Author Topic: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?  (Read 22453 times)

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Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #90 on: May 19, 2016, 05:38:28 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Ive been against bender pretty much this whole year.

But that has just been my standard issue Euro-fear. I didnt want GA either.

I know almost nothing about him. Hes a huge mystery. However I dont understand how people can be so strongly against a mystery. I think we can all trust DA to do his HW to the point where he wont take the guy unless he has a good feel for him. The upside with Bender is obvious. He is really big and young and supposedly has a terrific mental makeup. I understand how you can prefer other players. I can see falling in love with Murray or Dunn or even Brown or Hield, but I want to know what Im missing in Bender. what info is out there that suggests this guy is gonna be a big bust?

Genuinely curious here, trying to form a legit evaluation of the guy.

For me it's because I see Bender is a really high risk (and long term) prospect for a number of reasons:

1) The fact we haven't seen him play meaningful minutes against other lottery candidates
2) The fact that his body is not NBA ready
3) The fact that he has skills, but they are generally in need of significant development

Firstly, it meant a lot to me to be able to see Pierce and KG retire as Celtics, and that is something we sacrificed in order to get this Brooklyn pick. 

Secondly, Boston NEVER gets top 3 picks - it's something that typically happens once a generation.

Thirdly, there are never any guaranteed that you'll be able to get quality talent through free agency or through trades - and Boston in particular has struggled to do that.

With all of the above taken into consideration, it would absolutely pain me to see this pick wasted on a guy who ends up becoming a bust.  If you are Philly or Sacramento (and get high picks almost every year) then you can afford to gamble on a couple of high picks here and there.  We don't really have that luxury.

Lets say we bust out on free agency again, and then bust out on trades again.  That would suck.  But if we can add a mature, NBA ready talent (like Hield, Dunn or Poeltl) who can contribute right away, then I will be content knowing that at least we have done something to improve our team.

Drafting a high risk player like Bender will mean that if we fail to make a big move in free agency or in trades, we're putting all our hope in to a high risk player who may not contribute anything for years (if at all).  That would feel like a massive waste of a #3 pick, because god only knows when we will ever get one again.

If we want to take a gamble on a high risk, high reward big man then I understand that - but there are other's in the draft (like Labissiere, Maker and Ivaca Zubac) and it's almost certain that at least one of those guys will be available with the Mavs or Celtics pick.  I just don't see the sense in taking such a huge gamble with what may well be the highest pick we're gong to get in 10 years.

I would understand it more if it was for a guy with superstar potential, but I just don't think Bender has that.  I think he has the potential to be a good starter, maybe a fringe all-star (a Horford type) at best. 

I feel that Hield and Dunn have two of the highest floors in this draft, and yet I also think both guys have the potential to be perennial All-Stars...so for that reason I just don't like the idea of drafting bender over those guys.  I don't think his upside is high enough to justify the risk.

I don't dislike Bender as a prospect - I just don't think he's the right prospect for us right now.

You sound like someone who wants to keep taking mid-range jumpers that you're comfortable with because you're afraid of missing a three even when the math says that's the higher value shot.
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Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #91 on: May 19, 2016, 06:09:03 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Ive been against bender pretty much this whole year.

But that has just been my standard issue Euro-fear. I didnt want GA either.

I know almost nothing about him. Hes a huge mystery. However I dont understand how people can be so strongly against a mystery. I think we can all trust DA to do his HW to the point where he wont take the guy unless he has a good feel for him. The upside with Bender is obvious. He is really big and young and supposedly has a terrific mental makeup. I understand how you can prefer other players. I can see falling in love with Murray or Dunn or even Brown or Hield, but I want to know what Im missing in Bender. what info is out there that suggests this guy is gonna be a big bust?

Genuinely curious here, trying to form a legit evaluation of the guy.

For me it's because I see Bender is a really high risk (and long term) prospect for a number of reasons:

1) The fact we haven't seen him play meaningful minutes against other lottery candidates
2) The fact that his body is not NBA ready
3) The fact that he has skills, but they are generally in need of significant development

Firstly, it meant a lot to me to be able to see Pierce and KG retire as Celtics, and that is something we sacrificed in order to get this Brooklyn pick. 

Secondly, Boston NEVER gets top 3 picks - it's something that typically happens once a generation.

Thirdly, there are never any guaranteed that you'll be able to get quality talent through free agency or through trades - and Boston in particular has struggled to do that.

With all of the above taken into consideration, it would absolutely pain me to see this pick wasted on a guy who ends up becoming a bust.  If you are Philly or Sacramento (and get high picks almost every year) then you can afford to gamble on a couple of high picks here and there.  We don't really have that luxury.

Lets say we bust out on free agency again, and then bust out on trades again.  That would suck.  But if we can add a mature, NBA ready talent (like Hield, Dunn or Poeltl) who can contribute right away, then I will be content knowing that at least we have done something to improve our team.

Drafting a high risk player like Bender will mean that if we fail to make a big move in free agency or in trades, we're putting all our hope in to a high risk player who may not contribute anything for years (if at all).  That would feel like a massive waste of a #3 pick, because god only knows when we will ever get one again.

If we want to take a gamble on a high risk, high reward big man then I understand that - but there are other's in the draft (like Labissiere, Maker and Ivaca Zubac) and it's almost certain that at least one of those guys will be available with the Mavs or Celtics pick.  I just don't see the sense in taking such a huge gamble with what may well be the highest pick we're gong to get in 10 years.

I would understand it more if it was for a guy with superstar potential, but I just don't think Bender has that.  I think he has the potential to be a good starter, maybe a fringe all-star (a Horford type) at best. 

I feel that Hield and Dunn have two of the highest floors in this draft, and yet I also think both guys have the potential to be perennial All-Stars...so for that reason I just don't like the idea of drafting bender over those guys.  I don't think his upside is high enough to justify the risk.

I don't dislike Bender as a prospect - I just don't think he's the right prospect for us right now.

You sound like someone who wants to keep taking mid-range jumpers that you're comfortable with because you're afraid of missing a three even when the math says that's the higher value shot.

Like KG? ;)

I'm not sure that's fair, since he identified Hield and Dunn as not only being safer, but having equal or better upside, as well.


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Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #92 on: May 19, 2016, 06:32:53 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I think there's a separation between Bender lovers/ haters that stems from one basic preference:

The willingness to gamble on a potential franchise guy.
The lovers see his size, stroke, agility, footwork and work ethic and see that there's potential to be a franchise player somewhere there.

The haters don't want this gamble. They want someone who is going to contribute earlier and isn't as much of a risk.

Personally for me, Simmons and Ingram were the only two in the top 5 that were pretty much a lock to be All Stars.
The rest of the draft (at least the ncaa guys) is solid but there aren't any other standout 'franchise' guys.

Bender, at 18 yrs old, is a big risk, but for the lovers, he's worth it because we desperately need a franchise player.
Humans with his physical attributes and mental aptitude do not come around very often and that's what's worth taking a risk on.

Basically for me, I'd be happy with Buddy Hield and he could certainly be an All Star. However I'm not really convinced he has the physical make up to be a franchise guy. Bender has that and it's in his size, length and agility-however risky that may be.

Franchise guy? cmon

you can't be producing what he has so far (his shortcomings, or coach stupidity) and even place the word "franchise" near his name

What's next, Lebron or Wade Jr. Is the next franchise guy?  Apparently they are doing really well for their age, because their dads are ......    Potential franchise??

You need to produce something substantial prior to the draft.  Against top level competition is better but even in your own league, produce solid stats

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #93 on: May 19, 2016, 07:06:35 AM »

Online Roy H.

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I don't understand where the "franchise" label comes from, either. Most of the scouting reports I have read don't expect Bender to be a volume scorer.

If he pans out, I would expect Kukoc more than Dirk.


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Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #94 on: May 19, 2016, 07:09:31 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Ive been against bender pretty much this whole year.

But that has just been my standard issue Euro-fear. I didnt want GA either.

I know almost nothing about him. Hes a huge mystery. However I dont understand how people can be so strongly against a mystery. I think we can all trust DA to do his HW to the point where he wont take the guy unless he has a good feel for him. The upside with Bender is obvious. He is really big and young and supposedly has a terrific mental makeup. I understand how you can prefer other players. I can see falling in love with Murray or Dunn or even Brown or Hield, but I want to know what Im missing in Bender. what info is out there that suggests this guy is gonna be a big bust?

Genuinely curious here, trying to form a legit evaluation of the guy.

For me it's because I see Bender is a really high risk (and long term) prospect for a number of reasons:

1) The fact we haven't seen him play meaningful minutes against other lottery candidates
2) The fact that his body is not NBA ready
3) The fact that he has skills, but they are generally in need of significant development

Firstly, it meant a lot to me to be able to see Pierce and KG retire as Celtics, and that is something we sacrificed in order to get this Brooklyn pick. 

Secondly, Boston NEVER gets top 3 picks - it's something that typically happens once a generation.

Thirdly, there are never any guaranteed that you'll be able to get quality talent through free agency or through trades - and Boston in particular has struggled to do that.

With all of the above taken into consideration, it would absolutely pain me to see this pick wasted on a guy who ends up becoming a bust.  If you are Philly or Sacramento (and get high picks almost every year) then you can afford to gamble on a couple of high picks here and there.  We don't really have that luxury.

Lets say we bust out on free agency again, and then bust out on trades again.  That would suck.  But if we can add a mature, NBA ready talent (like Hield, Dunn or Poeltl) who can contribute right away, then I will be content knowing that at least we have done something to improve our team.

Drafting a high risk player like Bender will mean that if we fail to make a big move in free agency or in trades, we're putting all our hope in to a high risk player who may not contribute anything for years (if at all).  That would feel like a massive waste of a #3 pick, because god only knows when we will ever get one again.

If we want to take a gamble on a high risk, high reward big man then I understand that - but there are other's in the draft (like Labissiere, Maker and Ivaca Zubac) and it's almost certain that at least one of those guys will be available with the Mavs or Celtics pick.  I just don't see the sense in taking such a huge gamble with what may well be the highest pick we're gong to get in 10 years.

I would understand it more if it was for a guy with superstar potential, but I just don't think Bender has that.  I think he has the potential to be a good starter, maybe a fringe all-star (a Horford type) at best. 

I feel that Hield and Dunn have two of the highest floors in this draft, and yet I also think both guys have the potential to be perennial All-Stars...so for that reason I just don't like the idea of drafting bender over those guys.  I don't think his upside is high enough to justify the risk.

I don't dislike Bender as a prospect - I just don't think he's the right prospect for us right now.

You sound like someone who wants to keep taking mid-range jumpers that you're comfortable with because you're afraid of missing a three even when the math says that's the higher value shot.

I do not see it this way at all.

If you are comparing prospects to basketball shots, I would look at it this way:

* Free throw = low risk, low potential (only 1 point)
* Layup = low risk, medium potential (2 points)
* Floater = medium risk, medium potential (2 points)
* Long two = high risk, medium potential (2 points)
* And 1 = low risk, high potential (3 points)
* Corner Three = medium risk, high potential (3 points)
* Half court shot = high risk, high potential (3 points)

If I were to go off that scale, then I would rate the top prospects as follows:

Simmons: And 1
Ingram: Corner three
Bender: Long two
Hield: And 1
Dunn: And 1
Murray: Floater
Brown: Floater
Poeltl: Layup
Labissiere: Half court shot
Valentine: Free Throw

This because I see Bender someone who is a high risk prospect, but who has only medium potential. 

That's why I see drafting Bender at #3 as being about the equivalent of taking a long two early in the shot clock.

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #95 on: May 19, 2016, 07:23:56 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I don't understand where the "franchise" label comes from, either. Most of the scouting reports I have read don't expect Bender to be a volume scorer.

If he pans out, I would expect Kukoc more than Dirk.

Exactly.

On a scale where 0% is impossible and 100% is certain, I would say that the chance of Bender becoming a franchise player is about 2% - 3%.

I think Simmons and Ingram are the most likely to be franchise players in this draft, followed by Hield (who could become a stronger version of Reggie Miller), then probably Dunn (who could become a better shooting version of D-Wade / D-Rose).

If you look at true franchise players from the past, in almost all cases those guys have been dominant from before they entered the draft, to the moment they stepped onto an NBA court.

Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, CP3, Ewing, Shaq, Duncan, KG - every one of those guys had proven they were capable of dominating the game long before their name got called on draft day...be it in college, high school, or wherever they were.   

In all honesty, the same is mostly true for perennial all-stars as well.  Guys like Dirk, Wade, Bosh, Kyrie, etc.

Bender's ceiling is much closer to the likes of Al Horford, Al Jefferson, Toni Kukoc, Andre Iguodala, etc.  Guys who run that fine line between "good starter" and "all-star".  Guys who's probability of making an all-star game is probably dependant almost entirely on whether their team has a good year or not. 

There's nothing about Bender's game that indicates he has 'franchise player' potential.  He's not a dominate scorer, a dominant rebounder, a dominant defender - he's not a dominant anything.  He's just a guy who is competent-to-good at a lot of things, without any real major glaring weaknesses (other than his frame - which he might be able to improve on). 

All of this suggests he could develop into the type of all-rounder glue guy that would make any team better...but it also suggests that he's unlikely to ever be the best player on a contender (hence my Horford comparison).

If I had to rate Bender out of 10 on risk and potential, I'd probably give him around a 7.5 for risk and a 7 for potential.

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #96 on: May 19, 2016, 07:37:11 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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You sound like someone who wants to keep taking mid-range jumpers that you're comfortable with because you're afraid of missing a three even when the math says that's the higher value shot.
And most Bender fans sound like someone who stubbornly insists on chucking threes even though they shoot .250.
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Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #97 on: May 19, 2016, 07:50:02 AM »

Offline Eddie20

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You sound like someone who wants to keep taking mid-range jumpers that you're comfortable with because you're afraid of missing a three even when the math says that's the higher value shot.
And most Bender fans sound like someone who stubbornly insists on chucking threes even though they shoot .250.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582

I think you mean 40%, and that's not from college 3 distance either.

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #98 on: May 19, 2016, 08:08:20 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Just to explain myself a bit further, I will give a bit of an explanation as to how I analyse draft prospects.

First of all, I don't JUST look at the stats.  Of course I don't ignore the stats, and they play significant weight in my analysis, but that's not ALL I look at. 

One of the key things I look at is footage and highlights, because they help to explain how those stats came about, and how I see a player getting by at the NBA level. I want to see both a guy's style of play, and his capabilities - what he can do on the court.

For example, when I look at highlights of Ben Simmons, I see some crazy things.  I look at some of the dribbling moves that guy pulls, the crazy passes he gets off, the way he runs the floor, the way he jumps - I look at that stuff and I say to myself "I haven't seen a lot of guys his size who can do THAT - that is a special player".

I look at Ingram and the ease at which he hits contested jumpers, the ease at which he gets to (and finishes at) the basket, the ease at which he gets his shot off in general and how smooth he looks - how effective he is at using that rediculous length to gets shots off against any and all defenders.  I look at that and I say to myself "I haven't seen a lot of guys who can do what he does - that is a special player".   

I look at Hield, and the first thing I see is his rediculous scoring numbers and percentages.  But to get context I look past that, and I watch footage.  I look how quickly and high Hield's release is, and how he uses that to get off contested three point shots like they are layups.  I see him hitting shots from 5 feet outside the three point line without breaking a sweat - it just looks so easy to him.  I see him getting into the paint and making contested pull-up midrange jumpers and once again, it he just make it look so incredibly easy.  I watch the way he battles defensively - never giving up on plays, even if he gets beat by a defender.  I look at all of these things and I say to myself "I haven't seen many guys who can make big shots like he does - he's going to be a special player". 

I look at Dunn and his stats are good, but not elite.  But when I watch the film I see his explosiveness - the ease at which he gets buy guys.  I see how easily he gets into the paint, and how he managed to use his excellent strength and body control to take contact and make difficult off balance shots.  I look at his ability to stop on a dime and pull up from midrange, and his ability to hit the three.  I see his ability to use his handle and quickness to gets where he wants, and his ability to make big time passes.  I look at what he can do on the court, and I say "he's going to be a special player". 

I look at Labissiere and I see similar things.  I see the way he moves, the way he blocks shot after shot so ridiculously effortlessly, how high he gets off the ground (and how easily), and the way he changes the direction like a 6'6" guy - I see him hit those smooth looking hook shots, and that smooth release on his jumper.  I think to myself "if he puts in the work, this kid could dominate the game".

When I look at Bender and watch the tape, I just don't get any of those "awestruck" moments.  Nothing about his game really jumps out at me and screams "I'm a star!!".  His skills are obvious, but when he makes a nice play it always seems to be one of those plays that he SHOULD make. 

* He'll score over a guy who is 4" shorter
* He'll hit a wide open three point shot
* He'll make a smart (but simple) pass to an open teammate
* He'll run the ball up the floor when there is no defender challenging him
* He'll grab an offensive rebound against a much smaller opponent, then get the easy put back
* He'll sneak a block while playing help defence against an opponent who didn't see it (the help) coming,

I don't know if I have seen a single highlight of Bender that has shown him doing anything that actually really impressed me.  I don't think I've seen him make many (if any) contested threes, or hit fadeaway jumpers against quality defenders, or make nice post shots against long shot blockers, or grab rebounds over physically dominant guys, or get a one-on-one block against a high caliber post scorer.

Everything I've seen him do in the film has pretty much been him making smart plays, taking what the opponent gives him, and then capitalising on it.  There's nothing at all wrong with that, but I just don't see any evidence that suggests he's got the type of transcendent talent to be able to score as a number one or number two option when the opponent's attention is ALL on him. 

I see him as being (as I said) a lot like Horford is right now.  Give him an open three and he'll make it all night long - but put a body on him and he will disappear and become a complete non factor.

Put a body on Ingram and he'll use his length to shoot straight over you.  Put a body on Dunn and he will use his quickness and ball handling to blow past you.  Put a body on Hield and he'll just take 3 steps back and hit a 25 footer in your face.  Put a body on Simmons and he'll dribble past you and throw one down.

Put a body on Bender and what?  There's nothing he can do but throw up a contested jumper, or pass it off to a teammate.

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #99 on: May 19, 2016, 08:15:56 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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You sound like someone who wants to keep taking mid-range jumpers that you're comfortable with because you're afraid of missing a three even when the math says that's the higher value shot.
And most Bender fans sound like someone who stubbornly insists on chucking threes even though they shoot .250.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582

I think you mean 40%, and that's not from college 3 distance either.
I think you need to google "figurative language", then reread my post and what I was responding to.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #100 on: May 19, 2016, 08:17:29 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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You sound like someone who wants to keep taking mid-range jumpers that you're comfortable with because you're afraid of missing a three even when the math says that's the higher value shot.
And most Bender fans sound like someone who stubbornly insists on chucking threes even though they shoot .250.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582

I think you mean 40%, and that's not from college 3 distance either.

It was clearly a metaphor referencing the apparent misguided confidence that people have in Bender. 

More specifically, the fact that many Bender fans seem to blatantly refuse to open their eyes and acknowledge the fact he is an incredibly high risk prospect, and that taking him as high as #3 would be an extremely big gamble given the fact that he really hasn't proven much yet at any level, and that all hype is based on theoretical potential

To ignore Bender's high level or risk would be move reminiscent of Jared Sullinger - a guy who has no concerns with chucking up 4 three pointers a night despite the fact that (as a 25% or so three point shooter) each three point shot he takes carries a very high risk of not going in. 

I completely get it if there are people out there who acknowledge that Bender is a very high risk, but decide they are willing to take the gamble anyway because they feel his potential is sky high and worthy of the risk.  If that is your stance, then I can respect that.  I don't agree with it, but I can respect it.

But there are a ton of Bender fans (seems to be most of them, to be honest) who are utterly convinced that this guy is a [dang] near guaranteed star, and are completely oblivious to the risks involved in taking Bender so high in the draft. 

He wasn't suggesting that Bender is a 25% three point shooter.


When you mention that Bender hasn't proven himself in any meaningful sample size, all that comes back is "but he's only 18, he'd be a high school player if he was in the USA".  That's not a convincing argument, it's simply an excuse to try to justify his lack of meaningful production at any level. 

Reminding everybody that he is 18 years old (which I assure you, we are already perfectly aware of) does nothing at all to dissipate the concerns that he is a massive, massive gamble.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 08:30:07 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #101 on: May 19, 2016, 09:32:09 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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All wrong.

http://www.basketballforum.com/sacramento-kings/50512-kings-sign-bojko-mladenov.html

My point here is that trying to cast every obscure European seven footer who can walk and chew gum as the proverbial basketball "renaissance man" with guard skills is in fashion. If you're a scout or especially an agent, it's good business.

However, this often obfuscates the simple fact that you have to be able to play your position first, and everything else is gravy.
That was from 2003 right? I'd hope scouts have come a long way on foreign prospects since then. As well as the fact foreign competition has gotten better as well.

In recent years Vesely is the only true bust from Europe picked in the lottery. Bender is much more solid a prospect than you are willing to admit
Is that what you want with the third pick? A "not a bust"? If Bender turns into an Enes Kanter in terms of production, should we be happy because he's "not a bust"?
I want the best chance to be an All star. I look at it like this, there will be a hidden gem later in the draft, there will be someone else who develops way beyond their perceived ceiling. With the 3rd pick I want to end up with a top 5 player from the draft.
Maybe it's because we know more about the flaws in others games but Hield and Murray and Dunn all have fundamental limitations that make me think they won't end up top 5 talents in this draft. Defence, defence and agility, handles respectively.
For me Bender is scouted as having those fundamentals in his game. A technically sound defender, good shot mechanics, quick, agile feet and a mental makeup that will help him progress. That's what I got from scouting videos and things I've read.
Come workout time it may turn out my views were unfounded and Bender is none of those things. I doubt it but of course it's possible.
You can work on a players body, even James Young managed that. It's harder to teach fundamentals at the NBA level, something Young is also proving! So I choose the guy with the fundamentals and the mental game to improve. That's why I think his floor isn't as low as some think. That's why I think he'll progress as fast or faster than the other prospects at #3

I don't agree that Hield's defence is a fundamental flaw.  Did you see the type of scoring numbers Hield put up last year?  It's incredibly difficult for any player to put up those kind of scoring numbers in those kinds of minutes and ALSO be a plus defender at the same time. 

Even in the NBA there are but a handful of guys who can score ~25 PPG while also playing high level of defence for 35 minutes.   In fact Westbrook and Anthony Davis might be the only ones that I can think of who really do that.  Even Lebron is very well known for taking plays off on defence, as is Cousins (I won't even get started on Harden). 

From what I have read, Hield was actually a defensive role player when he first entered college (before he exploded as a scorer), but his defence became less consistent with that increased offensive role.  That's not uncommon at all. 

If you look at Hield, he has all of the tools to be an outstanding defensive player - solid height, great length, good physical strength, solid athleticism and a very high motor.   I think he has the potential to become a very, very good two-way player.   

Bender's defence looks nice now, but it's easy to play hard defence when you're only playing 18 minutes a night and you have a minimal offensive role. 

Rondo for example was an elite defensive PG when he was younger - it wasn't until the big three started to fade out (and Rondo had to step up to a bigger offensive role) that his defence started to really fall off.  He was arguably the best defensive PG in the NBA for a few years there.

Not saying that Bender's defensive potential is a farce or that he isn't a good defender, just saying that context is important.  It's a lot easier for Bender to play defence for 18 minute a game while taking 3 shots a night, then it is for Hield to play defence for 35 minutes a night while taking 17 shots a game.

The only real limitations I see in Hield's game are his playmaking and ball handling.  In his case though I really don't think they are a big concern because he's got good size and athleticism for the SG spot (so should be able to get past guys even without a great handle). 

Also because he is so good at hitting contested shots (and has such ridiculous range) that he doesn't necessarily need a great amount of space in order to get his shot off.

It's still a limitation though.

I think guys who become elite players however tend to always have something they are really exceptional at. 

- Hield is an exceptional shooter and an exceptional scorer. 
- Simmons is an exceptoinal passer, ball handler and rebounder. 
- Ingram is an exceptional shooter and scorer. 
- Dunn is an exceptional ball handler, passer and defender. 

I just don't see anything that Bender does at an 'exceptional' level, which is a big reason why I feel his ceiling isn't as high as people thing.  I think his defence is probably his greatest talent, but even his defensive ability is not (to my eyes) exceptional - just very good. 

I don't look at Bender and see a guy with the defensive potential of Nerlens Noel, Anthony Davis, Kevin Garnett, Deandre Jordan, Rudy Gobert or even Skal Labissiere.  I simply don't see that type of transcendent / dominant defensive talent in Bender.  I just see a very mobile 7 foot who runs the floor well and who has the lateral mobility to switch onto the occasional wing player. 

I don't think he's an elite defensive player, and I don't think he has the tools (quickness, strength, length, explosiveness, intensity) to ever be an elite defensive player.  If you look at the guys I just listed, everybody on that list has either a 7'5"+ wingspan or ridiculous athleticism (or both). 

Yet even though I don't see Bender as a guy with elite defensive potential, I think his defence is by far the strongest (and most NBA ready) part of his game... 
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 09:52:23 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #102 on: May 19, 2016, 09:52:00 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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All wrong.

http://www.basketballforum.com/sacramento-kings/50512-kings-sign-bojko-mladenov.html

My point here is that trying to cast every obscure European seven footer who can walk and chew gum as the proverbial basketball "renaissance man" with guard skills is in fashion. If you're a scout or especially an agent, it's good business.

However, this often obfuscates the simple fact that you have to be able to play your position first, and everything else is gravy.
That was from 2003 right? I'd hope scouts have come a long way on foreign prospects since then. As well as the fact foreign competition has gotten better as well.

In recent years Vesely is the only true bust from Europe picked in the lottery. Bender is much more solid a prospect than you are willing to admit
Is that what you want with the third pick? A "not a bust"? If Bender turns into an Enes Kanter in terms of production, should we be happy because he's "not a bust"?
I want the best chance to be an All star. I look at it like this, there will be a hidden gem later in the draft, there will be someone else who develops way beyond their perceived ceiling. With the 3rd pick I want to end up with a top 5 player from the draft.
Maybe it's because we know more about the flaws in others games but Hield and Murray and Dunn all have fundamental limitations that make me think they won't end up top 5 talents in this draft. Defence, defence and agility, handles respectively.
For me Bender is scouted as having those fundamentals in his game. A technically sound defender, good shot mechanics, quick, agile feet and a mental makeup that will help him progress. That's what I got from scouting videos and things I've read.
Come workout time it may turn out my views were unfounded and Bender is none of those things. I doubt it but of course it's possible.
You can work on a players body, even James Young managed that. It's harder to teach fundamentals at the NBA level, something Young is also proving! So I choose the guy with the fundamentals and the mental game to improve. That's why I think his floor isn't as low as some think. That's why I think he'll progress as fast or faster than the other prospects at #3

I'm not sure why you feel Hield has fundamental flaws. 

You've listed his defence as a major flaw - it really isn't.  Did you see the type of scoring numbers Hield put up last year?  It's incredibly difficult for any player to put up those kind of scoring numbers AND also be a plus defender at the same time. 

Even in the NBA there are but a handful of guys who can score 25 PPG while also playing high level of defence for 35+ minutes.   In fact Westbrook might be the only one that I can think of - even Lebron is very well known for taking plays off on defence.

From what I have read, Hield was actually a defensive role player when he first entered college (before he exploded as a scorer), but his defence became less consistent with that increased offensive role.  That's not uncommon at all. 

If you look at Hield, he has all of the tools to be an outstanding defensive player - solid height, great length, good physical strength, solid athleticism and a very high motor.   I think he has the potential to become a very, very good two-way player.   

Bender's defence looks nice now, but it's easy to play hard defence when you're only playing 18 minutes a night and you have a minimal offensive role. 

Rondo for example was an elite defensive PG when he was younger - it wasn't until the big three started to fade out (and Rondo had to step up to a bigger offensive role) that his defence started to really fall off.  He was arguably the best defensive PG in the NBA for a few years there.

Not saying that Bender's defensive potential is a farce or that he isn't a good defender, just saying that context is important.  It's a lot easier for Bender to play defence for 18 minute a game while taking 3 shots a night, then it is for Hield to play defence for 35 minutes a night while taking 17 shots a game.
cs, on hield, i think the points being made by many posters are not that he is terrible or bad. (and if a poster says that, just ignore it.)

rather, the question is whether hield worth the #3 pick in this draft? here, my opinion is no, he is not worth it. at #6? no brainer, take him unless someone better has dropped.

hield does score and shoot, as you mention. but the rest of his skills are pedestrian (see? i expressly did not say he sucks eggs.  :)  ) his ball handling is mediocre, and even if he improves i see no indication of it being superior. his defense is passable, and might improve. in the small sample i watched, he regularly made questionable decisions on when to drive, when to pass. he is athletic, but overly so.

so, is he terrible? heck no. is he worth the #3 pick? heck no.

i think murray will be the better basketball player and help the celtics more than hield. murry shots the ball very well and also brings better skills to the table. he is the better player, period.

bender? no brainer for me. i have long thought highly of bender's potential and would be willing to roll the dice on him.

dunn? obviously dunn is the better basketball player and will have a better career in the nba, at least to me and many others.

so....i dont say hield stinks or is terrible. instead, i am saying that i see at least 5 players in the draft whom i would prefer and i think will be better.
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Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #103 on: May 19, 2016, 10:03:09 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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All wrong.

http://www.basketballforum.com/sacramento-kings/50512-kings-sign-bojko-mladenov.html

My point here is that trying to cast every obscure European seven footer who can walk and chew gum as the proverbial basketball "renaissance man" with guard skills is in fashion. If you're a scout or especially an agent, it's good business.

However, this often obfuscates the simple fact that you have to be able to play your position first, and everything else is gravy.
That was from 2003 right? I'd hope scouts have come a long way on foreign prospects since then. As well as the fact foreign competition has gotten better as well.

In recent years Vesely is the only true bust from Europe picked in the lottery. Bender is much more solid a prospect than you are willing to admit
Is that what you want with the third pick? A "not a bust"? If Bender turns into an Enes Kanter in terms of production, should we be happy because he's "not a bust"?
I want the best chance to be an All star. I look at it like this, there will be a hidden gem later in the draft, there will be someone else who develops way beyond their perceived ceiling. With the 3rd pick I want to end up with a top 5 player from the draft.
Maybe it's because we know more about the flaws in others games but Hield and Murray and Dunn all have fundamental limitations that make me think they won't end up top 5 talents in this draft. Defence, defence and agility, handles respectively.
For me Bender is scouted as having those fundamentals in his game. A technically sound defender, good shot mechanics, quick, agile feet and a mental makeup that will help him progress. That's what I got from scouting videos and things I've read.
Come workout time it may turn out my views were unfounded and Bender is none of those things. I doubt it but of course it's possible.
You can work on a players body, even James Young managed that. It's harder to teach fundamentals at the NBA level, something Young is also proving! So I choose the guy with the fundamentals and the mental game to improve. That's why I think his floor isn't as low as some think. That's why I think he'll progress as fast or faster than the other prospects at #3

I'm not sure why you feel Hield has fundamental flaws. 

You've listed his defence as a major flaw - it really isn't.  Did you see the type of scoring numbers Hield put up last year?  It's incredibly difficult for any player to put up those kind of scoring numbers AND also be a plus defender at the same time. 

Even in the NBA there are but a handful of guys who can score 25 PPG while also playing high level of defence for 35+ minutes.   In fact Westbrook might be the only one that I can think of - even Lebron is very well known for taking plays off on defence.

From what I have read, Hield was actually a defensive role player when he first entered college (before he exploded as a scorer), but his defence became less consistent with that increased offensive role.  That's not uncommon at all. 

If you look at Hield, he has all of the tools to be an outstanding defensive player - solid height, great length, good physical strength, solid athleticism and a very high motor.   I think he has the potential to become a very, very good two-way player.   

Bender's defence looks nice now, but it's easy to play hard defence when you're only playing 18 minutes a night and you have a minimal offensive role. 

Rondo for example was an elite defensive PG when he was younger - it wasn't until the big three started to fade out (and Rondo had to step up to a bigger offensive role) that his defence started to really fall off.  He was arguably the best defensive PG in the NBA for a few years there.

Not saying that Bender's defensive potential is a farce or that he isn't a good defender, just saying that context is important.  It's a lot easier for Bender to play defence for 18 minute a game while taking 3 shots a night, then it is for Hield to play defence for 35 minutes a night while taking 17 shots a game.

Ok that's a fair point about Hield. He only came on my radar this year so that's all I've seen of him. I'm not sure I can ever be comfortable drafting a 22 year old at 3 but that might be because I can't get away from the idea of potential.

Now I'm about to say something that should not be considered a direct comparison. When Kawhi Leonard came into the league he was also one of those guys who wasn't flashy, had sound fundamentals but pretty much played within his game. I see Bender as the same kind of character. I don't see him reaching the same heights and they play different positions however I see some similarities in that they are both Swiss army knife guys. They have multiple things they can do on the court, multiple ways of impacting a game. They can score, they can defend, they show the intelligence to get out fast on the break or step across as a help defender.

Bender will never be a ball dominant offensive player like so many of the stars we have seen. Stars come in all forms though. With where we are right now it should be easier to develop a guy like Bender than a Hield or a Murray. There are threads developing again with the trade Bradley theme. DA and Stevens are not doing that. They aren't shipping out the most experienced guard on our team for a rookie. Whoever comes in will have a tough time getting into the rotation but Bender has a chance to slot in straight away. The PF spot is open, we have seen that Brad likes to run, he likes to switch. Bender brings those skills.

If he evaluates well in the workouts, everything is moot till then, he fits too well with our future to let him slide. Shooters can be found in FA if we need them. I don't know why DA continues to ignore it but there have been several good options the last few years. Guys like Morrow or Wright. We shouldn't feel pressured to add a shooter in the draft.

Re: Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?
« Reply #104 on: May 19, 2016, 10:23:21 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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rather, the question is whether hield worth the #3 pick in this draft? here, my opinion is no, he is not worth it. at #6? no brainer, take him unless someone better has dropped.

hield does score and shoot, as you mention. but the rest of his skills are pedestrian (see? i expressly did not say he sucks eggs.  :)  ) his ball handling is mediocre, and even if he improves i see no indication of it being superior. his defense is passable, and might improve. in the small sample i watched, he regularly made questionable decisions on when to drive, when to pass. he is athletic, but overly so.

so, is he terrible? heck no. is he worth the #3 pick? heck no.

i think murray will be the better basketball player and help the celtics more than hield. murry shots the ball very well and also brings better skills to the table. he is the better player, period.

bender? no brainer for me. i have long thought highly of bender's potential and would be willing to roll the dice on him.

dunn? obviously dunn is the better basketball player and will have a better career in the nba, at least to me and many others.

so....i dont say hield stinks or is terrible. instead, i am saying that i see at least 5 players in the draft whom i would prefer and i think will be better.

I just don't understand how anybody can see those other guys (aside from Dunn) as being more worthy of a #3 spot then Hield.

Lets start with Murray. 

In terms of skills Murray (like Hield) is a mediocre ball handler and a mediocre passer. He's a good shooter, but doesn't have Hield's "out of the park" range.  Physically he is the same height and weight as Hield, but he lacks Hield's length and quickness.

With his medicore ball handling, mediocre ball athleticism, mediocre length and (comparatively) limited range, how does Murray project to get his shots off against quicker and more physical NBA defenders?  I think he'll struggle to do so unless you run him off a million screens the way we did with Ray Allen once he got older and lost his athleticism. 

How will Murray ever become even "serviceable" as a defensive player?  Unlikely he ever will, because (at 6'5" with a 6'6" wingspan and poor lateral quickness) he just doesn't have the tools to defend even remotely quick shooting guards - never mind switching on to point guards.

He sure as hell isn't going to be able to get to the basket (or finish there) against NBA defence.  If Marcus Smart (who is significantly longer, quicker AND stronger then Murray) struggles to get to the rim, then Murry hasn't got a hope in hell.

All signs point to him becoming a major disappointment and busting out as a three point shooting role player...since I just can't see how anything else in his game could possible translate into the NBA.   

I've already covered Bender, so I won't go any further on him.

Dunn I rate up there with Hield - I think the two are about on part as far as potential goes.  Dunn is a better all-round package no doubt about it, but Demar Derozan is living proof that you do not need to be a good ball handler or passer to become a star in the NBA.  If you can score at an elite level (which Hield definitely can) and hold your own on defence (which Hield has the potential to do) then you can be a star.

Ultimately I still think Dunn is probably a safer pick, but I lean towards Hield for us simply because we REALLY need a deadly shooter / scorer to take pressure off Thomas, and Hield has the potential to become a Korver / Curry calibre shooter and a legit 20 PPG scorer. 

I could find space for Dunn but there are complications in terms of where we would fit him in, and we don't really have a huge need for a guy with his skill set.  Having a guy with his talent certainly wouldn't go astray, and I'd be perfectly happy if we ended up with him, I just think Hield makes a little bit more sense to us. 

It's also important to note just how much Hield has improved over the past 2-3 years.  He's taken a far bigger jump then anybody else I know of from one year to the next, which is a testament to his willingness to recognise his faults and put work into improving them.  That's a huge plus in my eyes that cannot be ignored, because if he improved that much in one year who knows how good he can be after 2 or 3 years under Brad Stevens.

So definitely thrilled with either Dunn or Hield - honestly I'd be pretty much equally stoked with either of those guys. 

Murry for me falls into the Bender category of being a high risk guy with questionable upside. Given the choice between those two guys, I'm honestly not sure which I'd take.  I might actually take Bender over Murray because I really am that worried about Murray becoming a complete bust - versus Bender who I feel should become a solid 3+D big man at the very least.  I see Murray as a guy who might not even crack an NBA rotation 3 years from now (e.g. Fredette), and that scares me. 

« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 11:06:57 AM by crimson_stallion »