Author Topic: $26 million man  (Read 23819 times)

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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #90 on: December 15, 2016, 09:35:23 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Sullinger got hurt when he landed on a foot doing basketball activities for Toronto.  No guarantee he gets hurt in Boston since it wasn't an injury he had when he left Boston.  Now sure, maybe he was destined to get hurt, but he wasn't hurt last year.  Can't project things like that.

And my larger point is simply, by overpaying for Horford, Boston lost out on addressing actual needs of the team.  Boston is a terrible rebounder team, still has no wing scorer, has no low post scorer, etc.  Signing a beta to the contract of an alpha when you don't have an alpha is a recipe for disaster. For the money Boston paid Horford it could have re-signed Sullinger and brought in Biyombo and Hibbert.  Or it could have signed Gerald Henderson, Speights, and Mozgov.  Or signed Trevor Booker and Luol Deng.  Or countless other combinations of players that would better address actual needs of the team i.e. rebounding, low post scoring, a deeper bench, etc. 

Boston wasn't a contender and signing Horford doesn't make Boston a contender.  Horford is 30 the rest of the core of the team is 27 or younger so he doesn't fit in age wise either. 

His signing definitely signals what Ainge is thinking i.e. Ainge is going to trade assets to try and build a contender now.  Ainge obviously hasn't found a trade he likes well enough yet, but before the start of next season Ainge will have made a trade using prime assets to acquire a prime player because Boston needs an alpha to compete now and the Horford signing signals that is the intent.

Have you been following the NBA the past ~10 years?

You need more than 1 alpha / max contract to win.

You need KG/Pierce/Ray level talent.  Duncan/Parker/Ginobili, Kobe/Pau/Odom/Bynum, LeBron/Wade/Bosh, Curry/Thompson/Draymond/Durant.

Horford didn't handicap us, he brought us 1 step closer.
Sure, but you need THE GUY first.  Or at least a 1.  Boston doesn't have a 1.  They have two 2's, a 2/3 guy, and a bunch of 3's.  Without the 1 in place, overpaying for 2's or 3's is a recipe for mediocrity.  If Durant had signed, then Horford's contract made sense because with Durant, Horford, Thomas, etc. Boston is a real contender.

This goes back on the old adage, you don't lock up role players to long term contract when you don't have the stars.  Similarly you don't lock up a 2 on a max contract if you don't have the 1 already in place.
You are correct to an extent. You do need a 2nd or third best player on a championship team to entice a player like Durant.

Unless we can find another Durant type to sign with us we need to be patient and let the young players develop. We cannot over play our hand because the pieces we have are not good enough to go all in to acquire another 2nd best player on a championship team.

the best path is to hold onto the young players and change the timeline to 4-5 years from now.

I would even consider trading our guys like Horford and IT for a Porzingis. Throw in AB and just get it done. Our best window is not now.
Signing Horford and letting the young guys develop are two different paths though.  That is the point I've been making.  By signing Horford, Boston has signaled to the world it wants to win now, which means it is going to make moves to achieve that goal.  Those moves will invariably mean young players/draft picks are going to be traded, young guys aren't going to get as many minutes to develop, etc.  The problem with winning now of course, is Boston needs a 1 and those aren't easy to find.  Boston's best path to a 1 is actually the two upcoming Brooklyn picks, but again that is a different path than the one the team is currently on based on Horford's signing.
Im not buying that. Horford isn't blocking any minutes for our young players and he had to be signed to get a chance at Durant. Since we didn't get Durant Ainge now has to decide which path is best. There is no reason he has to be married to either direction. He just has to realize which is best going forward.
Ainge can't lure a major free agent like Horford and then give up on him and trade him a year later.  No major free agent would even sign in Boston again if that is the end game. 

And yeah Boston isn't quite at the tipping point, but will be after next summer.  That is the point when a decision has to be made on the direction of the team, I just can't see how Boston can make the decision to rebuild after signing Horford (for the reason above).  Boston has to go all in. 
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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #91 on: December 15, 2016, 09:43:15 AM »

Offline TrueFan

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Sullinger got hurt when he landed on a foot doing basketball activities for Toronto.  No guarantee he gets hurt in Boston since it wasn't an injury he had when he left Boston.  Now sure, maybe he was destined to get hurt, but he wasn't hurt last year.  Can't project things like that.

And my larger point is simply, by overpaying for Horford, Boston lost out on addressing actual needs of the team.  Boston is a terrible rebounder team, still has no wing scorer, has no low post scorer, etc.  Signing a beta to the contract of an alpha when you don't have an alpha is a recipe for disaster. For the money Boston paid Horford it could have re-signed Sullinger and brought in Biyombo and Hibbert.  Or it could have signed Gerald Henderson, Speights, and Mozgov.  Or signed Trevor Booker and Luol Deng.  Or countless other combinations of players that would better address actual needs of the team i.e. rebounding, low post scoring, a deeper bench, etc. 

Boston wasn't a contender and signing Horford doesn't make Boston a contender.  Horford is 30 the rest of the core of the team is 27 or younger so he doesn't fit in age wise either. 

His signing definitely signals what Ainge is thinking i.e. Ainge is going to trade assets to try and build a contender now.  Ainge obviously hasn't found a trade he likes well enough yet, but before the start of next season Ainge will have made a trade using prime assets to acquire a prime player because Boston needs an alpha to compete now and the Horford signing signals that is the intent.

Have you been following the NBA the past ~10 years?

You need more than 1 alpha / max contract to win.

You need KG/Pierce/Ray level talent.  Duncan/Parker/Ginobili, Kobe/Pau/Odom/Bynum, LeBron/Wade/Bosh, Curry/Thompson/Draymond/Durant.

Horford didn't handicap us, he brought us 1 step closer.
Sure, but you need THE GUY first.  Or at least a 1.  Boston doesn't have a 1.  They have two 2's, a 2/3 guy, and a bunch of 3's.  Without the 1 in place, overpaying for 2's or 3's is a recipe for mediocrity.  If Durant had signed, then Horford's contract made sense because with Durant, Horford, Thomas, etc. Boston is a real contender.

This goes back on the old adage, you don't lock up role players to long term contract when you don't have the stars.  Similarly you don't lock up a 2 on a max contract if you don't have the 1 already in place.
You are correct to an extent. You do need a 2nd or third best player on a championship team to entice a player like Durant.

Unless we can find another Durant type to sign with us we need to be patient and let the young players develop. We cannot over play our hand because the pieces we have are not good enough to go all in to acquire another 2nd best player on a championship team.

the best path is to hold onto the young players and change the timeline to 4-5 years from now.

I would even consider trading our guys like Horford and IT for a Porzingis. Throw in AB and just get it done. Our best window is not now.
Signing Horford and letting the young guys develop are two different paths though.  That is the point I've been making.  By signing Horford, Boston has signaled to the world it wants to win now, which means it is going to make moves to achieve that goal.  Those moves will invariably mean young players/draft picks are going to be traded, young guys aren't going to get as many minutes to develop, etc.  The problem with winning now of course, is Boston needs a 1 and those aren't easy to find.  Boston's best path to a 1 is actually the two upcoming Brooklyn picks, but again that is a different path than the one the team is currently on based on Horford's signing.
Im not buying that. Horford isn't blocking any minutes for our young players and he had to be signed to get a chance at Durant. Since we didn't get Durant Ainge now has to decide which path is best. There is no reason he has to be married to either direction. He just has to realize which is best going forward.
Ainge can't lure a major free agent like Horford and then give up on him and trade him a year later.  No major free agent would even sign in Boston again if that is the end game. 

And yeah Boston isn't quite at the tipping point, but will be after next summer.  That is the point when a decision has to be made on the direction of the team, I just can't see how Boston can make the decision to rebuild after signing Horford (for the reason above).  Boston has to go all in.
If the Cs sent Horford somewhere he didn't want to go then you have a point. However if the team doesn't contend and we have a chance to package Horford and other pieces to a contender who has a nice young player to send back to us then it doesn't ruin our future chances.

We also can just sit on all these guys and just enjoy this team for what it is. A team to pass the time until our top draft picks develop.



Re: $26 million man
« Reply #92 on: December 15, 2016, 10:33:04 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Prior to this offseason, I absolutely hated the idea of signing Horford.

For the past few years he's been quite literally the ultimate "jack of all trades, master of none" player - and that's not the type of guy I like throwing near $30M a year on.

Then I saw how he played in training camp, and I was starting to change my mind.  I was thinking maybe, just maybe, I underestimated him.

Then the regular season started, and he went right back to old Al ways.

Fact is this.  Al Horford is good at lots of things, but there is nothing (absolutely nothing) that he does at an elite enough level to make this team substantially better on his own, and that's because sadly...he's a 29 year old who plays like he's 35.

When young Horford was a beast in the paint and a beast on the boards.  Now days he can't draw a foul to save his life, gets out rebounded by Avery Bradley on an almost nightly basis, fails almost every time he tries to score in the post, and (as a result of most of that, perhaps) spends the vast majority of his time on the perimeter chucking up jumpers.

His defence is nice, his playmaking for a big is outstanding, his jumper is consistently very good. 

But he cannot create offense in any way, shape or form.  He depends entirely on having other guys drawing defensive attention so that he can get wide open looks, which he rarely fails to knock down. That's why Horford would be a brilliant fit on a team like Golden State or Cleveland or Toronto - a team where you have at least two dominant stars who can draw attention so he can get open looks.

Horford is a third string star.  He should never be the #1 or #2 guy on any team, and if he is you're not going to be all that great.  If he's your third best guy (as he arguably was in Atlanta behind Millsap and Teague) then you're in good shape.

Also, I fail to understand how he's such a great fit in Boston.  Because he's a skilled passing big man who likes shooting long jumpers?  That seems like all we've had here for years now, it's the last thing we need. 

What we need is a big who can dominate the paint on defense and on the boards, at the very least.  Dwight Howard would have been a much better fit, as I had been saying all along. 

But I won't give up just yet, I'll give Horford a chance.  I just don't see anything changing, because the way he is playing right now is pretty much the same way he's been playing for the last 2-3 years.  Shooting jumpers.  No attempts to get to the line.  Zero post game.  No rebounding.

I'll give him credit for his D though, it's been very good.

He's too much of a nice guy though, I think, and that attitude seems to hurt him sometimes. He's like a rich man's Kelly Olynyk - so much talent, no passion or fire.  Just too passive emotionally, and TOO grounded and calm.  He needs a little Perk/KG in him. 

Needs a little crazy. 

Re: $26 million man
« Reply #93 on: December 15, 2016, 11:04:10 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Al is a stud. He does everything well and he makes the team so much better.

However, when the game slows down and it becomes about grabbing tough rebounds, getting individual defensive stops, and creating and making your own shots, Al Horford is not very good.

We barely look any better vs havingg Sully start last season

Horford should cut down shooting the 3s... Not very good

Re: $26 million man
« Reply #94 on: December 15, 2016, 11:11:16 AM »

Offline TrueFan

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Al is a stud. He does everything well and he makes the team so much better.

However, when the game slows down and it becomes about grabbing tough rebounds, getting individual defensive stops, and creating and making your own shots, Al Horford is not very good.

We barely look any better vs havingg Sully start last season

Horford should cut down shooting the 3s... Not very good
Hes shooting 36 percent from three so he should keep shooting them. He also needs a face up game because his post game is meh because has no touch around the rim. So taking those three point shots is necessary.

Re: $26 million man
« Reply #95 on: December 15, 2016, 11:21:43 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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Horford was getting pretty good looks last night.  It's just his shot wasn't really falling.  Can only recall one 3 attempt that I really took issue with. 

He's a much better player than Sully and much more cerebral.  Can't really say I miss Sully at all. 


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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #96 on: December 19, 2016, 01:46:33 AM »

Offline Smitty77

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I would be very glad to be proved wrong here and tonight Big Al had 11 in the 4th quarter!!!:-)))))))

Smitty77

Re: $26 million man
« Reply #97 on: December 19, 2016, 09:01:04 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I would be very glad to be proved wrong here and tonight Big Al had 11 in the 4th quarter!!!:-)))))))

Smitty77
1 good game every so often doesn't mean the signing was a good one.
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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #98 on: December 19, 2016, 09:38:28 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Yes, Al Horford is a great fit in Boston precisely because he is versatile and skilled on both ends.

I know lots of people want to see the Celts get a glass eating dunker to put at the five, but that sort of player would be a liability in brads system. You can't involve a hyperathlete with stone hands in a complicated dribble hand off action. You can't keep him on the floor late because he bricks free throws and can't get out of the way when Isaiah wants to drive the lane.

That's why the target for so long was Kevin love, another highly skilled big.

Love gets more boards, which means he would have been more acceptable to many folks around here who are convinced a big man making over a certain salary ought to pull down double digit boards to justify his existence.

However, Horford is an elite defender. I'll take the elite defender.
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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #99 on: December 19, 2016, 09:40:18 AM »

Offline pearljammer10

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The Horford signing was fantastic. I'm not really sure how anyone can be upset with signing him. He isn't a number one but he is a perfect compliment to whatever star we end up cashing in our assets on.

16 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, 2.3 blocks (6th in the league), 48% from the field, and 34% from 3 is pretty legit in terms of big men.

Re: $26 million man
« Reply #100 on: December 19, 2016, 09:59:55 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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He's goofy basterdo. I'm always amazed when his P and Pop jumpers end up in the basket. He just looks weird when he's dribbling or moving. I think his passing skills might be a little underappreciated.
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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #101 on: December 19, 2016, 10:00:18 AM »

Offline Moranis

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The Horford signing was fantastic. I'm not really sure how anyone can be upset with signing him. He isn't a number one but he is a perfect compliment to whatever star we end up cashing in our assets on.

16 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, 2.3 blocks (6th in the league), 48% from the field, and 34% from 3 is pretty legit in terms of big men.
what if Boston can't cash in the assets for a star?  You see that is my issue with the Horford signing and has always been my issue with it.  What is the point in signing a bunch of 2/3 type players when you don't have the 1?  You need the 1 to have any shot at winning a title and the 1 is the hardest position to fill in the game because there just aren't that many 1 or 1b players.  Horford is not that guy and frankly that guy isn't a free agent this summer either unless you think Griffin or Hayward is a 1 (I don't, though they are better than Horford). 

So how does Boston land the 1 this summer (because after this summer Boston won't have cap space unless it starts letting players go and the value of the BKN picks diminishes once that player is picked by Boston)?
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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #102 on: December 19, 2016, 10:05:25 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Moranis, do you think Boston's chances of getting that #1 to sign here, or want to be traded here, are higher or lower with Al Horford on the roster?


And what if this next summer passes and the Celts don't have "the guy," a.k.a. "potential MVP candidate" on the team?  What if Demarcus signs a $200 million extension per the new CBA, Griffin re-signs in LA for a similarly inconceivable amount, and the Celts are left out in the cold?

In that case, would you want the team to have a fire sale?  Unload anybody over 25 who isn't under contract beyond 2020?

To me, heading into next season with Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Al Horford on the roster is a pretty great starting point.  That group never wins a title without at least one more All-Star caliber player.  But with the right supporting cast that group could win a lot of games and give us a nice show in the playoffs.  I believe it. 

There has to be some value in that, right?  Unless it's championship or bust, in which case yeah, we're probably treading water hoping for a miracle here.
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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #103 on: December 19, 2016, 10:27:52 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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The Horford signing was fantastic. I'm not really sure how anyone can be upset with signing him. He isn't a number one but he is a perfect compliment to whatever star we end up cashing in our assets on.

16 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, 2.3 blocks (6th in the league), 48% from the field, and 34% from 3 is pretty legit in terms of big men.
Not sure? Let me help you (see highlight above).

Nothing like paying max salary to a starting C that's unable to crack 7 rpg...
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Re: $26 million man
« Reply #104 on: December 19, 2016, 10:42:02 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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The Horford signing was fantastic. I'm not really sure how anyone can be upset with signing him. He isn't a number one but he is a perfect compliment to whatever star we end up cashing in our assets on.

16 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, 2.3 blocks (6th in the league), 48% from the field, and 34% from 3 is pretty legit in terms of big men.
Not sure? Let me help you (see highlight above).

Nothing like paying max salary to a starting C that's unable to crack 7 rpg...

I'm guessing you must not be a big fan of Marc Gasol then, also. He's averaging about the same or less rebounds than Horford. Thing is, Horford can also play PF, and probably should. Whereas Gasol is strictly a C.