Moses Brown trade irritating

[W8ting2McHale]

When exactly did the Kemba for Horford trade become the ‘Moses Brown trade’?

Right after the Josh Beckett trade became the Nick Punto trade.

[mr. dee]

Danny had a preference for guys who could play further than six feet from the basket.  Even with that said, he did draft Robert Williams.

The retro active narrative about how Brad was pushing for size kind of cracks me up. Brad didn’t use Kanter effectively, and Greg Monroe barely played.  That’s because as a coach Brad did not like traditional centers.

I agree that Brad seems to prefer guys who play away from the basket, but how exactly do you use Kanter effectively?  A lot of people talked about how he thrived with the Blazers as an indictment on Brad, but what happened in the playoffs?

Not to mention, Monroe played 19 minute a game in his half season in Boston, then 11 minutes with Toronto (and a few games in Boston and Philly) the following season, and then has been out of the NBA the last two years.  Monroe played a fair amount, but the NBA game passed him by.

Sure, but if that's the case, then why do we expect Moses Brown to be much better than Monroe in an even more modern NBA game?

More athletic and better lateral movement. Both Monroe and Kanter were stiffs that can easily be nullified through switches and perimeter defense.

[Kiorrik]

I feel he's the Rondo of '08. Unproven, huge upside, possibly all-star level.

What is it April's Fools Day in Australia? You must be joking, mate.

I think he had his wobbly boot on when he posted.

Here's why;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2l2SQN0Mhj4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5adwZuGRqR0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6kcFxzUP6w

In short; he's quick, tall, and his highlights look a lot like RWill's highlights.

And he's not off with injuries as often, so far.

.edit/ps.: But I like ur arguments too. Very solid. Aussie April fools. Good one.

[moiso]

I keep trying to see the athleticism that some of you guys are talking about and I just don't see it.  To me his highlights look nothing like Timelord's and even guys like Kanter seem to move better.  Moses gets things done because of his size but when I look at his highlights for athleticism it looks like his legs are moving in slow motion and then sometimes he only gets a couple inches off the ground when he elevates in traffic.  I'm happy to have Moses Brown but to me he's closer to the stiff side than the athletic side.

[pearljammer10]

Moses was a throw in to balance out some minor details around Kemba and a first for Horford.

There’s a 10% chance Moses becomes a starter in the league, a 20% chance he has 5 years as a rotation guy, and a 70% chance he’s a 11th/12th man or worse for his career.

How have you come to these random numbers? Given he literally just spent a season as a starter at 21 years old, I think they're a bit ludicrous. A Tristan Thompson like career is pretty reasonable to project

So is a career like Jerome Moiso’s.

Given his most recent season was twice as good as Moiso's best, and Moiso was older as a rookie than Moses Brown is now, I don't think so. Continue with the irrational pessimism though

I’m just being realistic against the irrational clownism of this board.

[Vermont Green]

I don't get all the worrying over Moses Brown.  As said above, the main trade was Kemba for Horford and save a bunch of money.  The saved money gives us flexibility to be able to consider a S&T acquisition while still dealing with the hard cap.  There was no option for this without the trade.

Moses Brown comes to us in exchange for the #16 pick (I am ignoring the 2nd round picks).  This transaction will also save on the cap (about $1M).  I am sure there will be a long running "what if" debate about this pick but I think it is pretty clear that a player coming off a fairly nice NBA season is likely to contribute more to the Celtics over the next couple of seasons than a rookie would.  No way to know for sure, but this me, this is a reasonable play by the Celtics.

Now as to Moses Brown's ceiling, we know that at age 21, he played 43 games, started 32 and put up 8.6 pts and 8.9 rebs.  To me, that says the floor is 9 pts/9 Rebs, some are saying that is the ceiling.  Rob Williams, who is 6 inches smaller and 2 years older, has not produced that.  Tristan's best season was 12 pts/10 rebs but was around the 9/9 mark most of his career (in generally more minutes).

I believe that Moses Brown is going to be a useful player for us next season.  I also believe that Thompson and/or Williams will be traded.  More useful than Kornet, GWill, Ojeleye, and possibly even more than RWill and Thompson.

[Surferdad]

Correction in bold:

I don't get all the worrying over Moses Brown.  As said above, the main trade was Kemba for Horford and save a bunch of money.  The saved money gives us flexibility to be able to consider a S&T acquisition while still dealing with the hard cap.  There was no option for this without the trade.

Moses Brown comes to us along with a chance to avoid paying a 1st round contract in exchange for the #16 pick (I am ignoring the 2nd round picks).  This transaction will also save on the cap (about $1M).  I am sure there will be a long running "what if" debate about this pick but I think it is pretty clear that a player coming off a fairly nice NBA season is likely to contribute more to the Celtics over the next couple of seasons than a rookie would.  No way to know for sure, but this me, this is a reasonable play by the Celtics.

Now as to Moses Brown's ceiling, we know that at age 21, he played 43 games, started 32 and put up 8.6 pts and 8.9 rebs.  To me, that says the floor is 9 pts/9 Rebs, some are saying that is the ceiling.  Rob Williams, who is 6 inches smaller and 2 years older, has not produced that.  Tristan's best season was 12 pts/10 rebs but was around the 9/9 mark most of his career (in generally more minutes).

I believe that Moses Brown is going to be a useful player for us next season.  I also believe that Thompson and/or Williams will be traded.

Avoiding that 1st rounder contract is a bonus in this deal that is mostly ignored in discussing this trade.  Some people are comparing Moses Brown to what could be available at #16, but that's not the whole story.  In my opinion, the better comp is what could be available at #16 as compared to Aaron Nesmith.  Celtics simply didn't need another young guy with a 3-year guaranteed $30M 1st round contract.
https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2020/11/22/2020-21-nba-rookie-scale-contract-first-round-picks/

[Vermont Green]

Correction in bold:

I don't get all the worrying over Moses Brown.  As said above, the main trade was Kemba for Horford and save a bunch of money.  The saved money gives us flexibility to be able to consider a S&T acquisition while still dealing with the hard cap.  There was no option for this without the trade.

Moses Brown comes to us along with a chance to avoid paying a 1st round contract in exchange for the #16 pick (I am ignoring the 2nd round picks).  This transaction will also save on the cap (about $1M).  I am sure there will be a long running "what if" debate about this pick but I think it is pretty clear that a player coming off a fairly nice NBA season is likely to contribute more to the Celtics over the next couple of seasons than a rookie would.  No way to know for sure, but this me, this is a reasonable play by the Celtics.

Now as to Moses Brown's ceiling, we know that at age 21, he played 43 games, started 32 and put up 8.6 pts and 8.9 rebs.  To me, that says the floor is 9 pts/9 Rebs, some are saying that is the ceiling.  Rob Williams, who is 6 inches smaller and 2 years older, has not produced that.  Tristan's best season was 12 pts/10 rebs but was around the 9/9 mark most of his career (in generally more minutes).

I believe that Moses Brown is going to be a useful player for us next season.  I also believe that Thompson and/or Williams will be traded.

Avoiding that 1st rounder contract is a bonus in this deal that is mostly ignored in discussing this trade.  Some people are comparing Moses Brown to what could be available at #16, but that's not the whole story.  In my opinion, the better comp is what could be available at #16 as compared to Aaron Nesmith.  Celtics simply didn't need another young guy with a 3-year guaranteed $30M 1st round contract.
https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2020/11/22/2020-21-nba-rookie-scale-contract-first-round-picks/

The projected first year for the #16 pick for 2021/22 is about $2.7M.  It goes up from there but it isn't going to be anywhere near $30M, even in 5 years, much less 3 years, but we agree, this swap saves us some money (and I thought I said that).

[jambr380]

Correction in bold:

I don't get all the worrying over Moses Brown.  As said above, the main trade was Kemba for Horford and save a bunch of money.  The saved money gives us flexibility to be able to consider a S&T acquisition while still dealing with the hard cap.  There was no option for this without the trade.

Moses Brown comes to us along with a chance to avoid paying a 1st round contract in exchange for the #16 pick (I am ignoring the 2nd round picks).  This transaction will also save on the cap (about $1M).  I am sure there will be a long running "what if" debate about this pick but I think it is pretty clear that a player coming off a fairly nice NBA season is likely to contribute more to the Celtics over the next couple of seasons than a rookie would.  No way to know for sure, but this me, this is a reasonable play by the Celtics.

Now as to Moses Brown's ceiling, we know that at age 21, he played 43 games, started 32 and put up 8.6 pts and 8.9 rebs.  To me, that says the floor is 9 pts/9 Rebs, some are saying that is the ceiling.  Rob Williams, who is 6 inches smaller and 2 years older, has not produced that.  Tristan's best season was 12 pts/10 rebs but was around the 9/9 mark most of his career (in generally more minutes).

I believe that Moses Brown is going to be a useful player for us next season.  I also believe that Thompson and/or Williams will be traded.

Avoiding that 1st rounder contract is a bonus in this deal that is mostly ignored in discussing this trade.  Some people are comparing Moses Brown to what could be available at #16, but that's not the whole story.  In my opinion, the better comp is what could be available at #16 as compared to Aaron Nesmith.  Celtics simply didn't need another young guy with a 3-year guaranteed $30M 1st round contract.
https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2020/11/22/2020-21-nba-rookie-scale-contract-first-round-picks/

Not sure where you are getting $30M from. By your chart, the #16 pick is slated for 3yrs/$8M (and essentially 8-9 yrs of control). Teams don't typically trade mid-round 1sts just to get out of the guaranteed money. That #16 pick is worth 2-3 later 1sts and is being vastly underrated as a throw-in for the Kemba/Horford deal.

I am very much hopeful that Moses will become a player for us, but I am not going to pretend he had #16 value. Typically, we would have to include a pick in the #22-26 range to get off of Kemba, but our pick was 'so good' that OKC needed to contribute more. Let's hope this really works out for us. Moses is an intriguing prospect for sure - still lots of potential there.

[gouki88]

Moses was a throw in to balance out some minor details around Kemba and a first for Horford.

There’s a 10% chance Moses becomes a starter in the league, a 20% chance he has 5 years as a rotation guy, and a 70% chance he’s a 11th/12th man or worse for his career.

How have you come to these random numbers? Given he literally just spent a season as a starter at 21 years old, I think they're a bit ludicrous. A Tristan Thompson like career is pretty reasonable to project

So is a career like Jerome Moiso’s.

Given his most recent season was twice as good as Moiso's best, and Moiso was older as a rookie than Moses Brown is now, I don't think so. Continue with the irrational pessimism though

I’m just being realistic against the irrational clownism of this board.

I’m not quite sure you’re using that word correctly when it’s only a few posts removed from saying it’s reasonable to project a Moiso-like career. That is neither reasonable nor realistic

[Roy H.]

I am very much hopeful that Moses will become a player for us, but I am not going to pretend he had #16 value.

He doesn’t have #16 value, but he does have a higher floor, and he’s likely to contribute more the next two years than a rookie would. 

Like you, I don’t see Moses as the main part of the deal.  I think that fox dreaming of him being a full-time starter are probably a good deal too optimistic.  But, there’s nothing wrong with enthusiasm

[Moranis]

The one thing I will say is Moses Brown could definitely be Henry Sims.  After Philly acquired Sims (in his 2nd year), he started 25 of 26 games played 27.2 mpg and averaged 11.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.8 apg without turning it over much and shooting 48.9% from the field.  The next year for Philly he started 32 of 73 games, playing just 19.3 mpg and his numbers dropped to 8/5/1.1.  He played only 14 more games in his career after that. 

Sometimes guys sort of hit lightening in the bottle getting big minutes on a bad team and then the rest of the league just catches up to them and they fade away into the sunset.  Brown is younger now than Sims was as a rookie, so he definitely has that setting him apart from Sims, but there certainly is no guarantee that Brown has staying power. 

I do like Brown, though I also liked Sims, so it is all a crap shoot in the end.

[Celtics4ever]

I think he will be a nice backup Center.  He is not a world beater.    But he is Rob insurance and has size at a nice cost controlled level.   He does not need the ball for his game which is nice for us.  I do not think he is garbage, but he what he is folks.

He doesn’t have #16 value, but he does have a higher floor, and he’s likely to contribute more the next two years than a rookie would. 

He is less a crap shoot than the 16th pick because he has proven he can play at the NBA level.   Here all the odds of a 16th player contributing

STAR               5%    
SOLID           25%    
ROLE PLAYER 30%    
DEEP BUS      25%    
BUST              15%    

Here are average productions of the 16th pick
MIN  18.2    
PPG    7.2    
RPG    2.8    
APG   1.6    
PIE   11.7

Moses Brown's Stats
MIN  21.4
PPG    8.6
RPG    8.9
APG    0.2
PIE   11.4

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Now he won't get those minutes here most likely.   But as he can see he can rebound at a good clip most likely better than anyone we could pick there more than likely.  The higher floor is the real deal.

[BitterJim]

I think it's a mistake to compare Moses Brown directly to the 1st we included, and we should instead compare him to what OKC would have given us instead. The first is too much for a straight Horford/Kemba swap, but a team with as many picks as OKC has is not going to want a second rounder or two instead (plus Presti clearly values first rounders highly), so they'll ask for a swap of a first for lesser value (seconds or a player). It was likely more of a choice between Moses Brown and a second rounder or two, in which case Brown is really a no brainer. He has at least proved that he can play in the NBA, which is 10x more than most 2nd rounders.

When exactly did the Kemba for Horford trade become the ‘Moses Brown trade’?

Right after the Josh Beckett trade became the Nick Punto trade.

It kind of reminds me of the D.J. White/MarShon Brooks trade

[Vermont Green]

Now he won't get those minutes here most likely.   But as he can see he can rebound at a good clip most likely better than anyone we could pick there more than likely.  The higher floor is the real deal.

I agree with the stats analysis, comparing what Moses Brown has already done in the league to an "average" 16th pick.  But to the question about getting minutes, as it stands now, with Horford, Thompson, Williams and Brown all on the roster, it does not seem like there are enough minutes to go around and certainly not for Brown to get 20+.  I think it is likely that Thompson is traded though and maybe Williams also.  Then the minutes landscape changes quite a bit.

Speculating on minutes based on the current roster is probably premature.  When all moves are complete and the final roster is set, I would not be surprised if Moses Brown is in position to earn up to 24 min per game, based on what he did last season as a starter and with the expectation that he will have improved some (as most 21 year old players do from season to season).