Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[konkmv]

Keep the picks... Davis is great but gets injured a lot... i would like to notice 2 things... if the team reaches the final and win it do you make the trade? If a miracle happens and sac pick conveys as second or third and get all the other pics why spend it all for davies... let them lower the price first

[GreenShooter]

Also to add.

If it still takes 2 of tatum brown smart then tatum is off the table and a pick is also off thr table. Imo.

Brown/smart/mem pick/sac pick/clipper pick/boston 2020 first

They want tatum then they dont get smart or brown.

Tatum/rw3/yabs/4 picks this year


Honestly, bith of those trades are offering too much for a potential single year of a player.

Kawhi went for demar, poeltl and a late first rounder. And Kawhi is a superior player who has shown he can single handedly win.  Davis has not shown that much. Davis is not the best 2 way player in the league. Davis is not a finals mvp

Yeah, ok. Toronto really sucked without Kawhi. They chocked in the playoffs but kicked a$$ with DeMar. Kawhi is one of my favorite players but you are slighting that Toronto has done nothing without Kawhi. Put the same team around Davis and see if the finish in the lottery. Kawhi is FAR from being a superior player. Sorry, you are wrong about this.

[JBcat]

Also to add.

If it still takes 2 of tatum brown smart then tatum is off the table and a pick is also off thr table. Imo.

Brown/smart/mem pick/sac pick/clipper pick/boston 2020 first

They want tatum then they dont get smart or brown.

Tatum/rw3/yabs/4 picks this year


Honestly, bith of those trades are offering too much for a potential single year of a player.

Kawhi went for demar, poeltl and a late first rounder. And Kawhi is a superior player who has shown he can single handedly win.  Davis has not shown that much. Davis is not the best 2 way player in the league. Davis is not a finals mvp

Yeah, ok. Toronto really sucked without Kawhi. They chocked in the playoffs but kicked a$$ with DeMar. Kawhi is one of my favorite players but you are slighting that Toronto has done nothing without Kawhi. Put the same team around Davis and see if the finish in the lottery. Kawhi is FAR from being a superior player. Sorry, you are wrong about this.

For what it’s worth I checked out Bill Simmons NBA trade value article in February, and Derozen came in at 37, Olidipo at 21, and Tatum at 18 if you want to compare the Kawhi and George deals.  Of course Oladipo was probably much lower before being traded. 

Tatum is already a good player, and the allure of his potential of being something more given his age carries a lot of weight.

A lot of it comes down to preference too.  If you want to win like the Spurs you probably prefer Derozan, and if you want to build for the future like the Pelicans probably want to do Tatum is the way to go.

[gouki88]

Also to add.

If it still takes 2 of tatum brown smart then tatum is off the table and a pick is also off thr table. Imo.

Brown/smart/mem pick/sac pick/clipper pick/boston 2020 first

They want tatum then they dont get smart or brown.

Tatum/rw3/yabs/4 picks this year


Honestly, bith of those trades are offering too much for a potential single year of a player.

Kawhi went for demar, poeltl and a late first rounder. And Kawhi is a superior player who has shown he can single handedly win.  Davis has not shown that much. Davis is not the best 2 way player in the league. Davis is not a finals mvp

Sorry, but are you saying Kawhi won single-handedly on the Spurs? With Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Pop? Or on the Raptors? With 5x All-Star Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Ibaka and now Marc Gasol

[Silky]

Also to add.

If it still takes 2 of tatum brown smart then tatum is off the table and a pick is also off thr table. Imo.

Brown/smart/mem pick/sac pick/clipper pick/boston 2020 first

They want tatum then they dont get smart or brown.

Tatum/rw3/yabs/4 picks this year


Honestly, bith of those trades are offering too much for a potential single year of a player.

Kawhi went for demar, poeltl and a late first rounder. And Kawhi is a superior player who has shown he can single handedly win.  Davis has not shown that much. Davis is not the best 2 way player in the league. Davis is not a finals mvp

Yeah, ok. Toronto really sucked without Kawhi. They chocked in the playoffs but kicked a$$ with DeMar. Kawhi is one of my favorite players but you are slighting that Toronto has done nothing without Kawhi. Put the same team around Davis and see if the finish in the lottery. Kawhi is FAR from being a superior player. Sorry, you are wrong about this.

I cannot see how anyone would agree with your assessment that kawhi is not superior to davis.

And I can also confidently say that if toronto made the exact same trade but for davis instead of Kawhi they would not has a good a record as they currently do.

Kawhi is easily a top 2 or 3 player in the world. Easily.
And Kawhi plays a positiin that can have a bigger impact on the game.

There is no arguing that.

Davis is top 10.

[Silky]

Also to add.

If it still takes 2 of tatum brown smart then tatum is off the table and a pick is also off thr table. Imo.

Brown/smart/mem pick/sac pick/clipper pick/boston 2020 first

They want tatum then they dont get smart or brown.

Tatum/rw3/yabs/4 picks this year


Honestly, bith of those trades are offering too much for a potential single year of a player.

Kawhi went for demar, poeltl and a late first rounder. And Kawhi is a superior player who has shown he can single handedly win.  Davis has not shown that much. Davis is not the best 2 way player in the league. Davis is not a finals mvp

Sorry, but are you saying Kawhi won single-handedly on the Spurs? With Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Pop? Or on the Raptors? With 5x All-Star Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Ibaka and now Marc Gasol

Kawhi was singlehandedly beating the warriors. Kawhi can take over a game and win it. Has shown he can do that. The examples are ample and easy to find.

There has been far fewer instances of 5 minutes left in the 4th of davis asserting his dominancd on both ends of the court.

That isnt a knock against davis...its alor harder to do so as a bigman.

[keevsnick]

Well with Memphis is in 9th by half a game (1 less loss than NO and WAS), but its been a frustrating less couple of days. Every one of the six-nine teams lost Wednesday, but  there were some close games in there. And then today NO manages to lose to Phoenix. If things hold through the lottery the pick will convey, a huge shame given the loss of trade value that will result. Hard to see any path to not including Jayson Tatum in an AD trade in that scenario (probably already the case), and if we dont get AD then it will be very hard to manage around having four first round picks and no real way to have all those rookie on the team next year. Not to mention the 9th pick in a weak draft just isnt as high upside as a potential unprotected pick in 2021.

Again. The pick loses Zero value. None.

Now it holds more value because it is actual salary that can be used in a deal.

Dont think for 1 second NOP will not be happy ending the season with potenial of 5 first round picks plus a player.

I don't know how else to say it, but you are just wrong about this. The number nine pick this year is just not as valuable as a POTENTIAL top 5 pick in two years.

For everyone saying things like "that pick isnt guaranteed to be top 5" or "It may end up like the Kings pick." I get all that. But you seriously underselling how valuable the top picks in a draft are, even potential top picks. There are really only two draft pics in the entire league out there right now with that kind upside. The MEM pick, and the MIA21 pick. Everything else is protected or would be devalued in a star trade since the acquiring team would be getting much better. Don't get me wrong, the number 9 pick isn't a disaster. But I guarantee you teams dont view that pick as highly as they would if the obligation just rolls over.

As for the ability to use the salary in a trade, that means almost nothing as well. With the three picks we already have, Tatum, Yabu and Williams we are right at the line required salary wise anyway for an AD trade. If we need to include Smart or Brown then the additional money matters literally not all. Let me put this all another way. If you are trading AD you are going to lose the trade, but you at least want to maximize your chances to get a star. Getting Tatum is one way to do that,  getting a potential top five pick is another way. YOU WANT THAT CHANCE, EVEN IF IT IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE. Its the only way the trade isnt a disaster for you.

[KGs Knee]

Well with Memphis is in 9th by half a game (1 less loss than NO and WAS), but its been a frustrating less couple of days. Every one of the six-nine teams lost Wednesday, but  there were some close games in there. And then today NO manages to lose to Phoenix. If things hold through the lottery the pick will convey, a huge shame given the loss of trade value that will result. Hard to see any path to not including Jayson Tatum in an AD trade in that scenario (probably already the case), and if we dont get AD then it will be very hard to manage around having four first round picks and no real way to have all those rookie on the team next year. Not to mention the 9th pick in a weak draft just isnt as high upside as a potential unprotected pick in 2021.

Again. The pick loses Zero value. None.

Now it holds more value because it is actual salary that can be used in a deal.

Dont think for 1 second NOP will not be happy ending the season with potenial of 5 first round picks plus a player.

I don't know how else to say it, but you are just wrong about this. The number nine pick this year is just not as valuable as a POTENTIAL top 5 pick in two years.

For everyone saying things like "that pick isnt guaranteed to be top 5" or "It may end up like the Kings pick." I get all that. But you seriously underselling how valuable the top picks in a draft are, even potential top picks. There are really only two draft pics in the entire league out there right now with that kind upside. The MEM pick, and the MIA21 pick. Everything else is protected or would be devalued in a star trade since the acquiring team would be getting much better. Don't get me wrong, the number 9 pick isn't a disaster. But I guarantee you teams dont view that pick as highly as they would if the obligation just rolls over.

As for the ability to use the salary in a trade, that means almost nothing as well. With the three picks we already have, Tatum, Yabu and Williams we are right at the line required salary wise anyway for an AD trade. If we need to include Smart or Brown then the additional money matters literally not all. Let me put this all another way. If you are trading AD you are going to lose the trade, but you at least want to maximize your chances to get a star. Getting Tatum is one way to do that,  getting a potential top five pick is another way. YOU WANT THAT CHANCE, EVEN IF IT IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE. Its the only way the trade isnt a disaster for you.

I'm not wrong, you're wrong!

[keevsnick]

Also to add.

If it still takes 2 of tatum brown smart then tatum is off the table and a pick is also off thr table. Imo.

Brown/smart/mem pick/sac pick/clipper pick/boston 2020 first

They want tatum then they dont get smart or brown.

Tatum/rw3/yabs/4 picks this year


Honestly, bith of those trades are offering too much for a potential single year of a player.

Kawhi went for demar, poeltl and a late first rounder. And Kawhi is a superior player who has shown he can single handedly win.  Davis has not shown that much. Davis is not the best 2 way player in the league. Davis is not a finals mvp

Sorry, but are you saying Kawhi won single-handedly on the Spurs? With Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Pop? Or on the Raptors? With 5x All-Star Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Ibaka and now Marc Gasol

Kawhi was singlehandedly beating the warriors. Kawhi can take over a game and win it. Has shown he can do that. The examples are ample and easy to find.

There has been far fewer instances of 5 minutes left in the 4th of davis asserting his dominancd on both ends of the court.

That isnt a knock against davis...its alor harder to do so as a bigman.

Kawhi maybe better, but its close and you can make a real argument Davis is better. Davis is also younger, and isnt coming off missing literally a whole season. You can also make the argument that Kawhi's tough to read nature scared teams off, and that Davis has so far given more hints that he would at least consider resigning wherever he went. Also, the Spurs clearly wanted win now pieces so its hard to now exactly what the equivalent haul of young guys is.

[MichiganAdam]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

[keevsnick]

Well with Memphis is in 9th by half a game (1 less loss than NO and WAS), but its been a frustrating less couple of days. Every one of the six-nine teams lost Wednesday, but  there were some close games in there. And then today NO manages to lose to Phoenix. If things hold through the lottery the pick will convey, a huge shame given the loss of trade value that will result. Hard to see any path to not including Jayson Tatum in an AD trade in that scenario (probably already the case), and if we dont get AD then it will be very hard to manage around having four first round picks and no real way to have all those rookie on the team next year. Not to mention the 9th pick in a weak draft just isnt as high upside as a potential unprotected pick in 2021.

Again. The pick loses Zero value. None.

Now it holds more value because it is actual salary that can be used in a deal.

Dont think for 1 second NOP will not be happy ending the season with potenial of 5 first round picks plus a player.

I don't know how else to say it, but you are just wrong about this. The number nine pick this year is just not as valuable as a POTENTIAL top 5 pick in two years.

For everyone saying things like "that pick isnt guaranteed to be top 5" or "It may end up like the Kings pick." I get all that. But you seriously underselling how valuable the top picks in a draft are, even potential top picks. There are really only two draft pics in the entire league out there right now with that kind upside. The MEM pick, and the MIA21 pick. Everything else is protected or would be devalued in a star trade since the acquiring team would be getting much better. Don't get me wrong, the number 9 pick isn't a disaster. But I guarantee you teams dont view that pick as highly as they would if the obligation just rolls over.

As for the ability to use the salary in a trade, that means almost nothing as well. With the three picks we already have, Tatum, Yabu and Williams we are right at the line required salary wise anyway for an AD trade. If we need to include Smart or Brown then the additional money matters literally not all. Let me put this all another way. If you are trading AD you are going to lose the trade, but you at least want to maximize your chances to get a star. Getting Tatum is one way to do that,  getting a potential top five pick is another way. YOU WANT THAT CHANCE, EVEN IF IT IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE. Its the only way the trade isnt a disaster for you.

I'm not wrong, you're wrong!

I often am, and I might very well be in this case. Who knows? But if a team is trying its best to give you one thing (number nine pick), over MAYBE having to give you something else (top five pick), its because that second thing is more valuable.

[keevsnick]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play. 

[rondofan1255]

If Memphis loses tomorrow to Dallas, suddenly teams 6 through 9 are all tied at 32 wins. Even as it is now, 7-8 are 32-48 while memphis is 32-47.

[Silky]

Well with Memphis is in 9th by half a game (1 less loss than NO and WAS), but its been a frustrating less couple of days. Every one of the six-nine teams lost Wednesday, but  there were some close games in there. And then today NO manages to lose to Phoenix. If things hold through the lottery the pick will convey, a huge shame given the loss of trade value that will result. Hard to see any path to not including Jayson Tatum in an AD trade in that scenario (probably already the case), and if we dont get AD then it will be very hard to manage around having four first round picks and no real way to have all those rookie on the team next year. Not to mention the 9th pick in a weak draft just isnt as high upside as a potential unprotected pick in 2021.

Again. The pick loses Zero value. None.

Now it holds more value because it is actual salary that can be used in a deal.

Dont think for 1 second NOP will not be happy ending the season with potenial of 5 first round picks plus a player.

I don't know how else to say it, but you are just wrong about this. The number nine pick this year is just not as valuable as a POTENTIAL top 5 pick in two years.

For everyone saying things like "that pick isnt guaranteed to be top 5" or "It may end up like the Kings pick." I get all that. But you seriously underselling how valuable the top picks in a draft are, even potential top picks. There are really only two draft pics in the entire league out there right now with that kind upside. The MEM pick, and the MIA21 pick. Everything else is protected or would be devalued in a star trade since the acquiring team would be getting much better. Don't get me wrong, the number 9 pick isn't a disaster. But I guarantee you teams dont view that pick as highly as they would if the obligation just rolls over.

As for the ability to use the salary in a trade, that means almost nothing as well. With the three picks we already have, Tatum, Yabu and Williams we are right at the line required salary wise anyway for an AD trade. If we need to include Smart or Brown then the additional money matters literally not all. Let me put this all another way. If you are trading AD you are going to lose the trade, but you at least want to maximize your chances to get a star. Getting Tatum is one way to do that,  getting a potential top five pick is another way. YOU WANT THAT CHANCE, EVEN IF IT IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE. Its the only way the trade isnt a disaster for you.

I'm not wrong, you're wrong!

I often am, and I might very well be in this case. Who knows? But if a team is trying its best to give you one thing (number nine pick), over MAYBE having to give you something else (top five pick), its because that second thing is more valuable.

Or they just want to get it over with.

For them there is little risk and all reward.

Perhaps they do poorly moving on, perhaps not, there is no definitive answer at this point, but removing all external obligations is better for the team, not necessarily because they dont believe they will improve but because it is one less thing to be oblidged to do.

[Silas]

A look at some past #9 picks...

2017 - Pick: Dennis Smith Jr., PG, N.C. State
2012 - Pick: Andre Drummond, C, UConn
2011 - Pick: Kemba Walker, PG, UConn
2010 - Pick: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler
2009 - Pick: Demar DeRozan, SG, USC
2002 - Amar’e Stoudemire
1998 - Dirk Nowitzki

I know the past doesn't mean a lot, however you never know...