rhythm and approach they've been playing with so far, there's no such thing as a meaningless game, especially with a team we may end up facing in the playoffs. There's a risk in trying to overcomplicate things and be too cute with trying to manipulate seedings and deviating from the mindset that has gotten them this far. Now they're not thinking about winning every game, they're thinking about risk management. Think of the mindset players need to have to compete with others at the highest level, there's no room for messing around with that mental approach. Also, wrapping people in cotton wool too long runs the risk of them falling out of rhythm.

Now with the Memphis game, I can see Ime giving some guys the night off, because it doesn't affect the seedings, we will know who we have to play and it's a chance to rest some niggles. The same risks with rhythm, finishing the season strong, keeping the same mindset apply though so I would prefer we finish off the season the same way and the same approach we've been adopting since the start of this year. Why change things if they have been working because we're scared of the injury risk? That's part of sports.

[angryguy77]

Said this in another thread. If we rest, Ime is telling the guys we are not good enough to take on the nets. This is playing not to lose rather than playing to win. If Brooklyn is that much of a juggernaut, then it doesn't matter when we play them, they will eventually get to us. Further, HCA is huge in this sport.
 
What if we get to the finals and lose out to having HCA because we were too afraid to play the Nets?

If seeding isn't that important then we should have been resting guys for months.

Or it’s telling them: if you guys are healthy going into the playoffs you can beat anyone. We already lost Rob and are hopeful that he will be back at some point, but we really can’t risk anyone else in the rotation getting injured at this stage. We are guaranteed a top 4 spot. Health is the #1 priority for the team at this stage.

If they rested guys for months, they wouldn’t be in the playoffs.

So you are saying rest the players because you are afraid that someone will be injured, not as a way to game the standings?

So no starters at all?

This poll is about hearing opinions and gaging the consensus but I have to say that this doesn't make sense to me.  It is true, someone might get injured, roll and ankle, whatever.

Yes, make sure no one else gets injured as that would completely derail the postseason for the Celtics. Need everyone to be as close to 100% as possible for a deep playoff push. How does that not make sense?

They have a week off in between. How many times have we seen it in sports where a good team gets bounced because it had too long of a break? There's a legit risk in sitting these guys too long.

I do understand your point, and there is some sound logic behind it. That said, should the team not practice during its time off to avoid potential injuries?

The goal of the reg season is to get into the playoffs and win it all. HCA helps achieve that goal.

Look at the 2008 team. What happens if they don't have HCA those first 2 rounds. We know what happened because they did.

[Moranis]

isn't the 1 seed still in play?

Technically, but what are the chances that Miami loses to Atlanta and Orlando to end the season?

I'd say losing to Atlanta is pretty good and the game is at Orlando so not out of the realm, though unlikely. 

[Goldstar88]

Said this in another thread. If we rest, Ime is telling the guys we are not good enough to take on the nets. This is playing not to lose rather than playing to win. If Brooklyn is that much of a juggernaut, then it doesn't matter when we play them, they will eventually get to us. Further, HCA is huge in this sport.
 
What if we get to the finals and lose out to having HCA because we were too afraid to play the Nets?

If seeding isn't that important then we should have been resting guys for months.

Or it’s telling them: if you guys are healthy going into the playoffs you can beat anyone. We already lost Rob and are hopeful that he will be back at some point, but we really can’t risk anyone else in the rotation getting injured at this stage. We are guaranteed a top 4 spot. Health is the #1 priority for the team at this stage.

If they rested guys for months, they wouldn’t be in the playoffs.

So you are saying rest the players because you are afraid that someone will be injured, not as a way to game the standings?

So no starters at all?

This poll is about hearing opinions and gaging the consensus but I have to say that this doesn't make sense to me.  It is true, someone might get injured, roll and ankle, whatever.

Yes, make sure no one else gets injured as that would completely derail the postseason for the Celtics. Need everyone to be as close to 100% as possible for a deep playoff push. How does that not make sense?

They have a week off in between. How many times have we seen it in sports where a good team gets bounced because it had too long of a break? There's a legit risk in sitting these guys too long.

I do understand your point, and there is some sound logic behind it. That said, should the team not practice during its time off to avoid potential injuries?

The goal of the reg season is to get into the playoffs and win it all. HCA helps achieve that goal.

Look at the 2008 team. What happens if they don't have HCA those first 2 rounds. We know what happened because they did.

Sure, but I feel like the chances of getting injured in a game when you are going all out are a little higher than practice. It’s a risk either way, but I do think the C’s can win on the road. I don’t think they can win if they lose another starter. Not worth the gamble, IMO. Every postseason the C’s are missing a major piece. Already down TL. Would rather not add to that list.

[cons]

the way they're rolling
i wouldnt risk taking my foot off the gas

just keep this going
thats the most important thing i think

beat the champs tonight

thats the right mindset

[Vermont Green]

I just don’t see any of the many past  greats I ‘ve admired wanting to be told to sit because their coach doesn’t want the team to meet a certain other club in playoffs .  I’m trying imagine telling this to KG , Pierce or Bird . 

A true great club , moves on without Rob Will,  and faces the challenges head on.  It’s hard to believe a real coach worth his salt would want any less ….win or loose.

I think this point doesn't get enough discussion.  What do the players want?  Do the players want to play or do they want to "rest".  If a player said I want or need rest, then sure, that player should be rested.  But I don't think any player is going to want to sit out as a means to game the standings or even just so that they don't get injured.

What player is going to take the position, "I am perfectly healthy and ready to play but I think I should sit out this game because I might get injured".  Yeah, I just don't see that.

Now if it is "I am a little banged up after last night, still a little sore in my hammie (or whatever), and a little rest wouldn't hurt.  That I can see.  Even that isn't all that likely, but I can see it.

But for a player to say I don't want to play tonight because I want the team to lose so that we don't have to maybe play BKN (31% chance BKN is the 7 seed per Basketball Reference) in the first round, that I don't see happening.

[Celtics2021]

Tatum and Horford are out tonight.  Rest of rotation (sans Rob) are likely playing (although Smart is listed as probable.)