Author Topic: Rumor: Celtics, among others, in contact with Sixers about Noel/Okafor  (Read 58652 times)

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Offline walker834

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Then why hasn't a deal been done?  The sixers would reportedly rather part with Okafor over Noel. We'd rather Noel according to reports.  It's all just speculation at this point and teams posturing.

I agree it's close between Okafor and Noel.  Take your pick. Both guys could help us and a deal may end up being done here.

The sixers are pressuring to make a deal for Dunn before the draft.   

This scenario compared to any other seems to be the most likely to happen right now.  Both sides seem to be pretty heated.

IT's more coming from the Sixers though.  The Bulls and Butler stuff seems to be coming from us.  Guage it as you may. This may be the most fun draft in a while.

Other years I didn't feel those same winds blowing . They were but it seems pretty heated this time.

I will be amazed if come draft time the celtics sit there and make 8 picks. They might but trades are going to happen.  If ainge figures this all out and we come out really good he is a genius.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 04:55:47 AM by walker834 »

Offline walker834

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If Okafor is a potential franchise player and the sixers would rather part with him a deal would be done by now though unless ainge is stupid.

I don't think it's that simple.   Okafor has some questions to him.  So does Noel although Noel is the more sure thing as a defensive anchor.  Okafor could be a star for sure even a superstar.  I more see him on Kyrie's level though. He has flaws right now.

I feel like this scenario is a good one though regardless. 

I hope we make the right choice.  Okafor has a high ceiling but he also has the biggest question marks imo.  He could be a lazy pro.

Noel to me is going to be a defensive anchor.

I would be thrilled with either.  I would not trade for Okafor right this second but if it's Okafor in the end I would be thrilled.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 05:19:32 AM by walker834 »

Offline crimson_stallion

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The dude averaged 17 in his rookie year when being asked to completely carry a sad team on the offensive end.

The fact that he was being asked to "carry a sad team on the offensive end" is exactly the reason why his 17 PPG wasn't that impressive.

In Avery Bradley's first three seasons when he was playing behind Rajon/Ray/Paul/Kevin, he consistently averaged around 12 points Per 36.

Once Ray, Paul and Kevin all left, Bradley saw a significantly increased role - his scoring average jumped to around 16.5 Points Per 36 over the next three seasons due to his increased role in the offense.  That's an increase of around 40% to his Per-36 scoring rate.

Over his first three seasons in OKC, while playing behind Durant and Westbrook, James Harden averaged around 17.1 Points Per 36.  Over his next four seasons in Houston (where he was the #1 guy) his averaged jumped to around 26.9 Points Per 36.  Why? Because he was the #3 banana in OKC and the clear #1 banana in Houston.  A drop of around 57%.

Kevin Love averaged 25.9 Points Per 36 as the #1 man in his last season in Minnesota, and that dropped to 17.5 Points Per 36 when he became a #3 guy in Cleveland.  A drop of around 48%.

Ray Allen averaged 23.6 Points Per 36 in his last season as the #1 guy in Seattle, and that dropped to 17.5 Points Per 36 when he became the #3 guy in Boston.  A drop of around 35%.

Chris Bosh averaged 23.9 Points Per 36 in his last season as the #1 guy in Toronto, and that dropped to 18.5 Points Per 36 when he became the #3 guy in Miami.  A drop of around 29%.

It's simple common sense - being the #1 guy on a bad team is gong to INFLATE your stats, not DEFLATE them.  So Okafor's average of 17 PPG on one of the worst basketball teams in history (which had no other competent scorers) is not a grand achievement.  Not saying it's a bad thing, but it's not exactly "wow" worthy either. If he were on the Suns or Wolves sharing the scoring load with Bledsoe/Knight or Wiggins, he probably would have been lucky to average 14 or 15 PPG.

Just basic basketball logic there. 


Plus his defense is extremely underrated IMO. 1-1 he is at least serviceable

No, it's not and he isn't.  He had the second worse defensive RPM in the entire NBA, with Enes Kanter (a guy infamous for being the worst defensive big in the NBA) being he only guy who ranked worse.  His defensive rating was no better either.  Ever advanced defensive statistic out there will tell you that he was an utterly atrocious defensive player - one of the worst defensive bigs in the entire league.

Al Jefferson, despite his reputation, was never CLOSE to being that bad on defense.

Oh and you can't blame the team's shoddiness for that stat either, because Nerlens Noel (who played on the exact same team) had one of the league's top defensive ratings.   There is no way to sugarcoat that.


and gets rebounds at a decent rate.

No, he doesn't.

Okafor's total rebound rate of 12.8% is utterly woeful for an NBA center - even more so when you consider the sheer size and physical presence he has.

Brook Lopez has been known for being one of the worst rebounding centers in the NBA for years now, and he had a rebound rate of 15.8% his rookie year, and 13.1% for his career.

Kelly Olynyk (who is far from a great rebounder) had a rebound rate of 13.1% in his rookie year, and has a career rebound rate of 12.4% - Okafor has been rebounding about on par with KO, which is absolutely embarrassing for a 6'11", 270 pound monster who lives in the paint.

TP Crimson, I wish I could give you 10 TP's.

Adam Jones, read this again one more time for me, cause that about sums up exactly what I was gonna say.

Al Jefferson was a 20/10 guy. And he wasn't as much of a drag on your offense as Okafor is right now. But hey, Big Al was a good player. Would you trade the #3 pick in an average/above average draft for a 20 year old Al Jefferson though?

I wouldn't, we're aiming higher than that. You want more than Okafor if you do that deal, and I'm not sure how much else Philly has to give. Does Covington move the needle?

Me thinks someone cares a little too much about counting stats.

Stick Al Jefferson on this year's 76ers team and the results are far worse than Okafor. It's a trainwreck.

I just can't see how people can compare Okafor's numbers playing for literally the WORST team in NBA history as the single offensive option, with no shooters, and his only help defender being Noel (when they were on the floor together). He had zero help on the perimeter and opposing wings got into the paint at will vs OKafor, leaving him to come over and help or stay with his man and let the opponent score/get to the line.

The situations are just incomparable and considering that Jahlil was 19 years old, he's being completely disrespected.

Anyway, the fact is that Ainge would never, ever trade the #3 pick for Noel.
For Okafor he might, as long as other pieces were included, but this Noel for #3 stuff is hilarious.

I'm sorry to say it, but it's your analysis that makes no sense.

I've already stated here - you cannot blame the 76ers crappiness for Okafor's problems. 

Why?

Because other guys have played for the the same crappy Philly teams and not had the same utterly horrible advanced stats.

You say there was no help, so Okafor got stuck having to defend everything - same is true for Noel, but he had a top 10 Defensive RPM among centers.   If the Sixer's lack of help defense is truly to blame for Okafor's defensive problems, then why did Noel not have terrible defensive numbers too? 

Answer:  Because Noel isn't a horrible defensive player, and Okafor is. 

Might Okafor's defensive numbers look a little less terrible if he were on a better defensive team?  Maybe, maybe not.  You can't say they would, because you haven't seen him on another team. 

However we've seen Noel on the 2014/15 76ers (which IIRC was actually pretty solid defensively, just sucked offensively) and we've seen him on the 2015/16 76ers (which you state was so horrible defensively), and his Defensive RPM remained similarly impressive in both seasons.    So I think don't believe there is any realistic / logical way you can blame the quality of the 76ers team for Okafor's poor defensive play.

Secondly, you then go ahead and blame the 76ers crapiness for Okafor's limited offensive game.  I don't get how this works because if Okafor is as great an offensive player as you claim, and he was getting ALL the shots for Philly (as you suggest) then he should have had scoring numbers that were through the roof, because he should have been chucking up shots left right and center.  He didn't through.  He averaged 17 PPG - a solid number, but not a spectacular one given the circumstances.

You claim that being on such a bad team should bring his stats down, but Nerlens Noel (one of the worst offensive centers in the NBA) managed to average 11 PPG on 52% shooting for the Sixers last year. 

Ish Smith averaged almost 15 PPG on that 76ers team, for crying out loud.  His career high prior to 2014/15 season (when he first joined Philly) was 4.5 PPG!!!  But the two seasons he played for Philly (14/15 and 15/16) he managed double figure scoring averages - 12 PPG and 14.7 PPG, respectively.

If Nerlens Noel and Ish Smith can average 11 PPG and 14.7 PPG playing for the 76ers, then what does that tell you?  It tells you that ANYBODY who plays on that Philly team is going to have their scoring numbers exaggerated based purely on the number of extra touches they are getting...which they would never get on a better (i.e. ANY other) team. 

If your logic was valid and playing for the 76ers made guys' stats look worse, then Ish Smith should have had one of the worst statistical seasons of his career - but instead he averaged a career high 16.3 Points Per 36 Minutes.

So once again, I fail to understand your logic of how being the #1 scoring option on a bad team (that has no other scorers) would do anything but elevate your stats. 

Happy to listen to reason if you can give me a compelling argument, but from where I'm standing (or at least, sitting) I do not see one.

Offline crimson_stallion

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P.s. In response to the idea that Jefferson would have been worse on the 76ers - I'm confused by this sentiment.

Al Jefferson was a better player as a rookie then Okafor.  He was at least on par with Okafor as a post scorer and as a jump shooter.  He was a better passer, a better rebounder and a better defender - all by significant margins.  Far better at drawing fouls and getting to the line too.

If Okafor can average 17 PPG on this  Philly team, then Jefrerson would have averaged upwards of 20 PPG.  There is literally NOTHING Okafor does better then a younger Jefferson bar maybe shotblocking.

Offline chambers

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The dude averaged 17 in his rookie year when being asked to completely carry a sad team on the offensive end.

The fact that he was being asked to "carry a sad team on the offensive end" is exactly the reason why his 17 PPG wasn't that impressive.

In Avery Bradley's first three seasons when he was playing behind Rajon/Ray/Paul/Kevin, he consistently averaged around 12 points Per 36.

Once Ray, Paul and Kevin all left, Bradley saw a significantly increased role - his scoring average jumped to around 16.5 Points Per 36 over the next three seasons due to his increased role in the offense.  That's an increase of around 40% to his Per-36 scoring rate.

Over his first three seasons in OKC, while playing behind Durant and Westbrook, James Harden averaged around 17.1 Points Per 36.  Over his next four seasons in Houston (where he was the #1 guy) his averaged jumped to around 26.9 Points Per 36.  Why? Because he was the #3 banana in OKC and the clear #1 banana in Houston.  A drop of around 57%.

Kevin Love averaged 25.9 Points Per 36 as the #1 man in his last season in Minnesota, and that dropped to 17.5 Points Per 36 when he became a #3 guy in Cleveland.  A drop of around 48%.

Ray Allen averaged 23.6 Points Per 36 in his last season as the #1 guy in Seattle, and that dropped to 17.5 Points Per 36 when he became the #3 guy in Boston.  A drop of around 35%.

Chris Bosh averaged 23.9 Points Per 36 in his last season as the #1 guy in Toronto, and that dropped to 18.5 Points Per 36 when he became the #3 guy in Miami.  A drop of around 29%.

It's simple common sense - being the #1 guy on a bad team is gong to INFLATE your stats, not DEFLATE them.  So Okafor's average of 17 PPG on one of the worst basketball teams in history (which had no other competent scorers) is not a grand achievement.  Not saying it's a bad thing, but it's not exactly "wow" worthy either. If he were on the Suns or Wolves sharing the scoring load with Bledsoe/Knight or Wiggins, he probably would have been lucky to average 14 or 15 PPG.

Just basic basketball logic there. 


Plus his defense is extremely underrated IMO. 1-1 he is at least serviceable

No, it's not and he isn't.  He had the second worse defensive RPM in the entire NBA, with Enes Kanter (a guy infamous for being the worst defensive big in the NBA) being he only guy who ranked worse.  His defensive rating was no better either.  Ever advanced defensive statistic out there will tell you that he was an utterly atrocious defensive player - one of the worst defensive bigs in the entire league.

Al Jefferson, despite his reputation, was never CLOSE to being that bad on defense.

Oh and you can't blame the team's shoddiness for that stat either, because Nerlens Noel (who played on the exact same team) had one of the league's top defensive ratings.   There is no way to sugarcoat that.


and gets rebounds at a decent rate.

No, he doesn't.

Okafor's total rebound rate of 12.8% is utterly woeful for an NBA center - even more so when you consider the sheer size and physical presence he has.

Brook Lopez has been known for being one of the worst rebounding centers in the NBA for years now, and he had a rebound rate of 15.8% his rookie year, and 13.1% for his career.

Kelly Olynyk (who is far from a great rebounder) had a rebound rate of 13.1% in his rookie year, and has a career rebound rate of 12.4% - Okafor has been rebounding about on par with KO, which is absolutely embarrassing for a 6'11", 270 pound monster who lives in the paint.

TP Crimson, I wish I could give you 10 TP's.

Adam Jones, read this again one more time for me, cause that about sums up exactly what I was gonna say.

Al Jefferson was a 20/10 guy. And he wasn't as much of a drag on your offense as Okafor is right now. But hey, Big Al was a good player. Would you trade the #3 pick in an average/above average draft for a 20 year old Al Jefferson though?

I wouldn't, we're aiming higher than that. You want more than Okafor if you do that deal, and I'm not sure how much else Philly has to give. Does Covington move the needle?

Me thinks someone cares a little too much about counting stats.

Stick Al Jefferson on this year's 76ers team and the results are far worse than Okafor. It's a trainwreck.

I just can't see how people can compare Okafor's numbers playing for literally the WORST team in NBA history as the single offensive option, with no shooters, and his only help defender being Noel (when they were on the floor together). He had zero help on the perimeter and opposing wings got into the paint at will vs OKafor, leaving him to come over and help or stay with his man and let the opponent score/get to the line.

The situations are just incomparable and considering that Jahlil was 19 years old, he's being completely disrespected.

Anyway, the fact is that Ainge would never, ever trade the #3 pick for Noel.
For Okafor he might, as long as other pieces were included, but this Noel for #3 stuff is hilarious.

I'm sorry to say it, but it's your analysis that makes no sense.

I've already stated here - you cannot blame the 76ers crappiness for Okafor's problems. 

Why?

Because other guys have played for the the same crappy Philly teams and not had the same utterly horrible advanced stats.

You say there was no help, so Okafor got stuck having to defend everything - same is true for Noel, but he had a top 10 Defensive RPM among centers.   If the Sixer's lack of help defense is truly to blame for Okafor's defensive problems, then why did Noel not have terrible defensive numbers too? 

Answer:  Because Noel isn't a horrible defensive player, and Okafor is. 

Might Okafor's defensive numbers look a little less terrible if he were on a better defensive team?  Maybe, maybe not.  You can't say they would, because you haven't seen him on another team. 

However we've seen Noel on the 2014/15 76ers (which IIRC was actually pretty solid defensively, just sucked offensively) and we've seen him on the 2015/16 76ers (which you state was so horrible defensively), and his Defensive RPM remained similarly impressive in both seasons.    So I think don't believe there is any realistic / logical way you can blame the quality of the 76ers team for Okafor's poor defensive play.

Secondly, you then go ahead and blame the 76ers crapiness for Okafor's limited offensive game.  I don't get how this works because if Okafor is as great an offensive player as you claim, and he was getting ALL the shots for Philly (as you suggest) then he should have had scoring numbers that were through the roof, because he should have been chucking up shots left right and center.  He didn't through.  He averaged 17 PPG - a solid number, but not a spectacular one given the circumstances.

You claim that being on such a bad team should bring his stats down, but Nerlens Noel (one of the worst offensive centers in the NBA) managed to average 11 PPG on 52% shooting for the Sixers last year. 

Ish Smith averaged almost 15 PPG on that 76ers team, for crying out loud.  His career high prior to 2014/15 season (when he first joined Philly) was 4.5 PPG!!!  But the two seasons he played for Philly (14/15 and 15/16) he managed double figure scoring averages - 12 PPG and 14.7 PPG, respectively.

If Nerlens Noel and Ish Smith can average 11 PPG and 14.7 PPG playing for the 76ers, then what does that tell you?  It tells you that ANYBODY who plays on that Philly team is going to have their scoring numbers exaggerated based purely on the number of extra touches they are getting...which they would never get on a better (i.e. ANY other) team. 

If your logic was valid and playing for the 76ers made guys' stats look worse, then Ish Smith should have had one of the worst statistical seasons of his career - but instead he averaged a career high 16.3 Points Per 36 Minutes.

So once again, I fail to understand your logic of how being the #1 scoring option on a bad team (that has no other scorers) would do anything but elevate your stats. 

Happy to listen to reason if you can give me a compelling argument, but from where I'm standing (or at least, sitting) I do not see one.

I'm not saying Okafor is an elite defender, I'm saying that he's passable, and at 19/20 years old, with the IQ and agility, wingspan that he has, he can be turned into a very serviceable player on the defensive end with elite/franchise level scoring in the post.

Up until February, Okafor had the same defensive rating at Karl Towns at 107. Does that mean Karl Towns was a terrible defender?

Let's compare Okafor to DeAndre Jordan for the whole season up to the All Star Break.
If we look at their difference rating (this shows the difference in  FG% a player shoots against one player compared to against the rest of the league), we see that Jordan kept his opponents to -6.8% FG% compared to that players average FG% So if James Harden scored 48% on shot attempts from 0-6 feet as an average, when he came up against DeAndre, he shot less than 42%.
What was Okafor's difference Rating?
-6.8%....exactly the same as DJ's.

From 6-10 feet? (which requires agility and the ability to guard the jumpshooter in PnR's a lot, and jumpshots in general...
DeAndre's rating: -3.3%

Okafor? -5.6%
That means that Okafor held the average opponent that took jumpshots against him to a lower FG% than DeAndre Jordan did.

Okafor isn't a terrible defender. His team was utterly terrible at stopping penetration.
Because Noel is a better defender, teams are going to target Okafor more, but his life would be a whole lot easier if Bradley, Smart and Crowder were out on the perimeter stopping the penetration that makes up the majority of Jah's defensive numbers.

Jah's an improving defender who was 19 years old at the beginning of the season.
He can be moulded, he can be coached.
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Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline Casperian

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to quote Haralabos Voulgaris, when asked about Okafor to Boston

Quote
Danny Ainge ain't that stupid
In the summer of 2017, I predicted this team would not win a championship for the next 10 years.

3 down, 7 to go.

Offline walker834

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Why not just take Brown?   As far as a person and ability I like him the best.  Best combination of offense and defense too. Crowder is good but it's not like we don't need a SF.  We have too many picks as it stands.

This is the problem with trade rumors is so much talk and the celtics usually end up staying put.  I like Noel and Okafor. They are also big men which is harder to find in ways.  That's how we got KG because we had Al j and big men are more covetted sometimes because there are less of them.

It's just more rare to find a guy that tall who is that good at basketball then a shorter guy by the math.  Great big men are truly rare. That said I don't think Okafor or Noel necessarily is that.

Big men can still impact the game on different levels.  I don't think the style of play has anything to do with that.  Okafor or Noel would probably win us more games off the bat but that's debateable.   They'd also be able to play. We are a guard heavy team as it is. The way the NBA is going it's not out of the question to have a guard heavy team.

I don't buy trends that much.   I think big men can still impact the game if utilized. It's just a guard heavy league because there are less quality big men right now.

Okafor and Noel are still growing. I don't see them as top of the top big men though. I see them as very good.  Brown also has the ability to be a very good SF though as well.  I like his ability to be a leader on this team too. 

Maybe we can get Brown and Okafor somehow or Noel. Philly really wants Dunn.  It would have to be a 3 way deal somehow where we get Brown, Philly gets Dunn, we get Okafor or Noel and give up players and future picks maybe.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 07:25:24 AM by walker834 »

Offline walker834

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We take Dunn.  Trade him to Philly.  Phoenix gets Noel or Okafor.  Philly gets Crowder and future picks.  We get  Phoenix's pick and take Brown. We also get Noel or Okafor.  So we get Brown and Okafor or noel.   Phoenix gets Okafor or Noel.   Philly gets Dunn, Crowder plus future picks.

They have Embiid. They don't need Okafor or Noel.   They are getting Simmons. Crowder would be a good compliment for them.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 07:34:01 AM by walker834 »

Offline BornReady

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if philly really wants Dunn, do you think they would give up either their Lakers 1st rounder?
As i assume LAL will still be terrible and in the lottery of 2017

Also I dont think the value of noel or okafor is that high

and everyone knows Philly need to move one of their bigs to free up playing time as if one is not playing  - their value will drop
So I think with their desperation for Dunn and diminishing value of their bigs, we will probably get the bigger end of the trade (more assets)

If we were to trade with them, I would go with noel
because of his defense and athleticism
but I'm not high on both of them and would prefer an established star like butler or cousins

Offline CoachBo

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Everyone who relies on advanced stats - in addition to that mistake - to hate on Okafor, makes another mistake. He's going to improve. He's 19.

Sorry to break it to you.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Offline boscel33

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The question the C's need to ask, do you trade for Okafor and hope he grows and becomes a better defender, or do you draft Brown, who is a ready made defensive player.
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Offline jambr380

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If we are really looking at Noel for a straight up trade for the #3, then we should seriously be looking at WCS and the #7 from SAC instead. Sure we likely may need to give up additional pieces, but more in the filler category rather than assets.

I will be very disappointed on draft night if I hear we traded Dunn for one year of Noel. Why not just sign Biyombo this off-season? They are going to make a similar amount anyway. Heck, Noel may even make more with playing for a successful Cs team and the cap rising again.

Please just say NO - el, Danny.

Offline tyrone biggums

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Everyone who relies on advanced stats - in addition to that mistake - to hate on Okafor, makes another mistake. He's going to improve. He's 19.

Sorry to break it to you.

I would not be p---ed to hear Okafor going to the Celtics for this very reason. This time last year people felt it was him or Towns that would go #1. All of a sudden after one year he's an NBA washout to people on this board. Celtics fans don't like him because he got into a fight after the game and is perceived as soft on this board. He's a star caliber guy. Which is why he's hated here. If this was a role player on the team like Mickey that got into that fight we would have all been behind him calling him tough etc...come on

Offline celticinorlando

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Okafor maybe..but no way would I trade for Noel.

Offline Vermont Green

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The question the C's need to ask, do you trade for Okafor and hope he grows and becomes a better defender, or do you draft Brown, who is a ready made defensive player.

But with Brown you have to hope he learns to score at the NBA level so this argument goes both ways.  With Okafor, you know what he can do at the NBA level and you assume at 19 or 20 that he will continue to improve in all areas of his game.

With Brown or any draft pick, you only know what he can do in college and everything else is a projection.

I can't pretend to know how much either player will continue to improve but Okafor has an NBA baseline to project from so I feel that makes projecting his potential more certain.  He can score in the NBA.  That is 100% certain.  You cannot say that for certain about any part of any draft pick's game, not one.

Will Murray be able to get his shot off?  Will Heild have enough quickness?  Will Bender every be strong enough?  Will Brown's defense translate to the NBA?  All questions.  Nobody knows, nobody.  You make your best guess an pick your guy.  That is drafting these days (with 18 and 19 year olds).