Will this finally be Olynyk's year?

[Moranis]

Man there sure are some negative nancys here.  I think there's a shot olynyk has a break-out season this year and locks in a starting role.

It is very very rare for a guy that has gotten consistent minutes for 3 years with nominal improvement in those 3 years, to all of a sudden have a coming out party in year 4.  I mean seriously, the only things KO had as a career high in year 3 were TOV% and 3PT%.  That doesn't strike me as a guy that is due to come out, especially a guy that had 3 years of college

I remain of the believe that Olynyk could average 16+ points efficiently with enough minutes.  I'm not expecting him to make a giant leap in his skillset, but I do still think it's possible he could find a level of consistency with a heightened role/minutes.

I believe it will come down to role/minutes for a lot of our guys.  I think there's a decent chance Avery or Jae could make an all-star team with enough minutes and a focused role.  NOt sure if any of them will get that opportunity here next year.

That is just KO playing more minutes, that isn't a breakout.  Of course, I have no idea if KO can really play more minutes.  He certainly had the opportunity to play more minutes last year and he couldn't do it.

Often "break-out" performances are purely minutes/role related - not an actual leap in ability.

Why do you think Kelly can't play more minutes and get more shot attempts?

In 8 games as a starter he averaged 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists with 48% shooting and 48% shooting from three in 26.8mpg.

I'm not guaranteeing a Olynyk break-out performance here... I just think it's possible this could be the year he finally solidifies a starting role, more minutes, and a more pronounced role in the offense.  I think it's already in him.  Who knows if it will come out.

Because the minutes were there for the taking last year and KO couldn't take them.  In fact, KO's minutes actually decreased and it isn't like he was hurt or anything.  KO has been given every opportunity to increase his role and he hasn't been able to do it.  I see no reason to believe this year will be any different, especially adding Horford, who will play a lot more minutes than Sully did, which means even less minutes will be available.   

[clover]

Man there sure are some negative nancys here.  I think there's a shot olynyk has a break-out season this year and locks in a starting role.

It is very very rare for a guy that has gotten consistent minutes for 3 years with nominal improvement in those 3 years, to all of a sudden have a coming out party in year 4.  I mean seriously, the only things KO had as a career high in year 3 were TOV% and 3PT%.  That doesn't strike me as a guy that is due to come out, especially a guy that had 3 years of college

I remain of the believe that Olynyk could average 16+ points efficiently with enough minutes.  I'm not expecting him to make a giant leap in his skillset, but I do still think it's possible he could find a level of consistency with a heightened role/minutes.

I believe it will come down to role/minutes for a lot of our guys.  I think there's a decent chance Avery or Jae could make an all-star team with enough minutes and a focused role.  NOt sure if any of them will get that opportunity here next year.

That is just KO playing more minutes, that isn't a breakout.  Of course, I have no idea if KO can really play more minutes.  He certainly had the opportunity to play more minutes last year and he couldn't do it.

Often "break-out" performances are purely minutes/role related - not an actual leap in ability.

Why do you think Kelly can't play more minutes and get more shot attempts?

In 8 games as a starter he averaged 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists with 48% shooting and 48% shooting from three in 26.8mpg.

I'm not guaranteeing a Olynyk break-out performance here... I just think it's possible this could be the year he finally solidifies a starting role, more minutes, and a more pronounced role in the offense.  I think it's already in him.  Who knows if it will come out.

Because the minutes were there for the taking last year and KO couldn't take them.  In fact, KO's minutes actually decreased and it isn't like he was hurt or anything.  KO has been given every opportunity to increase his role and he hasn't been able to do it.  I see no reason to believe this year will be any different, especially adding Horford, who will play a lot more minutes than Sully did, which means even less minutes will be available.   

Actually KO was hurt, and earlier in the year when he wasn't they had the David Lee issue going on. His defense has improved significantly each year, as has his TS%--going from .546 to .558 to .561--while he has likewise inched up his shots per 100 possessions. His WS/48 have also climbed from .101 to .120 to .141. He also had a big jump in 3pt%, having averaged .350 over his first two years, but hitting .405% last year. At the same time, his 3pt attempts per 100 have also climbed, from 4.2 to 6.2 to 7.3. His points per 36 have also gone from 15.6 to 16.6 to 17.7. His ORtg to Drtg differential has also gone from 0 to 3 to 7. Another biggie, his PF rate has plummeted from 8.3 to 7.5 to 5.7 per 100 possessions.

He's also a 7-footer, and such big men notoriously keep developing often long after smaller players have peaked.

[LarBrd33]

Moranis, oly is coming off a season averaging 20 minutes.  Do you find it unfathomable he will end up averaging 30+ at some point in his career?   I think it's possible. You might be right in that it will not happen here.  Could be a situation like Courtney Lee or tony Allen where he leaves Boston and finds a starting role elsewhere... But I believe Kelly has it in him.  And with more minutes and more touches, I think we'd both agree his stats would increase.   The greater production would be labeled "a breakthrough"  even if his level of play remained the same.  Isn't that why the "Playoff Rondo" myth started?  It's easy to have more stats when you are averaging 44 minutes per night in the playoffs. 

 There's a chance oly's opportunity happens this season.  But maybe he just backs up Horford and Amir.  The thing is, he's possibly the best shooter on the entire team.  The team lacks shooting.  I'd be interested in giving our best shooter more than 8 shot attempts per night. 

[dannyboy35]

Moranis, oly is coming off a season averaging 20 minutes.  Do you find it unfathomable he will end up averaging 30+ at some point in his career?   I think it's possible. You might be right in that it will not happen here.  Could be a situation like Courtney Lee or tony Allen where he leaves Boston and finds a starting role elsewhere... But I believe Kelly has it in him.  And with more minutes and more touches, I think we'd both agree his stats would increase.   The greater production would be labeled "a breakthrough"  even if his level of play remained the same.  Isn't that why the "Playoff Rondo" myth started?  It's easy to have more stats when you are averaging 44 minutes per night in the playoffs. 

 There's a chance oly's opportunity happens this season.  But maybe he just backs up Horford and Amir.  The thing is, he's possibly the best shooter on the entire team.  The team lacks shooting.  I'd be interested in giving our best shooter more than 8 shot attempts per night.

I think Kelly just needs the minutes. The dude is skilled.

[Moranis]

Man there sure are some negative nancys here.  I think there's a shot olynyk has a break-out season this year and locks in a starting role.

It is very very rare for a guy that has gotten consistent minutes for 3 years with nominal improvement in those 3 years, to all of a sudden have a coming out party in year 4.  I mean seriously, the only things KO had as a career high in year 3 were TOV% and 3PT%.  That doesn't strike me as a guy that is due to come out, especially a guy that had 3 years of college

I remain of the believe that Olynyk could average 16+ points efficiently with enough minutes.  I'm not expecting him to make a giant leap in his skillset, but I do still think it's possible he could find a level of consistency with a heightened role/minutes.

I believe it will come down to role/minutes for a lot of our guys.  I think there's a decent chance Avery or Jae could make an all-star team with enough minutes and a focused role.  NOt sure if any of them will get that opportunity here next year.

That is just KO playing more minutes, that isn't a breakout.  Of course, I have no idea if KO can really play more minutes.  He certainly had the opportunity to play more minutes last year and he couldn't do it.

Often "break-out" performances are purely minutes/role related - not an actual leap in ability.

Why do you think Kelly can't play more minutes and get more shot attempts?

In 8 games as a starter he averaged 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists with 48% shooting and 48% shooting from three in 26.8mpg.

I'm not guaranteeing a Olynyk break-out performance here... I just think it's possible this could be the year he finally solidifies a starting role, more minutes, and a more pronounced role in the offense.  I think it's already in him.  Who knows if it will come out.

Because the minutes were there for the taking last year and KO couldn't take them.  In fact, KO's minutes actually decreased and it isn't like he was hurt or anything.  KO has been given every opportunity to increase his role and he hasn't been able to do it.  I see no reason to believe this year will be any different, especially adding Horford, who will play a lot more minutes than Sully did, which means even less minutes will be available.   

Actually KO was hurt, and earlier in the year when he wasn't they had the David Lee issue going on. His defense has improved significantly each year, as has his TS%--going from .546 to .558 to .561--while he has likewise inched up his shots per 100 possessions. His WS/48 have also climbed from .101 to .120 to .141. He also had a big jump in 3pt%, having averaged .350 over his first two years, but hitting .405% last year. At the same time, his 3pt attempts per 100 have also climbed, from 4.2 to 6.2 to 7.3. His points per 36 have also gone from 15.6 to 16.6 to 17.7. His ORtg to Drtg differential has also gone from 0 to 3 to 7. Another biggie, his PF rate has plummeted from 8.3 to 7.5 to 5.7 per 100 possessions.

He's also a 7-footer, and such big men notoriously keep developing often long after smaller players have peaked.

and yet December and January were his best months, February (before his midseason ailment) was his worst month followed closely by April.  You see that is the thing with KO, he has his moments, but he is also terrible for long stretches and that is why he hasn't gotten more minutes.  He just doesn't have the consistency to earn them.  KO is what he is, but he isn't going to be more than that and I'd be surprised if he played more than 25 minutes a night (which is a solid 3 minutes more than his career best). 

[Moranis]

Moranis, oly is coming off a season averaging 20 minutes.  Do you find it unfathomable he will end up averaging 30+ at some point in his career?   I think it's possible. You might be right in that it will not happen here.  Could be a situation like Courtney Lee or tony Allen where he leaves Boston and finds a starting role elsewhere... But I believe Kelly has it in him.  And with more minutes and more touches, I think we'd both agree his stats would increase.   The greater production would be labeled "a breakthrough"  even if his level of play remained the same.  Isn't that why the "Playoff Rondo" myth started?  It's easy to have more stats when you are averaging 44 minutes per night in the playoffs. 

 There's a chance oly's opportunity happens this season.  But maybe he just backs up Horford and Amir.  The thing is, he's possibly the best shooter on the entire team.  The team lacks shooting.  I'd be interested in giving our best shooter more than 8 shot attempts per night.

no the playoff Rondo myth started because Rondo was more focused and tried harder more consistently in the playoffs, but he still had his terrible games where he didn't do much of anything.  That isn't the case with KO.  He is just an average player. I don't expect KO to ever get anywhere near 30 minutes a night, especially in Boston.  He is just too inconsistent, I mean just look at December, that is pretty representative of typical KO.  28 points in 37 minutes on 52% shooting one night to the very next game shooting 31% in 23 minutes scoring 8 points, to 5 points on 29% shooting in 22 minutes, to 0 points in 16 minutes, to 8 points in 15 minutes on 60% all in the span of 8 days.  That is typical KO.  No consistency at all and that is why he won't be more than what he is. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/gamelog/2016/
 
or

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2489663/kelly-olynyk

[moiso]

Moranis, oly is coming off a season averaging 20 minutes.  Do you find it unfathomable he will end up averaging 30+ at some point in his career?   I think it's possible. You might be right in that it will not happen here.  Could be a situation like Courtney Lee or tony Allen where he leaves Boston and finds a starting role elsewhere... But I believe Kelly has it in him.  And with more minutes and more touches, I think we'd both agree his stats would increase.   The greater production would be labeled "a breakthrough"  even if his level of play remained the same.  Isn't that why the "Playoff Rondo" myth started?  It's easy to have more stats when you are averaging 44 minutes per night in the playoffs. 

 There's a chance oly's opportunity happens this season.  But maybe he just backs up Horford and Amir.  The thing is, he's possibly the best shooter on the entire team.  The team lacks shooting.  I'd be interested in giving our best shooter more than 8 shot attempts per night.

Agree with this.

[LarBrd33]

Moranis, oly is coming off a season averaging 20 minutes.  Do you find it unfathomable he will end up averaging 30+ at some point in his career?   I think it's possible. You might be right in that it will not happen here.  Could be a situation like Courtney Lee or tony Allen where he leaves Boston and finds a starting role elsewhere... But I believe Kelly has it in him.  And with more minutes and more touches, I think we'd both agree his stats would increase.   The greater production would be labeled "a breakthrough"  even if his level of play remained the same.  Isn't that why the "Playoff Rondo" myth started?  It's easy to have more stats when you are averaging 44 minutes per night in the playoffs. 

 There's a chance oly's opportunity happens this season.  But maybe he just backs up Horford and Amir.  The thing is, he's possibly the best shooter on the entire team.  The team lacks shooting.  I'd be interested in giving our best shooter more than 8 shot attempts per night.

no the playoff Rondo myth started because Rondo was more focused and tried harder more consistently in the playoffs, but he still had his terrible games where he didn't do much of anything.  That isn't the case with KO.  He is just an average player. I don't expect KO to ever get anywhere near 30 minutes a night, especially in Boston.  He is just too inconsistent, I mean just look at December, that is pretty representative of typical KO.  28 points in 37 minutes on 52% shooting one night to the very next game shooting 31% in 23 minutes scoring 8 points, to 5 points on 29% shooting in 22 minutes, to 0 points in 16 minutes, to 8 points in 15 minutes on 60% all in the span of 8 days.  That is typical KO.  No consistency at all and that is why he won't be more than what he is. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/gamelog/2016/
 
or

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2489663/kelly-olynyk

Man... arguing about Rondo is so retro. 

Rondo's career per-36:  12 points, 9.5 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 2 steals with 47%/29%/61% shooting. 

Playoff Rondo per-36:  13.6 points, 8.6 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 45%/28%/65% shooting.

Same [dang] player.  Getting 44 minutes a night inflated his stats.  Everyone remembers that break-out 2012 playoff performance where he put up per-36 of 14.6 points, 10.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 2 steals.  While it was slightly better, it wasn't really all that much different than his stats the following regular season of 13.2 points, 10.6 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 1.8 steals per-36. 

Role/touches makes a difference.

Olynyk has had to balance minutes with other bigs.  Whether that has been Bass, Sully, Zeller, Lee, etc... you're right in that he hasn't received a consistent run of starter minutes, but I still do wonder how much of that was because we were showcasing different players or just trying to balance a lot of comparable-level guys at once.

Consider Olynyk has consistently put up per-36 stats of 16.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals with 47%/37%/75% shooting... and that his stats didn't take a hit in any of the past three seasons during games in which he was fed more minutes.

In 18 career games in which he's received 30-39 miutes he's averaged 18.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists with 56%/41%/80% shooting. 

In his 30 career starts, he's averaged 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists with 50%/42%/78% shooting in 26.7mpg

I still fail to see why Olynyk couldn't put up 15+ points in 30+ minutes at some point in his career and have it labelled "a breakthrough" season.  And I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it happen this year.   I'll be curious to see how he fits next to Horford.  It might work.  He's arguably the best shooter on the team, has consistently been towards the top of the team in PER, and depending on how it works defensively this might be his year to finally take a bigger role.

[Moranis]

Moranis, oly is coming off a season averaging 20 minutes.  Do you find it unfathomable he will end up averaging 30+ at some point in his career?   I think it's possible. You might be right in that it will not happen here.  Could be a situation like Courtney Lee or tony Allen where he leaves Boston and finds a starting role elsewhere... But I believe Kelly has it in him.  And with more minutes and more touches, I think we'd both agree his stats would increase.   The greater production would be labeled "a breakthrough"  even if his level of play remained the same.  Isn't that why the "Playoff Rondo" myth started?  It's easy to have more stats when you are averaging 44 minutes per night in the playoffs. 

 There's a chance oly's opportunity happens this season.  But maybe he just backs up Horford and Amir.  The thing is, he's possibly the best shooter on the entire team.  The team lacks shooting.  I'd be interested in giving our best shooter more than 8 shot attempts per night.

no the playoff Rondo myth started because Rondo was more focused and tried harder more consistently in the playoffs, but he still had his terrible games where he didn't do much of anything.  That isn't the case with KO.  He is just an average player. I don't expect KO to ever get anywhere near 30 minutes a night, especially in Boston.  He is just too inconsistent, I mean just look at December, that is pretty representative of typical KO.  28 points in 37 minutes on 52% shooting one night to the very next game shooting 31% in 23 minutes scoring 8 points, to 5 points on 29% shooting in 22 minutes, to 0 points in 16 minutes, to 8 points in 15 minutes on 60% all in the span of 8 days.  That is typical KO.  No consistency at all and that is why he won't be more than what he is. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/gamelog/2016/
 
or

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2489663/kelly-olynyk

Man... arguing about Rondo is so retro. 

Rondo's career per-36:  12 points, 9.5 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 2 steals with 47%/29%/61% shooting. 

Playoff Rondo per-36:  13.6 points, 8.6 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 45%/28%/65% shooting.

Same [dang] player.  Getting 44 minutes a night inflated his stats.  Everyone remembers that break-out 2012 playoff performance where he put up per-36 of 14.6 points, 10.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 2 steals.  While it was slightly better, it wasn't really all that much different than his stats the following regular season of 13.2 points, 10.6 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 1.8 steals per-36. 

Role/touches makes a difference.

Olynyk has had to balance minutes with other bigs.  Whether that has been Bass, Sully, Zeller, Lee, etc... you're right in that he hasn't received a consistent run of starter minutes, but I still do wonder how much of that was because we were showcasing different players or just trying to balance a lot of comparable-level guys at once.

Consider Olynyk has consistently put up per-36 stats of 16.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals with 47%/37%/75% shooting... and that his stats didn't take a hit in any of the past three seasons during games in which he was fed more minutes.

In 18 career games in which he's received 30-39 miutes he's averaged 18.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists with 56%/41%/80% shooting. 

In his 30 career starts, he's averaged 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists with 50%/42%/78% shooting in 26.7mpg

I still fail to see why Olynyk couldn't put up 15+ points in 30+ minutes at some point in his career and have it labelled "a breakthrough" season.  And I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it happen this year.   I'll be curious to see how he fits next to Horford.  It might work.  He's arguably the best shooter on the team, has consistently been towards the top of the team in PER, and depending on how it works defensively this might be his year to finally take a bigger role.

Rondo's per minutes are about the same because he would have an epic game and then he would have a terrible game.  His epic games were just more epic and that is what created the playoff myth of Rondo.  And for the record Rondo went from about 37 mpg to 40 mpg, during his prime.  I mean just take the Miami series in 11/12, everyone remembers the 44 point, 10 assist, 8 rebound game in game 2 where Rondo shot 16 of 24.  Nobody remembered the 7 point, 13 assist, 6 rebound game in game 5 where Rondo shot 3 of 15.  Of course Boston won game 5 and lost game 2, so maybe epic Rondo wasn't best for the team.  Over the course of a season Rondo would always have the occasional epic game mixed in with the average games and followed up by the terrible games, those were just magnified in the post-season and his epic games showed off the HOF talent that he could never consistently bring.  It wasn't solely about an increase in minutes, it was the inconsistent player showing up big and then coming back down, just with everyone failing to remember the valleys and only remembering the peaks.  I had a lot of conversations on this board about that exact thing and was constantly reminding everyone that Rondo was inconsistent and could not be trusted to be the face of the franchise for that reason.  I was itching to trade him long before Ainge pulled the trigger, because I saw the end coming and knew he was way overrated for what he consistently brought.  Real shame Rondo couldn't bring it every night as he could have been an all timer, but that wasn't who he was.  Rondo is probably a decent enough comparison of Olynyk in that regard.  KO, like Rondo, is a terribly inconsistent player, though unlike Rondo, Olynyk will never be able to take over a game and play like a HOFer for the long stretches that Rondo was able to do.  But that is fine, as long as no one expect Olynyk to like they expected Rondo to.

[LarBrd33]

That 44 point outburst happened with Rondo playing all 53 minutes of an overtime game.  The "playoff rondo" myth started during an offseason in which he literally averaged an absurd 42.6mpg.   Rondo has since been exposed.  The myth is dead.  If you shovel 43 minutes per night into him and let him control the ball, he'll go right back to putting up epic stats.  More minutes + more touches = more stats.   I'd rather not get into it more than that.   I'm having flashbacks to when Tim went by the BBallEd name.  Let's leave the Rondo debates back in 2013 where they belong.

I still have faith that Oly could have a big season if his role becomes more defined and his minutes increase.   I guess we'll just wait and see what happens. 

[alldaboston]

Maybe Playoff Rondo was a myth, but what about National TV Rondo? If only we were able to get those stats.

[SHAQATTACK]

KO the next Bird 

[Celtics18]

My guess for front court minutes for the '16-'17 season:

Horford: 28

Olynyk: 28

Johnson:  20

Jerebko: 20

[Moranis]

That 44 point outburst happened with Rondo playing all 53 minutes of an overtime game.  The "playoff rondo" myth started during an offseason in which he literally averaged an absurd 42.6mpg.   Rondo has since been exposed.  The myth is dead.  If you shovel 43 minutes per night into him and let him control the ball, he'll go right back to putting up epic stats.  More minutes + more touches = more stats.   I'd rather not get into it more than that.   I'm having flashbacks to when Tim went by the BBallEd name.  Let's leave the Rondo debates back in 2013 where they belong.

I still have faith that Oly could have a big season if his role becomes more defined and his minutes increase.   I guess we'll just wait and see what happens.

Sure he played more minutes that year, but his scoring per 36 was also higher so he did actually increase his output, just not appreciably.  And here is the thing his totals for that season were just 17 and 12.  He scored 44 points in a game and over 19 games averaged just 17 ppg.  That was my point then and is my point now.  Rondo was a terribly inconsistent player, who was so incredible when he was on that people just disregarded when he was off. 

Olynyk, like Rondo, is incredibly inconsistent, however unlike Rondo, Olynyk's peaks aren't HOF quality.  He could never take over and dominant a game like Rondo could, and that is why he won't ever be much more than he is right now i.e. a very nice 6th man/spot starter type player. 

[Celtics18]

That 44 point outburst happened with Rondo playing all 53 minutes of an overtime game.  The "playoff rondo" myth started during an offseason in which he literally averaged an absurd 42.6mpg.   Rondo has since been exposed.  The myth is dead.  If you shovel 43 minutes per night into him and let him control the ball, he'll go right back to putting up epic stats.  More minutes + more touches = more stats.   I'd rather not get into it more than that.   I'm having flashbacks to when Tim went by the BBallEd name.  Let's leave the Rondo debates back in 2013 where they belong.

I still have faith that Oly could have a big season if his role becomes more defined and his minutes increase.   I guess we'll just wait and see what happens.

Sure he played more minutes that year, but his scoring per 36 was also higher so he did actually increase his output, just not appreciably.  And here is the thing his totals for that season were just 17 and 12.  He scored 44 points in a game and over 19 games averaged just 17 ppg.  That was my point then and is my point now.  Rondo was a terribly inconsistent player, who was so incredible when he was on that people just disregarded when he was off. 

Olynyk, like Rondo, is incredibly inconsistent, however unlike Rondo, Olynyk's peaks aren't HOF quality.  He could never take over and dominant a game like Rondo could, and that is why he won't ever be much more than he is right now i.e. a very nice 6th man/spot starter type player.

You use the term "incredibly inconsistent," but I think you'll find that if you did a look into consistency levels of payers around the league, there's nothing "incredible" about either Olynyk or Rondo's "inconsistency."