Will this finally be Olynyk's year?

[Moranis]

Kind of agree here. He's very "Jeff Greenish" in regards to production at a consistency stand point.

I think he's maybe kind of "Jeff Greenish" in terms of his willingness to assert his own offense.

He's very UN-Greenish in most other respects, though.  The thing that made Jeff Green so infuriating was not simply that he didn't always assert himself offensively; it was that when he wasn't asserting himself offensively, he was basically useless.

Kelly, even when he isn't scoring, is an extremely valuable floor spacing presence, a solid positional defender, a good passer, and an adequate rebounder.  It's usually useful to have him out on the floor.

Green was always a pretty solid defender.  I think he was a better defender than Olynyk has shown to be thus far.  No argument from me on the other stuff though, Green was a terrible passer for a SF and a poor rebounder. 

[billysan]

For me the fact that we showed Sullinger  the door speaks volumes.

We needed to have that length and ability alongside Horford.  Amir will make a nice backup and Zeller will eat minutes as required. To me this means the organization believes in Kelly and he has always been part of the future. I will not be surprised to see Kelly start and play 25 mpg this year.

 Many players  get injured and come back fine. Imo this going to happen here. At least Danny and Brad think so.

[PhoSita]

Kind of agree here. He's very "Jeff Greenish" in regards to production at a consistency stand point.

I think he's maybe kind of "Jeff Greenish" in terms of his willingness to assert his own offense.

He's very UN-Greenish in most other respects, though.  The thing that made Jeff Green so infuriating was not simply that he didn't always assert himself offensively; it was that when he wasn't asserting himself offensively, he was basically useless.

Kelly, even when he isn't scoring, is an extremely valuable floor spacing presence, a solid positional defender, a good passer, and an adequate rebounder.  It's usually useful to have him out on the floor.

Green was always a pretty solid defender.  I think he was a better defender than Olynyk has shown to be thus far.  No argument from me on the other stuff though, Green was a terrible passer for a SF and a poor rebounder.

Green was a solid individual defender, but like many physically gifted but mentally aloof players, he struggled to maintain focus off the ball.  He wasn't a guy you wanted try to do a lot of switches or cover a guy who was constantly running off screens or whatever.  But against an iso-heavy power wing, he was fine.

His weakness as a defensive rebounder was an issue, though.  Rebounding is part of defense.


Olynyk's advanced defensive stats are really quite excellent.  I think those stats overstate the case, but Olynyk is cleary a solid positional defender.  You don't want him as your main guy trying to cover the back line against pick and rolls, but he's not going to get victimized out there if the other team tries to zero in on him, at least not most of the time.

I think Olynyk has a little bit of the "Steve Novak Effect" working in his favor, too.  Players see a goofy white guy and they attempt shots they otherwise wouldn't take, which actually results in worse scoring efficiency.

Kelly also has really good hands for a big.  He gets into passing lanes a lot for a guy his size.

[celticsclay]

Kind of agree here. He's very "Jeff Greenish" in regards to production at a consistency stand point.

I think he's maybe kind of "Jeff Greenish" in terms of his willingness to assert his own offense.

He's very UN-Greenish in most other respects, though.  The thing that made Jeff Green so infuriating was not simply that he didn't always assert himself offensively; it was that when he wasn't asserting himself offensively, he was basically useless.

Kelly, even when he isn't scoring, is an extremely valuable floor spacing presence, a solid positional defender, a good passer, and an adequate rebounder.  It's usually useful to have him out on the floor.

Green was always a pretty solid defender.  I think he was a better defender than Olynyk has shown to be thus far.  No argument from me on the other stuff though, Green was a terrible passer for a SF and a poor rebounder.

Green was a solid individual defender, but like many physically gifted but mentally aloof players, he struggled to maintain focus off the ball.  He wasn't a guy you wanted try to do a lot of switches or cover a guy who was constantly running off screens or whatever.  But against an iso-heavy power wing, he was fine.

His weakness as a defensive rebounder was an issue, though.  Rebounding is part of defense.


Olynyk's advanced defensive stats are really quite excellent.  I think those stats overstate the case, but Olynyk is cleary a solid positional defender.  You don't want him as your main guy trying to cover the back line against pick and rolls, but he's not going to get victimized out there if the other team tries to zero in on him, at least not most of the time.

I think Olynyk has a little bit of the "Steve Novak Effect" working in his favor, too.  Players see a goofy white guy and they attempt shots they otherwise wouldn't take, which actually results in worse scoring efficiency.

Kelly also has really good hands for a big.  He gets into passing lanes a lot for a guy his size.

This is hilarious and awesome

[SHAQATTACK]

I don't think we ll see KO s "A " game his best offense till near Xmas or 2017 .  He be trying out his healed shoulder , testing the healing and think too much ...which is half of his problem to begin with.

The second half of the season could be KO come out party .  We ll need him to be healthy with his best offensive game going to advance in playoffs.

[PhoSita]

This is hilarious and awesome

I can't take credit.  I forget where I read about it, but there was an article talking about the Steve Novak effect a while back.  I think it was from when he was on the Knicks.

EDIT: Credit to Henry Abbott

http://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/53195/the-defense-of-a-shooter

More obvious than Novak's lack of speed, however, are the wide eyes of his opponents. Basically, what the video shows is player after player with an almost visible thought bubble over their heads: HOLY COW I HAVE STEVE NOVAK ON ME AND HE'S HORRIBLE. TIME TO FIRE AWAY.

Why is Novak's reputation so bad? He is slow. He is scrawny. Whatever a defensive stopper looks like -- he's not it. Race is probably part of it, too; whiteness does not help a defensive reputation in the NBA, something players and coaches occasionally will admit.

Whatever the motivation, the video is a parade of aggressive decision-making by the second-tier offensive players Novak typically guards.

[slamtheking]

I believe Kelly is what he is. He'll play 24 mpg or so and put up 10 + 5 with good advanced stats. Some games he will look like a great offensive weapon, other games indecisive and largely invisible on the court.

sadly, I think this is likely to be the closest guess as to what happens this season.

if KO showed up and played aggressively every game, he'd make enough of a difference to make the C's clearly the second best team in the conference behind Cleveland. 

[saltlover]

It's all really about expectations.  Olynyk is a very complimentary player.  He can pass well for his position, and shoot well for his position, so you can use him in a variety of lineups.  At the same time, he's not a guy who will ever be capable of being a go-to guy.  His defense is adequate, but not game-changing.

People like to compare him to Ryan Anderson.  I get that, but disagree.  Anderson is a volume shooting big.  Olynyk is not.  I think Olynyk is more like if Harrison Barnes were a center, with maybe a little less defense (but, again, adequate defense).  He's not a guy who will carry your team.  He is a guy who makes most of your lineups better.

What's that worth?  Well, Barnes obviously got the max, although many thought that was an overpay.  Perhaps Barnes will become a volume-scorer -- I personally am unconvinced.  But for how Olynyk fits on a team -- that's how I see him.  Sort of a 4th-6th man, who can bring things to the table that you might want starting or might want with the bench, depending on your team.  He'll seemingly vanish for large portions of the game, but when all is said and done he'll have decent counting stars and advanced stats will indicate he's a net positive when he's out on the court.

[vjcsmoke]

The Novak effect?  LOL.  Nice read, TP for you!

Yes, the thing about Kelly is that he seems to have all the offensive skills - passing, 3 point shooting, occasional dribble drive when closed out.  And adequate defensive skills.  But he just hasn't reached that 'next level' yet that we're waiting for.

Is this just a question of waiting for him to mature, or what?

I really don't have much doubt that he's going to be making 35-40% of his 3 point attempts this upcoming season. 

His shooting percentages last season were 45.5/40.5/75.0.

And that's really quite good to have in a 7 foot package.  The dilemma is that KO hasn't developed into more with the gifts that he has offensively, and the innate height advantage he enjoys against most defenders.

This is hilarious and awesome

I can't take credit.  I forget where I read about it, but there was an article talking about the Steve Novak effect a while back.  I think it was from when he was on the Knicks.

EDIT: Credit to Henry Abbott

http://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/53195/the-defense-of-a-shooter

More obvious than Novak's lack of speed, however, are the wide eyes of his opponents. Basically, what the video shows is player after player with an almost visible thought bubble over their heads: HOLY COW I HAVE STEVE NOVAK ON ME AND HE'S HORRIBLE. TIME TO FIRE AWAY.

Why is Novak's reputation so bad? He is slow. He is scrawny. Whatever a defensive stopper looks like -- he's not it. Race is probably part of it, too; whiteness does not help a defensive reputation in the NBA, something players and coaches occasionally will admit.

Whatever the motivation, the video is a parade of aggressive decision-making by the second-tier offensive players Novak typically guards.

[trickybilly]

If he can play 4 more mins, hold his 3%, reduce turnovers a bit: that will qualify for me...

[Neurotic Guy]

Has there been a report about the degree to which the shoulder surgery and rehab has impacted conditioning, strengthening, and his ability to work on his game this off-season?  If he's essentially been on the shelf the entire off-season, how can we expect Kelly to be better in November than he was in April?

[billysan]

Has there been a report about the degree to which the shoulder surgery and rehab has impacted conditioning, strengthening, and his ability to work on his game this off-season?  If he's essentially been on the shelf the entire off-season, how can we expect Kelly to be better in November than he was in April?

Good question.

I want to believe Danny has confidence it will be OK. No way he would let Sullinger  go if he was worried would he?  Maybe that's why he resigned Zeller  as insurance? I can't belive he would rely on Jordan Mickey  for the only big man depth behind Johnson and Jerekbo.

At a minimum he would have brought over Zizic  to compete for an end of the bench center role I would think. Or signed a cheap FA big.

[nickagneta]

Kelly Olynyk will be what Kelly Olynyk has been since he got here. He will be 26 by the time this season is over. He isn't going to suddenly change who he is and how he plays at his age. He isn't going to blossom into some star, #1,2 or 3 option, fierce rebounder, great defender, mentally and physically tough as nails guy.

He is going to shoot well and pass well. But with that comes a reluctance to shoot and a need to overpass the ball. He will be a poor to meh, okay rebounder. You won't catch him out of positional team defensive positions very often but he isn't a great option to cover perimeter 4's or big 5's individually. He will be inconsistent and reluctant in his play and he will at some time miss a bunch of games because he is a bit injury prone.

Stats similar to last year is what I would expect.

[alldaboston]

Honestly, probably not. What we've seen the past 3 years is what we're gonna get from KO. Plain and simple. That's not a knock on his skill set. He's a talented big who does a lot of good stuff (albeit as a lesser frequency than we would like), but it's not like he's bad or anything. Sure it would be nice to see an angry and attacking and more consistent  KO, but I'm kinda ok with how he is now.

[ManUp]

Kelly Olynyk will be what Kelly Olynyk has been since he got here. He will be 26 by the time this season is over. He isn't going to suddenly change who he is and how he plays at his age. He isn't going to blossom into some star, #1,2 or 3 option, fierce rebounder, great defender, mentally and physically tough as nails guy.

He is going to shoot well and pass well. But with that comes a reluctance to shoot and a need to overpass the ball. He will be a poor to meh, okay rebounder. You won't catch him out of positional team defensive positions very often but he isn't a great option to cover perimeter 4's or big 5's individually. He will be inconsistent and reluctant in his play and he will at some time miss a bunch of games because he is a bit injury prone.

Stats similar to last year is what I would expect.

This.

Kelly is the glue guy role player he was always projected to be since he was drafted.

His combination of poor speed, poor length, and poor strength will continue to relegate him to role player status.

He's a good 7 or 8 guy not a starter.