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Author Topic: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.  (Read 13412 times)

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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #30 on: March 28, 2016, 05:13:19 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Quote from: max215 on March 28, 2016, 05:05:53 PM
Quote from: triboy16f on March 28, 2016, 05:01:11 PM
Quote from: Boris Badenov on March 28, 2016, 04:59:33 PM
Not to be a downer but with the 4th lottery slot it makes more sense to assume we have the 5th pick. We'd have a 35% chance of getting that pick but only a 10% chance at pick 4.

In fact, with the quirks of the lottery system at the 4th lottery slot the #4 pick is the LEAST likely outcome in the top 6. We are more likely to end up at 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6 than 4th.

can you explain? Nets have the 4th worst record in the league right now.

Meaning they have the fourth best odds in the lottery, which is conducted for picks 1-3. The team with the 4th best odds only has a 9.9% chance at the 4th pick, but an 11.9% chance at the 1st pick, 12.6% at the 2nd, and 13.3% at the 3rd. The most likely outcome (35.1%) is that the pick winds up 5th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

So which team has the best chance the 4th pick? the team with the 3rd worst record?
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #31 on: March 28, 2016, 05:20:48 PM »

Offline max215

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Quote from: triboy16f on March 28, 2016, 05:13:19 PM
Quote from: max215 on March 28, 2016, 05:05:53 PM
Quote from: triboy16f on March 28, 2016, 05:01:11 PM
Quote from: Boris Badenov on March 28, 2016, 04:59:33 PM
Not to be a downer but with the 4th lottery slot it makes more sense to assume we have the 5th pick. We'd have a 35% chance of getting that pick but only a 10% chance at pick 4.

In fact, with the quirks of the lottery system at the 4th lottery slot the #4 pick is the LEAST likely outcome in the top 6. We are more likely to end up at 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6 than 4th.

can you explain? Nets have the 4th worst record in the league right now.

Meaning they have the fourth best odds in the lottery, which is conducted for picks 1-3. The team with the 4th best odds only has a 9.9% chance at the 4th pick, but an 11.9% chance at the 1st pick, 12.6% at the 2nd, and 13.3% at the 3rd. The most likely outcome (35.1%) is that the pick winds up 5th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

So which team has the best chance the 4th pick? the team with the 3rd worst record?

The team with the #1 odds has a 35.7% chance at the 4th pick, which is the highest of any one team. While 4th is the most likely individual pick for the team with the best odds, it is still much more likely (64.3%) that the team picks somewhere in the top 3.
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #32 on: March 28, 2016, 05:49:49 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Based on the numbers Boris quoted, the 4th worst record actually has a better chance (about 47-48%) of ending up 4th or better than ending up with the 5th pick.

Of course, the chances of getting 5th, 6th, or 7th is about 52%

I think it's better to think of it is as more or less a coin flip between picking on the edge of the top 5, or picking in the top 3.


Which means, for me, that to manage my own expectations I'll just go ahead and assume we're picking 5th or 6th, meaning our best option is likely to be Jakob Poeltl, Jamal Murray, or Henry Ellenson.

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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #33 on: March 28, 2016, 06:06:29 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I was joking a week ago that Hield was going to be the guy who we all fell in love with and who then promptly rose out of our range.

(This has happened to me with Aaron Gordon and CJ McCollum in recent years).

I didn't really think it would happen <snif>.

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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #34 on: March 28, 2016, 06:08:10 PM »

Offline tomrod

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https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/714524132570832897

Guys are choosing to declare, getting exciting.

This guy Bembry is interesting, I think he compliments our squad great. A fairly athletic 3 that can shoot.
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #35 on: March 28, 2016, 06:08:29 PM »

Offline The Rondo Show

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4. Bender (if No. 3 passes), Brown or Dunn

12. Skal or Rabb

23. Taurean Prince (I hope he falls)

31. DeAndre Bembry   

35. Prince Ibeh

After that stash
« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 06:24:06 PM by The Rondo Show »
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #36 on: March 28, 2016, 08:15:11 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Quote from: Boris Badenov on March 28, 2016, 06:06:29 PM
I was joking a week ago that Hield was going to be the guy who we all fell in love with and who then promptly rose out of our range.

(This has happened to me with Aaron Gordon and CJ McCollum in recent years).

I didn't really think it would happen <snif>.

Yeah :-\

It totally happened to me with Aaron Gordon.  I was pretty bummed by that.
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #37 on: March 28, 2016, 08:20:33 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Quote from: PhoSita on March 28, 2016, 08:15:11 PM
Quote from: Boris Badenov on March 28, 2016, 06:06:29 PM
I was joking a week ago that Hield was going to be the guy who we all fell in love with and who then promptly rose out of our range.

(This has happened to me with Aaron Gordon and CJ McCollum in recent years).

I didn't really think it would happen <snif>.

Yeah :-\

It totally happened to me with Aaron Gordon.  I was pretty bummed by that.

aaron gordon would of been a sweet pick =[
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #38 on: March 28, 2016, 08:57:03 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I'm not at all disappointed we missed out on Gordon.  I'm still not much (if any) higher on him now then I was on draft day.  As far as I can see his ceiling is a poor man's Thadeus Young.

Not especially intrigued. 
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #39 on: March 28, 2016, 09:01:45 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Quote from: crimson_stallion on March 28, 2016, 08:57:03 PM
I'm not at all disappointed we missed out on Gordon.  I'm still not much (if any) higher on him now then I was on draft day.  As far as I can see his ceiling is a poor man's Thadeus Young.

Not especially intrigued.

You must be jokin
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #40 on: March 28, 2016, 09:16:58 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Quote from: triboy16f on March 28, 2016, 09:01:45 PM
Quote from: crimson_stallion on March 28, 2016, 08:57:03 PM
I'm not at all disappointed we missed out on Gordon.  I'm still not much (if any) higher on him now then I was on draft day.  As far as I can see his ceiling is a poor man's Thadeus Young.

Not especially intrigued.

You must be jokin

Yeah I think in a re-draft he could very well go #2.

He's a good two-way player already and he's almost a year and a half younger than Smart.
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #41 on: March 28, 2016, 09:22:37 PM »

Offline TheTruth

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Parker goes 2nd. Easy pick there.

Exum may end up being the guy at 3. That guy has incredible quickness with amazing handles.
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #42 on: March 28, 2016, 09:26:21 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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Yeah too bad that the Celtics got Marcus Smart, what a horrible player.  ;)
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #43 on: March 28, 2016, 09:34:33 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Quote from: triboy16f on March 28, 2016, 09:01:45 PM
Quote from: crimson_stallion on March 28, 2016, 08:57:03 PM
I'm not at all disappointed we missed out on Gordon.  I'm still not much (if any) higher on him now then I was on draft day.  As far as I can see his ceiling is a poor man's Thadeus Young.

Not especially intrigued.

You must be jokin

Why must I be "jokin"?

When I've watched him play I see "role player" written all over him.  In fact I see a lot of Amir Johnson in him, just minus the toughness.  I don't see him looking like anything resembling a transcendent player.  I just don't see the skill set for him to ever be a special player.

Not denying he looks better than Smart right now, but he's not somebody I am going to cry over missing out on. 
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Re: CB mock draft. Pick 4th to 35th.
« Reply #44 on: March 28, 2016, 09:38:44 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Quote from: crimson_stallion on March 28, 2016, 09:34:33 PM
Quote from: triboy16f on March 28, 2016, 09:01:45 PM
Quote from: crimson_stallion on March 28, 2016, 08:57:03 PM
I'm not at all disappointed we missed out on Gordon.  I'm still not much (if any) higher on him now then I was on draft day.  As far as I can see his ceiling is a poor man's Thadeus Young.

Not especially intrigued.

You must be jokin

Why must I be "jokin"?

When I've watched him play I see "role player" written all over him.  In fact I see a lot of Amir Johnson in him, just minus the toughness.  I don't see him looking like anything resembling a transcendent player.  I just don't see the skill set for him to ever be a special player.

Not denying he looks better than Smart right now, but he's not somebody I am going to cry over missing out on.

You are missing the details. They are still the young team alao. Aaron Gordon has top level explosiveness, IQ and motor. He does alot more than shows up in stats
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