What about Brad?

[slamtheking]

It just seems that the odds of hitting on a second rounder are so low compared to the #25 pick in the draft. The last time the Celtics found a rotation player in the 2nd round was Ryan Gomes and that was 20 years ago.

Big Baby was more recent, but yeah.

it's been a long time since the C's hit on a second rounder that turned into a quality player.  a lot of swings and misses.  used to be Danny was hitting at a pretty decent rate on those picks - Gomes, Baby, Powe.

[Who]

I remember some statistical study of the draft that reckoned picks in the 20s had around a 20% chance of netting a rotation caliber player. 1 in 5.

I'd say that splits in half to around 10% with picks in the 30s. Maybe 30-45 in a deep draft.

I have no hopes for picks in the 45-60 range. That is found gold if you get anything out of them. No expectations.

[slamtheking]

I remember some statistical study of the draft that reckoned picks in the 20s had around a 20% chance of netting a rotation caliber player. 1 in 5.

I'd say that splits in half to around 10% with picks in the 30s. Maybe 30-45 in a deep draft.

I have no hopes for picks in the 45-60 range. That is found gold if you get anything out of them. No expectations.

which makes sense so it begs the question of Brad --> why keep trading back into a drafting position where it'd take a miracle to pick someone who can actually make the team and contribute?  The only upside I can possibly see is using that multitude of second rounders in trades with other assets to bring in actual players.  thing is, if those second rounders are late then how much value do they really have?

[Moranis]

I remember some statistical study of the draft that reckoned picks in the 20s had around a 20% chance of netting a rotation caliber player. 1 in 5.

I'd say that splits in half to around 10% with picks in the 30s. Maybe 30-45 in a deep draft.

I have no hopes for picks in the 45-60 range. That is found gold if you get anything out of them. No expectations.

which makes sense so it begs the question of Brad --> why keep trading back into a drafting position where it'd take a miracle to pick someone who can actually make the team and contribute?  The only upside I can possibly see is using that multitude of second rounders in trades with other assets to bring in actual players.  thing is, if those second rounders are late then how much value do they really have?

because 8 cracks at 10% is better than 1 crack at 20%, which is ultimately what Brad got for 25th pick in 2023.

[Goldstar88]

It just seems that the odds of hitting on a second rounder are so low compared to the #25 pick in the draft. The last time the Celtics found a rotation player in the 2nd round was Ryan Gomes and that was 20 years ago.

Big Baby was more recent, but yeah.

Oh, right. Forgot about that draft night trade. So 2007. It?s been a while..

[Goldstar88]

I remember some statistical study of the draft that reckoned picks in the 20s had around a 20% chance of netting a rotation caliber player. 1 in 5.

I'd say that splits in half to around 10% with picks in the 30s. Maybe 30-45 in a deep draft.

I have no hopes for picks in the 45-60 range. That is found gold if you get anything out of them. No expectations.

which makes sense so it begs the question of Brad --> why keep trading back into a drafting position where it'd take a miracle to pick someone who can actually make the team and contribute?  The only upside I can possibly see is using that multitude of second rounders in trades with other assets to bring in actual players.  thing is, if those second rounders are late then how much value do they really have?

because 8 cracks at 10% is better than 1 crack at 20%, which is ultimately what Brad got for 25th pick in 2023.

Danny hit on 3 consecutive drafts with picks in the 20?s. Rob, Grant, Payton. Depends on the GM. As Roy pointed out, last time the C?s hit on a 2nd rounder was Big Baby in 2007.

[Roy H.]

I remember some statistical study of the draft that reckoned picks in the 20s had around a 20% chance of netting a rotation caliber player. 1 in 5.

I'd say that splits in half to around 10% with picks in the 30s. Maybe 30-45 in a deep draft.

I have no hopes for picks in the 45-60 range. That is found gold if you get anything out of them. No expectations.

which makes sense so it begs the question of Brad --> why keep trading back into a drafting position where it'd take a miracle to pick someone who can actually make the team and contribute?  The only upside I can possibly see is using that multitude of second rounders in trades with other assets to bring in actual players.  thing is, if those second rounders are late then how much value do they really have?

because 8 cracks at 10% is better than 1 crack at 20%, which is ultimately what Brad got for 25th pick in 2023.

Danny hit on 3 consecutive drafts with picks in the 20?s. Rob, Grant, Payton. Depends on the GM. As Roy pointed out, last time the C?s hit on a 2nd rounder was Big Baby in 2007.

Yeah.  Danny's picks in that #20 - #29 range were pretty stellar, and well-exceeded 20%.

2003:  #27 - Kendrick Perkins
2004:  #24 - Delonte West, #25 Tony Allen
2006: #21 - Rajon Rondo
2011:  #27 - JuJuan Johnson
2012: #21 - Fab Melo, #22 Jared Sullinger
2017: #23 - Ante Zizic
2018: #27 - Robert Williams
2019: #22 - Grant Williams
2020:  #26 - Payton Pritchard
-----------------------------------------
2022: #22 - Walker Kessler
2023: #28 - Brice Sensabaugh
2024: #29 - Isaiah Collier

Danny also landed Avery Bradley at #19 and Kyle Filipowski at #32.  But, just stick to the #20 - #29 criteria, that's 14 picks.  Three misses (Melo, Zizic, Johnson), one incomplete (Collier), and 10 rotation players (all of whom were at least borderline starters).

The only reason you trade #25 for a bunch of crappy second rounders is if you have no confidence in your drafting skill.

[Roy H.]

I haven't been watching preseason, but Charlotte thinks they got a steal in Kalkbrenner.

https://swarmandsting.com/hornets-found-their-center-future-with-steal-2025-draft

[Moranis]

It works both ways, I mean in the Melo/Sullinger draft there were 4 2nd rounders that have played over 650 games each (Draymond, Middleton, Crowder, and Barton) and several others over 300 games.  Middleton barely played as a rookie and it isn't like any of the other guys did much either.  If Ainge traded either of those picks and got 2 of those 2nd rounders, it would have been great (or Ainge could have just drafted 2 of them instead or Fan and Jared).

Then you can look at the Grant Williams draft and aay he is fine for the drsft position, but then realize 6 guys went from 23-30 that are better than him (5 for sure, 1 arguable).  So it could have been worse for Ainge there with someone like Dylan Windler, but it could have been a whole lot better as well. So was that a good pick or not, hard to say.

Not all drafts are created equal.  There is a lot of nuance and it sometimes takes years to really shake out. 

[Roy H.]

It works both ways, I mean in the Melo/Sullinger draft there were 4 2nd rounders that have played over 650 games each (Draymond, Middleton, Crowder, and Barton) and several others over 300 games.  Middleton barely played as a rookie and it isn't like any of the other guys did much either.  If Ainge traded either of those picks and got 2 of those 2nd rounders, it would have been great (or Ainge could have just drafted 2 of them instead or Fan and Jared).

Then you can look at the Grant Williams draft and aay he is fine for the drsft position, but then realize 6 guys went from 23-30 that are better than him (5 for sure, 1 arguable).  So it could have been worse for Ainge there with someone like Dylan Windler, but it could have been a whole lot better as well. So was that a good pick or not, hard to say.

Not all drafts are created equal.  There is a lot of nuance and it sometimes takes years to really shake out.

I find it hard to fault Danny for not landing the absolute best available player, when he's got a batting average over .750 with picks in that range.  Particularly when compared to Brad, who is hitting .000.

[Goldstar88]

It works both ways, I mean in the Melo/Sullinger draft there were 4 2nd rounders that have played over 650 games each (Draymond, Middleton, Crowder, and Barton) and several others over 300 games.  Middleton barely played as a rookie and it isn't like any of the other guys did much either.  If Ainge traded either of those picks and got 2 of those 2nd rounders, it would have been great (or Ainge could have just drafted 2 of them instead or Fan and Jared).

Then you can look at the Grant Williams draft and aay he is fine for the drsft position, but then realize 6 guys went from 23-30 that are better than him (5 for sure, 1 arguable).  So it could have been worse for Ainge there with someone like Dylan Windler, but it could have been a whole lot better as well. So was that a good pick or not, hard to say.

Not all drafts are created equal.  There is a lot of nuance and it sometimes takes years to really shake out.

I find it hard to fault Danny for not landing the absolute best available player, when he's got a batting average over .750 with picks in that range.  Particularly when compared to Brad, who is hitting .000.

Spurs are another organization that has had success drafting in the 20?s.

2016 Draft: Dejounte Murray (Pick #29), 2017 Draft: Derrick White (Pick #29), 2019 Draft: Keldon Johnson (Pick #29).

If you are wondering about the the 2018 pick, they selected Lonnie Walker at #18.

Another thing to consider is all the assets the Spurs were able to acquire by eventually trading Murray and White.

[CFAN38]

I haven't been watching preseason, but Charlotte thinks they got a steal in Kalkbrenner.

https://swarmandsting.com/hornets-found-their-center-future-with-steal-2025-draft

The way agents negotiate for their clients in the second round makes it tougher to judge teams for passing on players. 

Predraft I was higher on Penda than Hugo but now can absolutely see why the Cs where higher on Hugo given his athletic profile.

I was really high on Raynaud (17th on my board) and Kalkbrenner (23rd). If the Cs had been willing to commit to either one at #32 I believe both prospects would have had a path to develop into rotation worthy centers in the nears future. Raynaud has the more dynamic offensive game and could have been a real asset for the Cs given the talent they lost at the 5.