If any team thought Smart was worth $14MM, that team would have made an offer knowing that BOS would have been hard-pressed to match and stay out of the lux tax. Everyone knows what everybody else has to spend. It's not rocket science to the people who have to deal with cap issues as a big part of their job.
Don't assume that Smart's going to get a long-term offer from BOS either. The heart and soul of the team has a nice ring to it, but the heart, soul, and future of the Cs are the three UFAs they’ve acquired along with Tatum and Brown. Smart's not going to get the same minutes as last year and Danny may well go for someone who can spark the second unit instead.
I still think Danny's intends to re-sign Smart at a number that both sides can live with and that will keep the Cs out of the lux tax this year. Nonetheless, Danny will do what he thinks is in the Celtics' best interest and in Danny I trust a lot more than Smart and, especially, Smart's agent.
I only half agree with you. Teams that might have been interested in Smart, most notably Indiana, had the choice of making a reasonable offer that the Celtics might match, even if difficult for them. However, doing so would have tied the team’s negotiable cap space up until this Sunday, when other potential targets might have been long off the board. There’s a reason that all the major free agents that are left are restricted ones, and that’s because no one is going to sign those players until after the moratorium period is over in 10 hours. This year almost all the money has dried up, however.
I also feel Ainge is willing to match a Smart offer that takes the team reasonably into the tax. The Celtics rightfully believe they have a championship contender, and you don’t let an important, even if not most important, piece walk away because you’re worried about paying the repeater tax four years from now. The preference is of course to avoid that, but if Smart got his $14 million I really believe the team would match. Of course, this in itself helps to keep Smart from getting that offer, because no one wants to help Ainge sign Smart to a long-term deal.
We're far apart on our thinking about the Cs willingness to dip a toe into the luxury tax this year to sign Smart. There's no need to and the cost is prohibitive down the road because you're bound to get hit with an extra year of luxury tax at a substantial amount. You don't go into the tax for $3 or $4 million to keep Smart happy, especially if that's not the market for his talents.
Don't think the league has felt the full effect of the luxury tax system yet, but we can already see that OKC can cut Melo outright and save over $100 million. That's a sobering eye-opener of how the tax escalates.
A few of things:
Firstly, it’s very hard to predict four years into the future when you might care about the repeater tax. Does Irving leave next year? Does Horford (in 2019 or 2020?) Does Hayward fully recover? Losing any of those three will probably knock you below the tax. Furthermore, Horford and Hayward will both be hitting their 4th contract next time around — if you’ve been spending to put together a championship team, do either work with you to make certain their salaries don’t prevent the extension of another key contributor earlier in his career? And then there’s the possibility of a potential revenue spike coming in due to gambling revenues. If that spike comes 3-4 years from now, it can also alleviate the issue, either by taking the team below the tax or to an affordable level.
Additionally, let’s talk about market value. Firstly, I said that Ainge would likely be willing to match a contract of a higher amount than he’s willing to offer, even if it meant going into the tax. That is, in fact, market value. Secondly, market value this year and next year might not be the same. This year Smart will not get offers because Ainge has the right of first refusal, and teams are wary of giving Smart an offer that Ainge would match, because that means they’ve helped the Celtics resign Smart. Next year, no such right of first refusal will exist, at the same time a ton of teams will have cap room. His market value next year could be substantial, and getting something done this summer could allow you to keep him down the road. None of us know whether the Celtics truly want to keep him for many more years, but if they do, going a little higher this year is not bidding against yourself — it’s bidding against the existential threat posed by unrestricted free agency and next year’s cap space.
Finally, I’m going to reiterate this. If the Celtics truly think they have a team with a real chance to win the title (and from all info they do feel this, and outside observers seem to agree with this assessment that they should feel this way) you pay to keep that opportunity. It’s what the last 5 years have been about, to get to this point. You don’t bail on that because you’re worried about the luxury tax in four years. Not with all the uncertainty described above.
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Topic: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged - finalizing 4 year deal] (Read 179401 times)