NBA Exec on trade - "Not highway robbery, but it's close"

[hpantazo]

The entire offense went through Fultz and he went from a likely lottery pick before the season, to the #1 overall pick as large part of those individual accomplishments

Chad Ford had Fultz #1 in August 2016, before any "individual accomplishments".

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/4z8wbj/chad_fords_mock_draft_10_2017/

If so, then it was after his performance during the summer. Because Giles was far and away the #1 pick until the injures. In fact, for a long time Giles and Jackson #1 and #2.

Regardless, you edited the rest of my post. Again, you were hellbent against the KG/Pierce trade when it happened. That's why it's best to be patient in passing judgement without knowing where future picks will land and who we draft. For example, if Bagley Jr. were eligible and I would be willing to bet anything that he would be the #1 pick and we don't make the deal.

Does it matter if I was wrong on the KG / Pierce trade? Is your track record perfect? Is Danny's?

I think trading a consensus #1 for two lesser pieces is a bad idea.

This feels like trading Kyrie for Michael Kidd Gilchrist and Enes Kanter.

But, going forward, is it fair to say that you won't be commenting on trades until 2+ years out?

You being wrong on the KG/Pierce trade has relevancy because like this trade, it involves future picks and it involves a level of patience. When it comes to the fluidity of future picks, I think the best approach is to wait and see. This trade could be an amazing one, but it also has risk. We won't be able to judge until we know where the protected pick ends up. However, to dismiss it entirely is shortsighted. Bagley Jr would likely be the #1 pick this year and to have a chance at him is exciting, even it begs for patience.

I don't judge things on whether through happenstance we end up with a best case scenario. Rather, I judge things on what can be reasonably expected. Top tier talent is extremely difficult to acquire, and we just passed on it for two lesser assets.

But again, let me know how not commenting on trades except in hindsight works out for you. In the interim, let's all hope that "John Bagley Jr." works out.

That is fully based on the assumption that Fultz is a top tier talent and Jackson, Tatum, and Ball are not. Apparently the Celtics, and other GMs, think there are 4 top tier talents in this draft, Fultz, Ball, Jackson, and Tatum. If that is the case, then getting an additional potential top 5 pick and still taking one of those 4 players is a steal.

[RockinRyA]

Jordan Schultz‏ Verified account
@Schultz_Report
Asked an NBA exec for his opinion on Philly-Boston trade. His answer: "That's Danny [Ainge] for you. Not a highway robbery, but it's close."

Jordan Schultz Retweeted Jordan Schultz
Genera idea is that #celtics continue to acquire more picks
-- not merely the one extra from this trade. Are there ever 2 many picks tho?

Granted I love Fultz for Philly, but C's still win this deal, at least in current iteration. Move down 2 spots and just acquire more picks.

My take: coin flip as to who is better between fultz, Jackson and ball. Boston still gets one of those three, plus maybe future top 6 pick

Pretty much as I see it. Many fans seems to love the allure of having the #1 pick more than the actual player they would be getting.

Does this writers cover a lot of football, baseball, and hockey? In the NBA, "moving down 2 spots" is the difference between drafting Jeff Green instead of Kevin Durant. The NBA is not a league where you win with quantity over quality.

What a pile.

Yes but sometimes its drafting James Harden instead of Blake Griffin. Stop acting like you know everything that will happen. You've been doing it for a while now.

[bellerephon]

I totally agree. I'm not saying Danny made the right move, it's too soon to know that. But those killing the trade are all assuming that Fultz is an elite talent, clearly Danny doesn't think so.

[Big333223]

Jordan Schultz‏ Verified account
@Schultz_Report
Asked an NBA exec for his opinion on Philly-Boston trade. His answer: "That's Danny [Ainge] for you. Not a highway robbery, but it's close."

Jordan Schultz Retweeted Jordan Schultz
Genera idea is that #celtics continue to acquire more picks
-- not merely the one extra from this trade. Are there ever 2 many picks tho?

Granted I love Fultz for Philly, but C's still win this deal, at least in current iteration. Move down 2 spots and just acquire more picks.

My take: coin flip as to who is better between fultz, Jackson and ball. Boston still gets one of those three, plus maybe future top 6 pick

Pretty much as I see it. Many fans seems to love the allure of having the #1 pick more than the actual player they would be getting.

Does this writer cover a lot of football, baseball, and hockey? In the NBA, "moving down 2 spots" is the difference between drafting Jeff Green instead of Kevin Durant. This is not a league where you win with quantity over quality.

What a pile.

Or it could be the difference between drafting Chris Bosh instead of Darko Millicic. Every draft is different.

[TheSundanceKid]

The only way you can view this as a bad trade is if you consider Fultz a level above. I just don't get that, it's media hype. Same thing happened with Simmons and Ingram. The media love to hype guys up. The reality is there are 4 guys who can be an all star in his draft and there isn't much separation. Fultz certainly had plenty of weaknesses throughout the year, notably his defending.

Given how much better the 2018 draft seems to be at the top, I'm excited about the prospect of another shot there. We could easily have 2 top 5 picks in that draft, LA are not going to be that much better next year and we still own the pick in 2 of the 3 cases it jumps up.

[jambr380]

Jordan Schultz‏ Verified account
@Schultz_Report
Asked an NBA exec for his opinion on Philly-Boston trade. His answer: "That's Danny [Ainge] for you. Not a highway robbery, but it's close."

Jordan Schultz Retweeted Jordan Schultz
Genera idea is that #celtics continue to acquire more picks
-- not merely the one extra from this trade. Are there ever 2 many picks tho?

Granted I love Fultz for Philly, but C's still win this deal, at least in current iteration. Move down 2 spots and just acquire more picks.

My take: coin flip as to who is better between fultz, Jackson and ball. Boston still gets one of those three, plus maybe future top 6 pick

Pretty much as I see it. Many fans seems to love the allure of having the #1 pick more than the actual player they would be getting.

Does this writer cover a lot of football, baseball, and hockey? In the NBA, "moving down 2 spots" is the difference between drafting Jeff Green instead of Kevin Durant. This is not a league where you win with quantity over quality.

What a pile.

I am going to assume he judges every draft class differently. In the Oden/Durant draft class, there were two clear prizes with the Green's and Jianlian's of the world coming after them. It has been said time and again that there are 4 top prospects in this draft; while Fultz may technically be the best one, there is hardly the kind of talent disparity that there was in '07 (for instance).

[kozlodoev]

Jordan Schultz‏ Verified account
@Schultz_Report
Asked an NBA exec for his opinion on Philly-Boston trade. His answer: "That's Danny [Ainge] for you. Not a highway robbery, but it's close."

Jordan Schultz Retweeted Jordan Schultz
Genera idea is that #celtics continue to acquire more picks
-- not merely the one extra from this trade. Are there ever 2 many picks tho?

Granted I love Fultz for Philly, but C's still win this deal, at least in current iteration. Move down 2 spots and just acquire more picks.

My take: coin flip as to who is better between fultz, Jackson and ball. Boston still gets one of those three, plus maybe future top 6 pick

Pretty much as I see it. Many fans seems to love the allure of having the #1 pick more than the actual player they would be getting.

Does this writer cover a lot of football, baseball, and hockey? In the NBA, "moving down 2 spots" is the difference between drafting Jeff Green instead of Kevin Durant. This is not a league where you win with quantity over quality.

What a pile.

I am going to assume he judges every draft class differently. In the Oden/Durant draft class, there were two clear prizes with the Green's and Jianlian's of the world coming after them. It has been said time and again that there are 4 top prospects in this draft; while Fultz may technically be the best one, there is hardly the kind of talent disparity that there was in '07 (for instance).

That's funny because it's been a pretty long standing consensus that this is a 2-person draft. I guess the Huffington Post knows something no-one else does.

[Scintan]

The only way you can view this as a bad trade is if you consider Fultz a level above.

I'm not sure why people keep repeating that, because it's simply not true.  You can view this as a bad trade if you just objectively analyze what you're getting in return.  The pick is only available for 2-5 next year, meaning you aren't getting any consensus #1 player unless the #1 drafting team brain locks, or you get lucky enough that the Brooklyn pick is that #1.  Heck, realistically, the Celtics might have been better off just straight up taking the risk on that Kings pick.

Now, that doesn't mean that taking a bit of a bath on the trade is guaranteed to end up as a bad thing.  It just means that the trade, as written, is not bringing back the kind of value you should expect for the #1 spot.

[Smitty77]

Pretty much as I see it. Many fans seems to love the allure of having the #1 pick more than the actual player they would be getting.

Not really. Fans see a guy with elite size and length, coupled with production that's rarely been seen st the NCAA level in recent years. Fultz is a top-tier prospect who seems like he'll be on Kyrie's level, perhaps Harden's.

I am SURE that Danny has information on Fultz that NONE of us, even you Roy, have.  This trade simply CANNOT and SHOULD NOT be judged before we make OR trade those picks and THEN see how they work on in the NBA.

Smitty77

Isn't the same true of every single trade and draft pick?

CelticsBlog would be a pretty odd forum if we only judged things in hindsight.

I suppose that this rushing to judgment is typical of other blogs, but I would NOT know, as I don't make a habit of frequenting them!  I do know that our blog tends to be WAY over the TOP about pre-judgments!!

Smitty77

[Eddie20]

Jordan Schultz‏ Verified account
@Schultz_Report
Asked an NBA exec for his opinion on Philly-Boston trade. His answer: "That's Danny [Ainge] for you. Not a highway robbery, but it's close."

Jordan Schultz Retweeted Jordan Schultz
Genera idea is that #celtics continue to acquire more picks
-- not merely the one extra from this trade. Are there ever 2 many picks tho?

Granted I love Fultz for Philly, but C's still win this deal, at least in current iteration. Move down 2 spots and just acquire more picks.

My take: coin flip as to who is better between fultz, Jackson and ball. Boston still gets one of those three, plus maybe future top 6 pick

Pretty much as I see it. Many fans seems to love the allure of having the #1 pick more than the actual player they would be getting.

Does this writer cover a lot of football, baseball, and hockey? In the NBA, "moving down 2 spots" is the difference between drafting Jeff Green instead of Kevin Durant. This is not a league where you win with quantity over quality.

What a pile.

I am going to assume he judges every draft class differently. In the Oden/Durant draft class, there were two clear prizes with the Green's and Jianlian's of the world coming after them. It has been said time and again that there are 4 top prospects in this draft; while Fultz may technically be the best one, there is hardly the kind of talent disparity that there was in '07 (for instance).

That's funny because it's been a pretty long standing consensus that this is a 2-person draft. I guess the Huffington Post knows something no-one else does.

Along with this, there are also reports that the Celtics feel those 4 players are all elite level prospects. I think you'e confusing last year's draft (where Simmons and Ingram were the consensus 1 and 2) with this one.

Mark Murphy‏Verified account
@Murf56
The Celtics have Fultz, Jackson, Tatum and Ball rated as top four in this draft. If Lakers take Jackson at No. 2, Tatum looms large.

[Eddie20]

The only way you can view this as a bad trade is if you consider Fultz a level above.

The pick is only available for 2-5 next year, meaning you aren't getting any consensus #1 player unless the #1 drafting team brain locks, or you get lucky enough that the Brooklyn pick is that #1. 

This would suggest that every draft is completely uniform and that the #1 pick in any given year is superior in value to a lesser pick in subsequent years. This is actually devoid of any logic and a quick history check would prove that notion false. For example, are you 100% certain that Fultz is a better prospect than Doncic, Ayton, or Bradley? Because if he were in next year's draft class I think he would be in the mix with Bamba for 4th pick.

[trickybilly]

 B Good manager Josh: "trade has saved my career, no way that bushleaguer Jackson gets free anything"

[celticinorlando]

Not sure how this is a good deal getting stuck with Jackson and both the first round picks are going to be protected

[colincb]

Kevin Pelton did an ESPN "Insider" analysis of the deal and came up with what would be a fair return based on an NBA draft chart similar to what is done in the NFL. By his analysis, we did fine.

Still, making up the gap between the two picks wouldn't require Boston to get another top-five pick. The chart shows the difference between No. 1 and No. 3 as 1,330 points, about equivalent to the No. 14 pick, the final pick of the lottery (1,320 points).

and

Though the Lakers and Kings won't have any incentive to lose to improve their lottery odds, the most likely outcome for both of those picks is much better than the 14th pick, with a reasonable chance they'll end up in the lottery's top three.

If the pick that Philadelphia sends is the 2018 Lakers pick, it will be in the top five -- it conveys if it is anywhere from No. 2 to No. 5. It's not the Lakers pick, the Sixers will send along the Kings' 2019 pick (unprotected), likely a lottery pick. So on paper, the No. 3 pick and the Lakers' (or the Kings') pick would very likely exceed the No. 1 pick in value.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19658707/how-much-more-valuable-no-1-pick-trading-2017-nba-draft

I think his chart is off. In what draft is #1 only worth #3 plus #14?

There are many drafts where the 3rd player picked ends up being better than the 1st player picked, especially with salaries being factored in which Pelton's analysis does.

[Kuberski33]

Not sure how this is a good deal getting stuck with Jackson and both the first round picks are going to be protected

Celtics control this.  When Philly acquired the pick it was unprotected.  Until the deal is finalized with league office C's can walk away.