Poll: Fire Ainge

[PhoSita]

For those who think Ainge should be fired/retire: Do you think the Celtics should retain Zarren? How much of the Celtics situation do you attribute to Ainge vs. Zarren? Do you hope Wyc stays as controlling owner? How much of the current situation do you attribute to Wyc vs. Ainge/Zarren?

I'm obviously not in that camp, but if Ainge were gone for some reason, I'd be trying to convince Masai Ujiri to leave Toronto.

[NKY fan]

For those who think Ainge should be fired/retire: Do you think the Celtics should retain Zarren? How much of the Celtics situation do you attribute to Ainge vs. Zarren? Do you hope Wyc stays as controlling owner? How much of the current situation do you attribute to Wyc vs. Ainge/Zarren?

I’m indifferent on Ainge being fired. Probably will be cold to do so. But listening more and more about Wycs capabilities - I want him to pocket his capital gains of 1000% by selling the Celtics to an owner that can hang with the big boys like Balmer and Tsai. Jeff bezos anyone? Lol

[Moranis]

Interesting article by the Ringer today on Dannys drafting success:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/3/2/22308624/danny-ainge-boston-celtics

kind of confirms what I was preaching for the last 3 years that he did all this wheeling and dealing for not much in terms of improving the team. He did save Wyc a ton of $$$ though.

Danny fares very unfavorably compared with Connely, RC Bufford and Morey when it comes to drafting.
I still don't have a good explanation of why he insists on keep drafting these late picks given his draft record and that their expected win shares during their first 4 years are so low.

The methodology they used is incredibly flawed.  JB was a draft miss per their criteria.

Methodology is ok. Especially if you evaluate win now teams. The takeaway is - if you are competing in the nba but not tanking- you want to limit the number of rookies ( especially late draft positions) on your team because they only contribute to winning if they way overperform their draft position.
You draft 20 late picks and law of averages kicks in. You achieve a whole bunch of nothing.
 It’s interesting that average draft position for Ainge in the decade was at the top compared to other teams.
In other words you have to be really confident in your abilities to draft talent to justify making all these late picks and prove it was the right decision.

And the deeper you go in the draft, while you might get players outperforming their draft slot, it doesn't mean they are actually any good either since you expect less as you go deeper into the draft.  A bust at 5 could still be a lot better player than a homerun at 25.  I mean take 2007, Jeff Green was the 5th pick.  He has had a nice career, but I think you'd expect more from the 5th pick in the draft, while in that same draft Aaron Brooks went 26th and Aaron Afflalo when 27th.  Brooks and Afflalo were an incredible value for a 26th and 27th pick, but Green was still the better player.   

So adding a bunch of late 1st round picks isn't going to actually yield much on the court even if they are great picks, except in the uber-rare Jimmy Butler type situations (and he took years to develop). 

[PhoSita]

For those who think Ainge should be fired/retire: Do you think the Celtics should retain Zarren? How much of the Celtics situation do you attribute to Ainge vs. Zarren? Do you hope Wyc stays as controlling owner? How much of the current situation do you attribute to Wyc vs. Ainge/Zarren?

I’m indifferent on Ainge being fired. Probably will be cold to do so. But listening more and more about Wycs capabilities - I want him to pocket his capital gains of 1000% by selling the Celtics to an owner that can hang with the big boys like Balmer and Tsai. Jeff bezos anyone? Lol

considering the havoc that a truly bad owner can wreak on a team (see: NYK, Kings, etc), I hope Wyc et al remain in place for as long as possible.  you can fire a bad coach or a bad GM.  if your owner is bad, you're basically toast until the owner decides to sell.

[todd_days_41]

Ainge has not found a star in the later parts of the draft, e.g. Giannis, Gobert, Draymond, Jokic, Siakam, Adebayo, etc.

Now, to be clear, there isn't a guy like that in every draft, and even when there is, usually at least half the teams in the league pass on the guy before he's drafted.  By definition that's how a guy ends up being a steal.  So it's not some black mark that Ainge hasn't found one.

At the same time, you could argue that finding a major hidden gem like that is the one remaining avenue the Celts have to go from a good-not-great team to one of the premier teams in the league, now that their young stars are on their second contracts and the cap sheet looks to be pretty full-up for the foreseeable future.  The fact that Ainge hasn't managed to do it in a long time is at least somewhat concerning.

Again, in what seems like 1,000 swings of the bat in his 17 years, the only Ainge draft pick to make a single All-Star game is Rondo.

That changed last week when two (great) picks he made got in. But those were both Top 3 picks -- the only Top 3 picks he's ever made.

[gift]

Interesting article by the Ringer today on Dannys drafting success:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/3/2/22308624/danny-ainge-boston-celtics

kind of confirms what I was preaching for the last 3 years that he did all this wheeling and dealing for not much in terms of improving the team. He did save Wyc a ton of $$$ though.

Danny fares very unfavorably compared with Connely, RC Bufford and Morey when it comes to drafting.
I still don't have a good explanation of why he insists on keep drafting these late picks given his draft record and that their expected win shares during their first 4 years are so low.

The methodology they used is incredibly flawed.  JB was a draft miss per their criteria.

Methodology is ok. Especially if you evaluate win now teams. The takeaway is - if you are competing in the nba but not tanking- you want to limit the number of rookies ( especially late draft positions) on your team because they only contribute to winning if they way overperform their draft position.
You draft 20 late picks and law of averages kicks in. You achieve a whole bunch of nothing.
 It’s interesting that average draft position for Ainge in the decade was at the top compared to other teams.
In other words you have to be really confident in your abilities to draft talent to justify making all these late picks and prove it was the right decision.

And the deeper you go in the draft, while you might get players outperforming their draft slot, it doesn't mean they are actually any good either since you expect less as you go deeper into the draft.  A bust at 5 could still be a lot better player than a homerun at 25.  I mean take 2007, Jeff Green was the 5th pick.  He has had a nice career, but I think you'd expect more from the 5th pick in the draft, while in that same draft Aaron Brooks went 26th and Aaron Afflalo when 27th.  Brooks and Afflalo were an incredible value for a 26th and 27th pick, but Green was still the better player.   

So adding a bunch of late 1st round picks isn't going to actually yield much on the court even if they are great picks, except in the uber-rare Jimmy Butler type situations (and he took years to develop).

It's fine to fill roster spots 8-13 with those cost-controlled assets. The problem is when you need to depend on them to fill roster spots 4-8. When your stars walk and you still have max guys on your roster, those young guys have to move up because you can't replace them with free agents with the same roster flexibility.

The Celtics were in such a weird position where they were attracting top free agents/trading for premier talents while simultaneously drafting high lottery picks. At the time it seemed perfect and it was a great position. But you end up in a spot where you have to make decisions that are not necessarily straight forward.

In some ways the team needs to recover from 'too much talent' in that they lost guys but still have too much to rebuild, yet the expectations of winning are still higher than they probably should be and there is still a clear 'core' left behind. Number 1 priority right now should be to establish flexibility around Tatum/Brown.

[liam]

For those who think Ainge should be fired/retire: Do you think the Celtics should retain Zarren? How much of the Celtics situation do you attribute to Ainge vs. Zarren? Do you hope Wyc stays as controlling owner? How much of the current situation do you attribute to Wyc vs. Ainge/Zarren?

I’m indifferent on Ainge being fired. Probably will be cold to do so. But listening more and more about Wycs capabilities - I want him to pocket his capital gains of 1000% by selling the Celtics to an owner that can hang with the big boys like Balmer and Tsai. Jeff bezos anyone? Lol

considering the havoc that a truly bad owner can wreak on a team (see: NYK, Kings, etc), I hope Wyc et al remain in place for as long as possible.  you can fire a bad coach or a bad GM.  if your owner is bad, you're basically toast until the owner decides to sell.

For Celtics fans John Y. Brown and Paul Gaston.

[NKY fan]

For those who think Ainge should be fired/retire: Do you think the Celtics should retain Zarren? How much of the Celtics situation do you attribute to Ainge vs. Zarren? Do you hope Wyc stays as controlling owner? How much of the current situation do you attribute to Wyc vs. Ainge/Zarren?

I’m indifferent on Ainge being fired. Probably will be cold to do so. But listening more and more about Wycs capabilities - I want him to pocket his capital gains of 1000% by selling the Celtics to an owner that can hang with the big boys like Balmer and Tsai. Jeff bezos anyone? Lol

considering the havoc that a truly bad owner can wreak on a team (see: NYK, Kings, etc), I hope Wyc et al remain in place for as long as possible.  you can fire a bad coach or a bad GM.  if your owner is bad, you're basically toast until the owner decides to sell.

For Celtics fans John Y. Brown and Paul Gaston.

Well you can not expect an owner to be bad because he is filthy rich. The popular opinion on Balmer is that he is the best owner ever despite being super rich.

[MikeB12]

Amazing how many posters think they are geniuses and want to fire everyone...let's fire Stevens, let's fire Ainge...

Some posters think it is easy to always know who to draft and how to make great trades to get superstars.

I assume those individuals are multi-millionaries due to their fantastic investments in the stock market.

 

[jambr380]

Ainge has not found a star in the later parts of the draft, e.g. Giannis, Gobert, Draymond, Jokic, Siakam, Adebayo, etc.

Now, to be clear, there isn't a guy like that in every draft, and even when there is, usually at least half the teams in the league pass on the guy before he's drafted.  By definition that's how a guy ends up being a steal.  So it's not some black mark that Ainge hasn't found one.

At the same time, you could argue that finding a major hidden gem like that is the one remaining avenue the Celts have to go from a good-not-great team to one of the premier teams in the league, now that their young stars are on their second contracts and the cap sheet looks to be pretty full-up for the foreseeable future.  The fact that Ainge hasn't managed to do it in a long time is at least somewhat concerning.

Again, in what seems like 1,000 swings of the bat in his 17 years, the only Ainge draft pick to make a single All-Star game is Rondo.

That changed last week when two (great) picks he made got in. But those were both Top 3 picks -- the only Top 3 picks he's ever made.

I'm confused by your 2nd paragraph. You do realize Tatum made the All-Star game (and All-NBA) last year, right? I know it doesn't change your main point, but Tatum is well on his way to superstardom. I posit that it is much more important that he got those picks right (Bender or Jackson anybody?) than the late ones.

Also (this is more in response to pho), Rondo was one of those ultra-rare late round picks. Danny can still probably milk that for a few more years because of how rare that is. I also don't think the door should be completely shut on the potential that is still on the roster. If TL keeps improving, he could easily turn into another monster steal. He seemingly has a limitless ceiling.

[PhoSita]

Ainge has not found a star in the later parts of the draft, e.g. Giannis, Gobert, Draymond, Jokic, Siakam, Adebayo, etc.

Now, to be clear, there isn't a guy like that in every draft, and even when there is, usually at least half the teams in the league pass on the guy before he's drafted.  By definition that's how a guy ends up being a steal.  So it's not some black mark that Ainge hasn't found one.

At the same time, you could argue that finding a major hidden gem like that is the one remaining avenue the Celts have to go from a good-not-great team to one of the premier teams in the league, now that their young stars are on their second contracts and the cap sheet looks to be pretty full-up for the foreseeable future.  The fact that Ainge hasn't managed to do it in a long time is at least somewhat concerning.

Again, in what seems like 1,000 swings of the bat in his 17 years, the only Ainge draft pick to make a single All-Star game is Rondo.

That changed last week when two (great) picks he made got in. But those were both Top 3 picks -- the only Top 3 picks he's ever made.

How many GMs have more than 3 All-Stars to their name?  You put it the way you did and it sounds [dang]ing, but I would guess that it's not often a GM is able to keep his job long enough to select more than one or two All-Stars.

[BitterJim]

Ainge has not found a star in the later parts of the draft, e.g. Giannis, Gobert, Draymond, Jokic, Siakam, Adebayo, etc.

Now, to be clear, there isn't a guy like that in every draft, and even when there is, usually at least half the teams in the league pass on the guy before he's drafted.  By definition that's how a guy ends up being a steal.  So it's not some black mark that Ainge hasn't found one.

At the same time, you could argue that finding a major hidden gem like that is the one remaining avenue the Celts have to go from a good-not-great team to one of the premier teams in the league, now that their young stars are on their second contracts and the cap sheet looks to be pretty full-up for the foreseeable future.  The fact that Ainge hasn't managed to do it in a long time is at least somewhat concerning.

Again, in what seems like 1,000 swings of the bat in his 17 years, the only Ainge draft pick to make a single All-Star game is Rondo.

That changed last week when two (great) picks he made got in. But those were both Top 3 picks -- the only Top 3 picks he's ever made.

Are we just ignoring that Tatum was an All Star last year?

[todd_days_41]

Ainge has not found a star in the later parts of the draft, e.g. Giannis, Gobert, Draymond, Jokic, Siakam, Adebayo, etc.

Now, to be clear, there isn't a guy like that in every draft, and even when there is, usually at least half the teams in the league pass on the guy before he's drafted.  By definition that's how a guy ends up being a steal.  So it's not some black mark that Ainge hasn't found one.

At the same time, you could argue that finding a major hidden gem like that is the one remaining avenue the Celts have to go from a good-not-great team to one of the premier teams in the league, now that their young stars are on their second contracts and the cap sheet looks to be pretty full-up for the foreseeable future.  The fact that Ainge hasn't managed to do it in a long time is at least somewhat concerning.

Again, in what seems like 1,000 swings of the bat in his 17 years, the only Ainge draft pick to make a single All-Star game is Rondo.

That changed last week when two (great) picks he made got in. But those were both Top 3 picks -- the only Top 3 picks he's ever made.

Are we just ignoring that Tatum was an All Star last year?

Yep I was! Sorry.

Point is essentially the same. Ainge hasn't struck gold much (especially outside Top 3 picks).

[NKY fan]

For those who think Ainge should be fired/retire: Do you think the Celtics should retain Zarren? How much of the Celtics situation do you attribute to Ainge vs. Zarren? Do you hope Wyc stays as controlling owner? How much of the current situation do you attribute to Wyc vs. Ainge/Zarren?

I’m indifferent on Ainge being fired. Probably will be cold to do so. But listening more and more about Wycs capabilities - I want him to pocket his capital gains of 1000% by selling the Celtics to an owner that can hang with the big boys like Balmer and Tsai. Jeff bezos anyone? Lol

considering the havoc that a truly bad owner can wreak on a team (see: NYK, Kings, etc), I hope Wyc et al remain in place for as long as possible.  you can fire a bad coach or a bad GM.  if your owner is bad, you're basically toast until the owner decides to sell.

One more thing I wanted to add on good owner bad owner debate:
If Dolan (as bad as he is) was the owner of the OKC during Durant years they would most likely have 1 or more titles. He wouldn’t have hesitated to pay both Harden and Ibaka not have to choose one.
So imagine by the ECF this year Langford and Timelord both break out - Romeo - harden like and Timelord - Gobert like... do we trade one of the two for pennies on the dollar because we can’t afford to pay both?
I want that to be an easy decision for the Celtics owners and pay both.

[GreenlyGreeny]

Interesting article by the Ringer today on Dannys drafting success:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/3/2/22308624/danny-ainge-boston-celtics

kind of confirms what I was preaching for the last 3 years that he did all this wheeling and dealing for not much in terms of improving the team. He did save Wyc a ton of $$$ though.

Danny fares very unfavorably compared with Connely, RC Bufford and Morey when it comes to drafting.
I still don't have a good explanation of why he insists on keep drafting these late picks given his draft record and that their expected win shares during their first 4 years are so low.

The financial constraints are not to be underestimated. Wyc lacks the deep pockets/tolerance of luxury taxes of certain wealthier owners.

If the owner of a legendary NBA team cannot afford any luxury tax, a legendary NBA franchise is a luxury they cannot afford.