Fultz is overrated

[gouki88]

My realistic expectation/ceiling of Fultz is McCollum...

2016/2017 highlights of McCollum below...   lots of similarities imo.  From physical tools, skillset... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bybxsHWV40

McCollum is closer to his floor than ceiling.  You're disregarding Fultz's elite ball-handling and defensive potential (of which CJ has none).  Would you like him more if he was slotted for the 2nd round?

I think he doesn't like players like Fultz, that's all

Because I compare Fultz to McCollum (realistic ceiling imo) vs comparing him to Kyrie or Harden.... this means i don't like Fultz??

sorry i will compare Fultz to Kobe next time...geez

I don't think your comparison is nuts and you can definitely see the similarities offensively (change of speed, mid-range game, etc.).

Keep in mind however that you're looking at a 25-year-old McCollum and an 18-year-old Fultz.

If you compare them as freshmen you can see the differences emerge.

1. Their numbers are on face value not too different, but when you look at blocks (1.2 vs. 0.2) you see evidence of Fultz's advantage in length and reach.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/cj-mccollum-1.html#site_menu_link
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/markelle-fultz-1.html

2. you need to keep in mind that Fultz is putting up those numbers in a top conference while McCollum is doing it in the Patriot league, which is worlds different. McCollum's freshman numbers in the Pac-12 would likely have been significantly worse.

3. If you want to see the level of competition and a view of what younger McCollum was like, see this video rather than the one you posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQkmaFY7WUs&t=16s. Even there, that's CJ's junior year (age 20) vs. Fultz at 18.

4. You notice two things there. One, the guys CJ is playing against are just not on the same level at all. And two, even at age 20 against inferior competition, McCollum had significantly more trouble getting his shot off, and it was a slower release. You could imagine Fultz absolutely destroying that level of competition on a nightly basis. Fultz gets so much separation at age 18, against superior competition, compared to what CJ was doing at age 20 against a bunch of guys with inferior athletic skill.

5. You also see, as others have noted, that McCollum is a nearly pure SG while Fultz is a PG with SG skills and size. CJ just does not have the same skills in terms of finding others and creating offense for others. Fultz is bigger, faster, and plays more like a PG.

I think if you put this all together, there are many objective criteria on which Fultz has a clear advantage. You've noted a similarity in scoring style that makes sense to me, but as you project out and think of what a 25-year-old Fultz will look like compared to that video of McCollum at age 25, there are many, many reasons to believe Fultz will be the superior player.

Why not discuss about what mccollum is doing at the nba level today then dissect his past, like he is not in the nba still??  Or on his way to the nba?

Fultz has not even stepped into the nba... Is he averaging 23 ppg already? Or should be averaging 29 ppg because of theories xyz, his 6'10 wingspan?

Fultz is skilled offensively... But we cant declare him better to be McCollum just yet...and on par to Kyrie/Harden

By this logic, Marcus Smart is more skilled offensively than Fultz because "Fultz has not even stepped into the NBA"  cmon triboy

Also, if rookie Fultz is able to produce at a level of a near-prime CJ McCollum, I don't think that's a bad thing. I think we should be pleased, actually. Because usually, guys improve after their rookie year.

Did Marcus Smart avg 23 ppg last season?

No its not a bad thing at all... Thats why iam saying it is a realistic expectation. Does he have the tools to be better? Yes. But iam not jumping the gun .... + unless he shows that he can play better D

I make that extreme statement to catch your attention and point out the absurdity of your logic. You claimed Fultz realistic ceiling is McCollum at which Boris made a terrific breakdown of why Fultz is better than McCollum was at around the same age. And yet, you defend your stance by saying:
1) rookie Fultz should be compared instead to McCollum in his current prime - can you explain why you think that would be the proper methodology?
2) such a comparison or declaration can't even be valid because "Fultz hasn't played an NBA minute" - why does this matter when making a projection? Particularly when you have a historical comparison of how McCollum performed anyway. I bring up Marcus Smart because imo, it's ridiculous to use "NBA experience" as some sort of qualifier when making educated guesses or projections. 

When you say things like Fultz's ceiling is McCollum, and then state in your most recent post that in his rookie year, your realistic expectation is that he can be just as good as prime McCollum, it doesn't add up. I mean, why would Fultz's ceiling be McCollum if on year one, you think it's realistic that he performs just as good as McCollum in his prime?? Unless:

1. You think Fultz will peak in his rookie year and then not get better or even deteriorate.
2. When you talk about "ceiling", you really meant ceiling in his rookie year only. And not his career or what he could be 3-5 years from now.

Not worth trying LilRip, oftentimes you'll write a lengthy response and he'll only respond to the one sentence that he wishes to.

[Future Celtics Owner]

My realistic expectation/ceiling of Fultz is McCollum...

2016/2017 highlights of McCollum below...   lots of similarities imo.  From physical tools, skillset... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bybxsHWV40

McCollum is closer to his floor than ceiling.  You're disregarding Fultz's elite ball-handling and defensive potential (of which CJ has none).  Would you like him more if he was slotted for the 2nd round?

I think he doesn't like players like Fultz, that's all

Because I compare Fultz to McCollum (realistic ceiling imo) vs comparing him to Kyrie or Harden.... this means i don't like Fultz??

sorry i will compare Fultz to Kobe next time...geez

I don't think your comparison is nuts and you can definitely see the similarities offensively (change of speed, mid-range game, etc.).

Keep in mind however that you're looking at a 25-year-old McCollum and an 18-year-old Fultz.

If you compare them as freshmen you can see the differences emerge.

1. Their numbers are on face value not too different, but when you look at blocks (1.2 vs. 0.2) you see evidence of Fultz's advantage in length and reach.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/cj-mccollum-1.html#site_menu_link
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/markelle-fultz-1.html

2. you need to keep in mind that Fultz is putting up those numbers in a top conference while McCollum is doing it in the Patriot league, which is worlds different. McCollum's freshman numbers in the Pac-12 would likely have been significantly worse.

3. If you want to see the level of competition and a view of what younger McCollum was like, see this video rather than the one you posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQkmaFY7WUs&t=16s. Even there, that's CJ's junior year (age 20) vs. Fultz at 18.

4. You notice two things there. One, the guys CJ is playing against are just not on the same level at all. And two, even at age 20 against inferior competition, McCollum had significantly more trouble getting his shot off, and it was a slower release. You could imagine Fultz absolutely destroying that level of competition on a nightly basis. Fultz gets so much separation at age 18, against superior competition, compared to what CJ was doing at age 20 against a bunch of guys with inferior athletic skill.

5. You also see, as others have noted, that McCollum is a nearly pure SG while Fultz is a PG with SG skills and size. CJ just does not have the same skills in terms of finding others and creating offense for others. Fultz is bigger, faster, and plays more like a PG.

I think if you put this all together, there are many objective criteria on which Fultz has a clear advantage. You've noted a similarity in scoring style that makes sense to me, but as you project out and think of what a 25-year-old Fultz will look like compared to that video of McCollum at age 25, there are many, many reasons to believe Fultz will be the superior player.

Why not discuss about what mccollum is doing at the nba level today then dissect his past, like he is not in the nba still??  Or on his way to the nba?

Fultz has not even stepped into the nba... Is he averaging 23 ppg already? Or should be averaging 29 ppg because of theories xyz, his 6'10 wingspan?

Fultz is skilled offensively... But we cant declare him better to be McCollum just yet...and on par to Kyrie/Harden

By this logic, Marcus Smart is more skilled offensively than Fultz because "Fultz has not even stepped into the NBA"  cmon triboy

Also, if rookie Fultz is able to produce at a level of a near-prime CJ McCollum, I don't think that's a bad thing. I think we should be pleased, actually. Because usually, guys improve after their rookie year.

Did Marcus Smart avg 23 ppg last season?

No its not a bad thing at all... Thats why iam saying it is a realistic expectation. Does he have the tools to be better? Yes. But iam not jumping the gun .... + unless he shows that he can play better D

I make that extreme statement to catch your attention and point out the absurdity of your logic. You claimed Fultz realistic ceiling is McCollum at which Boris made a terrific breakdown of why Fultz is better than McCollum was at around the same age. And yet, you defend your stance by saying:
1) rookie Fultz should be compared instead to McCollum in his current prime - can you explain why you think that would be the proper methodology?
2) such a comparison or declaration can't even be valid because "Fultz hasn't played an NBA minute" - why does this matter when making a projection? Particularly when you have a historical comparison of how McCollum performed anyway. I bring up Marcus Smart because imo, it's ridiculous to use "NBA experience" as some sort of qualifier when making educated guesses or projections. 

When you say things like Fultz's ceiling is McCollum, and then state in your most recent post that in his rookie year, your realistic expectation is that he can be just as good as prime McCollum, it doesn't add up. I mean, why would Fultz's ceiling be McCollum if on year one, you think it's realistic that he performs just as good as McCollum in his prime?? Unless:

1. You think Fultz will peak in his rookie year and then not get better or even deteriorate.
2. When you talk about "ceiling", you really meant ceiling in his rookie year only. And not his career or what he could be 3-5 years from now.

Not worth trying LilRip, oftentimes you'll write a lengthy response and he'll only respond to the one sentence that he wishes to.

I think people need to be more honest with their intentions. Like if you want to win now and cash in everything to get players to beat the Cavs and TRY to beat the DSW...then just day so. No reason to rip on a great player in Fultz bc he was unable to beat college teams single handedly.

[clevelandceltic]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

[CelticsElite]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

did not know about the MVP


Will be really interesting if one of our picks next year reunites him with one of those guys

[Tr1boy]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

since you claim you are a "Fultz" expert.    Why was he ranked 8th (High School Sports Class of 2016 Composite Basketball Recruiting Rankings) below Jackson, Tatum etc.  ?

[CelticsElite]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

since you claim you are a "Fultz" expert.    Why was he ranked 8th (High School Sports Class of 2016 Composite Basketball Recruiting Rankings) below Jackson, Tatum etc.  ?

Does it really matter?
Austin rivers was ranked above Bradley beal in high school. Avery Bradley was ranked higher than John  wall

[Tr1boy]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

since you claim you are a "Fultz" expert.    Why was he ranked 8th (High School Sports Class of 2016 Composite Basketball Recruiting Rankings) below Jackson, Tatum etc.  ?

Does it really matter?
Austin rivers was ranked above Bradley beal in high school. Avery Bradley was ranked higher than John  wall

Does it matter if he was mvp of a U18 tourney then?

[tenn_smoothie]

What is with the people on this board ? Were you not taught basic spelling and grammar as kids ? It's embarrassing - some of the obliterated words and uses of the wrong forms.

I'm sure I'll get hammered over this post - "This isn't English class" - but I can't believe some of the train-wreck grammar I see in these forums.

Anyway, Draft Fultz and get on with the talented youth movement. Stay patient. Let's rebuild this team the right way while we have the opportunity and enjoy a long period of success.

[Phantom255x]

What is with the people on this board ? Were you not taught basic spelling and grammar as kids ? It's embarrassing - some of the obliterated words and uses of the wrong forms.

I'm sure I'll get hammered over this post - "This isn't English class" - but I can't believe some of the train-wreck grammar I see in these forums.

Anyway, Draft Fultz and get on with the talented youth movement. Stay patient. Let's rebuild this team the right way while we have the opportunity and enjoy a long period of success.

I really hope we can add Gordon HAYWOOD this off season! 

[Tr1boy]

What is with the people on this board ? Were you not taught basic spelling and grammar as kids ? It's embarrassing - some of the obliterated words and uses of the wrong forms.

I'm sure I'll get hammered over this post - "This isn't English class" - but I can't believe some of the train-wreck grammar I see in these forums.

Anyway, Draft Fultz and get on with the talented youth movement. Stay patient. Let's rebuild this team the right way while we have the opportunity and enjoy a long period of success.

Ok there tenn 

If the Celts draft Fultz, what happens to IT4 in your opinion?

[Tr1boy]

What is with the people on this board ? Were you not taught basic spelling and grammar as kids ? It's embarrassing - some of the obliterated words and uses of the wrong forms.

I'm sure I'll get hammered over this post - "This isn't English class" - but I can't believe some of the train-wreck grammar I see in these forums.

Anyway, Draft Fultz and get on with the talented youth movement. Stay patient. Let's rebuild this team the right way while we have the opportunity and enjoy a long period of success.

I really hope we can add Gordon HAYWOOD this off season! 

Lol

[cltc5]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

there's a reason we don't call him "drafter danny"

[clevelandceltic]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

since you claim you are a "Fultz" expert.    Why was he ranked 8th (High School Sports Class of 2016 Composite Basketball Recruiting Rankings) below Jackson, Tatum etc.  ?

First off i never claimed to be a Fultz expert nor have i have I ever claimed that. What i do know is i have watched more of his games than you. I know for a fact that he was the U18 MVP the summer of 16.

And to answer your question I dont know nor do i care. Towns was ranked 9th going into college and he was far superior of a pro prospect in my eyes than Turner or Alexander. It makes little difference. Please explain how that matters at all? Oh and while you are trying to do that please explain to me how Blake Griffin was ranked 23rd in his HS class at one point

[clevelandceltic]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

since you claim you are a "Fultz" expert.    Why was he ranked 8th (High School Sports Class of 2016 Composite Basketball Recruiting Rankings) below Jackson, Tatum etc.  ?

Does it really matter?
Austin rivers was ranked above Bradley beal in high school. Avery Bradley was ranked higher than John  wall

Does it matter if he was mvp of a U18 tourney then?

Im not sure what you have against the kid other than you like Jackson. I dont get it. The MVP says he was the best most valuabel player on a Gold medal team that will have at least 2 other top 5 players in next years class. The team went 5 - 0. To say that all of a sudden he is a loser becaus of Washington is rather funny but pleasekeep trying to pick apart the kid because Jackson wont be picked at 1.

[Somebody]

I love the Fultz cant get this team to win any games argument because it ignores how talent evaluator look at a player. its not as if Fultz just came on the radar of Ainge since the start of the college season. Ainge said so in his interview with Mark Murphy.

But more to the point i started with. The summer before he went to UW he was the MVP of the U18 team. That team had Jarret Allen, Porter Jr, MO Bamba, Quade Green and Matt Coleman. Team went 5 - 0 and he closed out the championship game. He didnt forget how to win in a few months.

since you claim you are a "Fultz" expert.    Why was he ranked 8th (High School Sports Class of 2016 Composite Basketball Recruiting Rankings) below Jackson, Tatum etc.  ?

Does it really matter?
Austin rivers was ranked above Bradley beal in high school. Avery Bradley was ranked higher than John  wall

Does it matter if he was mvp of a U18 tourney then?

Im not sure what you have against the kid other than you like Jackson. I dont get it. The MVP says he was the best most valuabel player on a Gold medal team that will have at least 2 other top 5 players in next years class. The team went 5 - 0. To say that all of a sudden he is a loser becaus of Washington is rather funny but pleasekeep trying to pick apart the kid because Jackson wont be picked at 1.

Because Jackson is his binkie... .