Author Topic: Vlade Wants To Keep DeMarcus Cousins But Willing To Test Market For First Time  (Read 19785 times)

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Offline TheSundanceKid

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I'm not so sure we have an appealing offer for Vlade.   They are moving into a new arena and aren't going to want the, 'start over and go young' package.    Something centered on the BKL pick probably doesn't get it done.
I do think it might take a third team that wants some draft picks and would give up a pretty good player.  That said, there is no real way for Boston to usurp an offer from the Lakers or Sixers if they really want Cousins unless the BKN ends up #1 (maybe #2) though even then the Sixers could still jump it by just offering another asset.

I don't know, I think Sacramento have a very big decision to make this summer. Despite the terrible way the franchise has been run the last few years they have an opportunity this summer to hit restart and get some very high quality picks over the next 2 years. If our package included the BRK 16 + 18 picks then they would have 5 very likely top 10 picks over the next 3 years:

2016: BRK 16 + SAC 16 (currently 3 + 8 )
2017: Worse of SAC and PHI picks (If Sacramento are rebuilding then I still think this is a top 5 pick)
2018: BRK 18 + SAC 18

In 2019 their pick goes to PHI unprotected. So that's 3 years of a darn good rebuild, built around a young exciting team in a new arena. I could see the fan base buying into that.

Next year they could have a roster headlined by Jaylen Brown, Kris Dunn, WCS, McLemore. Then add someone like Josh Jackson in 2017 and two top 10 prospects in 2018.

Just like we made a decision at the trade deadline in 2015 to push for the playoffs to define ourselves, SAC will have to choose this summer.

Offline crimson_stallion

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I think we need to take a look at this from Sacramento's point of view.

If they were to get rid of Cousins, what would they want in return?

Firstly, it's already been put out there that they were willing to trade Rudy Gay during the season, and that their ask in return was a perimeter defender and an outside shooting big.  We can probably safely assume they are still looking for those pieces.

Secondly, Rondo is likely to bolt in free agency - especially if Cousins is traded.  With Both Cousins and Rondo gone, there would likely be little point in the Kings trying to be competitive...I'd assume they would go for an full on rebuild. 

If they go for a full on rebuild, then adding the Brooklyn pick to their own would give them two top 10 picks - the Nets pick (projecfted #3) and their own (projected #8).  Hard to imagine a better position then that for a team looking to rebuild and start over.

So lets say we offer them '16 Brk 1st + '18 Brk 1st + Smart + Olynyk

The Kings end up moving forward with:

1) Smart (a young perimeter defender and a starting PG to replace Rondo)
2) McLemore (a young and talented wing scorer)
3) Olynyk (a young and skilled 7 footer who can stretch the floor)
3) Willie Cauley Stein (a young and skilled defensive center)
4) Two top 10 picks in 2016
5) A potential top 10 pick in 2018

That's a pretty [dang] good place to start for a team looking to rebuild. 

They could use the '16 pick to add Bender + Hield, Brown + Poetlyl, Murray + Ellenson, etc.  Add either of those two man combo's to the existing prospects (Smart, McLemore, Olynyk, WCS) and you have one hell of a talented young team with nowhere to go but up...

Then on top of that they still have the 2018 pick too. 

Some possible combinations they could end up with:

DarrenCollison / Marcus Smart
Buddy Hield / Marco Belinelli
Rudy Gay / Ben McLemore
Dragan Bender / Kelly Olynyk
Willie Cauley-Stein / Kosta Koufos

Darren Collison / Marcus Smart
Ben McLemore / Marco Belinelli
Jalen Brown / Caron Butler
Rudy Gay / Kelly Olynyk / Henry Ellenson
Willie Cauley-Stein / Koufos

Darren Collison / Marcus Smart
Jamal Murray / Ben McLemore
Jalen Brown / Caron Butler
Rudy Gay / Kelly Olynyk
Willie Cauley-Stein / Kosta Koufos

Darren Collison / Marcus Smart
Jamal Murray / Ben McLemore
Rudy Gay / Caron Butler
Willie Cauley-Stein / Kelly Olynyk
Kosta Koufos / Jakob Poeltl

The possibilities really are endless for Sacramento with all that talent.  If they're smart about it, they can start fresh and be back to competing again in no time.

For us, we:

1) Add Cousins to our current core (should make us an instant contender in the East)
2) Retain two 1st this year (Mavs and our own)
3) Cap space to sign a max contract free agent (which should be easier wiousins)
4) Retain the right to swap picks with Brk in 2017 (so we still keep a shot at a big star prospect)

Pretty good scenario for both teams I think.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2016, 10:22:38 AM by crimson_stallion »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I think they were looking for outside shooting and perimeter D to complement Cousins so I don't think you have to provide them in a trade for him. I'd accept your trade for him though I'm reluctant to give up Smart, I really value his awareness on defence, I don't think it is matched by anyone on the team.

As I've said before I'd also like to match his salary if I could so that we still have cap space to sign a max FA to play alongside him. SO I'd hope the end result was something close to:

Boston: Cousins, Belinelli

Sacramento: BRK 16, BRK 18, KO, Amir, Jonas + either some other picks or Rozier and Young

Sacramento could use Amir + Jonas to flip to a team looking to create double max FA room for extra assets as well.

Also I don't buy into the idea that LA or Philly have a better shot at him if they want to. Philly must know that the way forward is through incremental improvement not throwing all the eggs into a Cousins basket too soon. LA could offer everything I guess but then you're left basically being what Sacramento have been the last few years and that doesn't bode well...

Offline crimson_stallion

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Id rather give them less players and take the salary hit i think.  I really don't have an issue giving up Smart.  He's a pretty limited player, amd while i love his passion/heart I dont think his ceiling is all that high.

I agree with you about other teams. We are in a unique position because we are a playoff team who wants to win now, yet we are also loaded with assets.  We're pretty much one or two stars away from being a contender, so we can afford to sacrifice future assets if it brings us immediate talent.

Philly and LA are in no such position.  Both have garnahe teams highlighted by two or three good prospects and some valuable picks.  They are entirely dependant on those picks and prospects to build a team, since without those assets theu are a team of scraps going nowhere.

For example, lets say Philly trades #1 and Okafor to Sacramemto for Cousins.  That leaves them with Cousins, Embiid, Noel, and not a whole lot more. 

Philly are in a bad situation because their three most valuable (correction: their only) prospects are all pure centers.  So unless they're trading to a team that has a desperate lack of centers, they can't make an offer of any real value without including their 2016 pick...the pick that is pretty much their ticket to a non-center prospect.

Lets say they trade Okafor + #1 for Cousins...now their core is Embiid+Noel+Cousins - three centers all over again. 

It really doesn't work unless they keep their pick, and there's probably no point in the kings trading for Okafor+Noel given that they already have Kufos and WCS...makes no sense to have three centers.

Lakers situation is abit better.  If they land Simmons they already habe Randle at PF, so they could trade simmons to the Kings for Cousins.  Then they could move forward eith Russell, Clarkson, Randle and Cousins. 

But would simmons/ingram alone be enough for the Kings to move Cousins?  Would one prospect be more valuable to them then, say, Smart + Bender/Hield + the 2018 Nets pick?

I think Boston's offer is more attractive, so Lakers Would probably need to throw in another prospect.  Either Russell, Clarkson or Randle.  Would they ne willing to do that?

The other problem For the Lakers It's that at this stage their pick isn't guaranteed.  If the Lakers pick falls outside the top 3, Philly gets it.  In that case the Lakers arw likely out of the running for Cousins, because they would need to offer Russell and Randle, which i doubt theyd do.

Boston is in a unique position because were so deep that we cam afford to give up our top 3 projected pick AND another future projected lottery pick AND a promising young player or two...and still have a competitive team left over.

Cousins is a loyal guy.  He's stuck by Sacramemto, of all teams.  If he's sent to Boston amd gets a taste of winning and a taste of the  environment, he won't leave.  He'll almost certainly re-sign when the contract ends.

If he gets forced to. LA or Philly, unlikely he sticks around another losing situation.

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I understand your position on Smart. I guess I look at it this way; if we get Cousins then where does that leave Sully and Amir? You aren't going to play either of them alongside Cousins so one of them will be a backup and the other is expendable. The trade would be on draft night so Sully's status is still unknown, and I have us giving up KO in the deal as well.
So would you rather get a more long term asset in Sully but take he risk he leaves or stick with Amir? I can see the argument for both sides.
I'd quite like to be able to pick up a stretch 4 in FA to go alongside Cousins and keep enough cap space to re-sign Turner and have the cap space to chase Durant in 2017 when I think he'll be more gettable. So to me that makes it worth moving Amir, but there are obvious risks involved in that

Offline LooseCannon

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As a starting point in negotiations, Divac should ask the Celtics for Smart, Olynyk, Crowder, Nets 2016, Net/Celtics 2017 pick swap, Nets 2018, and maybe a bit more.

Think about this: if Ainge were the Sacramento GM, what would he be asking for?

Maybe. But let's also remember that Cousins not only has a huge reputation as a locker room cancer, he's also been a loser all his career.

I think some people equate this with Kevin Garnett. But despite KG's alleged underachievement with the Wolves, he has still taken them to a Conference Final and was routinely in the playoffs.

There's a quite distinct possibility that Cousins ends up another Derrick Coleman. So I'd give up a lot, but there is reason to believe Divac can't demand the world for him.

You do realize how negotiations work, right?  Sacramento should start out by asking for more than the minimum that they are willing to accept, especially from a team with a lot of assets.  Take the most generous offer that a poster in this thread is willing to trade for Cousins.  Divac should start out by asking for at least two first-round picks (or equivalent value) more than that offer.

This isn't often a wise negotiating strategy, in my opinion.  If one side asks for the moon in negotiations, it can lead to poisoning the talks from the beginning, as the other side feels like it's time is being wasted. This style can result in a lowball counter-offer, or worse, no continued discussions at all.

Weren't you the guy who once wanted to trade everything for Cousins?

If superstars are a rare commodity and Cousins is a superstar, then the Kings should treat trade negotiations like it is a severe sellers' market.  And if you are negotiating with Ainge, you need to show some strength right off the bat.  Ainge is already known to be the kind of guy who is going to offer a lowball counter.  You need to test him to see if he will blink.

Every negotiating involves receiving fair value without blinking. Asking for wild fantasy returns in trades is counterproductive however. The idea of taking the most pro-Kings proposal and then adding two more #1s to it would be a terrible starting point. It's not a position of strength, it's a position of stupidity.

Starting a negotiation by offering a fair compromise is stupid when there is a real chance that you opponent will overpay.

I'm going to assume that negotiating isn't something you do in your job very often. I literally do it every single day.

You don't start with your best offer, obviously, but starting with something wildly unrealistic is counterproductive, and gets in the way of actually reaching resolution.

It depends on what your goals are.  The Kings are probably not interested in trading Cousins unless it is a massive win.  Their priority is not getting a deal done.

There is a cognitive bias called anchoring.  The piece of information is given too much weight and influences how people adjust based on future information.  The higher your initial offer, the higher the range of perceived fair value for some weak-minded negotiating opponents.  The principle is the same as Ainge continually floating unrealistic lowball offers that have no chance of being accepted.  He's trying to grind down the view of what the other party considers fair value.  It probably won't work, but you should try just in case a team is stupid like the Nets. 

It's like a prosecutor overcharging to make a harsh plea deal seem more reasonable.  It's like setting the non-sale retail price kind of high to make a half-off sale seem reasonable.
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Offline D Dub

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I think we need to take a look at this from Sacramento's point of view.

If they were to get rid of Cousins, what would they want in return?

Firstly, it's already been put out there that they were willing to trade Rudy Gay during the season, and that their ask in return was a perimeter defender and an outside shooting big.  We can probably safely assume they are still looking for those pieces.

Secondly, Rondo is likely to bolt in free agency - especially if Cousins is traded.  With Both Cousins and Rondo gone, there would likely be little point in the Kings trying to be competitive...I'd assume they would go for an full on rebuild. 

If they go for a full on rebuild, then adding the Brooklyn pick to their own would give them two top 10 picks - the Nets pick (projecfted #3) and their own (projected #8).  Hard to imagine a better position then that for a team looking to rebuild and start over.

So lets say we offer them '16 Brk 1st + '18 Brk 1st + Smart + Olynyk

The Kings end up moving forward with:

1) Smart (a young perimeter defender and a starting PG to replace Rondo)
2) McLemore (a young and talented wing scorer)
3) Olynyk (a young and skilled 7 footer who can stretch the floor)
3) Willie Cauley Stein (a young and skilled defensive center)
4) Two top 10 picks in 2016
5) A potential top 10 pick in 2018

That's a pretty [dang] good place to start for a team looking to rebuild. 

They could use the '16 pick to add Bender + Hield, Brown + Poetlyl, Murray + Ellenson, etc.  Add either of those two man combo's to the existing prospects (Smart, McLemore, Olynyk, WCS) and you have one hell of a talented young team with nowhere to go but up...

Then on top of that they still have the 2018 pick too. 

Some possible combinations they could end up with:

DarrenCollison / Marcus Smart
Buddy Hield / Marco Belinelli
Rudy Gay / Ben McLemore
Dragan Bender / Kelly Olynyk
Willie Cauley-Stein / Kosta Koufos

Darren Collison / Marcus Smart
Ben McLemore / Marco Belinelli
Jalen Brown / Caron Butler
Rudy Gay / Kelly Olynyk / Henry Ellenson
Willie Cauley-Stein / Koufos

Darren Collison / Marcus Smart
Jamal Murray / Ben McLemore
Jalen Brown / Caron Butler
Rudy Gay / Kelly Olynyk
Willie Cauley-Stein / Kosta Koufos

Darren Collison / Marcus Smart
Jamal Murray / Ben McLemore
Rudy Gay / Caron Butler
Willie Cauley-Stein / Kelly Olynyk
Kosta Koufos / Jakob Poeltl

The possibilities really are endless for Sacramento with all that talent.  If they're smart about it, they can start fresh and be back to competing again in no time.

For us, we:

1) Add Cousins to our current core (should make us an instant contender in the East)
2) Retain two 1st this year (Mavs and our own)
3) Cap space to sign a max contract free agent (which should be easier wiousins)
4) Retain the right to swap picks with Brk in 2017 (so we still keep a shot at a big star prospect)

Pretty good scenario for both teams I think.

I think your offer is very reasonable, fair for both teams.  But the exercise of looking through Vlade's lens is an interesting one.   That city fought very hard to keep the team in town, ultimate promising a new stadium.  Now, they are absolutely going to need to fill the seats.   

Most in Sac have soured on Cuz, to the point where he isn't really a draw.   Also, they've been rebuilding since the Webber era.   I don't think anyone tied to that organization is getting excited about more lotto picks.   If I'm Vlade, I want legit players back in return.    Specifically, someone who can be the new face of the franchise and generate some positive energy around the team.  That's not something they've had in over a decade.   Remember when Arco was the loudest arena in the league?   I'm sure Vlade does.

If I'm him, I'm looking at packages like this--

Butler / McDermott
Olidipo / Vucavic
Jabari / Monroe
Love
Bledsoe / Booker

Before I move down a tier to the likes of Boston, Philly and to a lesser extent, LA.   Of those three, I feel Boston has the advantage because Cousins agent is going to do everything possible to keep him out of Philly.    Hinkie or not, they are still the biggest grease fire in the league.  With LA, I just don't think any team trades for Russell after that stunt he pulled.   Talk about a chemistry killer.   Besides, for a point, he's rather slow and has poor handles.   Size and shooting yes, but he's already been spoiled on bad defense.   Randle?  Meh.   Clarkson, okay but what else?    Not much there, really.   

Long story short, I don't think we have much of a chance to land him, unless a third team pities us and helps out.   In that scenario, I don't see much incentives for said third team.   

Honestly, I think if we make a big trade, it's most likely for Carmelo.   They need picks to rebuild around the Zinger.


Offline TheSundanceKid

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D Dub, of those suggested packages I just see Sac having the same problem for longer. Not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to see a way out. They need to cash in on Cousins while they can and these next few years are a great opportunity to rebuild properly for them. They still need a GM and once they do the organisational structure should be vastly improved.

As for Carmelo, I would not want to be trading a BRK pick for him. If we could get him without them then sure but I don't see it as very likely

Offline crimson_stallion

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I understand your position on Smart. I guess I look at it this way; if we get Cousins then where does that leave Sully and Amir? You aren't going to play either of them alongside Cousins so one of them will be a backup and the other is expendable.

Actually, I'd be quite happy playing Amir alongside Cousins.

Cousins is a dominant inside scorer but he's also very confident taking the three these days, so he gives us a legitimate inside/outside threat.  Combine that with his ability to rebound and defend the paint, and he's a pretty easy guy to pair with.

The perfect compliment for Cousins I think would be a fairly mobile, high motor, defensive minded PF who doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective - Amir sounds pretty close to perfect.  Amir is a very good offensive rebounder, an excellent finisher around the basket, a good passer, and a very good interior defender who can also switch on the P&R.  The only time he really struggles defensively is against really strong, physical bigs - and Cousins can take that guy.

I'm not as comfortable with Sully + Cousins because both guys are relatively slow moving and neither is really equipped to handle the quicker bigs.  Also both are known for being absent minded occasionally on defence. 

I'd be ok starting Cousins/Amir, and bringing either Jerebko/Sully, Olynyk/Sully or Mickey/Sully of the bench.  I'd be perfectly OK with that.


The trade would be on draft night so Sully's status is still unknown, and I have us giving up KO in the deal as well.
So would you rather get a more long term asset in Sully but take he risk he leaves or stick with Amir? I can see the argument for both sides.

We really don't have any risk of Sully leaving.  He's a restricted free agent, so if we REALLY want to we can bring him back, and we can go over the cap to do it.

I'd probably have the conversation with Sully's agent, see what type of money he's going to be looking for.  If it seems perfectly clear that he isn't willing to return for less then $10M-$12M a year, then I'd take up the option on Amir and bring him back.  He's a better fit next to Cousins (in terms of play style and attitude) and could serve as a nice veteran leader - whereas Sully would likely either be a poor influence on Cousins, or else would just frustrate him with his inconsistency.

If Sully is willing to sign up early (like Bradley / Crowder did) for a $8M a year or so, then I'd consider bringing Sully back as a back up big.  I wouldn't bet on that happening though.  I think Sully believes that he is more desirable then he actually is, and so I could see him refusing to sign up on the cheap and holding out for a starting role and bigger payday on another team.

I'd rather commit to Amir, who I think is probably more loyal and more likely to accept whatever role he is given moving forward. 

 
I'd quite like to be able to pick up a stretch 4 in FA to go alongside Cousins and keep enough cap space to re-sign Turner and have the cap space to chase Durant in 2017 when I think he'll be more gettable. So to me that makes it worth moving Amir, but there are obvious risks involved in that

Well Amir only has one more year, so even if we pick up his option, his salary would still come off the books after the 2016 season - leaving Boston free to chase Durant.

This year if Boston lets Sully and Zeller walk, then I think we'd still have the cap space to re-sign Turner and sign a stretch four (maybe Batum?).  There is also the option of adding a stretch big via the draft using the Mavs pick. 

Offline TheSundanceKid

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TP Crimson, great post. You've convinced me.  Still not averse to including the salary if that's what gets the deal over the hump but what you're saying makes complete sense, I'd now be very happy to use the cap space to sign Cousins.

Of course now that I'm getting invested in it I'll inevitably be let down by the Kings asking for Thomas and Crowder and the Brooklyn pick in return!

Offline Smart457

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I emailed the Celtics to tell them if they trade for Cousins that I will not purchase tickets next year.

I suggest anyone who dislikes Cousin's attitude as much as I do to email the Celtics.
I have got about 40 other people to send similar emails. If you feel the same way please email the Celtics and talk to your ticket representative as well.


Offline Tr1boy

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Sac will trade him for a huge return. 

I would Lakers before but with Walton now hired , not sure anymore

Still a good chance the Nuggets take action

Their 1st(6-8),  Faried, jokic, Garry Harris, future 1st for cousins

Offline Smart457

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Sac will trade him for a huge return. 

I would Lakers before but with Walton now hired , not sure anymore

Still a good chance the Nuggets take action

Their 1st(6-8),  Faried, jokic, Garry Harris, future 1st for cousins
Enail the Celtics and tell them to let the Lakers deal with that head case

Online Roy H.

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I emailed the Celtics to tell them if they trade for Cousins that I will not purchase tickets next year.

I suggest anyone who dislikes Cousin's attitude as much as I do to email the Celtics.
I have got about 40 other people to send similar emails. If you feel the same way please email the Celtics and talk to your ticket representative as well.

I'm sure the front office will take those 41 requests (that they never see) very seriously. It just seems like a waste of your time, emailing the team and asking them not to improve the franchise.


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Offline Tr1boy

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Celtics are in now way going to take action

IT and cousins didnt jive before and won't now. 

Only coach it seems like that can get through /work with cousins is Mike Malone

You screw up the new coach with cousins, you will get half in return for Cousins than you should.   Sac is at the end of the line with coach hiring imo.  You got to think the New coach comes ahead of cousins now