Marcus Smart RFA [Merged - finalizing 4 year deal]

[The Oracle]

Hey Saltlover.  What are your thoughts on an unlikely bonus being included in Smart's contract?

Living up to your username, you correctly divined that I have thought about it.  In general I’m not a fan of giving bonuses that you’re kind of hoping a player won’t reach, since if he does reach them then you’re in the luxury tax.  It’d certainly be permissible — I just don’t think it’s a good practice.

If you could write in like $1.5 million in unlikely bonuses that are achievable, you could adjust at the trade deadline if they appear likely and an adjustment is necessary?  Maybe 3%, a finals bonus or possibly minutes related at like 1700?  A contract similar to Olynyk's as a template, maybe slightly less?

[saltlover]

Hey Saltlover.  What are your thoughts on an unlikely bonus being included in Smart's contract?

Living up to your username, you correctly divined that I have thought about it.  In general I’m not a fan of giving bonuses that you’re kind of hoping a player won’t reach, since if he does reach them then you’re in the luxury tax.  It’d certainly be permissible — I just don’t think it’s a good practice.

Responding to myself, if you set a really high threshold in year one, and then lowered it in future years, it might work.  For example, a 15% bonus this year if he’s DPOY (probably not happening), and then a 15% bonus in subsequent years if he’s all-Defense (could happen some years.).

[saltlover]

Hey Saltlover.  What are your thoughts on an unlikely bonus being included in Smart's contract?

Living up to your username, you correctly divined that I have thought about it.  In general I’m not a fan of giving bonuses that you’re kind of hoping a player won’t reach, since if he does reach them then you’re in the luxury tax.  It’d certainly be permissible — I just don’t think it’s a good practice.

If you could write in like $1.5 million in unlikely bonuses that are achievable, you could adjust at the trade deadline if they appear likely and an adjustment is necessary?  Maybe 3%, a finals bonus or possibly minutes related at like 1700?  A contract similar to Olynyk's as a template, maybe slightly less?

No, can’t do that.  You can’t adjust the contract and you certainly can’t game his minutes so as not to pay it.

[The Oracle]

Hey Saltlover.  What are your thoughts on an unlikely bonus being included in Smart's contract?

Living up to your username, you correctly divined that I have thought about it.  In general I’m not a fan of giving bonuses that you’re kind of hoping a player won’t reach, since if he does reach them then you’re in the luxury tax.  It’d certainly be permissible — I just don’t think it’s a good practice.

If you could write in like $1.5 million in unlikely bonuses that are achievable, you could adjust at the trade deadline if they appear likely and an adjustment is necessary?  Maybe 3%, a finals bonus or possibly minutes related at like 1700?  A contract similar to Olynyk's as a template, maybe slightly less?

No, can’t do that.  You can’t adjust the contract and you certainly can’t game his minutes so as not to pay it.

Sorry I wasn't suggesting rewriting Smart's contract, I was suggesting trading someone else to get the C's under the tax, if necessary.  It is not even for sure the C's would have to do anything as they may find a deal that gets them a few million below the luxury tax anyway.

[saltlover]

Hey Saltlover.  What are your thoughts on an unlikely bonus being included in Smart's contract?

Living up to your username, you correctly divined that I have thought about it.  In general I’m not a fan of giving bonuses that you’re kind of hoping a player won’t reach, since if he does reach them then you’re in the luxury tax.  It’d certainly be permissible — I just don’t think it’s a good practice.

If you could write in like $1.5 million in unlikely bonuses that are achievable, you could adjust at the trade deadline if they appear likely and an adjustment is necessary?  Maybe 3%, a finals bonus or possibly minutes related at like 1700?  A contract similar to Olynyk's as a template, maybe slightly less?

No, can’t do that.  You can’t adjust the contract and you certainly can’t game his minutes so as not to pay it.

Sorry I wasn't suggesting rewriting Smart's contract, I was suggesting trading someone else to get the C's under the tax, if necessary.  It is not even for sure the C's would have to do anything as they may find a deal that gets them a few million below the cap anyway.

You could, but you might get caught holding the hot potato at the end of the year if Smart hits that incentive and you can’t find a place to trade him, which is really the same problem as guaranteeing the higher amount to begin with.  At the same time, you introduce an incentive that he might alter his playing style to make.  For example, if it’s a minutes threshold, does he dive on the ground to preserve himself a bit more?  Does he get upset at the end of the year if you cut minutes to rest for the playoffs and he’s close?  The reason I don’t like most incentives is that they often introduce perverse incentives, which is not what you want.

[The Oracle]

Hey Saltlover.  What are your thoughts on an unlikely bonus being included in Smart's contract?

Living up to your username, you correctly divined that I have thought about it.  In general I’m not a fan of giving bonuses that you’re kind of hoping a player won’t reach, since if he does reach them then you’re in the luxury tax.  It’d certainly be permissible — I just don’t think it’s a good practice.

If you could write in like $1.5 million in unlikely bonuses that are achievable, you could adjust at the trade deadline if they appear likely and an adjustment is necessary?  Maybe 3%, a finals bonus or possibly minutes related at like 1700?  A contract similar to Olynyk's as a template, maybe slightly less?

No, can’t do that.  You can’t adjust the contract and you certainly can’t game his minutes so as not to pay it.

Sorry I wasn't suggesting rewriting Smart's contract, I was suggesting trading someone else to get the C's under the tax, if necessary.  It is not even for sure the C's would have to do anything as they may find a deal that gets them a few million below the cap anyway.

You could, but you might get caught holding the hot potato at the end of the year if Smart hits that incentive and you can’t find a place to trade him, which is really the same problem as guaranteeing the higher amount to begin with.  At the same time, you introduce an incentive that he might alter his playing style to make.  For example, if it’s a minutes threshold, does he dive on the ground to preserve himself a bit more?  Does he get upset at the end of the year if you cut minutes to rest for the playoffs and he’s close?  The reason I don’t like most incentives is that they often introduce perverse incentives, which is not what you want.

You are pretty much where I am as to unlikely bonuses then.  Smart is probably as difficult a player as there is to write them for.  I really like using them to sign someone under the cap but not so much around the luxury tax.  Still think the C's can easily remedy the luxury tax situation and get Smart payed at the same time.  If Ojeleye or Yabu develops there will be very little reason to keep Morris and trading his salary for a smaller one solves everything.

[tarheelsxxiii]

My hope is that the Celtics and Smart end up at an approximately 5/$52 million deal.  They could agree to this and stay under the tax by stretching/trading Nader.   It might be enough to keep Marcus with — if he accepted his qualifying offer he’d need to get 4 years/$46 million in free agency to make up the difference, with year one starting around $10.7 million.  He could get that, but there’s no guarantee.

That’s the figure I’m targeting — we’ll see where it comes out.

How's that? I was at ~8 mil under the tax after renouncing Gibson, Larkin, Monroe, and then stretching Nader.

I don’t know.  I’m at $8.94 million after doing all that, which over 5 years gets you to $51.8 million or so.  Do you have Bird in your calculations?  I decided I was willing to sacrifice Jabari if it meant a 5-year deal for Marcus.

That was the difference.  I'm there now with 13 + Kadeem Allen.  Didn't realize we could reach that figure with the remaining space.  I think Smart has to eventually take it.

[nickagneta]

I would have no trouble giving Smart a deal that starts at something that gets us close to the tax threshold and giving him 5 year. What does that come out to, about $51 million over 5 years. Also, give him a 15% trade clause kicker. That way if the Cs want to trade him his contract is worth more money going out and Smart makes more money

[td450]

I know that many on this board believe in the importance of what Marcus has done for this team, but up until now, there hasn't been enough talent to cut into his minutes. Last year could have been a problem for him, but injuries gave him a reprieve. Next year he's likely looking at closer to 20 minutes or less, rather than the 30 he's accustomed to.

Terry Rozier is threatening to take his spot in the pecking order, and rather than using him as a small forward in spots, we will have log jams there too. After next year comes waves of draft picks, and because we are top contenders, vets will look to jump on for cheap one year deals.

This is just a long winded way of saying Marcus is not likely to get paid here. If he gets a $10M> deal, he will become a piece in a trade. There will suddenly be a lot of competition for the 6-7th man role here, and there will be some pretty good options that are much cheaper than he is.

[saltlover]

I would have no trouble giving Smart a deal that starts at something that gets us close to the tax threshold and giving him 5 year. What does that come out to, about $51 million over 5 years. Also, give him a 15% trade clause kicker. That way if the Cs want to trade him his contract is worth more money going out and Smart makes more money

It would not be worth more going out.  Trade bonuses only count for incoming salary, not outgoing.  I’m still fine with it because I like Smart.

[Surferdad]

I know that many on this board believe in the importance of what Marcus has done for this team, but up until now, there hasn't been enough talent to cut into his minutes. Last year could have been a problem for him, but injuries gave him a reprieve. Next year he's likely looking at closer to 20 minutes or less, rather than the 30 he's accustomed to.

Terry Rozier is threatening to take his spot in the pecking order, and rather than using him as a small forward in spots, we will have log jams there too. After next year comes waves of draft picks, and because we are top contenders, vets will look to jump on for cheap one year deals.

This is just a long winded way of saying Marcus is not likely to get paid here. If he gets a $10M> deal, he will become a piece in a trade. There will suddenly be a lot of competition for the 6-7th man role here, and there will be some pretty good options that are much cheaper than he is.

All that may come to pass, but I think we need to see how this roster works first and, hate to say it, but injuries could play a major role, as they did this season. IMO, keeping Smart for 2018-19 is a top priority.  Beyond that is hard to predict right now.

[celticinorlando]

Per Murph:

NEW: Source says Marcus Smart has not heard from Celtics since start of free agency, and he's "hurt and disgusted."

[gouki88]

Per Murph:

NEW: Source says Marcus Smart has not heard from Celtics since start of free agency, and he's "hurt and disgusted."

Uh oh

[saltlover]

Per Murph:

NEW: Source says Marcus Smart has not heard from Celtics since start of free agency, and he's "hurt and disgusted."

This is different than other rumors.  My hope is that Danny has talked to his agent and was giving Smart space to be with family instead while the two parties work out preliminary negotiations.

[CelticD]

Per Murph:

NEW: Source says Marcus Smart has not heard from Celtics since start of free agency, and he's "hurt and disgusted."

I ain't mad.