How much better are the Celts with the addition of Horford, Green, Brown?

[Bobshot]

They subtracted Sullinger and added Zeller for another year at $8 million, which kind of makes my blood curdle, since Sullinger, a much better player, signed with rival Toronto for $2 million less. Somebody up there likes Zeller. A net negative.

The other three guys are a decided positive. But it all depends on injuries, and how the rest of the team plays.

Unless Brown surprises, I don't see this team much beyond 50-52 wins. They may have overachieved last year, especially with IT playing a whole season without getting hurt. He might not be able to repeat that.

[IDreamCeltics]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

[Snakehead]

They subtracted Sullinger and added Zeller for another year at $8 million, which kind of makes my blood curdle, since Sullinger, a much better player, signed with rival Toronto for $2 million less. Somebody up there likes Zeller. A net negative.

Zeller was already on the team and we added Al Horford?  I think someone up there doesn't like Jared Sullinger and rightfully so.  How Sullinger's off season went says a lot about him and his reputation with the Celtics and around the league.

[Evantime34]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

If you are expecting his role with the team to be a scorer immediately then you are going to be validated in your negative opinion of him.

In college he was the guy that they gave it to when nothing developed earlier in the shot clock. This season, he's going to be a back up 3, that plays defense, gets out in transition, hits the occasional open shot and drives close outs.

Brown is not replacing Turner because Turner's role was one that was unique to him. Turner was the back up 3, the 2nd unit ball handler, and the secondary ball handler when he played with the starters.

Now those roles are all important, but that doesn't mean that one person is going to replace all those roles. Most teams don't have a player that does all those things (nor the need for one) and are able to absorb those roles with different players.

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

[LarBrd33]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

If you are expecting his role with the team to be a scorer immediately then you are going to be validated in your negative opinion of him.

In college he was the guy that they gave it to when nothing developed earlier in the shot clock. This season, he's going to be a back up 3, that plays defense, gets out in transition, hits the occasional open shot and drives close outs.

Brown is not replacing Turner because Turner's role was one that was unique to him. Turner was the back up 3, the 2nd unit ball handler, and the secondary ball handler when he played with the starters.

Now those roles are all important, but that doesn't mean that one person is going to replace all those roles. Most teams don't have a player that does all those things (nor the need for one) and are able to absorb those roles with different players.

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.  He's got a long way to go.  What IDC said seems accurate.  He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense.  He will not be given the green light to keep shooting 30% from the field.  So it comes down to whether or not he's a dramatically better defensive option than someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

Long-term he can be great, but I have basically no expectations of him in year 1.  Do you think there's enough evidence to suggest he will definitely be a great defender immediately?

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

[Evantime34]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

If you are expecting his role with the team to be a scorer immediately then you are going to be validated in your negative opinion of him.

In college he was the guy that they gave it to when nothing developed earlier in the shot clock. This season, he's going to be a back up 3, that plays defense, gets out in transition, hits the occasional open shot and drives close outs.

Brown is not replacing Turner because Turner's role was one that was unique to him. Turner was the back up 3, the 2nd unit ball handler, and the secondary ball handler when he played with the starters.

Now those roles are all important, but that doesn't mean that one person is going to replace all those roles. Most teams don't have a player that does all those things (nor the need for one) and are able to absorb those roles with different players.

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.  He's got a long way to go.  What IDC said seems accurate.  He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense.  He will not be given the green light to keep shooting 30% from the field.  So it comes down to whether or not he's a dramatically better defensive option than someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

Long-term he can be great, but I have basically no expectations of him in year 1.  Do you think there's enough evidence to suggest he will definitely be a great defender immediately?

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

Great defender immediately? No. Better defender than both Green/Hunter immediately with the upside to consistently improve as the season moves along? Yes

My best evidence comes from Kevin O'Connor

As a team they (Cal) ranked 17th in the nation in AdjD, per KenPom. Per HoopsLens, they have a 94 DRTG with Brown on the court compared to 102 DRTG with him off. Watching film, it's clear he played a significant role in their team success regardless of the individual blocks/steals.

In terms of summer league, I thought he flashed his defensive potential when defending Ben Simmons and blocking him twice.

[LarBrd33]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

If you are expecting his role with the team to be a scorer immediately then you are going to be validated in your negative opinion of him.

In college he was the guy that they gave it to when nothing developed earlier in the shot clock. This season, he's going to be a back up 3, that plays defense, gets out in transition, hits the occasional open shot and drives close outs.

Brown is not replacing Turner because Turner's role was one that was unique to him. Turner was the back up 3, the 2nd unit ball handler, and the secondary ball handler when he played with the starters.

Now those roles are all important, but that doesn't mean that one person is going to replace all those roles. Most teams don't have a player that does all those things (nor the need for one) and are able to absorb those roles with different players.

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.  He's got a long way to go.  What IDC said seems accurate.  He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense.  He will not be given the green light to keep shooting 30% from the field.  So it comes down to whether or not he's a dramatically better defensive option than someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

Long-term he can be great, but I have basically no expectations of him in year 1.  Do you think there's enough evidence to suggest he will definitely be a great defender immediately?

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

Great defender immediately? No. Better defender than both Green/Hunter immediately with the upside to consistently improve as the season moves along? Yes

My best evidence comes from Kevin O'Connor

As a team they (Cal) ranked 17th in the nation in AdjD, per KenPom. Per HoopsLens, they have a 94 DRTG with Brown on the court compared to 102 DRTG with him off. Watching film, it's clear he played a significant role in their team success regardless of the individual blocks/steals.

In terms of summer league, I thought he flashed his defensive potential when defending Ben Simmons and blocking him twice.

We have some great defenders on this team.  I hope we keep Jaylen and we see a lot of minutes of out him.  But I wouldn't be terribly shocked to see us favoring giving backup minutes to guys like Green because of how weak Jaylen is offensively right now.  If they want someone who can shoot better than 20% from three coming off the bench, those minutes might be going to Gerald.

[Evantime34]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

If you are expecting his role with the team to be a scorer immediately then you are going to be validated in your negative opinion of him.

In college he was the guy that they gave it to when nothing developed earlier in the shot clock. This season, he's going to be a back up 3, that plays defense, gets out in transition, hits the occasional open shot and drives close outs.

Brown is not replacing Turner because Turner's role was one that was unique to him. Turner was the back up 3, the 2nd unit ball handler, and the secondary ball handler when he played with the starters.

Now those roles are all important, but that doesn't mean that one person is going to replace all those roles. Most teams don't have a player that does all those things (nor the need for one) and are able to absorb those roles with different players.

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.  He's got a long way to go.  What IDC said seems accurate.  He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense.  He will not be given the green light to keep shooting 30% from the field.  So it comes down to whether or not he's a dramatically better defensive option than someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

Long-term he can be great, but I have basically no expectations of him in year 1.  Do you think there's enough evidence to suggest he will definitely be a great defender immediately?

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

Great defender immediately? No. Better defender than both Green/Hunter immediately with the upside to consistently improve as the season moves along? Yes

My best evidence comes from Kevin O'Connor

As a team they (Cal) ranked 17th in the nation in AdjD, per KenPom. Per HoopsLens, they have a 94 DRTG with Brown on the court compared to 102 DRTG with him off. Watching film, it's clear he played a significant role in their team success regardless of the individual blocks/steals.

In terms of summer league, I thought he flashed his defensive potential when defending Ben Simmons and blocking him twice.

We have some great defenders on this team.  I hope we keep Jaylen and we see a lot of minutes of out him.  But I wouldn't be terribly shocked to see us favoring giving backup minutes to guys like Green because of how weak Jaylen is offensively right now.  If they want someone who can shoot better than 20% from three coming off the bench, those minutes might be going to Gerald.

I could see Green winning the back up 3 job during camp. I would be shocked if Brown doesn't wrestle that job from him during the season.

With how well this team played the past few years when they went small, I could see both getting some minutes off the bench.

I'm not expecting huge things from Brown immediately, but I do expect 10-15 minutes a game with stretches where he plays 20+ minutes a game.

I would have interest in a TP wager as to whether Brown is in the rotation immediately if you have interest.

[LarBrd33]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

If you are expecting his role with the team to be a scorer immediately then you are going to be validated in your negative opinion of him.

In college he was the guy that they gave it to when nothing developed earlier in the shot clock. This season, he's going to be a back up 3, that plays defense, gets out in transition, hits the occasional open shot and drives close outs.

Brown is not replacing Turner because Turner's role was one that was unique to him. Turner was the back up 3, the 2nd unit ball handler, and the secondary ball handler when he played with the starters.

Now those roles are all important, but that doesn't mean that one person is going to replace all those roles. Most teams don't have a player that does all those things (nor the need for one) and are able to absorb those roles with different players.

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.  He's got a long way to go.  What IDC said seems accurate.  He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense.  He will not be given the green light to keep shooting 30% from the field.  So it comes down to whether or not he's a dramatically better defensive option than someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

Long-term he can be great, but I have basically no expectations of him in year 1.  Do you think there's enough evidence to suggest he will definitely be a great defender immediately?

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

Great defender immediately? No. Better defender than both Green/Hunter immediately with the upside to consistently improve as the season moves along? Yes

My best evidence comes from Kevin O'Connor

As a team they (Cal) ranked 17th in the nation in AdjD, per KenPom. Per HoopsLens, they have a 94 DRTG with Brown on the court compared to 102 DRTG with him off. Watching film, it's clear he played a significant role in their team success regardless of the individual blocks/steals.

In terms of summer league, I thought he flashed his defensive potential when defending Ben Simmons and blocking him twice.

We have some great defenders on this team.  I hope we keep Jaylen and we see a lot of minutes of out him.  But I wouldn't be terribly shocked to see us favoring giving backup minutes to guys like Green because of how weak Jaylen is offensively right now.  If they want someone who can shoot better than 20% from three coming off the bench, those minutes might be going to Gerald.

I could see Green winning the back up 3 job during camp. I would be shocked if Brown doesn't wrestle that job from him during the season.

With how well this team played the past few years when they went small, I could see both getting some minutes off the bench.

I'm not expecting huge things from Brown immediately, but I do expect 10-15 minutes a game with stretches where he plays 20+ minutes a game.

I would have interest in a TP wager as to whether Brown is in the rotation immediately if you have interest.

I hope you're right.  Hopefully he's a quick learner.  I'm just saying that while Brown seemingly fits the mold of poor shooter/strong defender, we have a lot of those guys on the team already.  We might just need someone who can semi consistently come off the bench and hit some shots.  Brown is 19.  I'm not going to bet against him, but I'm not going to put unreasonable expectations on him.   That said, he was a #3 pick.  Regardless of whether it was a weak draft, if we keep that kid he better be able to make some kind of immediate impact.  THere's going to be guys taken in this draft who are able to contribute right away.  Hopefully Brown is one of them.  If we move him later this month, though, hopefully he busts at his next destination.  But until that happens, I'm firmly on the Brown Bandwagon.

[dannyboy35]

Regular season, I think they'll be at least the clear cut 3rd team in the East barring a major injury to Thomas or Horford, possibly as high as 2nd over Toronto if everything goes well.

I think the most likely outcome is a loss in the 2nd round, but I also believe they have what it takes to make it to the ECF if they can avoid Cleveland's side of the bracket.

Ending up with the 4th or 5th seed again would be an out and out disaster.  Another first round loss might prompt major changes.

I think the pacers will be very tough.

[dannyboy35]

Turner is going to be missed more than we think.  Brad Stevens, Danny Anige all said he was key to the second unit.    Also Portland was willing to pay him 17 Million a year.....   So all the posters on here can't ignore that.

yup. he got us a ton of wins singlehandedly. people seemingly dont want to admit that. he was very clutch, and aside from isaiah, was the only guy who could go and get a few buckets in a row (especially during those offensive droughts we had).

He will definitely be missed more than most think.

Agree

[Evantime34]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

If you are expecting his role with the team to be a scorer immediately then you are going to be validated in your negative opinion of him.

In college he was the guy that they gave it to when nothing developed earlier in the shot clock. This season, he's going to be a back up 3, that plays defense, gets out in transition, hits the occasional open shot and drives close outs.

Brown is not replacing Turner because Turner's role was one that was unique to him. Turner was the back up 3, the 2nd unit ball handler, and the secondary ball handler when he played with the starters.

Now those roles are all important, but that doesn't mean that one person is going to replace all those roles. Most teams don't have a player that does all those things (nor the need for one) and are able to absorb those roles with different players.

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.  He's got a long way to go.  What IDC said seems accurate.  He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense.  He will not be given the green light to keep shooting 30% from the field.  So it comes down to whether or not he's a dramatically better defensive option than someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

Long-term he can be great, but I have basically no expectations of him in year 1.  Do you think there's enough evidence to suggest he will definitely be a great defender immediately?

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

Great defender immediately? No. Better defender than both Green/Hunter immediately with the upside to consistently improve as the season moves along? Yes

My best evidence comes from Kevin O'Connor

As a team they (Cal) ranked 17th in the nation in AdjD, per KenPom. Per HoopsLens, they have a 94 DRTG with Brown on the court compared to 102 DRTG with him off. Watching film, it's clear he played a significant role in their team success regardless of the individual blocks/steals.

In terms of summer league, I thought he flashed his defensive potential when defending Ben Simmons and blocking him twice.

We have some great defenders on this team.  I hope we keep Jaylen and we see a lot of minutes of out him.  But I wouldn't be terribly shocked to see us favoring giving backup minutes to guys like Green because of how weak Jaylen is offensively right now.  If they want someone who can shoot better than 20% from three coming off the bench, those minutes might be going to Gerald.

I could see Green winning the back up 3 job during camp. I would be shocked if Brown doesn't wrestle that job from him during the season.

With how well this team played the past few years when they went small, I could see both getting some minutes off the bench.

I'm not expecting huge things from Brown immediately, but I do expect 10-15 minutes a game with stretches where he plays 20+ minutes a game.

I would have interest in a TP wager as to whether Brown is in the rotation immediately if you have interest.

I hope you're right.  Hopefully he's a quick learner.  I'm just saying that while Brown seemingly fits the mold of poor shooter/strong defender, we have a lot of those guys on the team already.  We might just need someone who can semi consistently come off the bench and hit some shots.  Brown is 19.  I'm not going to bet against him, but I'm not going to put unreasonable expectations on him.   That said, he was a #3 pick.  Regardless of whether it was a weak draft, if we keep that kid he better be able to make some kind of immediate impact.  THere's going to be guys taken in this draft who are able to contribute right away.  Hopefully Brown is one of them.  If we move him later this month, though, hopefully he busts at his next destination.  But until that happens, I'm firmly on the Brown Bandwagon.

Agree on not wanting to put unreasonable expectations on Brown. Any talk of Brown competing for ROY or even being a creator for the second unit on offense is too high of expectations imo. I really hope 10-15 minutes per game off the bench isn't unreasonable expectations. That being said, I'm much more concerned with what he does at the end of his rookie deal than what he does as a rookie.

As to wanting to go with more of a shooter at the back up 3, I expect Jerebko and Olynyk to be our 2nd unit 4 and 5, so that might help mitigate the lack of shooting in other spots of the 2nd unit.

[Tr1boy]

To be honest, Al Horford is the the only one of those guys who'll be making a positive impact this season.

Gerald Green?  Come on... the guy has had one meaningful nba season in the last decade.  He peaked as a backup three years ago.  The only thing worse than drafting him in the first round is holding a roster spot for him when he's 30 years old and cutting someone who may have an actual career ahead of them.

Jaylen Brown?  He's 19 years old.  After watching summer league, the only thing anyone can say definitively about him is that he would have greatly benefited from two more years of college basketball.  He's currently two years away from being two years away.  The safest bet you could make right now is that in 2019 half this board will be screaming that he needs to be cut or traded because he hasn't "developed."   

This season these guys will have a similar impact to 8 million dollar man Tyler Zeller.

How is Jaylen Brown 4 years away?

Did you really watch him play at the SL games?

If Simmons, Dunn are considered ready to go, so is Jaylen

I think the easiest answer to understand is that his total FG% in summer league was 30.7% and he hit on just 27.2 % of his 3 pointers.  That's against summer league players.

His PER was 17.1 in College.

He's just not ready to score at the level of efficiency required of an NBA player.

I was very impressed with his ability to draw fouls at almost 10 FTA per game, but he won't be the best athlete on the court in the NBA.  He's not going to draw 10 FTA per game against NBA teams in his rookie year.  Only two players in the whole nba drew 10 FTA per game last year and their names are Demarcus Cousins and James Harden and neither of them started out their nba careers drawing 10 FTA per game so disabuse yourself of that fantasy.  Brown would be lucky to draw 4-5 FTA per game in the NBA playing starters minutes.  Of course he won't be a starter because in front of him is Jay Crowder and potentially Marcus Smart.  So let's say he has a similar rookie season to Demar Derozan, Paul George, or Jimmy Butler.  Those guys averaged 8 pts, 7.8 pts, and 2.6 pts per game respectively their rookie years and did that with the benefit of two years of college for George, and four years of college for Butler.  Derozan only had one year of college, but he went to a situation where the Raptors had no pressure to win and could play him big minutes.  Additionally I'd say both Butler and George were both further along basketball-wise their rookie years than Jaylen is now.
 
So yeah, I think he'll be lucky to average 6 pts. 1.7 rbs. 0.5 assists. 0.6stls 1.0To this year in light minutes...

Don't get me wrong I think his ceiling is very high, but it will take him time to actually learn to use all his gifts and play the game.

Your statistically expectations of him , off the bench is worst case scenario.  Unless CBS refuses to give rookies a chance. But seeing how Smart got mins in his rookie year (NBA body, willing defender) ,  Brown should also get some min, and then its up to him to prove he is trustworthy

also I can't agree with (highlighted above) .   Brown is easily the best athlete/explosive player on the team.  And he represents the 10 percent of the elite athlete/explosive players of the NBA.  Including the likes of Wiggins, Deandre Jordan, Derozan, Russel Westbrook etc. 

I feel good about the chances that he will learn to use his physical tools in other ways to score baskets (because yes he won't get half the call he did at the SL level). For example that ridiculous fadeaway shot,  euro step, dribble stop and pop more. 

[ThePaintedArea]

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

Well, we'll see. But the opportunity with him is to develop him driving and drawing contact over a season so that he can have a role in the playoffs. They also want the second seed - but his rapid progress in summer league and considerable gifts suggest that both are possible.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.

I would be surprised if he spends time in the D-league; the opportunity to fast-track him is too big. As for being an "amazing" defender - pretty high bar there...

He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense..

I think that he showed that he'll be a factor pretty early in the season. But they don't need him to; likely he'll get a small but steady diet of touches - and he'll get to do his thing.

... someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

He's not competing with Hunter, full stop. They got Green as insurance; as Jaylen carves out his role, the need for him recedes.

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

Doubtful that he's available; he is too good a fit and too gifted.

[LarBrd33]

Brown will fill Turner's back up 3 role and his responsibilities will only be to defend back up 3's and play off 2nd unit ball handlers. I highly doubt they will rely on him to create his own offense immediately. Smart and Rozier should take over the other two roles I previously mentioned.

Well, we'll see. But the opportunity with him is to develop him driving and drawing contact over a season so that he can have a role in the playoffs. They also want the second seed - but his rapid progress in summer league and considerable gifts suggest that both are possible.

If Jaylen proves to be an amazing defender right way, I could see him earning minutes.  But I also wouldnt' be entirely shocked to see him struggle on both ends and spend some time in the D-League.

I would be surprised if he spends time in the D-league; the opportunity to fast-track him is too big. As for being an "amazing" defender - pretty high bar there...

He showed in Summer League that he's not going to be a factor immediately on offense..

I think that he showed that he'll be a factor pretty early in the season. But they don't need him to; likely he'll get a small but steady diet of touches - and he'll get to do his thing.

... someone like RJ Hunter or Gerald Green. 

He's not competing with Hunter, full stop. They got Green as insurance; as Jaylen carves out his role, the need for him recedes.

This is all, of course, assuming he's still with the team when the season starts.  We keep hearing rumors that they are still trying to make moves and Brown might be involved.

Doubtful that he's available; he is too good a fit and too gifted.

He's what I'll say... there was nothing surprising about Jaylen's Summer league performance.  He showed the signs we expected him to show.  He struggled with what we expected him to struggle with.   All the things that scouts pointed out about him prior to the draft were on display.  All the things that had people thinking he might be good some day.  All the things that had others thinking he was a 4th-tier prospect with a future as a long-term role player.

We were shopping the pick hard before and during the draft.  I get the logic in taking Brown.  We didn't want to get stuck with a point guard log jam.  Brown hopefully can contribute.   But nothing has happened over the past two months that would make the pick (Brown) less available.  I expect that we if we are truly trying to land a big fish, Brown's name is in the discussions.  The player we saw in Summer League isn't ready for the NBA yet.  But there's still a lot of time left and hopefully he develops quickly while practicing with a solid group of players.  The potential is definitely there.

If we keep him, I hope he doesn't struggle the point that he gets demoted to the D-League.  I think he'll benefit more by sticking with this group of pros and practicing against them every day.  I know this is a serious team that is trying to compete, but if we keep him I hope we make a point to force-feed minutes to him even if he's struggling defensively and shooting 25% from the field.   Using the #3 pick on him was a huge investment.  We need to make sure he gets his reps if he's staying a Celtic.