I think we need to try to lock up Smart on a multi-year deal.
If he signs the QO, we keep him but probably only for a year. We don't keep his Bird Rights after this year (if he re-signs with QO), right?
No, we keep his bird rights. He'd just be unrestricted so we'd lose the right to match.
His value isn't going higher next season
So it will be his choice to stay on the team or not
And if he decide to leave, well i don't want a player who don't want to be here anyway
He'll have a much better opportunity to get paid next offseason. He'll be a UFA and teams will have significantly more cap space. We'll be focused on re-signing Irving and possibly Horford.
Could end up losing both Smart and Rozier.
He *might* get paid more.
First, he could get hurt. With his style of play and history that's a significant risk.
Second, he could plateau or even regress offensively. It'll be one more data point suggesting that he will never develop a quality 3pt shot or offensive game.
Third, there are more teams with cap room, but a lot more players will be free agents too, including a lot of guys who signed one-year contracts or QOs this year to chase the money next year. It's just simple math - higher cap room comes from a higher number of players without contracts.
So, there are a lot of variables that could mean signing something like a 4/40 deal this year is the wise choice. Including the value of a sure thing vs. uncertainty.