Jaylen Brown - franchise player?

[Fafnir]

Tyreke isn't even a bad comp for me.

He had a ton of talent and could have become a great player, but never developed the well rounded team game with the Kings after they just let him do whatever he wanted with the ball.

You just have to coach/develop better and hope. Draft is always a crap shoot after all.

[jpotter33]

I see Kedrick Brown. I see failure. Did we load up for Kevin Durant? He really must want to come here now. The Knicks are a more attractive team now than the Celtics for KD.

Why would you select a SF, when you already have a SF better than him and then pursue the second best SF in the world.  The selection of Brown clearly indicates to me that Boston doesn't expect to do anything in free agency and is going to go full on rebuilding.  Only thing that makes sense.  If Boston thought it was a real player in free agency it would have made the trade with Philly and picked up Noel who is at a real position of need and that no matter who you sign in free agency would have minutes on the roster.

Yeah, this is what the scary thing is. Danny keeps saying "we still have free agency," but who is legitimately going to come here now? You can pretty much count out Durant and Horford, because we didn't upgrade the roster enough for them. Whiteside? Are we prepared to pay him big money? Barnes? Batum? I just don't see it. This was another swing and a miss by Danny.

I don't think this signals a rebuild, it just signals another year or more of giving most of the minutes to stop-gap guys and bringing younger guys along slowly off the bench, while we rumble toward a first round exit.

But hey, the Celts are still "flexible," and that pile of assets is still, you know, decent, I guess.  Still two more Brooklyn picks coming.  And there's the LAC and Memphis picks!  Woo picks!  So value.  Much trades.

I mean, yeah, it doesn't signal a rebuild, because we're still rebuilding. lol But, yeah, I totally agree with you. Talk is cheap, and after three summers of "flexibility," I'm starting to think it's just a misnomer for, "Well, we tried, but we couldn't fleece anyone in a deal. So it's better to keep our options open for when we can finally get a star from a GM who we can fleece."

[BitterJim]

I see Kedrick Brown. I see failure. Did we load up for Kevin Durant? He really must want to come here now. The Knicks are a more attractive team now than the Celtics for KD.

Why would you select a SF, when you already have a SF better than him and then pursue the second best SF in the world.  The selection of Brown clearly indicates to me that Boston doesn't expect to do anything in free agency and is going to go full on rebuilding.  Only thing that makes sense.  If Boston thought it was a real player in free agency it would have made the trade with Philly and picked up Noel who is at a real position of need and that no matter who you sign in free agency would have minutes on the roster.

I don't think one year of Noel is worth the #3 pick.

It isn't one year of Noel, he is a restricted free agent.  He can't leave unless you don't want him to leave.  The trade also included Covington who will be better than Brown at a minimum next year and two late 1sts, which as the draft bore out would have yielded some lottery level talent foreign players for stashing purposes.

If the Celtics really really wanted Noel, they can just offer him a contract then. Covington is a nobody who gets minutes on a historically bad team. Two late firsts? How many more picks did they need last night? I think Philly was more desperate to make a deal with Boston than Boston was with Philly.

and then Philly matches it and Boston doesn't have Noel.

Phili is not matching any high offers on Noel when they still have Okafor and Embiid, who will be up for new contracts soon enough too. Phili will move one of Okafor or Noel soon enough before they hit free agency. I bet we can still trade for Noel right now if we want to with some of our cache of picks and prospects.

Yup, and the price will continue to drop as the trade deadline approaches.

Who knows how Embiid is going to do? He could very well get injured again and be out of the league, at which point they'd absolutely want to keep Noel.

I'm hoping this was an eye-opener for them and they trade him on the cheap for us now after not getting anything in free agency. If we can still get him on the cheap later this summer or something (say a future non-Brooklyn pick and Rozier) then I'll be fine with the Brown pick, even though I also don't really see franchise-guy on him.

I think Rozier (or maybe Jackson) and the 2018 Celtics pick for Noel would be about right for the deal.  One side may need to throw in a 2nd rounder or two

[LilRip]

It's really too early to tell.  I think in the absolute best case he's similar to Jimmy Butler or Andre Iguodala.

But he might end up closer to Jeff Green / Harrison Barnes, or maybe Tyreke Evans.

Probably not ever a "franchise" guy, but maybe a top 3 contributor for a good team.

Sounds about right. Maybe even higher on the high end.

I posted Pierce's shooting numbers the other day as a freshman. His percentages were almost identical to Brown's as a freshman. We don't know whether he will get there, but we have at least one data point and it's the first one I looked for. I mean if he ends up a 35-40% shooter from 3, with those physical tools he'll be a heckuva player.

Seems like his upside is the highest along with maybe Bender's and Chriss's. So Danny took the upside risk and decided to live with the downside risk, vs. a safer pick like Dunn.

Let's keep working at this rationalization. I'm almost through the denial and anger stages and expect that by tomorrow I'll be excited, and if he lights up summer league (which means nothing) I'll be convinced of his greatness.

Well, it doesn't always not mean nothing. But Jaylen Brown has to absolutely embarrass summer league competition (like what Drummond or Lillard did). He can't just light it up and look pretty good. He has to look like a future HoF-er against SL

[PhoSita]

I see Kedrick Brown. I see failure. Did we load up for Kevin Durant? He really must want to come here now. The Knicks are a more attractive team now than the Celtics for KD.

Why would you select a SF, when you already have a SF better than him and then pursue the second best SF in the world.  The selection of Brown clearly indicates to me that Boston doesn't expect to do anything in free agency and is going to go full on rebuilding.  Only thing that makes sense.  If Boston thought it was a real player in free agency it would have made the trade with Philly and picked up Noel who is at a real position of need and that no matter who you sign in free agency would have minutes on the roster.

Yeah, this is what the scary thing is. Danny keeps saying "we still have free agency," but who is legitimately going to come here now? You can pretty much count out Durant and Horford, because we didn't upgrade the roster enough for them. Whiteside? Are we prepared to pay him big money? Barnes? Batum? I just don't see it. This was another swing and a miss by Danny.

I don't think this signals a rebuild, it just signals another year or more of giving most of the minutes to stop-gap guys and bringing younger guys along slowly off the bench, while we rumble toward a first round exit.

But hey, the Celts are still "flexible," and that pile of assets is still, you know, decent, I guess.  Still two more Brooklyn picks coming.  And there's the LAC and Memphis picks!  Woo picks!  So value.  Much trades.

I mean, yeah, it doesn't signal a rebuild, because we're still rebuilding. lol But, yeah, I totally agree with you. Talk is cheap, and after three summers of "flexibility," I'm starting to think it's just a misnomer for, "Well, we tried, but we couldn't fleece anyone in a deal. So it's better to keep our options open for when we can finally get a star from a GM who we can fleece."

My issue is really that I don't believe in the value of fighting for 45-50 wins if we still don't have a centerpiece and the way forward is so nebulous.  People always talk about how winning games will make our players more appealing to trade partners, and make the Celtics a prime destination for free agents.

Yeah, color me skeptical.

If the team is going to use a million draft picks and still not contend for anything beyond possibly winning a first round series, I'd rather they just double down on youth.  Not the same thing as tanking.  Just ask -- will this guy still be here in four or five years, and will he be better than he is now? -- and proceed accordingly.

Instead I fully expect them to re-sign Turner and spend short term money on guys like Dudley / Ryno / Noah etc, while Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart each play 20 minutes or so off the bench.

[PhoSita]

Tyreke isn't even a bad comp for me.

He had a ton of talent and could have become a great player, but never developed the well rounded team game with the Kings after they just let him do whatever he wanted with the ball.

You just have to coach/develop better and hope. Draft is always a crap shoot after all.

Thing with the Reke comparison is I'm not sure Brown can pass like that.  Reke averaged 5 assists as a rookie.

Also, Reke had some really smooth moves getting to the rim.  Brown is more of a straight line dunk-on-you-or-bounce-off-three-defenders kind of guy.

[Vermont Green]

I see Kedrick Brown. I see failure. Did we load up for Kevin Durant? He really must want to come here now. The Knicks are a more attractive team now than the Celtics for KD.

I see Kawhi Leonard.

Yes, the Yin and the Yang summed up in a couple of short posts.  I figured some would see Kendrick Brown but when Kendrick was freshman, he was playing at a community college, not winning freshman of the year in a legitamate NCAA division 1 conference

[Robb]

I see Kedrick Brown. I see failure. Did we load up for Kevin Durant? He really must want to come here now. The Knicks are a more attractive team now than the Celtics for KD.

I see Kawhi Leonard.

Yes, the Yin and the Yang summed up in a couple of short posts.  I figured some would see Kendrick Brown but when Kendrick was freshman, he was playing at a community college, not winning freshman of the year in a legitamate NCAA division 1 conference

And the thin line between the two: Jeff Green. A guy who looks like he has every tool, passes every eye test, and who never figures out how to positively affect a basketball game.

[BlackCeltic]

I see Kedrick Brown. I see failure. Did we load up for Kevin Durant? He really must want to come here now. The Knicks are a more attractive team now than the Celtics for KD.

I see Kawhi Leonard.

Yes, the Yin and the Yang summed up in a couple of short posts.  I figured some would see Kendrick Brown but when Kendrick was freshman, he was playing at a community college, not winning freshman of the year in a legitamate NCAA division 1 conference

And the thin line between the two: Jeff Green. A guy who looks like he has every tool, passes every eye test, and who never figures out how to positively affect a basketball game.

Jeff Green is not the same personality as Jaylen Brown.

[kozlodoev]

I see Kedrick Brown. I see failure.

The Kedrick Brown situation was completely different though. Brown was a JuCo prospect who put massive stats and was held out of most predraft activities. He really wasn't considered a first round prospect at all until the summer of the draft.

[Ed Hollison]

I’m really disappointed by the reaction of this forum to Brown.

We constantly talk here about how you need a franchise player – and perhaps even a GENERATIONAL player – to win a championship. Well, Simmons and Ingram were off the board, and they’re far from sure things anyway. Ainge was in discussions for Butler but according to the Chicago Tribune this morning he would have had to give up the farm. (Plus, Butler is a stud but a tier below the Lebrons, Durants, Westbrooks, etc. of the league.)

So what do you do? You swing for the fences on a guy who has the following: 1) supreme physical talent, 2) an insatiable work ethic, and 3) a good head on his shoulders.

Be patient. And I’m not just talking about waiting until after summer league.

[max215]

With good coaching, development, and patience, I don't see why not; he has the tools. For now, I'm going to believe that he's our star of the future.

[Fred Roberts]

Sounds like most folks are disappointed. I think we made the right pick. I don't think Simmons or Ingram are sure things either, and I think Jaylen has some serious talent. This is the guy I wanted at 3, and he was projected as such most of the college season. Only recently with the draft buzz did he fall in projections . . .. and historically, what good are those anyways.

We picked a guy that CAN become something special. I didn't see that in many other prospects.

The Jeff Green comparison might be better for Bentil. He's the exact same height, size, etc.

Brown could earn time early as a slasher/defender, and add from there.

[BlackCeltic]

It's really too early to tell.  I think in the absolute best case he's similar to Jimmy Butler or Andre Iguodala.

But he might end up closer to Jeff Green / Harrison Barnes, or maybe Tyreke Evans.

Probably not ever a "franchise" guy, but maybe a top 3 contributor for a good team.

Sounds about right. Maybe even higher on the high end.

I posted Pierce's shooting numbers the other day as a freshman. His percentages were almost identical to Brown's as a freshman. We don't know whether he will get there, but we have at least one data point and it's the first one I looked for. I mean if he ends up a 35-40% shooter from 3, with those physical tools he'll be a heckuva player.

Seems like his upside is the highest along with maybe Bender's and Chriss's. So Danny took the upside risk and decided to live with the downside risk, vs. a safer pick like Dunn.

Let's keep working at this rationalization. I'm almost through the denial and anger stages and expect that by tomorrow I'll be excited, and if he lights up summer league (which means nothing) I'll be convinced of his greatness.

Well, it doesn't always not mean nothing. But Jaylen Brown has to absolutely embarrass summer league competition (like what Drummond or Lillard did). He can't just light it up and look pretty good. He has to look like a future HoF-er against SL

What happens if Ben Simmons and Ingram look pretty good against their respective clubs? I was at Lebron James first Summer League game ever at Umass Boston where he only looked "pretty good". As each game went on he looked more and more comfortable against his competition, but it was a process.

[Fafnir]

Tyreke isn't even a bad comp for me.

He had a ton of talent and could have become a great player, but never developed the well rounded team game with the Kings after they just let him do whatever he wanted with the ball.

You just have to coach/develop better and hope. Draft is always a crap shoot after all.

Thing with the Reke comparison is I'm not sure Brown can pass like that.  Reke averaged 5 assists as a rookie.

Also, Reke had some really smooth moves getting to the rim.  Brown is more of a straight line dunk-on-you-or-bounce-off-three-defenders kind of guy.

Yeah I don't see them as that similar, Reke was put at point for his college days after some stints off ball at first.

But Evans was a great prospect who wasn't put in a great position to succeed by the Kings. I wouldn't be scared to pick a similar player if I trusted my org.