How much better are the Celts with the addition of Horford, Green, Brown?

[jambr380]

Horford is a big addition.  Seems most expect us to win about 55 games this year.    Green and Brown are less significant in the short-term.  If we keep Brown, he's someone who hopefully will make a major impact long-term.

On paper, we have a real shot of making the ECF this season.  I'd say as long as Golden State is healthy, every other team is further away from winning a title than they were last season.

I never thought I'd hear you say this. Is the sky beginning to fall where any one else lives?! How about our European Celtic fans? Warning, please.

LB isn't as high on Toronto since they lost Biyombo 

And LB has been quite optimistic since January, or so - perhaps a New Year's resolution (?)

[alldaboston]

Horford is a big addition.  Seems most expect us to win about 55 games this year.    Green and Brown are less significant in the short-term.  If we keep Brown, he's someone who hopefully will make a major impact long-term.

On paper, we have a real shot of making the ECF this season.  I'd say as long as Golden State is healthy, every other team is further away from winning a title than they were last season.

I never thought I'd hear you say this. Is the sky beginning to fall where any one else lives?! How about our European Celtic fans? Warning, please.

LB isn't as high on Toronto since they lost Biyombo 

And LB has been quite optimistic since January, or so - perhaps a New Year's resolution (?)

Yeah but when we had pessimistic LarBrd, the nets were the 3rd worst team in the NBA. Will optimistic LarBrd make the nets a playoff team??? Lol

[LarBrd33]

Horford is a big addition.  Seems most expect us to win about 55 games this year.    Green and Brown are less significant in the short-term.  If we keep Brown, he's someone who hopefully will make a major impact long-term.

On paper, we have a real shot of making the ECF this season.  I'd say as long as Golden State is healthy, every other team is further away from winning a title than they were last season.

I never thought I'd hear you say this. Is the sky beginning to fall where any one else lives?! How about our European Celtic fans? Warning, please.

LB isn't as high on Toronto since they lost Biyombo 

And LB has been quite optimistic since January, or so - perhaps a New Year's resolution (?)

My optimism about the Celtics directly coincides with positive things happening to the team.  It's a weird quirk I have... I get excited when there is an actual reason to get excited.   

The team is in great shape.  I'm pumped.  We were a borderline 50 win team and we just added a guy who could theoretically push us all the way to 60 (based on the impact he made in Atlanta).  I hope we stay healthy and everything meshes well.   I'm also cautiously optimistic that Marcus Smart (if we keep him) will show real improvement in year 3.  We saw flashes in the playoffs.  I hope things finally click for him on offense.    I've was also on board with the Jaylen Brown draft pick.  I didn't want us taking a 23 year old Senior.  I'm thrilled we took a 19 year old with a high ceiling.  I don't expect him to make much of an impact in year 1, but I'm optimistic that if we keep him, he'll develop into a great player years from now.    I'm also still excited about the possibility of adding one of those Philly bigs, but I'm not holding my breathe and getting my hopes up until I see an actual deal.

I like the Gerald Green signing as well.  He showed some signs a couple years ago.  He could be instant offense off the bench.  He might struggle.  It could go either way with him. 

Also, Brooklyn didn't make any significant improvements, so I'm hopeful they will stink again again this year.

There's really no reason to be down on this team.  Ainge has done a phenomenal job.  We came close to taking over the league, had we signed Durant.  The only buzz kill of the whole thing is that Golden State has seemingly made this season (and the next several after this season) a foregone conclusion.   Just have to hope for some injuries or that team to implode.   Otherwise, they should dominate this league until another superteam forms.

[crimson_stallion]

Horford also isn't the rebounder Sullinger

Put Sully along Milsap and he would not get as many rebounds as Horford did.   Horford for his career is a better rebounder than Sully.   It was only when Milsap came that his numbers dipped.  Relax, all the teams passed on spending big bucks on Sully, it is going to be ok.   Our rebounding will be ok, Horford only averaged one less RPG and he can block shots and shoot better than Jared.

For arguments sake, Horford is not a better rebounder than Sully for his career.
Sully's career average per 36 is 11.1 rebounds per game with a 17.1 rebound %.

Horford for his career averages 9.1 rebounds per game with a 15.4% rebound rate.

Last season Sully averaged 12.7 rebounds per 36 with a 17.1% rebound rate.
Horford averaged 8.2 rebounds with a 12.4% rebound rate.

You can argue that playing with Millsap hurts Horford's numbers, but Sullinger played away from the basket for significant minutes on offense, which hurts his.


Although Horford is still an upgrade at almost every other facet of the game, Jared Sullinger is a better rebounder than Horford.

It's a little unfair to use per-36 for Sully, because he's neither averaged anywhere near those minutes nor can he with his weight. His stamina just isn't there with his weight, so it doesn't really matter if he has a higher per-36 rebounding percentage and/or numbers if he can only effectively play 25 minutes a night compared to Horford's 36 that he can actually play.

That said, we'll see Horford's rebounding numbers significantly increase this year without having to compete with Milsap and splitter for boards. I bet Horford averages somewhere around 17.5 and 9.5 this year.

That's not true - it isn't unfair to use those numbers at all.

Why?

Because the question isn't "who will record more rebounds?", it is "who is a better rebounder?".

If you want to determine who is a better rebounder, you have to look at rebound rates, not totals.  How much those players are on the court is irrelevant to this specific argument.  What we are asking is which player collects more rebounds WHILE they are on the court.

The answer to that question is Jared Sullinger.

The average rebound rate for an NBA center is around 15%.  Horford has not averaged singificantly above that since around 6 years ago, back in 2010/11, when he was 24 years old.  He has managed a rebound rate of >15% only once in the 5 years, with his overall average (13.8%) over that stretch being significantly below average for an NBA center.

Jared Sullinger has played only four NBA seasons, and the lowest rebound rate of his career was 15.5%, averaged in 2014/15.  He has otherwise averaged 17.5% (12/13), 16.7% (13/14) and 18.7% (15/16).

You also dramatically overrate Paul Millsap's impact on rebounding.  Over his career Millsap has averaged only 9.2 Rebounds Per-36, compared to Horford's 9.6 Rebounds Per 36.  Millsap's career rebound rate?  15.0%, which is a tad lower then Horford's 15.4%.

To put that into perspective, Amir Johnson averaged 9.2 Rebounds Per 36 with a rebound rate of 14.9% for his career.  Pretty much lineball with Millsap, and barely a smidgen below Horford. 

Millsap is a solid rebounder, nothing more.  He's certainly nowhere near good enough to justify Horford's massive rebounding drop over the past 5 years. 

Neither of the two is on Sullinger's level, and that's coming from me - let's just say I am hardly Sully's biggest fan.
 
I'm not being negative here, I'm just being realistic.  As it stands right now, Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko are our two best rebounders.  Unless Horford suddenly returns to his 24-year-old form, rebounding is going to be a significant weakness for us. 

We just have to hope that our quick-strike offense, smothering defense and lightning fast transition game can give us enough of an advantage to offset that weakness.

[crimson_stallion]

The xfactor imo is Brown.  We already know what to expect from Horford and Green coming off the bench.   If Brown can play like a ROY candidate , than I like our chances to at least get past the 1st round and have a good chance to get past the 2nd round of the playoffs

Thoughts?

Totally underrating Horford here.  He was the reason ATL was a good team for a while.  He is replacing Sullinger.  Think about that and think about where the Cs can go from there.

The biggest things we gain with Horford out there in place of Sully are:

1) Improved rim protection
2) Improved P&R defense
3) Improved efficiency, versatility and discipline on offense

The biggest thing we lose is, obviously, rebounding.

The net result will be a gain, and a significant one at that.  But I'm not sure it'll be as huge a gain as some people think. 

I hope that I'm wrong about that,  but I watched my share of Hawks games, and Horford is not a game changer.  He's solid veteran who knows how to play the game, who can contribute in a number of ways, and who will offer sound leadership under pressure.  He's basically a more skilled Amir Johnson in that regard.  He'll impact the win column, I'm just not sure exactly how much.

[Chris22]

I think we are better, but I don't know how much.
If we get Noel, then we really have something.

[IDreamCeltics]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

[Tr1boy]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

[vjcsmoke]

I'm expecting the real X-factor to be Marcus Smart.  NBA analytic tools love him and expect him to take off in his 3rd full NBA season.  If Smart takes it to the next level, we will be very hard to stop.

Of course I'd love to see Jaylen surprise us, but it's hard for rookies to make an impact in this league.  If he does, I will be very happy.  But it's going to be hard for him to get minutes with Crowder entrenched at SF.  If he gets minutes, he will have earned them.  Brad Stevens runs a meritocracy and on top of that is very good at squeezing performance out of his players.

[greece66]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

Personally, I'm not saying that Brown is 4 years away, but he will prolly need some time to find himself in the NBA.

Simmons is ready to go in a team that is expected to be at the bottom of the EC and has no one else with his playmaking skills. Dunn is 22: from the start, his key advantage was considered to be that he was prolly ready for the NBA.

[Evantime34]

The xfactor imo is Brown.  We already know what to expect from Horford and Green coming off the bench.   If Brown can play like a ROY candidate , than I like our chances to at least get past the 1st round and have a good chance to get past the 2nd round of the playoffs

Thoughts?

Totally underrating Horford here.  He was the reason ATL was a good team for a while.  He is replacing Sullinger.  Think about that and think about where the Cs can go from there.

The biggest things we gain with Horford out there in place of Sully are:

1) Improved rim protection
2) Improved P&R defense
3) Improved efficiency, versatility and discipline on offense

The biggest thing we lose is, obviously, rebounding.

The net result will be a gain, and a significant one at that.  But I'm not sure it'll be as huge a gain as some people think. 

I hope that I'm wrong about that,  but I watched my share of Hawks games, and Horford is not a game changer.  He's solid veteran who knows how to play the game, who can contribute in a number of ways, and who will offer sound leadership under pressure.  He's basically a more skilled Amir Johnson in that regard.  He'll impact the win column, I'm just not sure exactly how much.

Here is my argument for the gain being huge.

Sullinger played well, but he only played 23.6 minutes a game. Last year Al Horford played 32.1. Even if the upgrade of Horford over Sullinger isn't as great as people seem to think, Horford is still replacing an additional 8.5 minutes a game that went to David Lee, Jerebko or Zeller last year. The improvement from one of those guys to Horford is enormous.

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

Personally, I'm not saying that Brown is 4 years away, but he will prolly need some time to find himself in the NBA.

Simmons is ready to go in a team that is expected to be at the bottom of the EC and has no one else with his playmaking skills. Dunn is 22: from the start, his key advantage was considered to be that he was prolly ready for the NBA.

Brown isn't going to be great immediately. However, his size length and athleticism will allow him to be a role player who plays solid defense and excels in transition. I predict he is an above replacement level for the minutes he plays off the bench immediately with a chance to be elite by the end of his rookie deal.

[dannyboy35]

I'm expecting the real X-factor to be Marcus Smart.  NBA analytic tools love him and expect him to take off in his 3rd full NBA season.  If Smart takes it to the next level, we will be very hard to stop.

Of course I'd love to see Jaylen surprise us, but it's hard for rookies to make an impact in this league.  If he does, I will be very happy.  But it's going to be hard for him to get minutes with Crowder entrenched at SF.  If he gets minutes, he will have earned them.  Brad Stevens runs a meritocracy and on top of that is very good at squeezing performance out of his players.

I really hope you are right about Smart. He's been such a dissapointment . Just not good shooting, ball handling or iq.  But with better handle and his head up the iq goes up. Becoming a better shooter is pretty tricky but we'll see. If he has another 3 on 2 break and pulls the ball out to halfcourt like he did last season I think I'm settled on him being a very good role player. Nothing wrong with that.
  It was always the media's fault calling him the heir to rondo. Well, also Stevens giving dribbling duties to Turner who's now gone for nothing too, in my opinion.

[D Dub]

I'm coming around on Brown after being really disappointed with the pick on draft night.

Summer League showed me he has a wide repertoire of offensive moves.  The knock on him was his outside shot, but he did hit like 75-80 shots out of 100 in the C's workout.  And he sounds like a very high character that is putting in the needed work to improve in that area.   

Bringing in Green should be a motivator for him.  An established, veteran player who he'll have to compete directly with for minutes.  Green isn't going to give him anything easy in practice, probably see's a lot of himself in Jaylen. 

Seems to be Brad's MO, to setup these kind of tense competitive settings in practice.  Whether it's adding Rozier to push Smart & Thomas.  Or Sully vs. Kelly, it feels like Brad really wants to see these guys earn their minutes.  With Green set to backup Crowder, Jaylen is going to have to do the same, beat that guy out and earn his way into the rotation. 

I, for one, wouldn't be surprised to see him go out and take that opportunity, become a major contributor to a 50 win team. 

[moiso]

Horford is a big addition.  Seems most expect us to win about 55 games this year.    Green and Brown are less significant in the short-term.  If we keep Brown, he's someone who hopefully will make a major impact long-term.

On paper, we have a real shot of making the ECF this season.  I'd say as long as Golden State is healthy, every other team is further away from winning a title than they were last season.

I never thought I'd hear you say this. Is the sky beginning to fall where any one else lives?! How about our European Celtic fans? Warning, please.

LB isn't as high on Toronto since they lost Biyombo 

And LB has been quite optimistic since January, or so - perhaps a New Year's resolution (?)

My optimism about the Celtics directly coincides with positive things happening to the team.  It's a weird quirk I have... I get excited when there is an actual reason to get excited.   

The team is in great shape.  I'm pumped.  We were a borderline 50 win team and we just added a guy who could theoretically push us all the way to 60 (based on the impact he made in Atlanta).  I hope we stay healthy and everything meshes well.   I'm also cautiously optimistic that Marcus Smart (if we keep him) will show real improvement in year 3.  We saw flashes in the playoffs.  I hope things finally click for him on offense.    I've was also on board with the Jaylen Brown draft pick.  I didn't want us taking a 23 year old Senior.  I'm thrilled we took a 19 year old with a high ceiling.  I don't expect him to make much of an impact in year 1, but I'm optimistic that if we keep him, he'll develop into a great player years from now.    I'm also still excited about the possibility of adding one of those Philly bigs, but I'm not holding my breathe and getting my hopes up until I see an actual deal.

I like the Gerald Green signing as well.  He showed some signs a couple years ago.  He could be instant offense off the bench.  He might struggle.  It could go either way with him. 

Also, Brooklyn didn't make any significant improvements, so I'm hopeful they will stink again again this year.

There's really no reason to be down on this team.  Ainge has done a phenomenal job.  We came close to taking over the league, had we signed Durant.  The only buzz kill of the whole thing is that Golden State has seemingly made this season (and the next several after this season) a foregone conclusion.   Just have to hope for some injuries or that team to implode.   Otherwise, they should dominate this league until another superteam forms.

I think you've made the same point about Golden State about 500 times now.

[slamtheking]

I think it's more realistic if viewed like this:

Positives:
Added Horford - fairly significant.
Added Green - negligible
Added Brown (and other rookies) - minimal impact
Anticipated improvement from KO, Smart and Rozier - medium impact.
Anticipated improvement from Young, Hunter, Mickey - negligible

Negatives
Lost Sullinger - medium impact
Lost Turner - significant impact

Sully's rebounding has not been replaced nor do we have a proven backup ball handler behind IT.  I think this will bite us in the butt early in the season until Brad figures out how to compensate.  Overall, I would project 4-5 more wins than last year.