Can Someone Emphatically Against Bender Explain Why?

[kozlodoev]

I think the main question with Bender regarding how much of a risk he really is, is not what is his ceiling, which most generally agree is very high , like Dirk or Pau high, but what is his floor? I think his floor is a more aggressive KO, which is not bad at all. That would make drafting him a low risk, high reward choice imo.

I think his floor is a bit different than KO.  I think his floor is what he's doing a lot of right now, which is defensive substitute off the bench. 

He has some similarities to KO in that yes, he's a 7 footer who can shoot threes.  But KO's core value add is his skill on offense as a passing big man in the high post.   Bender has that as part of his upside, but his base core value add is as a defender who can switch on the pick & roll.

He's not going to be defensive substitute in the NBA. Just won't happen.

[Evantime34]

I like Bender, but I can understand the backlash to him being the consensus pick at 3. As a fan it's good to be able to point to past production in order to try to forecast future production. While Bender did produce in the FIBA games when he was younger, his club team production is sorely lacking.

Honestly, I see Bender, Dunn, Murray and Hield as comparable prospects. I trust Danny to pick the best player out of the group and will be confident with whatever decision he makes. If Ainge picks Bender then I will be fine with it.

[mmmmm]

I don't know much about any European basketball league.  That said, I have a tough time understanding how a European coach can routinely bench a guy who is on the verge of greatness in a much higher level of play in the NBA.  What am I missing?  The guy is averaging 2 points and one rebound on a team that I assume is trying to win games in a far inferior league.

LOL - only the tiniest amount of hyperbole there!

He's averaging 5.42 points and 2.69 rebounds in 13.7 minutes per game.

He comes off the bench because he is a scrawny 18 year old kid and the coach has a roster loaded with much older, established veteran players on which he is depending to win games.

None of that means he is on the verge of greatness, of course.

Wow!!!!  5.4 and 2.7 is soooooo much better.  I'm so full of hyperbole despite quoting stats directly from draftexpress.  Shake my mother f'ing head.  Lol.  Those stats still suck.

Tsk-tsk. Language.

Yep, those stats still suck.   Your analysis is deep and full of insight.   Jonathan Ginovy should hire you to work at DraftExpress.

I quoted stats from Givony's website.

LOL - even Jonathan would be the first to point out that they are not a comprehensive source for player stats.   They only have the 10 games from EuroCup and EuroLeague games included on his stats and are missing the 26 actual IBSL games which make up his real season.

Use the DE site for their excellent written and video reports.   Use other sites for stats.
Here, this may help:

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582

It should be telling that, despite the tiny numbers you cited being on the draft express.com site that they still have him ranked #3.   Do you trust their stats?  But you don't trust their informed opinions?   Read their reports.  Watch their vids (keeping in mind that their strength/weakness vids are dated from last November).  They also have a fairly recent interview with him.   

Try to use more than just a few out-of-context numbers to draw your conclusion.

[kozlodoev]

I will just leave this nugget here and ask people whether they can guess which 7-foot tall player was it written about.

Outlook:
Very talented player who could eventually one day develop into an NBA small forward. Has excellent ball-handling skills for his size. Good quick and long first step. Good shooting range and a superb one-on-one player. Likes to face the basket and play outside in. Has some nice and quick post up moves too, but is still a bit too skinny for the big time banging and gets pushed around. Good rebounder and shot blocker. Is quick enough to guard perimeter players.

[Boris Badenov]

I will just leave this nugget here and ask people whether they can guess which 7-foot tall player was it written about.

Outlook:
Very talented player who could eventually one day develop into an NBA small forward. Has excellent ball-handling skills for his size. Good quick and long first step. Good shooting range and a superb one-on-one player. Likes to face the basket and play outside in. Has some nice and quick post up moves too, but is still a bit too skinny for the big time banging and gets pushed around. Good rebounder and shot blocker. Is quick enough to guard perimeter players.

Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Andrea Bargnani, or Kevin Durant.

[A Future of Stevens]

Hedo turkogolu? No, I remember omri cassipi was a big deal coming out, I vote omri, wait they aren't 7 foot tall, nevermid

[mmmmm]

I think the main question with Bender regarding how much of a risk he really is, is not what is his ceiling, which most generally agree is very high , like Dirk or Pau high, but what is his floor? I think his floor is a more aggressive KO, which is not bad at all. That would make drafting him a low risk, high reward choice imo.

I think his floor is a bit different than KO.  I think his floor is what he's doing a lot of right now, which is defensive substitute off the bench. 

He has some similarities to KO in that yes, he's a 7 footer who can shoot threes.  But KO's core value add is his skill on offense as a passing big man in the high post.   Bender has that as part of his upside, but his base core value add is as a defender who can switch on the pick & roll.

He's not going to be defensive substitute in the NBA. Just won't happen.

Asserted as an absolute fact.  The voice of god.  Thank you, Pope Kozlodoev.

I wish I could see the future with such absolute divine clarity.

To be honest, certainly, it may not happen.  Everything is just projection and speculation.  I'm not claiming to know anything for certain about how he'll turn out.   I've even stated clearly I'm not certain he's worth taking #3 over the alternatives.    But I've at least tried to offer the evidence supporting my opinions.  What have you offered to support yours?

[knuckleballer]

I don't know much about any European basketball league.  That said, I have a tough time understanding how a European coach can routinely bench a guy who is on the verge of greatness in a much higher level of play in the NBA.  What am I missing?  The guy is averaging 2 points and one rebound on a team that I assume is trying to win games in a far inferior league.

LOL - only the tiniest amount of hyperbole there!

He's averaging 5.42 points and 2.69 rebounds in 13.7 minutes per game.

He comes off the bench because he is a scrawny 18 year old kid and the coach has a roster loaded with much older, established veteran players on which he is depending to win games.

None of that means he is on the verge of greatness, of course.

Wow!!!!  5.4 and 2.7 is soooooo much better.  I'm so full of hyperbole despite quoting stats directly from draftexpress.  Shake my mother f'ing head.  Lol.  Those stats still suck.

Tsk-tsk. Language.

Yep, those stats still suck.   Your analysis is deep and full of insight.   Jonathan Ginovy should hire you to work at DraftExpress.

I quoted stats from Givony's website.

LOL - even Jonathan would be the first to point out that they are not a comprehensive source for player stats.   They only have the 10 games from EuroCup and EuroLeague games included on his stats and are missing the 26 actual IBSL games which make up his real season.

Use the DE site for their excellent written and video reports.   Use other sites for stats.
Here, this may help:

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582

It should be telling that, despite the tiny numbers you cited being on the draft express.com site that they still have him ranked #3.   Do you trust their stats?  But you don't trust their informed opinions?   Read their reports.  Watch their vids (keeping in mind that their strength/weakness vids are dated from last November).  They also have a fairly recent interview with him.   

Try to use more than just a few out-of-context numbers to draw your conclusion.

I try to take information from all these sites and learn from them.  Do you really think Bender has impressive stats? 

[kozlodoev]

All wrong.

http://www.basketballforum.com/sacramento-kings/50512-kings-sign-bojko-mladenov.html

My point here is that trying to cast every obscure European seven footer who can walk and chew gum as the proverbial basketball "renaissance man" with guard skills is in fashion. If you're a scout or especially an agent, it's good business.

However, this often obfuscates the simple fact that you have to be able to play your position first, and everything else is gravy.

[Spilling Green Dye]

Here's why:  His game, based upon what I've seen, will not translate well to the NBA... even if he were to gain muscle.

Shooting:  I think Kelly Olynyk is a faster shooter and dribbler, and Kelly is thus far unable to get separation for a clean shot.  All too often Kelly has a very nice pump fake, and where a normally fast player could make a one or two step move (or put up a shot very quickly w/o dribbling), Kelly slowly drives and the defenders are able to get back into position... leading to a Kelly pass.  The same goes for Jerekbo.  Bender's form does not look as good as Kelly's either, so simply taking more shots in the gym will not improve any of this.

Rebounding:  His form is poor in this category.  He fails to block out, and when he does he finds himself directly under the hoop or out-muscled by guys.  Players in the NBA will kill him around the hoop in rebounding.

Speed: Players in the NBA will get out on a fast break before Bender can regroup.  He's probably on the slow end of 7 footers, despite weighing some 40lbs less.

Mismatch:  We like to think of him as a talented 7 footer who can create mismatches on the perimeter, but he's just as likely to create a mismatch against himself (bigger/stronger/faster players)

Production:  As others have highlighted, he hasn't produced much yet.  While the players in his league are talented, they don't appear to be nearly as fast or as strong as the players in the NBA.


He has some attributes I like, but a #3 pick in the draft should come with a hell of a lot more than what Bender is bringing to the table.

[hwangjini_1]

I will just leave this nugget here and ask people whether they can guess which 7-foot tall player was it written about.

Outlook:
Very talented player who could eventually one day develop into an NBA small forward. Has excellent ball-handling skills for his size. Good quick and long first step. Good shooting range and a superb one-on-one player. Likes to face the basket and play outside in. Has some nice and quick post up moves too, but is still a bit too skinny for the big time banging and gets pushed around. Good rebounder and shot blocker. Is quick enough to guard perimeter players.

well, i am not sure whom this refers to, but i know it is not bender.

[Rondo9]

All wrong.

http://www.basketballforum.com/sacramento-kings/50512-kings-sign-bojko-mladenov.html

My point here is that trying to cast every obscure European seven footer who can walk and chew gum as the proverbial basketball "renaissance man" with guard skills is in fashion. If you're a scout or especially an agent, it's good business.

However, this often obfuscates the simple fact that you have to be able to play your position first, and everything else is gravy.

Except there's one more thing that you haven't mentioned: " I do not like his attitude, lazy even from the first session of the camp. Often had to ask twice how to run the drill, try to make an impression with coaches but you can clearly understand it was a fake."

Has Bender been criticized for having a bad attitude?

[TwinTower14]

All wrong.

http://www.basketballforum.com/sacramento-kings/50512-kings-sign-bojko-mladenov.html

My point here is that trying to cast every obscure European seven footer who can walk and chew gum as the proverbial basketball "renaissance man" with guard skills is in fashion. If you're a scout or especially an agent, it's good business.

However, this often obfuscates the simple fact that you have to be able to play your position first, and everything else is gravy.

Except there's one more thing that you haven't mentioned: " I do not like his attitude, lazy even from the first session of the camp. Often had to ask twice how to run the drill, try to make an impression with coaches but you can clearly understand it was a fake."

Has Bender been criticized for having a bad attitude?

The opposite. Draft express has a good article. They were very impressed with his toughness and work ethic. I like Bender, but I am firmly in the Murray camp.

[BornReady]

I'm not against him
But it's hard to argue his case as we haven't seen much of him and he hasn't produced the stats overseas
Ainge will get a look during workouts

[Tr1boy]

All wrong.

http://www.basketballforum.com/sacramento-kings/50512-kings-sign-bojko-mladenov.html

My point here is that trying to cast every obscure European seven footer who can walk and chew gum as the proverbial basketball "renaissance man" with guard skills is in fashion. If you're a scout or especially an agent, it's good business.

However, this often obfuscates the simple fact that you have to be able to play your position first, and everything else is gravy.

Exactly .  He is not a sf.

He is not ready.