What about Brad?

[slamtheking]

It just seems that the odds of hitting on a second rounder are so low compared to the #25 pick in the draft. The last time the Celtics found a rotation player in the 2nd round was Ryan Gomes and that was 20 years ago.

Big Baby was more recent, but yeah.

it's been a long time since the C's hit on a second rounder that turned into a quality player.  a lot of swings and misses.  used to be Danny was hitting at a pretty decent rate on those picks - Gomes, Baby, Powe.

[Who]

I remember some statistical study of the draft that reckoned picks in the 20s had around a 20% chance of netting a rotation caliber player. 1 in 5.

I'd say that splits in half to around 10% with picks in the 30s. Maybe 30-45 in a deep draft.

I have no hopes for picks in the 45-60 range. That is found gold if you get anything out of them. No expectations.

[slamtheking]

I remember some statistical study of the draft that reckoned picks in the 20s had around a 20% chance of netting a rotation caliber player. 1 in 5.

I'd say that splits in half to around 10% with picks in the 30s. Maybe 30-45 in a deep draft.

I have no hopes for picks in the 45-60 range. That is found gold if you get anything out of them. No expectations.

which makes sense so it begs the question of Brad --> why keep trading back into a drafting position where it'd take a miracle to pick someone who can actually make the team and contribute?  The only upside I can possibly see is using that multitude of second rounders in trades with other assets to bring in actual players.  thing is, if those second rounders are late then how much value do they really have?