Author Topic: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time  (Read 57525 times)

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Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #150 on: August 12, 2016, 06:09:33 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

The basic gist is that we can all just assume that Boston is unwilling to move any of the Brooklyn picks for Noel or Okafor.  And since those are off the table and Boston presumably doesn't want to give up their best players, the two teams aren't much of a fit.   Key parts:

Quote
The Sixers want to move a big. The Celtics clearly want a big. Perfect match, right? There's just one problem: What does Boston have that the Sixers want?

Not much, to put it simply.


Quote
Could a package of Smart, Rozier and a first-round pick get it done? If I'm Colangelo, no, it can't. Those players certainly have good pedigrees and may still be productive NBA players, but that's not enough to pull the trigger on trading either Noel or Okafor.

We all know the Sixers need to move a big man. That doesn't mean they should give one away.

Makes sense.   I think any deal involving Okafor or Noel coming to Boston would likely need to involve a 3rd team... unless something drastic changes and Philly decides to just give away one of those guys for whatever offer they get.

Also, great point from a Philly fan in the comments who points out that despite how good Rozier looked in Summer League, he's still a guy who shot 29% and 22% from three in the NBA last year and is arguably worse than Nik Stauskas, who they already have.

Yeah, Stauskas is better if you disregard defense, ball handling, ability to finish at the rim, passing, rebounding, athleticism, shot creation, and heart.
Actually, if you look at what those guys did last year in the NBA (the basketball league they both play in), it's easy to come away with a belief Stauskas is better. 

Rozier:  1.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0 blocks, 0.2 steals, 27% shooting and 22% from three. 

Sauce:  8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.6 steals, 39% and 33% from three.

They are the same age.  So basically it's just about speculating how Rozier could perform with more minutes and whether he has potential to perform on the NBA level.   

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #151 on: August 12, 2016, 06:14:32 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Why not just flip Smart, Rozier, and a 1st for Staukus, then? Let him compete for a starting role with AB, then hand him the keys when IT is ready to bounce for more $$. We would be better now and in the future.

 ;D
Recovering Joe Skeptic, but inching towards a relapse.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #152 on: August 12, 2016, 06:14:58 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

That article is essentially useless because the author significantly overvalues both Noel and Okafor.  He says Smart, Rozier and a 1st is not enough but there is ZERO evidence that anyone in the league is offering anything even close to that.  What you think something is worth means nothing.  The only thing that matters is what someone else is willing to pay.

Mike
What the seller thinks someone/something is worth means everything.   What someone else is willing to pay is only relevant if the seller needs to sell.  Philly no doubt would prefer to make a sale, but they don't actually need to do anything.   If Smart + Rozier + a 1st isn't enough for Philly to trade Noel (or Okafor), they will probably not accept that offer.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #153 on: August 12, 2016, 06:18:06 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

The basic gist is that we can all just assume that Boston is unwilling to move any of the Brooklyn picks for Noel or Okafor.  And since those are off the table and Boston presumably doesn't want to give up their best players, the two teams aren't much of a fit.   Key parts:

Quote
The Sixers want to move a big. The Celtics clearly want a big. Perfect match, right? There's just one problem: What does Boston have that the Sixers want?

Not much, to put it simply.


Quote
Could a package of Smart, Rozier and a first-round pick get it done? If I'm Colangelo, no, it can't. Those players certainly have good pedigrees and may still be productive NBA players, but that's not enough to pull the trigger on trading either Noel or Okafor.

We all know the Sixers need to move a big man. That doesn't mean they should give one away.

Makes sense.   I think any deal involving Okafor or Noel coming to Boston would likely need to involve a 3rd team... unless something drastic changes and Philly decides to just give away one of those guys for whatever offer they get.

Also, great point from a Philly fan in the comments who points out that despite how good Rozier looked in Summer League, he's still a guy who shot 29% and 22% from three in the NBA last year and is arguably worse than Nik Stauskas, who they already have.

Yeah, Stauskas is better if you disregard defense, ball handling, ability to finish at the rim, passing, rebounding, athleticism, shot creation, and heart.
Actually, if you look at what those guys did last year in the NBA (the basketball league they both play in), it's easy to come away with a belief Stauskas is better. 

Rozier:  1.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0 blocks, 0.2 steals, 27% shooting and 22% from three. 

Sauce:  8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.6 steals, 39% and 33% from three.

They are the same age.  So basically it's just about speculating how Rozier could perform with more minutes and whether he has potential to perform on the NBA level.

come on man... how would sauces numbers look if he was behind IT, Smart and Bradley. Here is a hint: DNP-CD

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #154 on: August 12, 2016, 06:18:42 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Why not just flip Smart, Rozier, and a 1st for Staukus, then? Let him compete for a starting role with AB, then hand him the keys when IT is ready to bounce for more $$. We would be better now and in the future.

 ;D

sauce!  ;D

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #155 on: August 12, 2016, 06:19:29 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Why not just flip Smart, Rozier, and a 1st for Staukus, then? Let him compete for a starting role with AB, then hand him the keys when IT is ready to bounce for more $$. We would be better now and in the future.
Including Smart + the 1st is overpay.   Stauskas for Rozier is worth exploring.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #156 on: August 12, 2016, 06:20:09 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

The basic gist is that we can all just assume that Boston is unwilling to move any of the Brooklyn picks for Noel or Okafor.  And since those are off the table and Boston presumably doesn't want to give up their best players, the two teams aren't much of a fit.   Key parts:

Quote
The Sixers want to move a big. The Celtics clearly want a big. Perfect match, right? There's just one problem: What does Boston have that the Sixers want?

Not much, to put it simply.


Quote
Could a package of Smart, Rozier and a first-round pick get it done? If I'm Colangelo, no, it can't. Those players certainly have good pedigrees and may still be productive NBA players, but that's not enough to pull the trigger on trading either Noel or Okafor.

We all know the Sixers need to move a big man. That doesn't mean they should give one away.

Makes sense.   I think any deal involving Okafor or Noel coming to Boston would likely need to involve a 3rd team... unless something drastic changes and Philly decides to just give away one of those guys for whatever offer they get.

Also, great point from a Philly fan in the comments who points out that despite how good Rozier looked in Summer League, he's still a guy who shot 29% and 22% from three in the NBA last year and is arguably worse than Nik Stauskas, who they already have.

Yeah, Stauskas is better if you disregard defense, ball handling, ability to finish at the rim, passing, rebounding, athleticism, shot creation, and heart.
Actually, if you look at what those guys did last year in the NBA (the basketball league they both play in), it's easy to come away with a belief Stauskas is better. 

Rozier:  1.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0 blocks, 0.2 steals, 27% shooting and 22% from three. 

Sauce:  8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.6 steals, 39% and 33% from three.

They are the same age.  So basically it's just about speculating how Rozier could perform with more minutes and whether he has potential to perform on the NBA level.

Yeah, no it's not. You'd have to totally disregard any shred of context to come to such a conclusion, such as:

- Rozier was a rookie last year while Stauskas was a third year player;

- Rozier played for the team with the third best record in the East behind an All-Star point guard, a 1st team All-Defense selection, a candidate for sixth man of the year in Turner, and a promising young number six pick;

- Stauskas barely got minutes on the literal worst team in the league that didn't even have NBA-level guards for the majority of the year.

So, yeah, if you disregard those facts, I guess you could come to such a conclusion...  ::)
Recovering Joe Skeptic, but inching towards a relapse.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #157 on: August 12, 2016, 06:21:52 PM »

Offline bogg

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

That article is essentially useless because the author significantly overvalues both Noel and Okafor.  He says Smart, Rozier and a 1st is not enough but there is ZERO evidence that anyone in the league is offering anything even close to that.  What you think something is worth means nothing.  The only thing that matters is what someone else is willing to pay.

Mike
What the seller thinks someone/something is worth means everything.   What someone else is willing to pay is only relevant if the seller needs to sell.  Philly no doubt would prefer to make a sale, but they don't actually need to do anything.   If Smart + Rozier + a 1st isn't enough for Philly to trade Noel (or Okafor), they will probably not accept that offer.

Philly does need to sell, regardless of how much their fans tell themselves otherwise. Unless Embiid re-breaks his foot Nerlens is going to force his way out at some point this season. The guy simply isn't going to go for a 20-20-15 minutes split among three centers in his contract season,and that's assuming some limited use of the two-center lineups he didn't like being in. It only takes one team to make an offer, so they might wind up with a halfway decent package if something unexpected happens, but keeping all the bigs isn't a realistic option, and Colangelo is realistic enough to know it.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #158 on: August 12, 2016, 06:22:12 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

That article is essentially useless because the author significantly overvalues both Noel and Okafor.  He says Smart, Rozier and a 1st is not enough but there is ZERO evidence that anyone in the league is offering anything even close to that.  What you think something is worth means nothing.  The only thing that matters is what someone else is willing to pay.

Mike
What the seller thinks someone/something is worth means everything.   What someone else is willing to pay is only relevant if the seller needs to sell.  Philly no doubt would prefer to make a sale, but they don't actually need to do anything.   If Smart + Rozier + a 1st isn't enough for Philly to trade Noel (or Okafor), they will probably not accept that offer.

Yeah, only Philly fans claim that they don't have to do anything, which is already being proven false with reports about Noel already being unhappy and wanting out. To the rest of the NBA who isn't biased, basketball logic dictates that some shoe must drop.
Recovering Joe Skeptic, but inching towards a relapse.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #159 on: August 12, 2016, 06:24:42 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

That article is essentially useless because the author significantly overvalues both Noel and Okafor.  He says Smart, Rozier and a 1st is not enough but there is ZERO evidence that anyone in the league is offering anything even close to that.  What you think something is worth means nothing.  The only thing that matters is what someone else is willing to pay.

Mike
What the seller thinks someone/something is worth means everything.   What someone else is willing to pay is only relevant if the seller needs to sell.  Philly no doubt would prefer to make a sale, but they don't actually need to do anything.   If Smart + Rozier + a 1st isn't enough for Philly to trade Noel (or Okafor), they will probably not accept that offer.

Yeah, only Philly fans claim that they don't have to do anything, which is already being proven false with reports about Noel already being unhappy and wanting out. To the rest of the NBA who isn't biased, basketball logic dictates that some shoe must drop.
Only Philly fans, and this Celtic fan, apparently.   Trading one for equal value is probably their best-case.   But no... they don't need to do anything. 

Unless things have gotten hostile behind the scenes, they can (and probably will) have all those guys on their roster when the season starts.   Plenty of minutes to go around.  They aren't competing for a title this year one way or the other. 

This Celtic team has had their fair share of roster log jams as well.   Too many guards or too many mediocre power forwards.   They never really resolved the issues.  Their way of dealing with the PF log jam was to just wait for SUlly to flee.  Maybe that's how Philly will handle Noel.  Though unlike SUlly, I suspect that there will be offers for Noel in free agency.  So Philly might be best off matching him and dealing with this problem at the trade deadline 2018.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #160 on: August 12, 2016, 06:27:53 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Why not just flip Smart, Rozier, and a 1st for Staukus, then? Let him compete for a starting role with AB, then hand him the keys when IT is ready to bounce for more $$. We would be better now and in the future.
Including Smart + the 1st is overpay.   Stauskas for Rozier is worth exploring.

Nah, only if you're drunk on a Tuesday morning.
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Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #161 on: August 12, 2016, 06:29:24 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Why not just flip Smart, Rozier, and a 1st for Staukus, then? Let him compete for a starting role with AB, then hand him the keys when IT is ready to bounce for more $$. We would be better now and in the future.
Including Smart + the 1st is overpay.   Stauskas for Rozier is worth exploring.

Nah, only if you're drunk on a Tuesday morning.
You'd have to factor in the contract situations.  Rozier is on his rookie contract longer.  If he shows a pulse in the NBA this season and Stauskas fails to find a shooting rhythm, it will not take much for things to tilt in Rozier's direction.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #162 on: August 12, 2016, 06:31:42 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

That article is essentially useless because the author significantly overvalues both Noel and Okafor.  He says Smart, Rozier and a 1st is not enough but there is ZERO evidence that anyone in the league is offering anything even close to that.  What you think something is worth means nothing.  The only thing that matters is what someone else is willing to pay.

Mike
What the seller thinks someone/something is worth means everything.   What someone else is willing to pay is only relevant if the seller needs to sell.  Philly no doubt would prefer to make a sale, but they don't actually need to do anything.   If Smart + Rozier + a 1st isn't enough for Philly to trade Noel (or Okafor), they will probably not accept that offer.

Yeah, only Philly fans claim that they don't have to do anything, which is already being proven false with reports about Noel already being unhappy and wanting out. To the rest of the NBA who isn't biased, basketball logic dictates that some shoe must drop.
Only Philly fans, and this Celtic fan, apparently.   Trading one for equal value is probably their best-case.   But no... they don't need to do anything. 

Unless things have gotten hostile behind the scenes, they can (and probably will) have all those guys on their roster when the season starts.   Plenty of minutes to go around.  They aren't competing for a title this year one way or the other. 

This Celtic team has had their fair share of roster log jams as well.   Too many guards or too many mediocre power forwards.   They never really resolved the issues.  Their way of dealing with the PF log jam was to just wait for SUlly to flee.  Maybe that's how Philly will handle Noel.  Though unlike SUlly, I suspect that there will be offers for Noel in free agency.  So Philly might be best off matching him and dealing with this problem at the trade deadline 2018.

No, that is absolutely false. There simply isn't enough minutes to go around with three centers who can only play the 5 spot and more than 2 other players that will play at the 4 (Simmons, Saric, Covington), let alone all of their other bigs. By keeping all of them, they'll either play them out of position to get them minutes (how well did that go last year, and how badly did it affect their trade value?) or just not play them many minutes, which leads to locker room issues as we're already seeing. That's the simple truth, and trying to rationalize it any other way is just being dishonest.
Recovering Joe Skeptic, but inching towards a relapse.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #163 on: August 12, 2016, 06:37:51 PM »

Offline outflip50

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases. Less minutes with a log jam at the 4 and 5  are not going to help his value as well as the fact that his time under a rookie contract is becoming less and less.

Under the same premise that Philly doesn't have to do anything neither does anyone else. If Noel is worth as much as Philly is thinking he is, why is nobody jumping on it? It is not like the Celtics are the only team in the market for a center.

Following the logical course of thought here says Noel is not worth what Philly thinks.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #164 on: August 12, 2016, 06:39:39 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

That article is essentially useless because the author significantly overvalues both Noel and Okafor.  He says Smart, Rozier and a 1st is not enough but there is ZERO evidence that anyone in the league is offering anything even close to that.  What you think something is worth means nothing.  The only thing that matters is what someone else is willing to pay.

Mike
What the seller thinks someone/something is worth means everything.   What someone else is willing to pay is only relevant if the seller needs to sell.  Philly no doubt would prefer to make a sale, but they don't actually need to do anything.   If Smart + Rozier + a 1st isn't enough for Philly to trade Noel (or Okafor), they will probably not accept that offer.

Yeah, only Philly fans claim that they don't have to do anything, which is already being proven false with reports about Noel already being unhappy and wanting out. To the rest of the NBA who isn't biased, basketball logic dictates that some shoe must drop.
Only Philly fans, and this Celtic fan, apparently.   Trading one for equal value is probably their best-case.   But no... they don't need to do anything. 

Unless things have gotten hostile behind the scenes, they can (and probably will) have all those guys on their roster when the season starts.   Plenty of minutes to go around.  They aren't competing for a title this year one way or the other. 

This Celtic team has had their fair share of roster log jams as well.   Too many guards or too many mediocre power forwards.   They never really resolved the issues.  Their way of dealing with the PF log jam was to just wait for SUlly to flee.  Maybe that's how Philly will handle Noel.  Though unlike SUlly, I suspect that there will be offers for Noel in free agency.  So Philly might be best off matching him and dealing with this problem at the trade deadline 2018.

No, that is absolutely false. There simply isn't enough minutes to go around with three centers who can only play the 5 spot and more than 2 other players that will play at the 4 (Simmons, Saric, Covington), let alone all of their other bigs.
Basically the "problem", as you define it, is that they have too much talent and not enough minutes for all the talent.  They'll have the minutes, though. 

Saric is expected to get like 21 minutes per game this year and probably can play some SF.  Probably comes off the bench.

Simmons is expected to get like 34 minutes and widely expected to be their point guard, though some depth charts online expect him to play Sf... some expect him to play PF.  Nobody really knows how it's going to work out yet.

Embiid is expected to have a minute restriction (if he plays at all)... something like 24 minutes per night.   Reportedly, he has range... so maybe he plays some PF.  Nobody has any idea.

Okafor and Noel proved they weren't at their most effective together, but they most certainly played together.  Noel mostly ended up at PF.   They tried a little with Okafor at PF.  They tried staggering them with Noel or Okafor coming off the bench.  That entire team was a mess, though.

So you have a total of 96 minutes to distribute at the PF/C positions.

Let's slot in Embiid for 24 of them.    Maybe Saric gets a handful at PF.   Simmons is going to play the "Simmons" position, but even if he got half of his minutes at the PF position, you're still looking at something like 56 minutes for Noel and Okafor to split (28 each).

There's lots of minutes to go around and inevitably players will get injured.


What's the absolute "Worst-case" you're imagining?  EMbiid comes out dominant and they decide to pump 45 minutes into him per night?  Simmons proves his most effective at PF and they pump 45 minutes per night into him at that position?  THen what, the team has 0 minutes for Saric, Noel and Okafor?  So be it...  If the best they can get for a guy like Noel right now is a mid 1st rounder, that offer will no doubt still be available to them at the trade deadline even if Noel spends the entire first half of the season getting DNPs.   Thus, they don't NEED to do anything. 

It's entirely hypocritical to sit here and argue "Well Rozier's 1.8 points on 22% shooting doesn't count... everyone knows he is much better than that he just couldn't get minuets because of the depth of Boston's roster!" and then follow it up by claiming that Noel or Okafor would suddenly stop having trade value if they had their minutes vanish due to Philly's new-found "Depth".   That don't make no sense.   IF people know what Rozier can bring to the table based on hypotheticals... clearly people will still know what Okafor/Noel (who actually HAVE performed on the NBA level) can bring to the table a year from now regardless of what happens to their minutes over the first few months of the season.   Give Noel and Okafor a bunch of Rozier-esque DNP's and I fail to see why they'd be worth less than the "mid 1st" people here think they are worth right now.  That option is always going to be there.  Makes the most sense to see if a better option presents itself.